Gaza war death toll could be 40 percent higher, says study

An official Palestinian tally of direct deaths in the Israel-Hamas war likely undercounted the number of casualties by around 40% in the first nine months of the war as the Gaza Strip's healthcare infrastructure unravelled, according to a study published on Thursday. (Getty Images/File)
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Updated 10 January 2025
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Gaza war death toll could be 40 percent higher, says study

  • Researchers sought to assess the death toll from Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024
  • They estimated 64,260 deaths due to traumatic injury during this period, about 41 percent higher than the official Palestinian Health Ministry count

LONDON: An official Palestinian tally of direct deaths in the Israel-Hamas war likely undercounted the number of casualties by around 40 percent in the first nine months of the war as the Gaza Strip’s health care infrastructure unraveled, according to a study published on Thursday.
The peer-reviewed statistical analysis published in The Lancet journal was conducted by academics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University and other institutions.
Using a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, the researchers sought to assess the death toll from Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024.
They estimated 64,260 deaths due to traumatic injury during this period, about 41 percent higher than the official Palestinian Health Ministry count. The study said 59.1 percent were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not provide an estimate of Palestinian combatants among the dead.
More than 46,000 people have been killed in the Gaza war, according to Palestinian health officials, from a pre-war population of around 2.1 million.
A senior Israeli official, commenting on the study, said Israel’s armed forces went to great lengths to avoid civilian casualties.
“No other army in the world has ever taken such wide-ranging measures,” the official said.
“These include providing advance warning to civilians to evacuate, safe zones and taking any and all measures to prevent harm to civilians. The figures provided in this report do not reflect the situation on the ground.”
The war began on Oct. 7 after Hamas gunmen stormed across the border with Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
The Lancet study said the Palestinian health ministry’s capacity for maintaining electronic death records had previously proven reliable, but deteriorated under Israel’s military campaign, which has included raids on hospitals and other health care facilities and disruptions to digital communications.
Israel accuses Hamas of using hospitals as cover for its operations, which the militant group denies.

STUDY METHOD EMPLOYED IN OTHER CONFLICTS
Anecdotal reports suggested that a significant number of dead remained buried in the rubble of destroyed buildings and were therefore not included in some tallies.
To better account for such gaps, the Lancet study employed a method used to evaluate deaths in other conflict zones, including Kosovo and Sudan.
Using data from at least two independent sources, researchers look for individuals who appear on multiple lists of those killed. Less overlap between lists suggests more deaths have gone unrecorded, information that can be used to estimate the full number of deaths.
For the Gaza study, researchers compared the official Palestinian Health Ministry death count, which in the first months of war was based entirely on bodies that arrived in hospitals but later came to include other methods; an online survey distributed by the health ministry to Palestinians inside and outside the Gaza Strip, who were asked to provide data on Palestinian ID numbers, names, age at death, sex, location of death, and reporting source; and obituaries posted on social media.
“Our research reveals a stark reality: the true scale of traumatic injury deaths in Gaza is higher than reported,” lead author Zeina Jamaluddine told Reuters.
Dr. Paul Spiegel, director of the Center for Humanitarian Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, told Reuters that the statistical methods deployed in the study provide a more complete estimate of the death toll in the war.
The study focused solely on deaths caused by traumatic injuries though, he said.
Deaths caused from indirect effects of conflict, such as disrupted health services and poor water and sanitation, often cause high excess deaths, said Spiegel, who co-authored a study last year that projected thousands of deaths due to the public health crisis spawned by the war.
The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) estimates that, on top of the official death toll, around another 11,000 Palestinians are missing and presumed dead.
In total, PCBS said, citing Palestinian Health Ministry numbers, the population of Gaza has fallen 6 percent since the start of the war, as about 100,000 Palestinians have also left the enclave.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 12,025

Updated 8 min 20 sec ago
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 12,025

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Thursday, gaining 54.86 points, or 0.46 percent, to close at 12,025.05.  

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR6.02 billion ($1.60 billion), as 188 stocks advanced, while 52 retreated.   

The MSCI Tadawul Index increased by 6.18 points, or 0.41 percent, to close at 1,524.34.

The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, rose, gaining 98.09 points, or 0.32 percent, to close at 31,086.53. This comes as 59 stocks advanced while 26 retreated.

The best-performing stock was Zamil Industrial Investment Co., with its share price surging by 9.92 percent to SR32.70. 

The worst performer of the day was SAL Saudi Logistics Services Co., whose share price fell by 3.88 percent to SR198.

On the announcements front, MBC Group Co. announced its financial results for 2024, with net profits reaching SR426.1 million, up from SR17.5 million the previous year.

The group attributed the rise to the full-year comparison versus a partial-year base in 2023 when the results only reflected the period from July to December following the subsidiaries’ acquisition. The improved performance was supported by higher revenues from SHAHID, MBC’s video-on-demand platform, as well as other commercial activity segments, particularly from broadcasting and technical services contracts.  

The firm’s shares traded 0.86 percent lower on the main market to close at SR45.90. 

Emaar, The Economic City, announced its annual financial results for 2024. The company’s net loss in 2024 reached SR1.1 billion, up from SR253 million in the previous year, marking a 348.6 percent change.

It attributed the net loss of SR882 million to a shift from a gross profit of SR432 million last year to a gross loss of SR119 million. This was driven by lower sales of residential properties and industrial lands, and the absence of a one-off revenue boost of SR263 million recorded in 2023. 

It added in a statement on Tadawul that operating expenses rose by SR41 million on higher employee costs and marketing spending, while financial charges increased by SR136 million due to additional borrowing and higher Saudi Arabian Interbank Offered rates. 

Other operating income also declined by SR102 million, weighed down by lower property disposals and the absence of non-recurring gains.

However, the higher loss was partially offset by an SR70 million reversal of expected credit loss provisions following improved collections.

The firm’s shares traded 1.51 percent lower on the main market to close at SR14.36.

Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair Co. also announced its annual financial results for last year. The company’s net loss decreased to SR197.5 million from SR1.1 billion in the previous year.

In a statement, the company said that the increase was driven by an accounting adjustment of SR141 million year-end adjustment as per international financial reporting standards; goodwill and other assets were assessed independently and impaired. 

On another note, the Capital Market Authority has approved Specialized Medical Co.’s application to register and offer 75 million shares, representing 30 percent of its share capital, for public subscription.  

The company’s prospectus, which will be released ahead of the subscription period, will provide investors with key information on its financials, activities, management, and associated risks.  

The CMA emphasized in a statement that its approval does not constitute a recommendation to invest but confirms that the legal requirements have been met. The approval is valid for six months from the resolution date.

On the weekend’s trading session, Specialized Medical Co.’s shares traded 1.23 percent higher on the parallel market to close at SR16.46.


Sudan’s army shells Omdurman in push to oust RSF from capital region

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Sudan’s army shells Omdurman in push to oust RSF from capital region

  • The war has ruined much of Khartoum, uprooted more than 12 million Sudanese from their homes, and left about half of the 50 million population suffering acute hunger

DUBAI: The Sudanese army shelled parts of Khartoum’s twin city of Omdurman from early morning on Thursday, residents said, after declaring victory over their Rapid Support Forces rivals in a two-year battle for the capital.
The army ousted the RSF from its last footholds in Khartoum on Wednesday but the paramilitary RSF holds some areas in Omdurman, directly across the Nile River, and has consolidated in west Sudan, splitting the nation into rival zones.
Khartoum residents expressed delight fighting was over for the first time since it erupted in April 2023.
“During the last two years the RSF made our life hell killing and stealing. They didn’t respect anybody including women and old men,” teacher Ahmed Hassan, 49, said by phone.
The war has ruined much of Khartoum, uprooted more than 12 million Sudanese from their homes, and left about half of the 50 million population suffering acute hunger in what the UN calls the world’s worst humanitarian disaster.
Overall deaths are hard to estimate but a study published last year said the toll may have reached 61,000 in Khartoum state alone in the first 14 months of the conflict.
The conflict has added to instability around northeast Africa, with Sudan’s neighbors Libya, Chad, Central African Republic and South Sudan each weathering internal bouts of conflict over recent years.
In a video posted on Thursday from the recaptured presidential palace, army chief Abdul Fattah Al-Burhan declared: “Khartoum is free.”
The RSF said in a statement that it had never lost a battle, but that its forces had “strategically repositioned and expanded across the battlefronts to secure their military objectives,” without naming Khartoum or other locations.
While the seizure of Khartoum marks a significant turning point, the war looks far from over.
Residents in the western state of Darfur said the RSF was shelling army positions in Al-Fashir, the main city there, on Thursday.

RETREATING RSF
RSF fighters pulling out of Khartoum on Wednesday via a Nile dam 40 km south redeployed, some heading into Omdurman to help stave off army attacks and others heading west toward Darfur, witnesses said.
The army controls most of Omdurman, home to two big military bases, and looks focused on driving out the last RSF troops to secure control over Khartoum’s entire urban area. Thursday’s shelling was directed at southern Omdurman.
The RSF still holds a last patch of territory around the dam at Jebel Aulia south of Khartoum, two residents of the area said, to secure a line of retreat for stragglers.
Residents of a village in North Kordofan state said they had seen an RSF military convoy with dozens of vehicles passing through on its way west.
The army and RSF had been in a fragile partnership, jointly staging a coup in 2021 that derailed the transition from the Islamist rule of Omar Al-Bashir, a longtime autocrat ousted in 2019.
The RSF, under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, developed from Darfur’s janjaweed militias and Bashir developed the group as a counterweight to the army, led by career officer Burhan.
Under an internationally backed transition plan the RSF was meant to integrate into the army, but there were disputes over how and when that should happen and fighting broke out.
In Khartoum the RSF quickly spread through residential districts, taking most of the city and besieging the better-equipped army in big military bases that had to be resupplied by air.
The army’s capture of Khartoum could open the way for it to announce the formation of a government. The RSF has said it would support the formation of a rival civilian administration.


Saudi Supreme Court urges sighting Shawwal crescent on Saturday evening

Supreme Court is calling on Muslims throughout Saudi Arabia to look out for the crescent moon of Shawwal on Saturday evening.
Updated 41 min 34 sec ago
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Saudi Supreme Court urges sighting Shawwal crescent on Saturday evening

  • Supreme Court called on anyone who sights the crescent moon the naked eye or through binoculars to report to the nearest court and register their testimony

RIYADH: The Supreme Court is calling on Muslims throughout Saudi Arabia to look out for the crescent moon of Shawwal on Saturday evening, Ramadan 29, 1446, which corresponds to March 29, 2025.

In an announcement on Thursday, the Supreme Court called on anyone who sights the crescent moon the naked eye or through binoculars to report to the nearest court and register their testimony.

The announcement read: “The Supreme Court calls on all Muslims throughout the Kingdom to sight the Shawwal crescent moon on Saturday evening. The Supreme Court requests that anyone who sights it with the naked eye or through binoculars report to the nearest court and register their testimony, or contact the nearest center for assistance in reaching the nearest court. The Supreme Court hopes that those who are able to see it will pay attention to this matter and join the committees formed in the all regions for this purpose, seeking reward and recompense for their participation, as it promotes cooperation in righteousness and piety and benefits all Muslims.”

The sighting of the Shawwal crescent moon marks the end of the fasting month of Ramadan that this year began on March 1.


Punjab says received 38 percent less rainfall in last four months, warns of drought 

Updated 56 min 28 sec ago
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Punjab says received 38 percent less rainfall in last four months, warns of drought 

  • Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province, plays leading role in country’s agricultural production
  • Pakistan’s Met Department this week warned of possible drought in Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s eastern and most populated Punjab province on Thursday warned that it may face a drought in the near future as it has received 38 percent less rainfall in the last four months compared to the usual amount, a statement from the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said. 

Earlier this week, Pakistan’s Meteorological Department (PMD) warned that the existing drought situation in Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan provinces may “exacerbate and intensify” in the coming months due to below-normal rainfall, rising temperatures and acute shortage of stored water in the country’s dams.

The situation is particularly alarming for Punjab, which plays a leading role in Pakistan’s agricultural production. The province contributes about 68 percent to the annual food grain production in Pakistan and has 51 million acres of cultivated land, as per official figures. 

“In the last four months, Punjab has received 38 percent less rainfall which is threatening a possible drought,” the PDMA said in a statement. 

A meeting was held under the chairmanship of DG PDMA Punjab Irfan Ali Kathia to deal with the possible drought in Cholistan in southern Punjab. 

“Additional funds will be provided to the relevant districts to deal with the possible drought,” the PDMA said. 

Participants of the meeting were informed in the briefing that due to a lack of rain last winter, the country’s reservoirs are facing a water shortage. 

“Water supply is being ensured in all areas. Water is being provided to remote areas through pipelines and water bowsers,” it said. 

The PDMA urged all relevant departments to be on alert, with Kathia instructing all departments to make provision of basic medicines to deal with possible drought. 

“Possible steps are being taken to deal with heat wave and possible drought,” the statement said.

Pakistan has the fourth-highest rate of water consumption in the world. The country’s agriculture sector uses the most amount of freshwater than any other sector. Rainfall has steadily declined over the past few decades and experts have been warning for years the country will approach “absolute scarcity” of water by 2025.

The results of the latest census in 2023 counted 241.49 million people across Pakistan with a growth rate of 2.55 percent. Linked to that, per capita water availability has been on a downward trend for decades.


Israel arms sales protest interrupts UK trade minister event

Updated 59 min 31 sec ago
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Israel arms sales protest interrupts UK trade minister event

  • One protester accused the government of being complicit in genocide
  • Responding to the protest, Reynolds said Britain had suspended arms exports to Israel

LONDON: British business and trade minister Jonathan Reynolds was on Thursday interrupted by two protesters opposing arms sales to Israel who stormed the stage as he was about to speak at a think-tank event on trade.
“They have not stopped the trade in F-35s,” one individual shouted, referring to F-35 fighter jets. One protester accused the government of being complicit in genocide.
Responding to the protest, Reynolds said Britain had suspended arms exports to Israel.
“We haven’t suspended F-35s because they’re integral to our national security and particularly the defense of Ukraine,” he said.