Russian bases in Syria threatened by insurgent advance, say Moscow’s war bloggers

Two strategically-important Russian military facilities in Syria and Moscow's very presence in the Middle East are under serious threat from rapidly advancing insurgents, Russian war bloggers have warned. (AFP/File)
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Updated 08 December 2024
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Russian bases in Syria threatened by insurgent advance, say Moscow’s war bloggers

  • Rapid advances by the insurgents threaten to undermine Russia’s geopolitical clout in the Middle East
  • Russian war bloggers say the most immediate threat is to the future of Russia’s Hmeimim air base in Syria’s Latakia province and to its naval facility at Tartous on the coast

DAMASCUS: Two strategically-important Russian military facilities in Syria and Moscow’s very presence in the Middle East are under serious threat from rapidly advancing insurgents, Russian war bloggers have warned.
With Russian military resources mostly tied down in Ukraine where Moscow’s forces are rushing to take more territory before Donald Trump comes to power in the US in January, Russia’s ability to influence the situation on the ground in Syria is far more limited than in 2015 when it intervened decisively to prop up Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Rapid advances by the insurgents threaten to undermine Russia’s geopolitical clout in the Middle East and its ability to project power in the region, across the Mediterranean and into Africa. They also risk dealing an embarrassing setback to President Vladimir Putin, who casts Russia’s intervention in Syria as an example of how Moscow can use force to shape events far away and compete with the West.
But Russian war bloggers, some of whom are close to the Russian Defense Ministry and whom the Russian authorities allow greater freedom to speak out than the military, say the most immediate threat is to the future of Russia’s Hmeimim air base in Syria’s Latakia province and to its naval facility at Tartous on the coast.
The Tartous facility is Russia’s only Mediterranean repair and replenishment hub, and Moscow has used Syria as a staging post to fly its military contractors in and out of Africa.
Influential Russian war blogger “Rybar,” who is close to the Russian Defense Ministry and has over 1.3 million followers on his Telegram channel, said Moscow’s forces were facing a grave threat.
“In reality we need to understand that the insurgents will not stop,” Rybar warned.
“They will try to inflict the maximum defeat and the maximum reputational and physical damage on the representatives of the Russian Federation (in Syria) and in particular to destroy our military bases.”
Relying on the Syrian army alone was a lost cause, he added, saying it would continue to fall back unless properly supported by the Russian air force and specialists.
The Russian Defense Ministry could not be reached for comment on a non-working day. The Russian Embassy in Damascus has advised Russian nationals to leave Syria.
Asked on Saturday in Doha about the fate of the Russian bases, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was “not in the business of guessing” what would happen, but said Moscow was doing all it could to prevent “terrorists” from prevailing.
He said he was not worried about how events in Syria would affect his own reputation or that of Russia, but was worried about the fate of the Syrian people.

RUSSIAN FORCES BADLY EXPOSED, SAYS BLOGGER
The Russian air force has been helping government forces launch air strikes against insurgents and the Kremlin has said it still supports Assad and is analizing the situation to see what help is needed to stabilize the situation.
However, Russia’s “Fighterbomber” war blogger, who has over 500,000 followers, said Moscow’s forces in Syria were badly exposed and that losing the Hmeimim air base would mean losing the ability to carry out air strikes which he said was 75 percent of Moscow’s capabilities there.
“The Hmeimim airfield is not a multi-story industrial project with basements. It is a field with lightly assembled buildings on top, which will cease to function as soon as the enemy gets within artillery or drone flight range,” he said.
“The situation with the naval base in Tartous is about the same. Of course, it can be defended and held for quite a long time if there is someone and something to do it, but it will either not be able to function at all, or in a very limited way.”
Nor, he warned, would a full evacuation of all of Russia’s military equipment be possible if it became necessary.
“Therefore, the main task of our forces in Syria is to prevent the enemy from entering Latakia, even if we have to temporarily give up the rest of the territory.”
With over 600,000 followers, war blogger “Starshe Eddi” said Russia had paid a heavy price for a foothold in Syria.
“Ten years there, dead Russian soldiers, billions of roubles spent and thousands of tons of ammunition expended — they must be compensated somehow and somehow,” he wrote.
“The only thing that can...give us a chance to compensate for the current failure and the resources we have used up is our retention of the Latakia and Tartous provinces.”
Igor Girkin, a prominent Russian ex-militia commander who fought in Ukraine and who is serving a four-year jail term after accusing Putin and the army’s top brass of mistakes in the Ukraine war, said Moscow’s position in Syria had always been exposed from a reinforcement and supply point of view.
“Now our enemies have naturally decided to take advantage of our weakness at the moment when we are busy on the Ukrainian front,” he wrote from prison.
“We are overstretched. The defeat of the Syrian side will also be our defeat.”


Putin says fall of Assad not a ‘defeat’ for Russia

Updated 10 sec ago
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Putin says fall of Assad not a ‘defeat’ for Russia

  • Assad’s departure came over 13 years after crackdown on democracy protests precipitated civil war
  • Russia was Assad’s key backer and swept to his aid in 2015, turning the tide of the conflict in his favor

MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the fall of ex-Syrian leader Bashar Assad was not a “defeat” for Russia, claiming Moscow had achieved its goals in the country.
Assad fled to Moscow earlier this month after a shock militant advance ended half a century of rule by the Assad family, marked by repression and allegations of vast human rights abuses and civil war.
His departure came more than 13 years after his crackdown on democracy protests precipitated a civil war.
Russia was Assad’s key backer and had swept to his aid in 2015, turning the tide of the conflict.
“You want to present what is happening in Syria as a defeat for Russia,” Putin said at his annual end-of-year press conference.
“I assure you it is not,” he said, responding to a question from an American journalist.
“We came to Syria 10 years ago so that a terrorist enclave would not be created there like in Afghanistan. On the whole, we have achieved our goal,” Putin said.
The Kremlin leader said he had yet to meet with Assad in Moscow, but planned to do so soon.
“I haven’t yet seen president Assad since his arrival in Moscow but I plan to, I will definitely speak with him,” he said.
Putin was addressing the situation in Syria publicly for the first time since Assad’s fall.
Moscow is keen to secure the fate of two military bases in the country.
The Tartus naval base and Hmeimim air base are Russia’s only military outposts outside the former Soviet Union and have been key to the Kremlin’s activities in Africa and the Middle East.
Putin said there was support for Russia keeping hold of the bases.
“We maintain contacts with all those who control the situation there, with all the countries of the region. An overwhelming majority of them say they are interested in our military bases staying there,” Putin said.
He also said Russia had evacuated 4,000 Iranian soldiers from the country at the request from Tehran.


Syrian girls’ right to schooling unrestricted, new education minister says

Updated 39 min 27 sec ago
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Syrian girls’ right to schooling unrestricted, new education minister says

  • New rulers promise equal treatment for all minority groups
  • Education minister assures girls’ right to education remains unchanged
  • Half of Syria’s schools destroyed or damaged, Qadri says

DAMASCUS: Syria will remove all references to the former ruling Baath party from its educational system as of next week but will not otherwise change school curricula or restrict the rights of girls to learn, the country’s new education minister said.
“Education is a red line for the Syrian people, more important than food and water,” Nazir Mohammad Al-Qadri said in an interview from his office in Damascus.
“The right to education is not limited to one specific gender. ... There may be more girls in our schools than boys,” he said.
The secular, pan-Arab nationalist Baath Party governed Syria since a 1963 coup d’etat, seeing education as an important tool for instilling life-long loyalty among the young to the country’s authoritarian ruling system.
President Bashar Assad was toppled on Dec. 8 by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist rebel group that some Syrians fear may seek to implement a conservative form of Islamist governance.
But Qadri’s plans reflect their wider management approach and moderate messaging so far.
Syria has long been seen to have one of the Arab world’s strongest education systems, a reputation that has largely survived 13 years of civil war.
Qadri said religion — both Muslim and Christian — will continue to be taught as a subject in school.
Primary schools will remain mixed between boys and girls, while secondary education will stay largely segregated, he said.
“After primary school, there were always schools for females and schools for males. We won’t change that,” said Qadri, who had taken to his ornately-furnished office so recently that he had not yet procured Syria’s new green, white and black flag.
Syria’s new rulers, who have long-since disavowed their former Al-Qaeda links, have said that all of Syria’s minority groups including Kurds, Christians, Druze and Alawites will be treated equal as the new government focuses on rebuilding.
They face a formidable challenge.
Syria remains under tight Western sanctions.
Entire cities were levelled in 13 years of war that Qadri said had also left about half the country’s 18,000 schools damaged or destroyed.
But the rebels have moved into government fast, extending a hand to former state employees who have shown up to work in droves.
Most of the new ministers are young — in their 30s or 40s — making 54-year-old Qadri among the oldest in government.
Born and raised in Damascus, he was imprisoned by the Assad regime in 2008 on what he said were spurious charges of inciting sectarian strife, preventing him from finishing his bachelor’s degree.
He was released a decade later and fled to northern Idlib, then under the control of HTS, becoming education minister in its Salvation Government in 2022.
He is currently finishing his masters thesis in Arabic language.
With the political and social contours of the new Syrian state still being drawn, Qadri said students would not be tested on their mandatory “nationalist studies” — previously a vehicle for teaching Baathism and Assad family history — this year.


Palestinian health ministry says 4 killed in Israeli West Bank strike

Updated 19 December 2024
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Palestinian health ministry says 4 killed in Israeli West Bank strike

RAMALLAH: The Palestinian health ministry said Thursday that an Israeli air strike on a car killed four Palestinians and wounded three near the occupied West Bank city of Tulkarem.
The ministry announced that the Palestinians were killed “as a result of the (Israeli) bombing of a vehicle in Tulkarem camp,” which the Israeli army did not immediately confirm to AFP.


Turkiye, Iran leaders at Muslim summit in Cairo

Updated 14 min 30 sec ago
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Turkiye, Iran leaders at Muslim summit in Cairo

  • Relations between Egypt and Iran have been strained for decades, but diplomatic contacts have intensified since Cairo became a mediator in the war in Gaza

CAIRO: The leaders of Turkiye and Iran were in Egypt on Thursday for a summit of eight Muslim-majority countries, meeting for the first time since the ouster of Syria’s president Bashar Assad.
Turkiye historically backed the opposition to Assad, while Iran supported his rule.
The gathering of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation, also known as the Developing-8, was being held against a backdrop of regional turmoil including the conflict in Gaza, a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon and unrest in Syria.
In a speech to the summit, Turkiye’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for unity and reconciliation in Syria, urging “the restoration of Syria’s territorial integrity and unity.”
He also voiced hope for “the establishment of a Syria free of terrorism,” where “all religious sects and ethnic groups live side by side in peace.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian urged action to address the crises in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, saying that it is a “religious, legal and human duty to prevent further harm” to those suffering in these conflict zones.
Pezeshkian, who arrived in Cairo on Wednesday, is the first Iranian president to visit Egypt since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who visited in 2013.
Relations between Egypt and Iran have been strained for decades, but diplomatic contacts have intensified since Cairo became a mediator in the war in Gaza.
Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi visited Egypt in October, while his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty traveled to Tehran in July to attend Pezeshkian’s inauguration.
Ahead of the summit, the Iranian top diplomat said he hoped it would “send a strong message to the world that the Israeli aggressions and violations in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria” would end “immediately.”
Erdogan was in Egypt earlier this year, and discussed with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi economic cooperation as well as regional conflicts.
Established in 1997, the D-8 aims to foster cooperation among member states, spanning regions from Southeast Asia to Africa.
The organization includes Egypt, Turkiye, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia as member states.


Iraq begins repatriating Syrian soldiers amid border security assurances

Updated 19 December 2024
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Iraq begins repatriating Syrian soldiers amid border security assurances

DUBAI: Iraq has begun the process of returning Syrian soldiers to their home country, according to state media reports on Wednesday.

Lt. Gen. Qais Al-Muhammadawi, deputy commander of joint operations, emphasized the robust security measures in place along Iraq’s borders with Syria.

“Our borders are fortified and completely secure,” he said, declaring that no unauthorized crossings would be permitted.

Muhammadawi said that all border crossings with Syria are under tight control, stating: “We will not allow a terrorist to enter our territory.”