Missile defense systems and the Asia-Pacific strategic environment
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The United States’ Missile Defense Agency successfully conducted the first live intercept of a ballistic missile earlier this month on December 9 after struggling to develop and operate a credible missile defense system for decades. The Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) systems’ operationalization will kickstart immense investment in the modernization of offensive ballistic and cruise missiles at the regional and international levels.
The US missile shield is primarily to intercept and destroy China and Russia’s offensive missiles, but it will lead to a spike in the missile race in South Asia. Since the 1980s, India’s Defense Research and Development Organization has been involved in developing missile defense systems. Indian scientists proudly declared their achievements in the field of missile interceptors. Though their loud claims about missile defense capability are debatable, Pakistan has steadily advanced its missile inventories, including the development of Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), a technology that allows a single missile to carry multiple warheads, each capable of striking a different target. Thus, Islamabad seems convinced that New Delhi is actively pursuing a disarming first-strike capability. Therefore, it must modernize its nuclear triad to deter India from military adventurism.
Since the 2019 post-Pulwama military standoff, India and Pakistan have opted for strict visa and security measures, which constrained personnel exchanges between the two countries. The deadlock has virtually ended the dialogue between the Indian and Pakistani strategic communities, entailing both sides to embrace more pessimistic interpretations of each other’s nuclear and missile capabilities, goals, and strategic designs. The systematically evolving Indo-US threshold alliance facilitates India in receiving technological and material assistance from the US to perfect its missile shield to consolidate its position as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean region and contain China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Realistically, the international strategic landscape will become too unstable due to the development and deployment of missile defense systems.
Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
As the US sets the direction of US missile shield enhancement, China also enters a critical phase of its missile development by restructuring the Rocket Force leadership. Chinese President Xi Jinping instructed the strengthening of targeted training with new equipment, skills, and combat methods. So, the Rocket Force likely will prioritize developing a war-fighting doctrine that defines how to employ its expanded capabilities in future wars. This process will modernize Chinese forces’ combat capabilities, resulting in the intensification of its rivals’ insecurity in the Asia-Pacific region.
Currently, Chinese forces are doing mega drills at Taiwan’s doorstep. On December 11, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense tracked 53 military aircraft, 11 navy ships, and eight civilian vessels near the island. These drills increased the insecurity of the Taiwanese and put pressure on the US to provide them with security. The US forces posturing to defend Taiwan further deepens mistrust between Beijing and Washington in the region. Similarly, China and the Philippines’ escalating tension is also a security challenge for the US because the Philippines is a treaty ally of the United States. Thus, the escalation of conflict in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea necessitates using missile interceptors.
Realistically, the international strategic landscape will become too unstable due to the development and deployment of missile defense systems. Movements for nuclear arms control or a world free from nuclear weapons are rapidly losing momentum. Hence, meaningful engagement for trilateral missile control— China, Russia, and the US— and bilateral nuclear confidence-building measures between India and Pakistan to lower the strategic temperature in South Asia will be very remote.
In summary, realizing the US and its partners’ confrontational disposition and upgradation of forces, especially the missile shield in Guam, Beijing is likely to double down on bolstering its nuclear arsenal and the military Rocket Force potential in the Asia-Pacific. Consequently, this will unleash a chain reaction, intensifying the destabilizing arms race between India and Pakistan.
– Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University. E-mail: [email protected], X: @zafar_jaspal
