Oil Updates – crude nudges up after Russia-Ukraine tensions escalate
Updated 18 November 2024
Reuters
SINGAPORE: Oil prices edged up on Monday after fighting between Russia and Ukraine intensified over the weekend, although concerns about fuel demand in China, the world’s second-largest consumer, and forecasts of a global oil surplus weighed on markets.
Brent crude futures gained 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $71.33 a barrel by 8:02 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $67.20 a barrel, up 18 cents, or 0.3 percent.
Russia unleashed its largest air strike on Ukraine in almost three months on Sunday, causing severe damage to Ukraine’s power system.
In a significant reversal of Washington’s policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, President Joe Biden’s administration has allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, two US officials and a source familiar with the decision said on Sunday.
There was no immediate response from the Kremlin, which has warned that it would see a move to loosen the limits on Ukraine’s use of US weapons as a major escalation.
“Biden allowing Ukraine to strike Russian forces around Kursk with long-range missiles might see a geopolitical bid come back into oil as it is an escalation of tensions there, in response to North Korean troops entering the fray,” IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.
Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee, said: “So far there has been little impact on Russian oil exports, but if Ukraine were to target more oil infrastructure that could see oil markets elevate further.”
In Russia, at least three refineries have had to halt processing or cut runs due to heavy losses amid export curbs, rising crude prices and high borrowing costs, according to five industry sources.
Brent and WTI slid more than 3 percent last week on weak data from China and after the International Energy Agency forecasted that global oil supply will exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+.
China’s refinery throughput fell 4.6 percent in October from last year and as the country’s factory output growth slowed last month, government data showed on Friday.
Investors also fretted over the pace and extent of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve that has created uncertainty in global financial markets.
In the US, the number of operating oil rigs fell by one to 478 last week, the lowest since the week to July 19, Baker Hughes data showed.
Saudi gold demand defies price surge amid cultural, digital shift
Updated 20 June 2025
Nadin Hassan
RIYADH: Gold prices may be at record highs, but that has not stopped Saudi consumers from buying. In the first quarter of 2025, demand for gold jewelry in the Kingdom jumped 35 percent year on year, even as global demand fell 21 percent, according to the World Gold Council.
That surge comes amid a global price rally, with gold breaching $3,500 per ounce in April, up from around $2,370 a year earlier — driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and aggressive central bank buying.
“This rapid increase in the price of the bullion can be attributed to one main reason – central bank buying,” Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial, told Arab News.
Yet despite the soaring cost, Saudi Arabia’s deep-rooted gold culture continues to shine, with consumers purchasing 11.5 tonnes of gold jewelry in the first quarter, up from 8.5 tonnes a year earlier.
“This feat occurred despite the 34 percent rise in prices in early 2025, demonstrating Saudi consumers’ strong demand and purchasing power,” said Valecha.
Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial. Supplied
Gold in the Kingdom is more than a financial asset — it represents tradition, adornment, and intergenerational wealth. From bullion bars to minimalist 18-carat jewelry, Saudi buyers are proving resilient even as other regional markets, such as the UAE and Kuwait, witness sharp declines in demand.
Hamza Dweik, head of trading for the MENA region at Saxo Bank, emphasized gold’s cultural role, telling Arab News: “Gold is deeply embedded in Saudi traditions, especially during weddings and festive occasions. This cultural attachment ensures a steady baseline of demand, even during price surges.”
Global factors
Valecha explained that following the conflict in Ukraine, many countries grew concerned about holding excessive reserves in US dollars, prompting nations such as China and Russia to increase their gold purchases.
“China has spearheaded record levels of global central bank purchases of gold. Hence, looking ahead, the trend of gold buying by central banks is expected to continue,” he added.
Another push came in May, when Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing “a sustained increase in government debt (exceeding $36 trillion), rising interest payment ratios, and persistent fiscal deficits exacerbated by political dysfunction and policy uncertainty.”
Valecha added that this marked the first time the US lost its top-tier rating from all three major agencies.
Cultural drivers
In different parts of the Kingdom, people buy gold for different reasons. In the north, around 70 percent of buyers view gold primarily as an investment, while in the south, it is more closely tied to tradition and adornment. Gold bars and coins are also gaining popularity, with people stocking their safes with bars of varying weights and purity.
In the first quarter, gold demand in Saudi Arabia grew 15 percent year on year to 4.4 tonnes. Jewelry preferences are also shifting — from favoring diamonds to a growing obsession with gold.
More young buyers are opting for 18-carat pieces due to their affordability, modern style, and lighter tone, as they appear less yellow than 21- and 24-carat gold.
“They also have a less flashy design/colour, which makes them better for everyday use,” Valecha explained.
Hamza Dweik, head of trading for the MENA region at Saxo Bank. Supplied
Digital platforms and online gold purchases are also on the rise, blending tradition with technology — from buying fractional gold and using savings apps to investing through exchange-traded funds.
“Younger generations are blending tradition with technology — embracing digital gold platforms, fractional ownership, and ETFs, while still participating in cultural gifting. This is reshaping how gold is marketed and consumed,” Dweik added.
While countries including the UAE and Kuwait have seen gold demand decline, Saudi Arabia is moving in the opposite direction, with domestic consumers leading the surge, supported by strong spending habits.
Consumer spending in the Kingdom hit an all-time high in March, rising 17 percent to SR148 billion ($39.44 billion) — the highest monthly increase since May 2021 — before easing to SR113.9 billion in April.
The shift in consumer behavior is evident across the Kingdom. Jewelers in Riyadh spoken to by Arab News reported a growing interest in custom pieces, lighter-weight ornaments, and contemporary designs that suit both festive occasions and everyday wear.
The 18-carat trend, once seen as a budget-friendly option, has become a fashion choice, according to the jewelers. More women are purchasing gold for themselves, breaking away from the traditional gift-only narrative.
While physical stores remain popular for high-value purchases, particularly during wedding seasons and religious festivals, digital platforms are making inroads. Online retailers like L’azurde are adapting to this demand by offering buy-now-pay-later plans, making gold more accessible to a wider audience. Popular jewelry items include 21-carat necklaces and rings, while younger buyers favor 18-carat pieces for daily wear.
Market outlook
Looking ahead, both Valecha and Dweik expect prices to remain strong. Valecha predicts gold could reach $3,700 per ounce by year-end, though he cautions short-term investors. “Buyers should assess their investment horizon — long-term holders may still find value, while short-term buyers should be mindful of volatility,” he said.
“Sustained central bank purchases, heightened investor appetite in a period of uncertainty in the economic landscape, and projected interest rate cuts drive this bullish projection. The projected price under a recession scenario is as high as $3,880 per ounce,” Valecha added.
Dweik agreed, and said: “While structural drivers support continued growth, potential corrections could occur if inflation eases or interest rates rise.”
Saudi Arabia may also be poised to grow into a regional gold trading hub. Valecha believes that with the right infrastructure and regulatory framework, the Kingdom could play a larger role in the global market. “To elevate its status, a modern, transparent gold market ecosystem and enhanced refining capabilities would be essential,” he said.
With deep-rooted traditions, rising investment activity, and a modernized retail environment, Saudi Arabia’s gold market is not only resilient — it is evolving. In a time of global uncertainty, gold continues to shine across the Kingdom.
Where the money is flowing: AI, agritech, and fintech set to lead Saudi venture capital ecosystem
Updated 20 June 2025
Nour El-Shaeri
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s venture capital ecosystem is entering a pivotal phase of growth, fueled by a surge in domestic and international investment targeting sectors aligned with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030.
Agriculture tech, fintech, artificial intelligence, and clean energy are emerging as key pillars of this transformation, driven by regulatory reforms, demographic shifts, and a rising global investor appetite.
The country’s ambition to become a regional innovation hub is drawing sustained capital inflows, placing it at the center of the broader emerging venture market investment narrative.
Domestic ambition shapes sectoral disposition
Said Murad, senior partner at investment firm Global Ventures, cited Saudi Arabia’s high food import dependency and its ambitions to boost domestic production as key in drawing funds to the Kingdom.
“Agritech and climate-related technologies will certainly contribute to the next phase of investment growth,” he told Arab News in an interview.
Complementing this trend, Philip Bahoshy, CEO of MAGNiTT, pointed to fintech, AI, clean energy, logistics, and advanced manufacturing as areas expected to dominate future funding.
“These sectors align with Vision 2030’s push for economic diversification and digital transformation,” he told Arab News, with health tech and deep tech also gaining traction due to increasing research and development support and regulatory tailwinds.
Philip Bahoshy, CEO of MAGNiTT. Supplied
AI, in particular, is emerging as a dominant investment theme in the region. According to MAGNiTT’s 2025 predictions, the sector is set to double its share of venture capital funding in emerging venture markets this year, following a surge of high-profile deals in 2024.
“AI was the main driver of investment activity both in the private and public markets in the US and other mature markets in 2024,” the platform noted, referencing data from PitchBook.
In the first nine months of 2024, AI accounted for 41.3 percent of US venture capital funding. In Saudi Arabia, this momentum is reflected in deals such as Intelmatix’s $20 million Series A round and Amazon Web Services’s planned data center investment, both signaling the Kingdom’s rising stake in the global AI landscape.
MAGNiTT also cited broader geopolitical and commercial developments in the AI space, including chip export agreements, as indicators of the sector’s rising importance in the region.
“Based on our proprietary data, we expect AI funding to double in 2025 due to increased investor attention to innovative AI startups,” the company stated.
Beyond AI, Global Ventures’ investment in Iyris, an agritech company spun out of King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, illustrates the potential of local innovation to address long-standing structural challenges.
“Iyris is positively disrupting agricultural practices for mid-to-low-tech farmers, particularly in hot climates,” Murad said.
The startup launched the National Food Production Initiative in 2023, partnering with SABIC and Red Sea Global to establish a sustainable farming project in Bada, Saudi Arabia, aimed at regenerating unproductive land and enhancing food security.
Fintech remains another strong area of interest, supported by a digitally connected population and a push toward financial inclusion.
“With 98 percent internet penetration and 97 percent smartphone adoption among the 18-to-78-year age group, the Kingdom has one of the world’s most digitally enabled populations,” Murad said.
He views this as a key enabler for innovation in financial services, both consumer-facing and enterprise-driven.
Focused sectors, broad appeal
Capital inflows into Saudi Arabia are being driven not only by sector performance but also by global institutional interest in the region.
According to MAGNiTT, firms including BlackRock, Golden Gate Ventures, and Polen Capital have already established offices or acquired licenses in the Kingdom, the UAE, or Qatar.
Others, including General Catalyst and the BRICS Investment Fund, have made their investment debuts or launched dedicated MENA-focused funds.
“In 2025, we expect even more investors and asset managers to set up offices in the EVM regions, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE,” MAGNiTT stated, attributing this to the region’s “friendly business-enabling environment.”
Said Murad, senior partner at investment firm Global Ventures. Supplied
Deal flow in the Kingdom has grown across all funding stages. “Saudi Arabia saw a surge in pre-seed and seed-stage funding,” said Murad, noting that demand for later-stage capital is increasing as startups validate their models and seek international expansion.
Supporting this trajectory is a growing exit pipeline. In 2024, Saudi Arabia completed 42 initial public offerings, ranking seventh globally in capital raised.
“This growing pipeline of exits signals the increasing maturity of the country’s capital markets and reinforces the long-term viability of its venture ecosystem,” Murad added.
As international capital intensifies, local venture firms are adapting their strategies to remain competitive.
“Regional players active in the market will understand local nuances, ultimately providing a competitive advantage,” Murad said.
He emphasized that investors offering operational support and showcasing portfolio success stories will be best positioned to attract international limited partners.
The Kingdom’s regulatory environment is increasingly seen as a strength in the region’s venture capital narrative.
“Government initiatives and the regulatory framework are geared to venture capital firms investing in startups in a secure, forward-thinking, and robust environment,” Murad said.
Still, he cautioned that strong business fundamentals remain essential. “The need for entrepreneurs to have strong, sustainable business models with good unit economics is as necessary as ever,” said the Global Ventures partner.
Despite global uncertainties, Saudi entrepreneurs may be better equipped than most to navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment.
“At Global Ventures, we refer to the ‘adversity advantage’— a natural upside for regional entrepreneurs who are used to working with, and around, resource scarcity,” Murad said.
“This has empowered them, by design, to build businesses more resilient and adaptable to challenges,” he added.
Oil Updates — prices fall as US delays decision on direct Iran involvement
Updated 20 June 2025
Reuters
SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell on Friday after the White House delayed a decision on US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, but remained on course for a third consecutive weekly rise.
Brent crude futures fell $2, or 2.5 percent, to $76.85 a barrel by 9:48 a.m. Saudi time but still looked set to gain more than 3 percent on the week.
US West Texas Intermediate crude for July — which did not settle on Thursday as it was a US holiday and expires on Friday — was down 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $75.
The more liquid August contract was up 0.3 percent, or 19 cents, to $73.69.
On Thursday prices jumped almost 3 percent after Israel bombed nuclear targets in Iran and Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel. The week-old war between Israel and Iran showed no signs of either side backing down. Iran is OPEC’s third-largest producer.
Brent futures trimmed previous session gains following the White House’s comments that President Donald Trump would decide whether the US will get involved in the Israel-Iran conflict in the next two weeks.
“Oil prices surged amid fears of increased US involvement in Israel’s conflict with Iran. However, the White House press secretary later suggested there was still time for de-escalation,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at the Price Futures Group.
“The ‘two-week deadline’ is a tactic Trump has used in other key decisions. Often these deadlines expire without concrete action, ... which would see the crude oil price remain elevated and potentially build on recent gains,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG.
Emril Jamil, oil research analyst at LSEG, said the “unwavering determination” of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to increase output “may have added jitters to the market.”
OPEC+ has proven to be oil markets’ central bank, says Saudi energy minister
Updated 19 June 2025
Nadin Hassan
RIYADH: OPEC+ has proven to be the “central bank” and regulator of the global oil market, providing much-needed stability, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said.
Speaking at the annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in Russia, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman praised the alliance’s role in balancing oil markets amid global economic uncertainties.
“I would have to say that OPEC+ had proven to be an instrument that if it wasn’t invented by us and Russia and our colleagues, it should have been invented a long time ago because this is what OPEC+ had achieved in terms of bringing stability to the market and had proven that it is the central bank and the regulator of oil markets,” the energy minister said.
Prince Abdulaziz also highlighted the ongoing partnership between Saudi Arabia and Russia through the Saudi-Russian Joint Committee, noting plans for Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to visit the Kingdom later this year with a high-level business delegation.
“I’m looking forward to host Alexander — the co-chair of our joint committee — to Saudi Arabia this year, with the biggest, most sizable business community participation,” he said.
Prince Abdulaziz emphasized that the collaboration seeks to deepen bilateral economic ties and foster diversified investment opportunities.
“We have a lot to showcase that bonding together. It will allow us to have a much more diversified relationship, and we are, as a government, working together to provide the right environment for those who want to invest in Saudi Arabia or in Russia or in any type or form of joint venturing that we should facilitate that and ensure that the investment environment is congenial for it to happen,” he added.
The minister described the energy alliance as a flexible mechanism responsive to changing global conditions, reaffirming Saudi Arabia’s commitment to cooperation with partners to maintain market stability.
Acknowledging the challenges facing Russia, Prince Abdulaziz noted the Kingdom’s support amid external restrictions.
“It’s been a challenging time what Russia is going through, but we have shown a great deal of understanding of the situation, and we’re trying to maneuver with the restrictions that are existing today,” he said.
“That has been the discharge of our leadership willingness to accommodate with this current situation and hopefully helping to support Russia in mitigating these exterior most daunting issues.”
On whether Saudi Arabia and Russia would compensate for any loss of Iranian crude supplies, the minister stressed that such scenarios are hypothetical and that OPEC+ decisions are collective.
“You give me a question that is not evidently seen happening, I don’t have an answer for you. Again, we only react to realities. But if anybody gives a question that is not relating to the reality today, I fail to see where we could predict things and how we would relate to it,” he said.
The minister clarified that OPEC+ consists of 22 member states and is not dominated by Saudi Arabia and Russia alone. A core group of eight countries is tasked with engaging the full membership to ensure coordinated responses to market changes.
“To respond to a hypothetical question by giving a hypothetical answer, which none of us two here have the right to speak on behalf of everybody without knowing their opinion, is too much of an ask,” he added.
He concluded by highlighting OPEC+’s reputation as a reliable and adaptive organization.
“What we know and what Alexander was saying just a while ago is that we have, as OPEC even before, an OPEC+ attending to so many circumstances since its first, it was in sequence, even inception, that we have been a reliable organization, a serious organization, an effective organization, and attentive to circumstances when they prevail,” he said.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 10,610
Updated 19 June 2025
Reem Walid
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Thursday, gaining 19.58 points, or 0.18 percent, to close at 10,610.71.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR6.4 billion ($1.7 billion), as 116 of the stocks advanced and 115 retreated.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu lost 28.01 points, or 0.11 percent, to close at 26,175.83. This came as 35 of the listed stocks advanced while 41 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index lost 0.54 points, or 0.04 percent, to close at 1,367.14.
The best-performing stock of the day was Alistithmar AREIC Diversified REIT Fund, whose share price surged 9.97 percent to SR7.50.
Seera Group Holding also recorded strong gains, with its share price rising 7.99 percent to SR23.80, while Banan Real Estate Co. climbed 7.14 percent to close at SR4.50.
Southern Province Cement Co. recorded the most significant drop, falling 5.19 percent to SR27.40. Ataa Educational Co. also saw its stock prices fall 3.43 percent to SR59.10.
Leejam Sports Co. also saw its stock prices decline 3.01 percent to SR116.
On the announcements front, Advance International Communications and Technology said it has completed the conversion of one of its branches into an independent limited liability company under the name Innovation Passage Technology Co.
According to a statement on Tadawul, the move is part of the company’s strategy to restructure its operations by separating the wholesale business sector. The new entity will take over all wholesale functions and operations. The company stated that the transformation is not expected to have a significant financial impact and that any further updates will be announced as they arise.
Alujain Corp. announced that its board of directors has approved the distribution of SR51.9 million in cash dividends for the second quarter of 2025.
A bourse filing revealed that the number of shares eligible for dividends is 69.2 million, with the dividend per share set at SR0.75. The dividend represents 7.5 percent of the share’s par value.
Alujain shares closed the session up 2.74 percent at SR35.
United Cooperative Assurance Co. announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Arabia Insurance Cooperative Co. to evaluate a potential merger.
According to a Tadawul filing, both parties will conduct technical, financial, tax, legal, and actuarial due diligence, and will enter into non-binding discussions regarding the terms and conditions of the proposed transaction.
United Cooperative Assurance shares closed at SR6.70, up 0.75 percent.
