New militias sow future danger for war-weary Sudan

New members of Sudan's armed forces display their skills during a graduation ceremony in the eastern city of Gedaref on November 5, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 04 December 2024
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New militias sow future danger for war-weary Sudan

  • They established the so-called joint forces to fight on the army’s side, while other groups “wavered, before throwing their weight behind the RSF,” Hamrour said
  • Historically, though ethnic or tribal armed groups “may ally themselves with the regular army, they remain essentially independent,” according to Ameer Babiker, author of the book “Sudan’s Peace: A Quagmire of Militias and Irregular Armies”

CAIRO: Mohamed Idris, 27, has despaired of ever finding a job in war-torn Sudan. Instead, he’s now set his sights on a training camp on the Eritrean border, hoping to join a militia.
“I got my university degree but there aren’t any job opportunities, if I get into a training camp I can at least defend my country and my people,” he told AFP from Kassala in Sudan, the nearest city to the border.
Analysts say the growing role such militias and armed groups are playing in the war will only prolong the country’s suffering.
Sudan’s war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began in April 2023, sparking what the UN calls the world’s worst displacement crisis.
More than eight million people have been uprooted internally and more than three million have fled abroad.
The northeast African country is on the brink of famine, according to aid agencies, and a UN investigation found both sides committed rights abuses with the RSF particularly implicated in sexual violence.
In Sudan’s east, Kassala and Gedaref have so far been spared the chaos of war, but host more than a million people who have fled fighting elsewhere.
In both cities, AFP correspondents have seen convoys of four-wheel drives mounted with anti-aircraft weapons speed through the streets.
Each vehicle, blasting its horn as it went, was manned by a handful of young men waving assault rifles — though the nearest battles are hundreds of kilometers (miles) away.
The men, like Idris, are part of a generation who have lost their futures to the flames of Sudan’s war.

Now, they represent recruiting potential for new armed groups being formed, particularly along ethnic and tribal lines in the country’s army-controlled east.
“The forces I want to join are from my tribe and my family,” said Idris.
According to Sudanese analyst and former culture and information minister Faisal Mohammed Saleh, “these groups haven’t yet joined the fray in the current war.”
“But the fear is that they could be preparing for future rounds,” he told AFP.
Sudan, which has only known brief interludes of civilian rule since independence from Britain in 1956, is rife with armed groups, some with the capacity of small armies.
For decades, many were locked in wars with the central government, claiming to champion the rights of marginalized ethnic minorities or regions.
In 2020, most signed a peace agreement with the government in Khartoum, and several rebel leaders subsequently became senior officials in the government of army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan.
“In the first months of the war, many of these groups were neutral, but have since declared allegiance to the army,” Sudanese policy researcher Qusay Hamrour told AFP.
They established the so-called joint forces to fight on the army’s side, while other groups “wavered, before throwing their weight behind the RSF,” Hamrour said.
According to former information minister Saleh, “what’s new now is the eastern Sudanese groups, most of which are training inside Eritrea.”
Eyewitnesses told AFP earlier this year that they saw Sudanese fighters being trained in at least five locations in neighboring Eritrea, which has not commented on the allegations.
The witnesses said the camps were linked to Burhan’s army or to figures from the former Islamist-backed regime of ousted dictator Omar Al-Bashir.

Historically, though ethnic or tribal armed groups “may ally themselves with the regular army, they remain essentially independent,” according to Ameer Babiker, author of the book “Sudan’s Peace: A Quagmire of Militias and Irregular Armies.”
Khartoum has long relied on armed groups to fight its wars in other parts of Sudan.
In response to an uprising in Darfur in 2003, Bashir unleashed the Janjaweed militia, leading to war crimes charges against him and others.
The RSF, formalized by Bashir in 2013, are descended from the Janjaweed.
In 2021, army chief Burhan led a coup that derailed a fragile civilian transition that followed Bashir’s own ouster.
By April 2023, a long-running power struggle between Burhan and his deputy, RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, erupted into all-out war.
Now, what Babiker calls “the weakness of the Sudanese state” has compelled it to again to depend on militias to secure territory.
He said this strategy would “only lead to these groups growing stronger, making them impossible to bypass in the future.”
Already, there have emerged “multiple centers of decision-making within the army,” he told AFP.
According to a May report from the International Crisis Group think tank, “both main belligerents are struggling with command and control.”
Burhan, increasingly reliant on powers from the Bashir regime “as well as communal militias and other armed groups ... risks losing his hold on the various factions.”
Meanwhile the RSF is “an ever more motley assortment of tribal militias and warlords,” according to Crisis Group, which says that both wartime coalitions have become more unwieldy.

 


Syria de facto leader Al-Sharaa phones congratulations to newly elected Lebanon president Aoun

Updated 8 sec ago
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Syria de facto leader Al-Sharaa phones congratulations to newly elected Lebanon president Aoun

CAIRO: Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa called newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on the phone and congratulated him for assuming the presidency, Syria’s ruling general command reported on Sunday.


Eight killed, 50 injured in explosion of gas station, gas storage tank in Yemen’s Al-Bayda, sources say

A Yemeni walks and looks through debris and rubble at a destroyed gas station in the northwestern Hajjah province. (AFP)
Updated 20 min 37 sec ago
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Eight killed, 50 injured in explosion of gas station, gas storage tank in Yemen’s Al-Bayda, sources say

CAIRO: Eight people were killed and 50 others injured in an explosion of a gas station and a gas storage tank in Yemen’s Al-Bayda province, a medical source and a local official said.

 


Russia eyes Libya to replace Syria as Africa launchpad

Updated 12 January 2025
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Russia eyes Libya to replace Syria as Africa launchpad

  • On December 18 the Wall Street Journal, citing Libyan and American officials, said there had been a transfer of Russian radars and defense systems from Syria to Libya, including S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries

PARIS: The fall of Russian ally Bashar Assad in Syria has disrupted the Kremlin’s strategy not only for the Mediterranean but also for Africa, pushing it to focus on Libya as a potential foothold, experts say.
Russia runs a military port and an air base on the Syrian coast, designed to facilitate its operations in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, especially the Sahel, Sudan, and the Central African Republic.
However, this model is in jeopardy with the abrupt departure of the Syrian ruler.
Although Syria’s new leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, has called Russia an “important country,” saying “we do not want Russia to leave Syria in the way that some wish,” the reshuffling of cards in Syria is pushing Russia to seek a strategic retreat toward Libya.
In Libya, Russian mercenaries already support Khalifa Haftar, a field marshal controlling the east of the country, against the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) which has UN recognition and is supported by Turkiye.
“The goal is notably to preserve the ongoing Russian missions in Africa,” said Jalel Harchaoui at the RUSI think tank in the UK.
“It’s a self-preservation reflex” for Russia which is anxious “to mitigate the deterioration of its position in Syria,” he told AFP.
In May 2024, Swiss investigative consortium “All Eyes On Wagner” identified Russian activities at around 10 Libyan sites, including the port of Tobruk, where military equipment was delivered in February and April of last year.
There were around 800 Russian troops present in February 2024, and 1,800 in May.
On December 18 the Wall Street Journal, citing Libyan and American officials, said there had been a transfer of Russian radars and defense systems from Syria to Libya, including S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries.

Since Assad’s fall on December 8, “a notable volume of Russian military resources has been shipped to Libya from Belarus and Russia,” said Harchaoui, adding there had been troop transfers as well.
Ukrainian intelligence claimed on January 3 that Moscow planned “to use Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships to transport military equipment and weapons” to Libya.
Beyond simply representing a necessary replacement of “one proxy with another,” the shift is a quest for “continuity,” said expert Emadeddin Badi on the Atlantic Council’s website, underscoring Libya’s role as “a component of a long-standing strategy to expand Moscow’s strategic foothold in the region.”

According to Badi, “Assad offered Moscow a foothold against NATO’s eastern flank and a stage to test military capabilities.”
Haftar, he said, presents a similar opportunity, “a means to disrupt western interests, exploit Libya’s fractured politics, and extend Moscow’s influence into Africa.”
The Tripoli government and Italy, Libya’s former colonial master, have expressed concern over Russian movements, closely observed by the European Union and NATO.
Several sources say the United States has tried to persuade Haftar to deny the Russians a permanent installation at the port of Tobruk that they have coveted since 2023.
It seems already clear the Kremlin will struggle to find the same level of ease in Libya that it had during Assad’s reign.
“Syria was convenient,” said Ulf Laessing, the Bamako-based head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
“It was this black box with no Western diplomats, no journalists. They could basically do what they wanted,” he told AFP.
“But in Libya, it will be much more complicated. It’s difficult to keep things secret there and Russian presence will be much more visible,” he said.
Moscow will also have to contend with other powers, including Turkiye, which is allied with the GNU, as well as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, who are patrons of Haftar.
In Libya, torn into two blocs since the ouster of longtime leader Muammar Qaddafi in February 2011, “everybody’s trying to work with both sides,” said Laessing.
Over the past year, even Turkiye has moved closer to Haftar, seeking potential cooperation on economic projects and diplomatic exchanges.
Russia will also be mindful to have a plan B should things go wrong for its Libyan ally.
“We must not repeat the mistake made in Syria, betting on a local dictator without an alternative,” said Vlad Shlepchenko, military correspondent for the pro-Kremlin media Tsargrad.
Haftar, meanwhile, is unlikely to want to turn his back on western countries whose tacit support he has enjoyed.
“There are probably limits to what the Russians can do in Libya,” said Laessing.
 

 


Turkiye’s Kurdish leaders meet jailed politician as the two sides inch toward peace

Updated 12 January 2025
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Turkiye’s Kurdish leaders meet jailed politician as the two sides inch toward peace

  • The armed conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state, which started in August 1984 and has claimed tens of thousands of lives, has seen several failed attempts at peace

ISTANBUL: A delegation from one of Turkiye’s biggest pro-Kurdish political parties met a leading figure of the Kurdish movement in prison Saturday, the latest step in a tentative process to end the country’s 40-year conflict, the party said.
Three senior figures from the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party, or DEM, met the party’s former co-chairperson, Selahattin Demirtas, at Edirne prison near the Greek border.
The meeting with Demirtas — jailed in 2016 on terrorism charges that most observers, including the European Court of Human Rights, have labelled politically motivated — took place two weeks after DEM members met Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned head of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.
While the PKK has led an armed insurgency against the Turkish state since the 1980s, the DEM is the latest party representing left-leaning Kurdish nationalism. Both DEM and its predecessors have faced state measures largely condemned as repression, including the jailing of elected officials and the banned of parties.
In a statement released on social media after the meeting, Demirtas called on all sides to “focus on a common future where everyone, all of us, will win.”
Demirtas credited Ocalan with raising the chance that the PKK could lay down its arms. Ocalan has been jailed on Imrali island in the Sea of Marmara since 1999 for treason over his leadership of the PKK, considered a terrorist organization by Turkiye and most Western states.
Demirtas led the DEM between 2014 and 2018, when it was known as the Peoples’ Democratic Party, or HDP, and he is still widely admired. He said that despite “good intentions,” it was necessary for “concrete steps that inspire confidence … to be taken quickly.”
One of the DEM delegation, Ahmet Turk, said: “I believe that Turks need Kurds and Kurds need Turks. Our wish is for Turkiye to come to a point where it can build democracy in the Middle East.”
The armed conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state, which started in August 1984 and has claimed tens of thousands of lives, has seen several failed attempts at peace.
Despite being imprisoned for a quarter of a century, Ocalan remains central to any chance of success due to his ongoing popularity among many of Turkiye’s Kurds. In a statement released on Dec. 29, he signaled his willingness to “contribute positively” to renewed efforts.
Meanwhile, in an address Saturday to ruling party supporters in Diyarbakir, the largest city in the Kurdish-majority southeast, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for the disbandment of the PKK and the surrender of its weapons.
This would allow DEM “the opportunity to develop itself, strengthening our internal front against the increasing conflicts in our region, in short, closing the half-century-old separatist terror bracket and consigning it to history ... forever,” he said in televised comments.
The latest drive for peace came when Devlet Bahceli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party and a close ally of Erdogan, surprised everyone in October when he suggested that Ocalan could be granted parole if he renounced violence and disbanded the PKK.
Erdogan offered tacit support for Bahceli’s suggestion a week later, and Ocalan said he was ready to work for peace, in a message conveyed by his nephew.

 


Four Daesh members, including two leaders, killed in eastern Iraq

Updated 12 January 2025
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Four Daesh members, including two leaders, killed in eastern Iraq

  • The caliphate collapsed in 2017 in Iraq, where it once had a base just a 30-minute drive from Baghdad, and in Syria in 2019, after a sustained military campaign by a US-led coalition

BAGHDAD: Four members of the Daesh, including two senior leaders, were killed in an airstrike carried out by Iraqi aircraft in the Hamrin Mountains in eastern Iraq, security officials said on Saturday.
The Iraqi Security Media Cell, an official body responsible for disseminating security information, said in a statement four bodies of Daesh militants were found in the area where Iraqi F-16 fighter jets carried out the strike on Friday.
Talib Al-Mousawi, an official at Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) — a grouping of armed factions originally set up to fight Daesh in 2014 that was subsequently recognized as an official security force, told Reuters the dead included two top Daesh leaders in the Diyala province in eastern Iraq.
The identity of another militant will be determined following an examination, the Security Media Cell said.
At the height of its power from 2014-2017, the Daesh “caliphate” imposed death and torture on communities in vast swathes of Iraq and Syria and had influence across the Middle East.
The caliphate collapsed in 2017 in Iraq, where it once had a base just a 30-minute drive from Baghdad, and in Syria in 2019, after a sustained military campaign by a US-led coalition.
Daesh responded by scattering in autonomous cells; its leadership is clandestine and its overall size is hard to quantify. The UN estimates it at 10,000 in its heartlands.