ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s KSE-100 index reached a historic high of 116,691, marking an impressive gain of 1,868 points, or 1.63 percent, as investors anticipated the monetary policy review scheduled for today, Monday, in which the central bank cut its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 13 percent.
This is the fifth straight reduction after the central bank had already slashed interest rates by 700 basis points (bps) in four consecutive meetings since June, bringing it to 15 percent.
Pakistan’s latest move makes this year’s cuts the most aggressive among emerging market central banks in the current easing cycle, barring outliers such as Argentina.
The South Asian country is navigating a challenging economic recovery path and has been buttressed by a $7 billion facility from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September.
“The market continued its strong upward momentum, extending its record-breaking rally as investors anticipated the upcoming monetary policy review,” Topline Securities said in its daily market review.
“This was further bolstered by significant buying activity from local institutions, with the index hitting an intraday peak of 116,682.”
Monday’s move follows cuts of 150 bps in June, 100 in July, 200 in September, and a record cut of 250 bps in November, that have taken the rate down from an all-time high of 22 percent, set in June 2023 and left unchanged for a year.
It takes the total cuts to 900 bps since June.
Topline said the rise in stocks was primarily driven by strong performances from Mari Petroleum, Fauji Fertilizer, Pakistan Petroleum, Hub Power and the Oil & Gas Development Company, which collectively contributed 1,749 points.
“Trading activity remained lively, with a total volume of 1,469 million shares and a turnover of Rs 66 billion. Worldcall Telecom Limited led the volume charts, with 403 million shares traded during the session,” Topline added.
During intraday trading, analysts said the anticipation of a sharp interest rate cut together with strong liquidity with mutual funds was driving the market up.
“It is a broad-based increase, with only banks in the red today on fears of higher taxation,” Head of Equities at Intermarket Securities, Raza Jafri, told Arab News.
Pakistani stocks have been performing significantly well this month, closing at record highs multiple times.
“KSE 100 Index gained 4.83 percent on week-on-week basis making it eight consecutive positive closing, as expectation of interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy meeting kept the investor interest robust and continuous buying by mutual funds provided further stimulus to the market,” Topline said in a weekly market review on Friday.
Trade data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics also supports positive investor sentiment as the trade deficit narrowed by 7.39 percent during the first five months (July-November) of the current fiscal year, standing at $8.651 billion, compared to $9.341 billion during the same period last year.
Exports rose by 12.57 percent to hit $13.69 billion, while imports increased by 3.90 percent to $22.342 billion during this period. November’s trade deficit narrowed even further, dropping by 18.60 percent year-on-year to $1.589 billion compared to $1.952 billion in November 2023.
With inputs from Reuters
