Hope amid challenges
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The new year begins on a hopeful note in Pakistan with the government and opposition initiating a dialogue for the first time since the disputed general election in February 2024. The outgoing year saw intense confrontation between the two sides and several rounds of street demonstrations mounted by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to force the release of its incarcerated leader Imran Khan and press its other demands. The last round of protests in November, which put the capital under virtual siege, led to many casualties of both law enforcement personnel and opposition activists.
Talks that have begun are in a very preliminary stage and have the endorsement of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and of course Imran Khan. The opening round took place in the premises of parliament and was chaired by the national assembly speaker. It is much too early to say how serious the two sides are and whether the talks will produce any outcome given the deep distrust between them. Initially both sides will test the other for its serious intent.
But for now, the talks seem to have brought down the political temperature and put on hold the opposition’s threat to start a civil disobedience movement. Fierce government-opposition confrontations kept the ruling coalition on edge throughout 2024, while PTI was unable by its protests to mount enough pressure to achieve its goals. In fact, the past several months saw neither the government nor opposition secure a decisive upper hand in their confrontation. This stalemate may have pushed the two sides toward dialogue.
If the two sides can agree on a modus vivendi it would help the country to achieve the kind of domestic peace that has long eluded it.
Maleeha Lodhi
If some degree of political calm can be achieved it will have a salutary effect on efforts to stabilize an economy which is by no means out of the woods. True that an IMF bailout has helped to avert the danger of a debt default and acted as a stabilizing factor. The much-needed $7 billion loan package was secured by the government from the IMF in September after meeting several conditionalities to impose fiscal discipline, limit subsidies and undertake tax and austerity measures. But the real challenge lies ahead – of enforcing tough measures and making the transition from stabilization to economic growth and investment. This requires an end to political turmoil and uncertainty that has already taken a heavy toll on the economy. A de-escalation of political tensions is therefore necessary to create an environment conducive for investment. Stabilization alone is not convincing enough for investors. If the government-opposition talks can also produce agreement on key measures for economic reform – which so far are not on the agenda – it would send a very positive signal to markets and investors.
There are other challenges that have to be met in 2025 which would be helped by an atmosphere of political calm. They include the rising tide of terrorist violence across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. A surge in militant attacks in the outgoing year led to the loss of at least a thousand lives of civilians and law enforcement personnel in these provinces. The Baloch Liberation Army is believed to be as big a security threat as the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Meanwhile violence in KP’s Kurram district claimed around 200 lives in November. Sectarian tensions there remain unresolved despite tenuous government-brokered peace deals. Dealing with these security threats requires active cooperation between the federal government and the opposition-run KP government especially as the province is faced with rising militant activities and sectarian conflict. Pakistan’s federal reality warrants cooperative relations between the center and provinces to address these challenges.
For the government-opposition talks to make progress both sides will have to show flexibility and mutual accommodation. The military establishment, which has been involved in the political game, also needs to encourage the dialogue. It can play a positive role by reverting to its previous position of neutral arbiter rather than persist in its current stance, which is widely seen as partisan. The government would have to end its repressive measures, withdraw frivolous cases against opposition leaders, release those incarcerated for bailable ‘offenses’ as well as free hundreds of PTI activists still in custody. For its part, PTI would have to suspend its agitational politics and refrain from disruptive conduct in and outside Parliament. It should commit to fighting its battles in Parliament rather than on the streets. Its chief minister in KP should focus on governing his province instead of leading protest rallies.
Talks will likely continue in fits and starts because of the trust deficit and the fact that PTI interlocuters will continuously require directions from their leader who languishes in jail. Political reconciliation, which the country desperately needs, may be a bridge too far. But if the two sides can agree on a modus vivendi it would help the country to achieve the kind of domestic peace that has long eluded it.
- Maleeha Lodhi is a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UK & UN. She posts on X with @LodhiMaleeha
