Recycling chaos: Will 2025 be any different for Pakistan?

The year 2024 will be remembered as a year of reactionary policies — of missiles flying in from Iran being met with a counter-strike in Sistan-Balochistan and cross-border militancy being responded to with retaliatory airstrikes in Afghan territory. It will also be remembered as the year domestic militancy surged unchecked, with over 1,000 reported attacks leaving at least 951 dead and countless injured. From the Quetta Railway Station bombing to the Dukki Mine tragedy, the ongoing Kurram killings and the Peshawar Mosque bombing, we saw protectors turn into prey as hostile elements exploited the weaknesses of a system that is failing to protect itself. The question now is: will 2025 bring more of the same — rhetoric, retaliation, and ruin — or will our state retreat, regroup and adopt strategic clarity?

The outgoing year saw Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan endure relentless violence, with militant groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) operating with near impunity. An increase in urban crime and fresh disturbances in the riverine belt added to the pandemonium, creating an impression that Pakistan was facing a perfect storm. Though our security forces fought back valiantly, their sacrifices now demand urgent introspection. The authorities must be asked why militants seem to be growing bolder with each passing day. 

Is it a failure of our capacity to deal with emergent threats, a breakdown in intelligence, or simply an outcome of systemic negligence? There is also the more troubling question: does this disorder serve some hidden agenda which requires the nation to be trapped in an endless cycle of reactionary governance? Without genuine introspection and action, Pakistan risks perpetuating its failures and ensuring that history repeats itself in the coming year.

The lessons offered by 2024 — and the years preceding it — demand a review, some accountability, and a clear vision for progress.

Dr Syed Kaleem Imam

Ordinary Pakistanis are not inherently extremist. However, decades of flawed policies have normalized societal tolerance for violence, while slogans like “We’re killing terrorists”, “It’s all foreign-sponsored”, “Taliban’s return to the KP was a mistake”, and “Balochistan’s issues are externally fueled” have distracted public attention from the actual problems. The state’s knee-jerk responses — its tendency to treat every issue like a nail, and hammer away — have failed to yield any lasting solutions. 

Meanwhile, governance has collapsed under the weight of bad policies, elite capture, corruption, and media sensationalism; faith in the state lies in tatters, eroded by hypocrisy and inertia; the Internet is throttled, public rallies are considered ‘unpatriotic’, and speaking one’s heart out is treason. Meanwhile, anti-state narratives thrive, feeding on the state’s inability to inspire faith. Even seemingly progressive moves, like finalizing the National Internal Security Policy (NISP) 2024 and prevention of violent extremism policy, have failed to bridge the gap between the state and its people. 

As we enter 2025, Pakistan must break free from its dependency on reactionary governance. Public trust, shattered by years of hypocrisy and incompetence, must be rebuilt with carefully considered and sustainable measures. The lessons offered by 2024 — and the years preceding it — demand a review, some accountability, and a clear vision for progress. Unless Pakistan directly confronts its challenges, it risks repeating the same cycle of chaos.

The recommendations for 2025 are clear: firstly, the responsibility for governance must be returned to its rightful stewards — civilian leaders and law enforcement agencies. Supporting institutions, including the military and judiciary, must focus on aiding rather than dictating policy. Fault must be non-negotiable, with clear mechanisms to hold officials responsible for missteps, as was demanded after the APS massacre. 

Secondly, it must be understood that public trust will only be restored through honesty and accountability. Institutions must admit their failures, ensure justice for victims, and engage the communities affected by their policies in their decision-making. After-action reviews should become standard practice so that mistakes become lessons that inform future strategies. Open communication and inclusive governance are essential to closing the gap between the state and its citizens. 

Thirdly, the authorities must realize they cannot continue to rule through ad-hoc measures. Important policies with a wide impact must be revised and rooted in the rule of law and long-term planning. Merit and professionalism, not political loyalty, should guide appointments and decisions, and policymaking at the highest levels should be about addressing systemic challenges rather than firefighting crises as they happen.

Fourthly, Pakistan’s education system — which includes public schools, private institutions, and madrassas — needs to be comprehensively reformed. There is a need to identify ideological biases which have fostered extremism and violence and consciously eliminate them. The state must oversee a curriculum that promotes critical thinking, tolerance and inclusivity and fosters civic responsibility if societal cohesion is to be rebuilt. 

Fifth, diplomacy must be re-prioritized if we wish to achieve regional stability. We must strengthen collaboration with neighboring countries, especially on combating cross-border terrorism and improving intelligence sharing. Pakistan must also adopt global best practices in counterterrorism to better leverage the expertise and resources available at the international level. 

Sixth, we must realize that economic despair fuels extremism. The focus needs to remain on generating employment, empowering local industries, and promoting equitable development in the most affected and underrepresented regions, especially Balochistan and the merged districts of KP. Radicalization cannot be countered without improved opportunities for economic empowerment. 

Lastly, there needs to be some appreciation of the fact that decades of instability have taken a massive psychological toll. The state must prioritize access to mental health services, particularly for youth in conflict-affected areas. 

The year 2025 should be the year Pakistan breaks the cycle of reactionary governance. However, unless there is reflection and introspection which leads to systemic change, history is bound to repeat itself. Will it be successful in this endeavor? Time will tell.

– The writer is former federal secretary/IGP- PhD in Politics and IR-teaching Law and Philosophy. X: @Kaleemimam. Email:[email protected]: fb@syedkaleemimam