Pakistan and Trump 2.0 will be different to his first administration
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The re-election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the US has been an occurrence of immense geopolitical significance. This development is going to disrupt the political order espoused by the outgoing Biden administration and will likely re-usher the period of transactional politics and closed-door deal-making associated with the previous Trump administration. A Harris presidency on the other hand would have largely preserved the current policy status quo.
This political change within the US is bound to impact not only Pakistan’s regional geostrategic environment but may eventually influence its politics as well. Previously, the Trump administration had maintained a decidedly hawkish stance over China but was more amenable to engagement with Putin’s Russia. Within South Asia, India remained the preferable partner for the Trump administration as it advanced an Indo-Pacific strategy to curtail China’s rise. The first Trump administration initially was skeptical of Pakistan in particular owing to its alleged provision of safe havens to the Afghan Taliban. In a show of his “Twitter statecraft” President Trump suspended the $1.3 billion security assistance to Pakistan while accusing it of playing a game of deception and lies with the US. This dynamic however changed as the Trump administration decided to engage with Taliban insurgents and to withdraw from Afghanistan. This helped re-engagement between the two sides and a channel of communication opened up between the then Pakistani Premier Imran Khan and President Trump. Since both men had been brought into power by waves of political populism, their bilateral engagement remained cordial, improving the general trajectory of Pakistan-US ties. President Trump even offered to mediate between Pakistan and its archrival India, something that was not welcomed within New Delhi.
Rubio and Waltz have remained strong critics of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, so it remains to be seen how much policy freedom they will enjoy in their respective portfolios under a President who demands absolute loyalty.
Umar Karim
This warming of the bilateral diplomacy however didn’t bring a structural shift in the nature of the relationship. The Trump administration didn’t restart the suspended security assistance program to Pakistan and the personal connect between Trump and Khan remained of limited utility for the country. With the arrival of the Biden administration in the White House and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan’s strategic utility ended. Furthermore, Khan’s refusal to allow the US to use its territory or bases for any future action within Afghanistan further soured his personal image within the Biden administration. Even after the removal of PM Khan, the bilateral relationship continued to remain transactional and was devoid of any strategic utility.
The second Trump administration happens to be staffed largely by China hawks who have subsequently argued for greater partnership with India. Although, pro-India figures like Nikki Haley have not made it to the new list of appointees, it still contains figures who have expressed anti-Pakistan sentiments in the past. Trump’s national security adviser pick Florida Congressman Mike Waltz has accused Pakistan of adopting terrorism as a state policy and has advocated for sanctioning the country. Similarly, Trump’s pick for foreign sectary Senator Marco Rubio has also advocated for a greater scrutiny of Pakistan’s actions. However, both Rubio and Waltz have remained strong critics of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, so it remains to be seen how much policy freedom they will enjoy in their respective portfolios under a President who demands absolute loyalty.
In addition to this anti-Pakistan backdrop of certain figureheads within the new Trump administration particularly on issues related to terrorism, it is likely that the country will face greater US pressure with regards to its relationship with China. Iran remains the other foreign policy domain where this change in the White House can have a sizeable impact. Both Pakistan and Iran have been trying to improve their bilateral relationship after cross border strikes earlier this year. A key issue has also been the construction of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Iran has been pushing Pakistan to complete its side of the pipeline and after Pakistan’s foot-dragging on the issue has taken its case to the International Court of Arbitration. From a Pakistani perspective, the main obstacle hindering the completion of the gas pipeline project has been US sanctions on Iran. Under the Biden administration these sanctions were not enforced strictly, however under Trump this is likely to change, and the sanctions regime will become tougher. This will further complicate the Pak-Iran relationship.
In this presidential election, there had been some mobilization of Pakistani American diaspora in favor of President Trump with a focus to highlight the current state of democracy in the country and the incarceration of former premier Imran Khan. It is unlikely that the Trump administration will immediately put any pressure on Pakistani authorities vis-à-vis Khan, yet the massive dislike for “the Pro-Putin Pakistani Populist Khan” harbored by the Biden administration is certainly gone. Simultaneously, the push by several American congress members on the issue may find some traction with the new administration and thereby impact political developments within Pakistan. Pakistan was able to make a breakthrough with the first Trump administration thanks to its strategic utility and the amicable personal ties between President Trump and PM Khan. This time the country lacks both and thus the engagement may not start on a positive note.
– Umar Karim is a doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham. His research focuses on the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s strategic outlook, the Saudi-Iran tussle, conflict in Syria, and the geopolitics of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. X: @UmarKarim89
