Pakistan and the Gulf: Regaining strategic relevance in 2025

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have remained key political, strategic, economic and energy partners of Pakistan. Over the years, the centrality of the GCC in the foreign policy spectrum of Pakistan has become even more pronounced. With the start of a new year, Pakistan’s decision makers should focus on revamping the existing modalities of engagement vis-à-vis this group of nations and the need to develop a comprehensive policy framework that can contribute toward the development of a mutually beneficial strategic partnership between the two sides.

Pakistan’s relationship with the GCC has remained amicable since the independence of the country. With the creation of new states of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, the relationship entered a new phase. The Pakistani state and Pakistani citizens both remained an inherent feature of the Gulf States as they embarked upon their nation building projects. In particular, Pakistan emerged as a key partner for the GCC in the security domain, not only owing to their shared alignment with the American block but also owing to the strong inter-personal ties between decision makers on both sides. Furthermore, Pakistan always respected the sovereignty of the GCC states and never interfered with their domestic politics.

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and the revolution in Iran in the same year changed the regional political calculus, creating new political and security challenges both for Pakistan as well as the Gulf. This further helped the two sides strengthen their ties and in the case of Saudi Arabia, develop a strategic partnership. Furthermore, the petrochemical fueled economic growth of the GCC also opened doors of employment for Pakistani migrant workers. This development became a blessing for the country’s economy as these expats started sending home foreign remittances which played a key role in sustaining the economy of marginalized areas of the country particularly South Punjab. From 1990s onwards skilled migrants also entered the fray and have made important contributions to the Gulf economies.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the end of the Iran-Iraq war and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the regional geopolitical order changed completely. This also impacted Pakistan’s relationship with the Gulf States, and it entered a new phase where Pakistan’s strategic relevance vis-à-vis the Gulf started to decline. However, thanks to the strong inter-personal bonds between civil and military decision makers on both sides, Pakistan maintained a strong partnership with its Arab Gulf partners.

In the past decade, Pakistani decision makers have missed critical opportunities to regenerate new connections with the Gulf, particularly in the security domain.

Umer Karim

The upheavals of 9/11, the American invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the rise of Iran and the emergence of the Arab Spring all created new security challenges for the GCC. Meanwhile Pakistan’s policy makers, still steeped heavily in the mindset of 1970s and 1980s, failed to acknowledge the changes in the regional security environment and to adapt their policy approach toward the region.

The ascension of a new generation of leaders in the Gulf saw new policies to revise the existing political, economic and security policies. The Gulf States have been remodelling their statecraft and enhancing their engagement with the rising great powers across the globe. Meanwhile, Pakistan marred by endemic economic crises has been compelled again and again to seek financial assistance from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar. This has naturally tilted the balance within the bilateral relationship.

As Pakistan’s economic dependence on the Arab Gulf has increased manifold, it has hurt the country’s strategic relevance for these states. In the past decade, Pakistani decision makers have missed critical opportunities to regenerate new connections with the Gulf, particularly in the security domain.

The current policy to facilitate investments from the Gulf and the creation of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) in this regard are measures in the right direction. But for Pakistan to truly rehabilitate its strategic connection, it must understand that the burdens of the security realm must be shared. Islamabad’s decision makers need to revise their understanding of the challenges and threats faced by the Gulf and then contribute further to the security architecture of the region.

– Umar Karim is a doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham. His research focuses on the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s strategic outlook, the Saudi-Iran tussle, conflict in Syria, and the geopolitics of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. X:@UmarKarim89