Syrians must be allowed to shape their own future

This is a time of immense hope for Syrians. Many are celebrating and will continue to rejoice at the fall of Bashar Assad.

They are entitled to their euphoria, along with a deep sense of relief. Hundreds of thousands of people died either fighting Assad’s rule or fighting to defend it, with people on both sides irreparably scarred by one man’s addiction to power. Millions of good people lost their homes or were forced to live in exile, separated from their families and afraid to return. When the prison gates were opened at Sednaya and thousands of Syrians stepped out into the sunlight — many having long been brutalized and presumed dead — it was symbolic of the country’s new life.

But there are also scores of Syrians, even outside the fading circle of regime loyalists, who are worried about what comes next. On the battlefield, the Syrian civil war was won by an array of militant groups, dominated by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham. This group is a coalition of factions that range from conservative to ultraconservative. HTS was formed a decade ago as Jabhat Al-Nusra, one of the many militias that were popping up across northern Syria. They were startup organizations in the dozens, all competing to prove their credentials. Syrians would joke about the rookie fighters growing out their beards to look more authentic in their brigade formation videos — effectively fundamentalist commercials that were uploaded to YouTube in the hope of attracting funds from conservative patrons abroad.

Among these groups, Jabhat Al-Nusra was always one of the strongest. And yet, if anyone had suggested back then that it would go on to topple the 50-year-old Assad regime, it would have drawn a chuckle. But we are not witnessing the same revolution that started in 2011. The twists, turns and evolutions have matured the players on the ground. HTS softened its tone and disavowed its original ties to Al-Qaeda. But it is still rooted in an authoritarian model. It has transitioned to supporting a de facto regional government in Idlib, with multiple revenue streams and an ability to lead a coalition of militant factions to create a larger fighting force. Already a bastion of social conservatism, Idlib was reshaped according to its vision; children there are now taught a sharply Islamist curriculum in gender-segregated schools.

When thousands of Syrians stepped out of Sednaya and into the sunlight, it was symbolic of the country’s new life.

Lara Setrakian

HTS does not control all of Syria, but it has proven that it can control strategic arteries and swaths of Syrian territory. That, alongside taking credit for Assad’s fall, has given the organization an ability to dictate outcomes and policies in a future government.

There are reasons to be hopeful and see promising ingredients for building a future state — an opportunity only made possible by Assad’s exit. The state bureaucracy, outside of the military and intelligence services, could be strong enough to continue to operate. Talented Syrian technocrats could be persuaded to stay or to return. A generation of Syrians who have lived and studied abroad since the start of the war could bring their skills back home. They simply need to be convinced that the country that is being shaped by HTS, an avowed champion of political Islam, will be one that has space for them to flourish. Its early statements have assured women of their freedoms and encouraged Syrians abroad to return. Now, the Syrian people need to forge a national consensus — an economic-political pact that can unite the country and create momentum.

Syrians have shown over the past 13 years that they have the pragmatism and adaptability to build in a time of chaos. New institutions like the White Helmets and Local Coordination Committees grew from civil society initiatives to deliver humanitarian relief, conduct search and rescue operations and manage trash collections in areas with no formal government. Hybrid charitable foundations backed by the Syrian diaspora have provided medical care, while others like Jusoor, Karam Foundation and Syrian Youth Empowerment built educational programs that have resulted in broad, diverse networks of Syrian professionals. What started out as emergency response mechanisms over more than a decade of war have developed into a blueprint for finding consensus and a common vision for the country.

Having done all this, Syrians are well aware that the near-term risks are acute as the country finds its new form. The US dollar and, more frequently, the Turkish lira have become commonly used currency.

Plans for transitional justice have been years in the making, but now that the moment of transition has come, it will test the limits of accountability for decades of regime crimes, corruption and abuse. There may be demands for a special tribunal, but in the meantime Syrians will have to hold back any impulses toward personal retribution.

Syrians have shown over the past 13 years that they have the pragmatism and adaptability to build in a time of chaos.

Lara Setrakian

Syrians will also have to fix a country plagued by socioeconomic depression, mass displacement and drug abuse entwined with the captagon trade. There will have to be detailed plans for demobilization, giving tens of thousands of Syrian militants an alternative job pathway, if not integrating them into the formal state structure. Above all, in terms of physical danger, they will need to manage the risk of militant infighting. There is no shortage of warlords who have drawn power and wealth from the conditions of chaos. There are militant groups in the south and north of Syria with enough heft to challenge HTS, should their interests collide. If outside powers decide to back competing groups, they will risk fueling an ongoing proxy war at the expense of Syrians who have already suffered enough.

For decades, the Syrian Arab Republic was brutally controlled; now, the challenge is to make sure it does not spiral out of control. There is some hope that HTS will pursue the path of accommodation and balance. Syrians should be given the chance to forge that balance and shape their own future, with all the challenges it holds.

• Lara Setrakian is a journalist and President of the Applied Policy Research Institute (APRI). She is also the Co-Founder of News Deeply and its inaugural platform, Syria Deeply. Previously Lara was based in the Middle East as a reporter for ABC News and Bloomberg Television.

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