Lebanon stands to benefit as Hezbollah, Syria and Iran weaken

It is no secret that Lebanon’s fate and stability have always been at the mercy of the delicate equilibrium of communal internal forces, the regional Arab balance of power, Israel, and the Palestinian conflict — as well as Iran and its revolutionary agenda in recent decades.

Rarely have those forces aligned in a way that set the Lebanese state on track for peace, stability, rebuilding and reforming in the interest of all those influential forces at the same time.

Middle East theory books have often argued that the game of musical chairs applies most to this region, where there is always one extra player left without a chair, often scuppering the party for the rest. This analogy applies most to Lebanon and its many competing, even warring, communities, as events have often left one of them without a chair at the table.

This week’s election of Joseph Aoun, the fifth army commander to become president in Lebanon’s history, begs the question of whether he will be able to usher in an era that could pull the country from the brink, or if he will merely serve as a caretaker president, managing the demands of its corrupt political elites, their expectations, and those of their communities.

Will he be able to be a Fouad Chehab, the late president of Lebanon from 1958 to 1964, who rose to power after modern Lebanon’s first mini civil war, fought over the issue of aligning Lebanon with Nasserite Arabism’s anti-Zionist, pro-Palestinian rhetoric, or with the Western-led Baghdad Pact championed by the US in the interests of peace and prosperity?

This surely remains to be seen.

The weakening of Hezbollah and its master, Iran, in last year’s war with Israel, coupled with the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, have no doubt been key factors in breaking Lebanon’s long-deadlocked parliament to reach a consensus and elect a new president who has the confidence of the international community.

The new president’s inbox and the to-do list of his soon-to-be-appointed government are colossal, aiming to meet the lowest threshold of Lebanese expectations after years in which state institutions have been in the wilderness of the imposed trilogy of “people, army and the resistance.”

Making a break with such a formula that legitimized the use of force by an extrastate actor is key to understanding how and where Lebanon’s reboot under Aoun could go.

Hezbollah’s acceptance of Aoun’s election underlines that it no longer dictates the political agenda in light of the regional geopolitical shifts since Hamas’s misjudged adventure on Oct. 7, 2023 and its aftermath, which led to the weakening of Iran’s influence in the region.

The political defeat of Hezbollah follows its devastating military setback over the past 14 months. And under the ceasefire terms with Israel, the Lebanese army continues to deploy in the south as Israeli troops are set to withdraw. The test is whether Hezbollah will agree to dismantle its remaining military infrastructure south of the Litani River and pull its remaining forces 30 km from the border.

It will be up to Aoun, with his military background, to persuade Hezbollah to abandon its weapons — a daunting task, to say the least. But that is the test the new president cannot fail.

Mohamed Chebaro

Between now and the nomination and swearing-in of a new government, political fighting is likely to continue between two trends — those who want to reconstitute the Lebanese political landscape afresh, and those who want to refloat and reposition the hegemon of a corrupt, discredited political elite that, under Syrian tutelage and direct Iranian guidance, devastated the Lebanese state and its institutions over four decades.

The latter successfully emptied Lebanon’s coffers, collapsed its banking system, took its people to war in Syria, fought Israel repeatedly on behalf of Iran, impoverished its people and pushed many into exile. Additionally, they opened the country to mafia-like money-laundering cartels, drug producers and smugglers, positioning Lebanon as a pariah state.

As a result, Western and Arab countries refrained from providing a lifeline to the country, apart from the minimum necessary to keep its quasi-security apparatus and basic infrastructure afloat, serving the people against all odds.

The new president committed in his speech on Friday to a “policy of neutrality” and to improving Lebanon’s relations with Arab countries that have ostracized it for years due to Hezbollah’s axis of resistance agenda.

The test, no doubt, will be his ability to deliver on his pledge that the state will have a monopoly on bearing arms, signaling a difficult path ahead to disarm Hezbollah, which has kept its weapons since the civil war ended in 1990 to fight Israel, even after Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000.

Early indicators as to the new Lebanese president and the prospects for Lebanon will surely be seen in the composition of the new government — whether it will be a uniform executive body or if pressures will be exerted to compose it in a way that reflects the communal, sectarian and political quotas and divides imposed by the traditional political elite dominated by the pro-Hezbollah forces.

The early key appointments to be initiated by the new government ahead of the forthcoming general parliamentary elections in the spring are likely to reflect whether Lebanon will be on a healing path, or if the old symptoms persist. Appointments of the heads of the security and administrative apparatus will be key indicators and a telling sign of the parliamentary elections.

Hezbollah, it is said, allowed the election of the new president Aoun to go ahead only after receiving assurances about the name of the next head of the armed forces and the implementation of the ceasefire agreement’s tenets or limits with Israel, which could raise alarm bells.

The role played by the US, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which lobbied for the election of Aoun, should be applauded. However, those nations ought to prepare for the long road ahead, paved with thorns, if Lebanon is to be stable and prosperous. Threats from Iran, which is unlikely to abandon its anti-Israel and pro-resistance rhetoric and actions, could scupper all efforts for a neutral but prosperous Lebanon.

It will be up to Aoun, with his military background, to persuade Hezbollah to abandon its weapons — a daunting task, to say the least. But that is the test the new president cannot fail. Otherwise, Lebanon’s historic opportunity to reinstate peace, security and stability, and rebuild its economy and banking system to attract tourism and investment, especially in its newly found energy reserves in the sea, could be lost once again.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British- Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.