QUETTA: Pakistan is working out the operational details, scope and scale of a planned military operation in the insurgency-plagued southwestern Balochistan province, officials said this week, with analysts saying pressure from Beijing had convinced Islamabad it was time to take on separatist militants in a region that is home to key Chinese Belt and Road projects.
Following a string of deadly attacks that have targeted its citizens in recent months, China has pushed to join security efforts to protect them and unveiled a plan on Tuesday for joint counter-terrorism exercises in Pakistan. On the same day, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired a meeting of civil and military leaders who gave the go-ahead for a “comprehensive operation” against separatist insurgents in Balochistan.
The statement from the prime minister’s office did not give any details of the operation, including whether it was limited to ground operations or could involve the air force, when it would be launched and in which parts of the vast, remote Balochistan province. It also did not mention if the plan would be a joint effort with Beijing and which Pakistani security agencies would take part.
“Nothing has been finalized yet because the meeting was held on Tuesday and further progress regarding the military operation will take time,” Wasim Akram, an information officer at the Ministry of Interior, told Arab News, adding that the scale of the operation and which forces would participate were details that were still being worked out.
Balochistan Government Spokesperson Shahid Rind and Special Secretary Home Department Abdul Nasir Dotani also did not share any specific details on the operation’s scope and scale.
“It was decided in the federal apex committee and it is clear it will be a comprehensive military operation,” Rind told Arab News.
Balochistan Home Secretary Shahab Ali Shah, Balochistan Chief Minister Sarfaraz Bugti, Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and Information Minister Attaullah Tarar could not be reached for comment despite several attempts.
“PRESSURE FROM CHINA”
Pakistan’s military already has a huge presence in Balochistan, which borders Afghanistan and Iran and is home to a decades-long separatist insurgency by militants fighting for a separate homeland to win a larger share of benefits from the resource-rich province. The government and military deny they are exploiting the province’s mineral wealth or ignoring its economic development.
The military has long run intelligence-based operations against insurgent groups, the most prominent being the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which has escalated attacks in recent months on the military and nationals from longtime ally China.
The region is home to the Gwadar Port, built by China as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $65 billion investment in President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative to expand China’s global reach.
In addition to the recent attacks, the BLA also claimed a suicide bombing last month outside the international airport in the southern port city of Karachi that killed two Chinese engineers.
“There shouldn’t be any ambiguity that Pakistan is facing internal and external pressure, mainly from China, to launch this new offensive against Baloch separatist militants,” Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior fellow at King’s College in London and a military affairs expert, told Arab News.
“There is increasing pressure from the Chinese government and they are not willing to financially assist Pakistan anymore until the security situation gets better … Pakistan has to demonstrate to the Chinese that we are doing something in Balochistan against Baloch militant groups.”
Shahzad Zulfiqar, a senior journalist who has been covering militancy in Balochistan for over two decades, concurred with Dr. Siddiqa, also pointing to reports that China was pushing Pakistan to allow its own security staff to protect thousands of Chinese citizens working in the South Asian nation.
“Though Pakistan has been taking action against militant groups involved in attacking Chinese nationals, now there is pressure from China which is asking Pakistan to work on a joint security mechanism because Chinese citizens are being targeted and are under threat,” he said.
The foreign office in Islamabad this month denied international media reports Beijing wanted its own security forces on the ground in Pakistan.
Pakistan had raised a security force to protect Chinese nationals and projects, particularly those operating under the CPEC umbrella, and “this security apparatus continues to provide security to Chinese CPEC projects inside Pakistan,” Foreign Office Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch told reporters on Nov. 14:
“Pakistan and China have a robust dialogue and cooperation on a range of issues including counterterrorism and security of Chinese nationals in Pakistan … We will continue to work with our Chinese brothers for the safety and security of Chinese nationals, projects and institutions in Pakistan.”
“NO MILITARY SOLUTIONS”
Ethnic Baloch separatists have launched several insurgencies in Balochistan since the birth of Pakistan in 1947, including from 1948-50, 1958–60, 1962–63 and 1973–1977. An ongoing low-level insurgency began in 2003. The army has launched several military campaigns in response, including as early as 1948 in the state of Kalat and a five-year-long operation in the 70s under Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto.
“Many political governments have come and gone in Balochistan but the operation has continued,” Sardar Akhter Jan Mengal, head of the Balochistan National Party (BNP) and a prominent Baloch nationalist leader in the province, told Arab News.
“No one can resolve Balochistan’s political issue with military operations.”
Indeed, political leaders and independent analysts have for years urged the government to take a holistic approach to resolving Balochistan’s problems, which they say stems from decades of economic deprivation and political disenfranchisement. The province, which comprises 44 percent of Pakistan’s total land mass, is its most backward by almost all economic and social indicators.
Rich in land and mineral wealth, most parts of the region often lack even the rudiments of modern life. For instance, though home to Reko Diq, one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper and gold deposits, and the site of major Chinese investment projects, the province lacks employment opportunities and basic facilities like Internet, health and education.
Balochistan is also the least represented in Pakistan’s parliament, where legislative seats are allocated to provinces according to their population. Balochistan has a population of only 14.89 million people in a country of over 240 million and is hence allocated only 16 National Assembly seats. Punjab, with a much smaller land area but a population of 127.68 million, gets 141 seats.
Zulfiqar, the journalist, said military operations needed to be combined with social and economic development as well as “good governance” efforts to be successful.
“This will be the fifth military operation in Balochistan since 1947,” he said. “Military operations are not the only solution to bring peace and stability in Balochistan, there should be more options involved with the military operation, including dialogue and good governance.”
In fact, many fear another military operation in the province will further alienate its citizens, rights activists and political leaders, who have long accused security agencies of arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings and other types of rights abuses in the name of cracking down on separatists. The state denies it is involved in such activities.
“This military operation will put more fuel in the fire of hate in Balochistan rather than extinguish it,” BNP’s Mengal said.
Nawab Aslam Raisani, a provincial lawmaker and a senior political and tribal leader in the province, also warned against a military operation.
“We haven’t seen any result of the use of military force,” he said. “This new decision of the apex committee to launch a military operation in Balochistan will push the federation toward more destruction.”
Pushed by Beijing, Pakistan plans military operation against Baloch separatists — analysts
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Pushed by Beijing, Pakistan plans military operation against Baloch separatists — analysts
- Government has announced operation but not shared details of scale, scope, whether it will be joint effort with China
- Analysts say military solutions will not work in Balochistan, plagued by low-level separatist insurgency since decades
Pakistan says fuel stocks sufficient, vows vigilance as Mideast tensions rattle markets
- Committee to monitor petroleum pricing and supply in response to Israel’s attack on Iran holds inaugural meeting
- Pakistan relies heavily on imported oil, global price swings can drain its foreign reserves and fuel domestic inflation
KARACHI: Pakistan currently holds adequate stocks of petroleum products and faces no immediate risk of supply disruption, the finance ministry said on Monday, while warning that continued vigilance was needed as Middle East tensions pushed oil markets into fresh volatility.
The statement came after the inaugural meeting of a committee formed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif last week to monitor petroleum pricing and supply in response to an ongoing military confrontation between Israel and Iran.
Oil markets have been volatile amid the escalation, with Brent crude prices jumping about 7 percent last Friday to near $75 per barrel, but edging down on Monday, as renewed military strikes by both nations over the weekend left oil production and export facilities unaffected.
Concern is focused on potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one‑fifth of global oil transits, and weak supply growth from Iran, which produces about 3.3 million barrels per day. Analysts caution any sustained spike could drive up global freight rates, insurance premiums and inflation, particularly in energy‑importing countries like Pakistan.
“The committee expressed satisfaction that Pakistan currently holds adequate stocks of petroleum products and there is no immediate risk of supply disruption. Nonetheless, members emphasized the need for continued vigilance given the rapidly changing regional context,” the finance ministry said after the first meeting of the committee, chaired by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb.
The ministry added that to ensure timely response and effective coordination, a working group would monitor developments on a daily basis, and the full committee would meet weekly to review the situation and submit recommendations to the prime minister.
“The Government of Pakistan remains fully committed to maintaining energy security, stabilizing markets, and protecting the national interest during this critical time,” the statement added.
The committee has been entrusted with monitoring the forward/futures prices of petroleum products and the predictability of supply chains, determining the foreign reserve implications of price volatility in the short and medium term, suggesting a plan, if and when required, to ensure there were no supply disruptions and the market was well supplied, and carrying out a detailed analysis of the fiscal impact in the event of a protracted conflict.
Pakistan relies heavily on imported oil, and any sustained spike in prices could widen its current account deficit and push inflation higher at a time when the country is struggling with low foreign reserves and slow growth.
The Israel-Iran conflict started on Friday when Israel launched a massive wave of attacks targeting Iranian nuclear and military facilities but also hitting residential areas, sparking retaliation and fears of a broader regional conflict. Over 220, mostly civilians have been killed in Iran so far, while Israel has reported 23 deaths in retaliatory strikes by Tehran.
Pakistan and Iran share a 909 kilometer (565 mile) long international boundary that separates Iran’s southeastern Sistan-Baluchestan province from Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province.
“Israel-Iran conflict presents complex challenges for Pakistan as rising oil prices may increase import costs and inflation, influencing monetary policy and growth, while disruptions to key routes like the Strait of Hormuz can affect energy supplies and critical projects,” Khaqan Najeeb, an economist and former finance ministry adviser, told Arab News last week.
“It can potentially affect consumer purchasing power and production costs ... Possible disruptions to shipping routes and higher freight charges might result in delays to imports and exports, thereby exerting additional pressure on Pakistan’s external sector.”
Rain predicted in parts of Punjab in next 24 hours as heatwave eases
- Met Office said on June 10 heatwave in several parts of the country was expected to continue well into middle of the month
- Heat wave has begun to subside with rainfall in many areas of Punjab in the last 24 hours, disaster management officials say
ISLAMABAD: Light rain is forecast in several divisions of Pakistan’s Punjab province over the next 24 hours, provincial disaster management officials said on Monday, as a prolonged heat wave begins to ease in some areas.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said on June 10 an ongoing heatwave in several parts of the country was expected to continue well into the middle of the month, with temperatures soaring above normal, disrupting daily life and raising health concerns.
However, the heat wave has begun to subside, a spokesperson for the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said in a situation report, and in the past 24 hours, Bahawalnagar recorded 8 millimeters of rain, Sahiwal 3 mm, and Toba Tek Singh up to 2 mm.
Rainfall was also reported in Multan, Sialkot, Jhang, Kasur, Faisalabad and Rawalpindi districts.
“Rain is predicted in Lahore, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad, Multan, Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Gujranwala, D.G. Khan, and Sahiwal divisions in the next 24 hours,” the PDMA spokesperson said.
Five people were injured in a roof collapse caused by rain in Kasur district in the last 24 hours, the PDMA confirmed.
PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia “instructed to provide the best medical assistance to the injured” and urged residents to exercise caution during unstable weather.
“Citizens are requested to take precautionary measures in bad weather conditions,” Kathia said in the statement. “Stay in safe places in bad weather conditions. Never go out under the open sky during thunderstorms.”
Pakistan ranks among the top ten countries most vulnerable to climate change and has faced increasingly frequent extreme weather events in recent years, including deadly heat waves and floods.
Temperatures in the upper parts of the country including parts of Punjab, Islamabad, northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the northern regions of Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan remained 5°C to 7°C above normal this past week. Temperatures in the southern Sindh, eastern Punjab and southwestern Balochistan provinces stayed 4°C to 6°C above normal.
Five militants with suspected India links killed in Pakistan’s northwest — army
- Four militants killed in a raid in Peshawar district late on Sunday
- Another was shot dead during separate operation in North Waziristan
ISLAMABAD: Pakistani security forces have killed five suspected militants in two separate intelligence-based operations in the country’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the military said on Monday, alleging the insurgents had links to India.
The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the army’s media wing, said four militants were killed in a raid in Peshawar district late Sunday, while another was shot dead during a separate operation in North Waziristan.
The army described the militants as being “Indian proxies.”
The military said troops “skillfully surrounded and effectively engaged the Indian-sponsored Khwarij location,” and after an “intense fire exchange, four Indian-sponsored Khwarij, including Kharji Haris and Kharji Baseer, were sent to hell.”
A search operation in North Waziristan led to the killing of another suspected militant, the statement added. Troops recovered weapons, ammunition and explosives at both sites.
Pakistan has long accused its neighbor India of backing separatist and other militants to destabilize its territory, a charge New Delhi strongly denies.
Militant violence has surged in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province since 2021, when a fragile ceasefire with the Pakistani Taliban collapsed. Attacks by separatists have also spiked in southwestern Balochistan. Islamabad claims that militants receive sanctuary and funding from foreign states like India, Afghanistan and Iran. All three deny the accusations.
There was no immediate response from India’s foreign ministry to the latest allegations.
Pakistan set to hold policy rate as Israel-Iran conflict overshadows growth push
- Eleven of 14 respondents in a snap poll expected central bank to leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 11 percent
- Central bank paused its easing cycle in March after cumulative cuts of 1,000 basis points from a record high of 22 percent
KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank is expected to hold its policy rate today, Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as many analysts shifted their previous view of a cut in the wake of Israel’s military strike on Iran, citing inflation risks from rising global commodity prices.
Israel said on Friday it targeted nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders in a “preemptive strike” to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon.
Several brokerages had initially expected a cut but revised their forecasts after the Israeli strikes sparked fears of a broader conflict.
The escalating hostilities triggered a sharp spike in oil prices — a worry for Pakistan given the broader impact on imported inflation from a potentially prolonged conflict and tightening of crude supplies.
Eleven of 14 respondents in a snap poll expected the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 11 percent. Two forecast a 100 basis-point cut and one predicted a 50 bps cut.
“There remains an upside risk of a rise in global commodity prices in light of geopolitical tensions which could mark a return to inflationary pressures,” said Ahmad Mobeen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
“The resultant higher import bill could also threaten external sector performance and bring pressure to the exchange rate.”
Inflation in the South Asian country has been declining for several months after it soared to around 40 percent in May 2023.
Last month, however, inflation picked up to 3.5 percent, above the finance ministry’s projection of up to 2 percent, partly due to the fading of the year-go base effects. The SBP expects average inflation between 5.5 percent and 7.5 percent for the fiscal year ending June.
The central bank paused its easing cycle in March after cumulative cuts of 1,000 basis points from a record high of 22 percent, and resumed it with a 100-basis-point reduction in May.
The policy meeting follows the release a tight annual budget, which saw Pakistan raise defense spending by 20 percent but overall expenditure was reduced by 7 percent, with GDP growth forecast at 4.2 percent.
Pakistan says its $350 billion economy has stabilized under a $7 billion IMF bailout that had helped it staved a default threat.
Some analysts are skeptical of the government’s ability to reach the growth target amid fiscal and external challenges.
Abdul Azeem, head of research at Al Habib Capital Markets, which forecast a 50-bp cut, said a lower rate could “support the GDP target of 4.2 percent and reduce the debt financing burden.”
Pakistanis rally to demand Muslim solidarity with Iran as conflict with Israel deepens
- Israel’s surprise attack on targets across Iran on Friday has been followed by four days of escalating strikes
- Israeli attacks in Iran have killed over 220 people, mostly civilians, since Friday, 23 dead from Iran’s retaliatory strikes
LAHORE: Hundreds of demonstrators gathered in the Pakistani city of Lahore on Sunday to protest Israel’s military strikes on Iran, calling for unity among Muslim nations and stronger action against what they described as Israeli aggression.
Israel’s surprise attack on targets across Iran on Friday has been followed by four days of escalating strikes, as both sides have threatened more devastation in the biggest ever confrontation between the longstanding enemies.
Clutching banners and chanting slogans, protesters in Lahore urged Muslim countries to stand with Iran and resist Israel’s actions.
“The only solution to this is that the atrocity and barbarism that Israel started is put to an end by getting together with Iran,” said Nida Fatima, a student who joined the rally. “For every Muslim, every proud Muslim, every proud individual in any Muslim nation, it is their duty to stand up for Palestine with Iran.”
Hussnain Zaidi, a local marketing manager in his 50s, demanded immediate international pressure on Israel.
“The oppression and brutality that Israel has committed against Iran must end, and the international community must propose a punishment for it so that it does not attempt to destroy any country in the future like Israel did with Gaza,” he told AFP.
The death toll in Iran since Friday has reached at least 224, with 90 percent of the casualties reported to be civilians, an Iranian health ministry spokesperson said. At least 23 fatalities have been reported in Israel, including in Tel Aviv and Haifa, as per Israel’s national emergency services/.
Pakistan’s Foreign Office has condemned Israeli missile strikes on Iran as a “grave violation of international law” and urged the United Nations to take immediate steps to halt the aggression and hold Israel accountable.
Pakistan, which does not recognize Israel, has for decades called for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders, with Al-Quds Al-Sharif as its capital.
The Lahore demonstration reflects growing domestic pressure on the Pakistani government to take a stronger stance against Israel as the conflict deepens and oil prices rise, potentially squeezing Pakistan’s economy and foreign exchange reserves.
Israel has long been determined to prevent Iran, its fiercest enemy, from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Since the rise of the Islamic Republic at the end of the 1970s, Iran’s rulers have repeatedly pledged to destroy Israel.
