Will shaky ceasefire hold in Lebanon as tensions simmer in the neighborhood?

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Updated 01 December 2024
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Will shaky ceasefire hold in Lebanon as tensions simmer in the neighborhood?

  • Arab American Institute founder James Zogby and international law expert Brad Roth share their insights on the Ray Hanania Radio Show
  • Events in Syria suggest non-state actors taking advantage of weakness of Axis of Resistance alliance after setbacks in Gaza and Lebanon

CHICAGO/LONDON: As a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon meant to stop the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah enters its fifth day, experts have cast doubt on its sustainability, the region’s future stability and the role of international justice in holding leaders accountable for alleged war crimes.

To complicate matters, a surprise attack on Aleppo, a city in neighboring Syria, by militant groups on Thursday breached a five-year-long truce, reigniting a long-running civil war with an intensity not seen in years.

The most serious challenge to the government of President Bashar Assad in years, the assault has raised questions about whether non-state actors are trying to take advantage of weakness of the so-called Axis of Resistance alliance resulting from setbacks suffered by Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Appearing on “The Ray Hanania Radio Show” this week, Arab American Institute founder James Zogby and international law expert Brad Roth offered insights into the Lebanon ceasefire agreement and its broader geopolitical implications.




Arab American Institute founder James Zogby and international law expert Brad Roth. (Supplied photos)

The ceasefire, announced earlier this week, comes after months of intense fighting in southern Lebanon and Gaza. While it has brought temporary relief, the terms appear to favor Israel, with critics warning of its instability as the two factions “remaining fully equipped” to strike.

Zogby described the deal as “one-sided,” noting that Israel retains significant freedom to act unilaterally. “The US and France were pushing (for the ceasefire), but the terms of the deal are Israel’s terms,” Zogby said.

The truce, brokered by the US and France, revisits the framework of UN Resolution 1701, enacted 18 years ago. According to US President Joe Biden, the agreement is intended to establish a “permanent cessation of hostilities.” It calls for Israel to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon and limits armed groups in the area to the Lebanese military and UN peacekeeping forces.




UN peacekeepers patrol in the southern Lebanese city of Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, on November 29, 2024. (AFP)

However, the updated terms grant Israel extensive leeway. A “reformulated and enhanced” mechanism, chaired by the US, allows Israel to strike Hezbollah arms shipments, a clause that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as ensuring “full freedom of military action” with Washington’s backing.

Meanwhile, the US has pledged to rearm Israel, restoring its military capacity to pre-war levels.

“I don’t think we have a ceasefire in the real sense of a ceasefire. It’s not two teams agreeing to stop. There’s one team saying: ‘we gotta stop.’ That’s Lebanon. The other team is saying: ‘We’re going to continue if we need to and the way we want to’,” Zogby said, suggesting that Israel’s insistence on the ceasefire was partly driven by internal challenges.

“I think there’s another reason why Israel wanted this now, and that is that their troops are exhausted,” he said. “They’ve been fighting new fronts. Israel’s never fought a war this long. They’re already experiencing suicides and other forms of post-traumatic shock syndrome.”




Israeli tanks are seen near the border with Lebanon on November 28, 2024. James Zogby believes Israel has agreed to a ceasefire with the Hezbollajh largely because its troops are exhausted, (AFP)

Yet, Zogby warned that Israel’s military dominance remains unchecked. “The US has created a monster which has incredible offensive capability and no restraint. None. I used to compare Israel and the Palestinians to the spoiled child and the abused child. Israel’s the spoiled child with unlimited destructive capability, and that’s dangerous.”

In his Tuesday night announcement of the ceasefire, Netanyahu described Israel’s military campaign as “victorious” on all seven fronts — Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Iran — claiming it aimed to weaken adversaries and reshape the region. However, experts view his push to expand the war as a strategy to bolster his hold on power amid a corruption trial in which he is set to testify on Dec. 10, and to obscure the true focus of the conflict: Gaza.

“Lebanon never was the main arena. It’s always been about the conquest of the land of Palestine for them,” Zogby said, criticizing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s remarks on Hezbollah’s role in Gaza, who claimed the war in Gaza lasted so long because “Hamas was counting on Hezbollah’s cavalry.




Lebanese army soldiers manning a checkpoint use a military vehicle to block a road in southern Lebanon's Marjayoun area on November 28, 2024, a day after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect. (AFP)

“And I thought, ‘how dumb, how blindsided, how short-sighted, rather, can he be that he thinks that what’s going on in Gaza is Hamas holding out for Hezbollah to rescue them. This has always been about Israel destroying Hamas and the US supporting them in that. There’s never been a desire for a ceasefire or a peace agreement,” he said.

Zogby also highlighted Lebanon’s internal struggles following the conflict. With more than 1.2 million Lebanese displaced, primarily Shiite Muslims, tensions have escalated as they relocate to areas dominated by other sectarian groups. “The country, after all, has been on the brink for a long time,” Zogby said, pointing to the ceasefire’s terms, which critics say works in Israel’s favor.

Hezbollah’s decision to open a southern front in support of Gaza had drawn significant criticism within Lebanon. Many argued it exacerbated the nation’s economic and political crises, deepening divisions and compounding the devastation. While the ceasefire has provided a fleeting sense of relief, displaced Shiite residents, unable to return to their ruined homes, question what, if anything, was gained from the war.




Mourners carry the coffins of Hezbollah fighters killed in the fighting against Israeli troops as they pass by a destroyed building in Maarakeh village, southern Lebanon, on Nov. 29, 2024.(AP)

For Hezbollah, this raises existential challenges. Critics contend that its ability to mobilize support — long reliant on weapons, financial sway and promises of deterrence — has been severely weakened, leaving its future influence in the region uncertain.

The ceasefire coincides with the International Criminal Court’s move to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas commander Mohammed Deif, accusing them of war crimes and crimes against humanity. However, the likelihood of these leaders facing justice remains slim, given Israel’s refusal to recognize the ICC’s jurisdiction.

INNUMBERS

3,900+ People killed in Lebanon in Israeli strikes since October 2023.

76+ Israeli soldiers killed in war with Hezbollah over same period.

44,000+ Estimated Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the same period.

Brad Roth, a professor of law at Wayne State University and an expert on international justice, outlined the challenges confronting the ICC. “In principle, if US forces commit war crimes or plausibly alleged to commit war crimes within the territory of a state that is either party to the ICC statute or has conferred specialty jurisdiction over the situation, then US forces can be subject to the jurisdiction of the ICC,” he said.

“The US has always objected to that, but they have never had very good grounds for objecting to it. And, of course, Israel as well is not a party and denies that Palestine is a state and, therefore, denies that Palestine has the legal capacity to confer jurisdiction over these territories to the ICC.”

He added that most legal experts agree Palestine satisfies the criteria for ICC jurisdiction.




Israel's genocidal war in Gaza, which it launched in response to the deadly Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, has killed at least 44,382 Palestinians as of Nov. 30, 2024, and wounded over 105,000, according to various agencies. Of those killed, more than 11,000 were children. (AFP photos)

The ICC, established through the Rome Statute in the late 1990s and operational since 2002, was designed to prosecute individuals for crimes such as genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. However, its jurisdiction excludes major powers like the US, Israel, Russia and China, creating significant gaps in its authority. “It’s a sort of Swiss cheese here in terms of what it covers,” Roth said.

He highlighted that ICC member states are legally obligated to enforce arrest warrants, though enforcement often hinges on domestic politics rather than legal principles. “Then the question of whether the problem is that a state may be bound by the treaty to engage in the arrest and may be bound by customary international law to not engage in the arrest. And those domestic courts would have to deal with that question, and how that would come out is anyone’s guess,” he said.




The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes, but there are doubts if they would ever be arrested because of continued US support for the genocidal Israeli regime. (AFP)

Adding to the complexity, French officials reportedly agreed to oversee the ceasefire’s implementation only after securing assurances that ICC warrants against Israeli leaders would not be enforced. Roth attributed this to the ICC’s reliance on US funding and support, which complicates its willingness to pursue cases against US allies.

“For that, you can draw your own conclusions about why it is that a body, so heavily dependent on US support and funding and assistance with investigation and so forth, might be reluctant to take action against the US,” he said.




Protesters attend a national demonstration in central London on November 30, 2024, demanding a halt to Israel's genocidal war against Palestinians. (AFP)

The US role in shielding Israel from international accountability has drawn criticism, particularly during the Gaza war. While the Biden administration has framed its unwavering support for Israel as essential for regional security, critics argue this stance exacerbates instability.

Zogby cautioned that continued backing of Israel’s military campaigns risks undermining long-term peace efforts, as evidenced by the resurgence of fighting in Syria.

According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor, the militants, mainly from the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, took control of “more than half of Aleppo” within hours on Friday without encountering any resistance from Syrian government forces. The official Syrian media challenged this narrative and claimed to have captured groups of “terrorists.”




Syrian militants patrol in central Aleppo on Nov. 30, 2024, as they pressed a lightning offensive against government forces. (AFP)

While the ceasefire has brought a temporary halt to the violence in Lebanon, the road ahead remains uncertain, particularly on issues related to justice and accountability.

To Roth, the ICC’s efforts to hold Israeli leaders accountable may exemplify the broader difficulties of navigating international law amid powerful political interests. A lasting resolution, he suggested, requires a robust international response addressing the root causes of the conflict.

“The Ray Hanania Radio Show” is broadcast every Thursday in Michigan on WNZK AM 690 Radio at 5 p.m. on the US Arab Radio Network and is sponsored by Arab News. To watch the full episodes and past shows, visit ArabNews.com/RayRadioShow.
 

 


Israeli military tightens media rules over war crimes prosecution concern

Updated 09 January 2025
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Israeli military tightens media rules over war crimes prosecution concern

  • Under the new rules, media interviewing soldiers of the rank of colonel and under will not be able to display their full names or faces, similar to the rules that already exist for pilots, an Israeli military spokesperson says

JERUSALEM: The Israeli military placed new restrictions on media coverage of soldiers on active combat duty amid growing concern at the risk of legal action against reservists traveling abroad over allegations of involvement in war crimes in Gaza.
The move came after an Israeli reservist vacationing in Brazil left the country abruptly when a Brazilian judge ordered federal police to open an investigation following allegations from a pro-Palestinian group that he had committed war crimes while serving in Gaza.
Under the new rules, media interviewing soldiers of the rank of colonel and under will not be able to display their full names or faces, similar to the rules that already exist for pilots and members of special forces units, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesperson told reporters.
The interviewees must not be linked to a specific combat event they participated in.
“This is our new guideline to protect our soldiers and to make sure they are safe from these types of incident hosted by anti-Israel activists around the world,” Shoshani said.
He said that under existing military rules, soldiers were already not supposed to post videos and other images from war zones on social media “even though that’s never perfect and we have a large army.” There were also long-standing rules and guidelines for soldiers traveling abroad, he said.
Shoshani said activist groups, such as the Belgium-based Hind Rajab Foundation, which pushed for the action in Brazil, were “connecting the dots” between soldiers who posted material from Gaza and then posted other photos and videos of themselves while on holiday abroad.
Last year, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as a Hamas leader, Ibrahim Al-Masri, over alleged war crimes in Gaza, drawing outrage in Israel.
Shoshani said there had been “a handful” of cases where reservists traveling abroad had been targeted, in addition to the case in Brazil, all of which had been started by activist groups pushing authorities for an investigation.
“They didn’t open an investigation, they didn’t press charges or anything like that,” he said.


Syria is ‘the cornerstone for regional stability,’ GCC tells UN Security Council

Updated 09 January 2025
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Syria is ‘the cornerstone for regional stability,’ GCC tells UN Security Council

  • US representative says transition process and government that emerges from it must prioritize destruction of Assad regime’s chemical weapons stockpiles
  • Syrian envoy says new Syria ‘willing to play a positive role in international arena … promote international and regional peace and security, will not engage in any conflict or war’

NEW YORK CITY: The Gulf Cooperation Council on Wednesday stressed the need to respect the independence and territorial integrity of Syria, reject foreign interference, combat terrorism and respect the country’s religious and cultural diversity as it embarks on a new chapter of its history after the fall of long-time dictator Bashar Assad.

Speaking on behalf of the GCC, Kuwait’s permanent representative to the UN, Tareq Albanai, expressed its support for a comprehensive and inclusive political process, moves toward national reconciliation, and efforts to rebuild the state.

He called for national unity and comprehensive dialogue, adding that the “stability of Syria is the cornerstone for stability in region.”

Albanai was speaking at the Security Council’s first meeting of the year on Syria. He told members that the GCC decided to participate in the meeting only “to confirm our determination to help the country politically, economically, developmentally and humanitarianly.”

GCC member states categorically reject the repeated attacks on Syria by Israeli occupation forces and call for their immediate withdrawal from Syrian territories, he added.

“We renew our firm position that the Golan is Syrian territory and condemn the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied Golan,” Albanai said.

He also called for the lifting of the economic sanctions imposed on Syria during the civil war.

Egypt’s permanent representative to the UN, Osama Abdel Khalek, speaking on behalf of the UN Arab Group, also condemned the ongoing Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights, and what he described as “Israel’s opportunistic exploitation of the current situation to occupy further Syrian territories, bomb cities and infrastructure.”

He urged the Security Council to intervene and put an end to the Israeli “aggression, occupation” and “the illegal presence of all foreign forces in Syria.”

Syria’s permanent representative to the UN, Kusay Aldahak, told the council that caretaker authorities in the country are willing to build “friendly relations with all UN member states based on cooperation and shared interests and away from the policies of polarization.”

He added that the “new Syria is willing to play a positive role in the international arena. It will promote international and regional peace and security, and will not engage in any conflict or war.”

Aldahak called on the UN to “immediately and fully lift the unilateral coercive measures; provide necessary financing to meet needs and recover basic services, mainly electricity; support livelihood projects and sustainable development; reconstruct damaged service facilities; ensure de-mining; rid Syria of the remnants of war; and allow dignified refugees to return to their cities and homes.”

The UN’s humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, told council members that close to 13 million Syrians face acute food insecurity at a time when the World Food Programme has been forced to reduce the amount of food assistance it provides by 80 per cent in the past two years as a result of funding shortfalls.

More than 620,000 Syrians remain displaced as a result of the operation to remove Assad in November and December, on top of the 7 million who had already been displaced by more than a

decade of civil war. In the northwest of the country alone, 2 million people are living in camps, Fletcher said.

US ambassador Dorothy Shea said the transition process and the Syrian government that emerges from it must ensure any chemical weapons that remain in the former Assad regime’s stockpiles are secured and destroyed.

“We are encouraged by the cooperation to date and call for the continued commitment of relevant actors in Syria to work with the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the United Nations, and other state and non-state partners to chart a course for the complete and verifiable elimination of any remaining elements of a chemical weapons program, and assist released detainees and the families of those whose whereabouts remain unknown,” she said.

Shea also urged the interim government to deter individual acts of vengeance, and to partner with international institutions to identify ways to ensure that those guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity are held accountable.

Shea said the US welcomes “positive messages from Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham but will ultimately look for progress in actions, not words. We are looking for actions and words that will explore policies that prioritize the well-being of the Syrian people.”

The UN’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, said he stands ready to work with the caretaker authorities “on how the nascent and important ideas and steps so far articulated and initiated could be developed towards a credible and inclusive political transition.”

The UK’s permanent representative to the UN, Barbara Woodward, said she was encouraged by the timelines set by the interim authorities for drafting a new constitution and holding elections and a national dialogue, and by their early engagement with the international community.

She called for their continued cooperation with UN as she welcomed the caretaker government’s efforts “to secure the chemical weapons stock and work with OPCW to fully declare and verify the destruction of such weapons. Now is the moment to close the Syria chemical weapons file once and for all.”

Russian ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said: “Syria has more than enough problems and their severity should in no case be underestimated.”

He warned of the “fairly high risk of intensification of hostilities” in many parts of the country, in particular Aleppo and Quneitra. He also highlighted “the direct threat to the territorial integrity of Syria” arising from “the unlawful actions of Israel, which is carrying out a policy of fait accompli in the occupied Golan Heights, and 500 square kilometers of Syrian land have already been seized.”

Nebenzia blamed sanctions imposed by the US “and its satellites” for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the country. As result of these sanctions, the Syrian economy is “under extreme pressure and is not able to cope with the challenges facing the country,” he added.


Egypt unveils ancient rock-cut tombs and burial shafts in Luxor

Updated 08 January 2025
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Egypt unveils ancient rock-cut tombs and burial shafts in Luxor

CAIRO: Egypt unveiled several discoveries near the famed city of Luxor on Wednesday, including ancient rock-cut tombs and burial shafts dating back 3,600 years.

They were unearthed at the causeway of Queen Hatshepsut’s funerary temple at Deir Al-Bahri on the Nile’s West Bank, according to a statement released by Zahi Hawass Foundation for Antiquities & Heritage. It said it worked in tandem with the Supreme Council of Antiquities on the site since September 2022.

Artifacts found at the tombs included bronze coins with the image of Alexander the Great dating to the Time of Ptolemy I (367-283), children’s toys made of clay, cartonnage and funerary masks that covered mummies, winged scarabs, beads and funerary amulets.

Hawass told reporters that the discoveries could “reconstruct history” and offer an understanding of the type of programs ancient Egyptians designed inside a temple.

The Archeologists also found the remains of Queen Hatshepsut’s Valley Temple, rock-cut tombs dating back to the Middle Kingdom (1938 B.C. — 1630 B.C.), burial shafts from the 17th dynasty, the tomb of Djehuti-Mes and part of the Assassif Ptolemaic Necropolis.

The rock-cut tombs had been previously robbed during the Ptolemaic period and later. Still, the Egyptian teams uncovered some artifacts such as pottery tables that were used to offer bread, wine and meat.

Inside the burial shafts dating back to 1580 B.C. — 1550 B.C., anthropoid wooden coffins were found, including one that belonged to a young child. It remained intact since its burial some 3,600 years ago.


Will Lebanon fill the presidential power vacuum or slide into further uncertainty?

Updated 08 January 2025
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Will Lebanon fill the presidential power vacuum or slide into further uncertainty?

  • Contenders for the presidency carry the baggage of past conflicts, failures in office, and problematic allegiances
  • Weakening of Hezbollah and the ouster of Syria’s Assad are likely to influence power dynamics in the Lebanese parliament 

DUBAI: Wracked by economic crisis and the recent conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, Lebanon faces a historic opportunity this week to break its political paralysis and elect a new president.

There are many contenders for the coveted role, but whoever is chosen by members of the Lebanese Parliament to form the next government will have important implications for the nation’s recovery and trajectory.

If Thursday’s election is successful, it could end the debilitating power vacuum that has prevailed since Michel Aoun’s presidential term ended in October 2022, leaving governance in Lebanon in limbo.

Settling on a candidate is now more urgent than ever, as Lebanon faces mounting pressure to stabilize its political and economic landscape ahead of the impending expiration of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah.

None of Lebanon’s major parliamentary blocs have officially announced a presidential candidate, but several potential contenders have emerged.

Balancing the demilitarization of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces will require delicate maneuvering. (AFP)

One possible candidate is General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, who local media have tipped as the most likely winner.

Widely regarded as politically neutral, Aoun’s military experience and perceived impartiality could bring stability and credibility, both domestically and internationally.

His success would hinge on building a capable Cabinet with a comprehensive plan to stabilize the country’s governance, economic recovery and security, as well as lead postwar reconstruction efforts and the return of those displaced.

Balancing the demilitarization of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern territories in accordance with the UN Resolution 1701 would also require delicate maneuvering.

However, his candidacy faces legal hurdles due to a constitutional requirement that two years must pass between his military role and the presidency.

Another potential contender is Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces. As a vocal Hezbollah critic with significant support among some Christian communities, Geagea could appeal to anti-Hezbollah factions.

His extensive political experience and advocacy for reform could help him to prioritize state-building, which many Lebanese see as crucial for the country’s future. His anti-Hezbollah stance could also restructure Lebanon’s stance in regional conflicts and international relations.

However, his polarizing history from Lebanon’s civil war could prove to be a barrier to national unity, raising fears that his candidacy could deepen divisions in Lebanon’s already fragmented political system.

Suleiman Frangieh, head of the pro-Hezbollah Marada movement, is another possibility, but risks alienating Christian communities and international allies.

Hailing from a prominent political dynasty, Frangieh is the grandson of a former president and has himself held various governmental and parliamentary roles. However, being a close ally of Hezbollah and the former Assad regime in Syria makes him a polarizing figure.

Finally, Jihad Azour, a former finance minister and International Monetary Fund official, represents a technocratic option with broad political appeal.

Lebanon faces a historic opportunity this week to break its political paralysis. (AFP)

He enjoys support from key factions, including the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party led by Walid Jumblatt, several Sunni MPs, influential Maronite religious figures and opposition groups.

Azour’s economic expertise could help to address Lebanon’s financial crisis, but some among the opposition view him as a continuation of past administrations.

Securing the presidency in Lebanon requires broad-based political consensus — a challenge in its deeply divided Parliament. Any major faction can block a nomination that does not align with its agenda.

Under Lebanon’s constitution, presidential elections require a two-thirds majority in the first round of parliamentary voting (86 out of 128 members) and a simple majority of 65 votes in subsequent rounds.

The Lebanese president’s powers, as defined by the constitution, reflect a blend of ceremonial and executive functions within a confessional system of governance that allocates political roles based on religious representation.

The president’s powers are limited by those of the prime minister, the council of ministers and Parliament, reflecting Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system established by the 1943 National Pact and reaffirmed by the 1989 Taif Agreement.

Lebanese presidents are traditionally drawn from the Maronite Christian community, as stipulated by the confessional system. This role is critical in maintaining the delicate political balance in the country.

Thursday’s election comes at a turbulent moment for Lebanon and its neighbors, which could impact the vote’s outcome.

A UNIFIL military vehicle conducts a patrol in the southern Lebanese village of Borj El Mlouk. (AFP)

Hezbollah has long dominated Lebanon’s political landscape, parliamentary dynamics and government composition. However, its devastating war with Israel, which began in October 2023 and ended with a fragile ceasefire in November 2024, gutted its leadership and depleted much of its public support.

Hezbollah’s failure to deter Israel’s war in Gaza or mount a sufficient defense against Israeli air and ground attacks in southern and eastern Lebanon has raised doubts about its remaining political influence in steering the selection of a presidential candidate.

The election also follows the sudden downfall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, toppled by armed opposition groups after a 13-year civil war. This shift has profoundly impacted Syria’s relationship with Hezbollah and other factions in Lebanon.

Syria’s influence on Lebanon historically included backing Maronite militias, interfering in political decisions, maintaining a 29-year military occupation and facilitating the flow of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah.

A destroyed mosque in the southern Lebanese village of Khiam. (AFP)

The change of power in Damascus adds uncertainty to Lebanon’s already fragile situation.

Regardless of these regional shifts, Lebanon’s next president will face the daunting task of guiding the country out of its economic mire while leading postwar reconstruction efforts.

Lebanon’s economic situation remains dire, with its financial collapse in 2019 described by the World Bank as one of the worst in modern history.

The Lebanese pound has lost more than 98 percent of its value against the US dollar on the black market, leading to hyperinflation and eroding the purchasing power of citizens.

Public services, including electricity, health care and water supply, have nearly collapsed, and unemployment has soared. More than 80 percent of the population now lives below the poverty line, according to the UN.

Efforts to secure international aid, including talks with the IMF, have stalled due to political gridlock and resistance to reforms. The new president will need regional and international standing to rally support for Lebanon’s recovery.

Whoever secures the presidency will face a formidable task in addressing Lebanon’s economic, political and social challenges. The alternative is continued paralysis, with devastating consequences for the country’s future.

 


Libya’s eastern parliament approves transitional justice law

Updated 08 January 2025
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Libya’s eastern parliament approves transitional justice law

  • The UN mission to Libya has repeatedly called for an inclusive, rights-based transitional justice and reconciliation process in the country

TRIPOLI: Libya’s eastern-based parliament has approved a national reconciliation and transitional justice law, three lawmakers said, a measure aimed at reunifying the oil-producing country after over a decade of factional conflict.

The House of Representatives spokesperson, Abdullah Belaihaq, said on the X platform that the legislation was passed on Tuesday by a majority of the session’s attendees in Libya’s largest second city Benghazi.

However, implementing the law could be challenging as Libya has been divided since a 2014 civil war that spawned two rival administrations vying for power in east and west following the NATO-backed uprising that toppled Muammar Qaddafi in 2011.

“I hope that it (the law) will be in effect all over the country and will not face any difficulty,” House member Abdulmenam Alorafi told Reuters by phone on Wednesday.

The UN mission to Libya has repeatedly called for an inclusive, rights-based transitional justice and reconciliation process in the North African country.

A political process to end years of institutional division and outright warfare has been stalled since an election scheduled for December 2021 collapsed amid disputes over the eligibility of the main candidates.

In Tripoli, there is the Government of National Unity under Prime Minister Abdulhamid Al-Dbeibah that was installed through a UN-backed process in 2021, but the parliament no longer recognizes its legitimacy. Dbeibah has vowed not to cede power to a new government without national elections.

There are two competing legislative bodies — the HoR that was elected in 2014 as the national parliament with a four-year mandate to oversee a political transition, and the High Council of State in Tripoli formed as part of a 2015 political agreement and drawn from a parliament first elected in 2012.

The Tripoli-based Presidential Council, which came to power with GNU, has been working on a reconciliation project and holding “a comprehensive conference” with the support of the UN and African Union. But it has been unable to bring all rival groups together because of their continuing differences.