Could we see a Palestinian state during Mahmoud Abbas’s 20th year in office thanks to the global coalition?

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas speaks during the United Nations General Assembly at the UN headquarters on September 26, 2024 in New York City. (AFP)
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Updated 13 January 2025
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Could we see a Palestinian state during Mahmoud Abbas’s 20th year in office thanks to the global coalition?

  • When Abbas assumed the Palestinian Authority presidency on Jan. 15, 2005, he inherited a fractured political landscape
  • His legacy will be defined by whether he can translate Saudi-led momentum behind Palestinian statehood into tangible results

LONDON: As Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas marks 20 years in office, his leadership remains a complex chapter in the Palestinian national story, characterized by division, disillusionment, but also dogged determination.

Having succeeded Yasser Arafat in 2005, Abbas’ lengthy tenure has been shaped by challenges that have profoundly impacted the Palestinian people, the pursuit of statehood, and the prospects for peace with Israel.

“Ever since taking office, President Abbas has focused all his attention on the realization of an independent Palestinian state using diplomatic and political means,” Daoud Kuttab, an award-winning Palestinian journalist and author, told Arab News.




Posters of presidential candidate Mahmoud Abbas and the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat are seen at the Al-Amaari refugee camp in the West Bank city of Ramallah on January 2005 during the election for Arafat's successor. (AFP)

Abbas’s term was originally meant to last four years, meaning elections should have been held in 2009. However, no presidential elections have taken place since, primarily due to political rivalries between the main parties.

This 20-year milestone invites a reflection on Abbas’ legacy, the ongoing divisions within Palestinian politics, and whether his 20th year in power since succeeding Arafat might see tangible progress toward an independent Palestinian state.

When Abbas assumed the presidency on Jan. 15, 2005, he inherited a fractured political landscape. Arafat’s death in November 2004 left a void in Palestinian leadership, particularly given his unique ability to unite diverse factions under the umbrella of the Palestine Liberation Organization.




Palestinians crowd around the coffin of Fatah Chairman Yasser Arafat after it arrived from Cairo in the West Bank city of Ramallaha on November 12, 2004, for a burial ceremony. (AFP)

Abbas, known for his more pragmatic and diplomatic approach, was seen as a leader who could gain international credibility and potentially re-ignite peace talks with Israel. However, Arafat’s departure also brought long-simmering divisions among Palestinians to the fore.

“Abbas followed a revolutionary leader in Yasser Arafat and had to confront an Islamic movement that is focused on armed resistance,” said Kuttab, referring to the Palestinian militant group Hamas that controls Gaza.

“He attacked Hamas for their rocket attacks on Israel and has been silently disapproving of the Oct. 7, 2023, cross-border Hamas act that has caused huge loss of life as a result of the brutal Israeli revenge response.”




This April 7, 2024, photo shows near Israelis visiting a memorial at Kibbutz Reim in southern Israel, at the site of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on the Supernova music festival, which triggered Israel's genocidal Gaza invasion. (AFP)

The Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel left 1,200 people dead, the majority of them civilians, saw some 250 taken hostage, including many foreign nationals, and triggered Israel’s devastating retaliatory war in Gaza.

Fifteen months on, the war has cost the lives of more than 45,000 Palestinians, according to health officials in Gaza, although a new study published by the Lancet medical journal has placed the death toll at 64,260 as of last June.

The rivalry between Abbas’ Fatah and Hamas escalated into a full-blown schism in 2007. Following a short conflict, Hamas seized control of Gaza, leaving Abbas’ Fatah-dominated PA governing only parts of the West Bank.

This division has not only weakened the Palestinian cause but has also complicated efforts to present a unified front in negotiations with Israel.




A Palestinian mourns his daughter and two other relatives who were killed in an Israeli airstrike on Jan. 11, 2025, in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip. Fifteen months on, the Gaza war has cost the lives of more than 46,500 Palestinians and at least 109,660 wounded. (AFP)

Abbas began his presidency with optimism. His platform emphasized nonviolent resistance, institution-building, and a commitment to achieving a two-state solution through negotiations.

His efforts gained initial support from the international community, particularly the US and the EU. The 2005 Israeli withdrawal from Gaza was seen as a potential breakthrough, despite being unilateral and limited.

However, hopes for progress soon faded. The victory of Hamas in the 2006 legislative elections, coupled with the failure to reach a consensus on governance, exacerbated divisions.

Meanwhile, peace talks with Israel stalled repeatedly over issues such as settlement expansion, security arrangements, and the status of Jerusalem.




Palestinians rally in the West Bank city of Ramallah on June 13, 2007, calling for a stop to fighting between the Fatah and the Hamas movements in the Gaza Strip. Fatah and Hamas remain rivals to this day. (AFP)

The situation worsened after the 2008-09 Gaza war, further entrenching the divide between Hamas and Fatah. For many Palestinians, Abbas’ commitment to negotiations began to appear futile, especially as Israel’s settlement activity in the West Bank continued unabated.

Critics accused Abbas of presiding over a corrupt and ineffective administration, eroding public trust in the PA.

The split between the West Bank and Gaza remains one of the defining challenges of Abbas’ presidency. Efforts at reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas have repeatedly faltered, with each side blaming the other for the impasse.




Caption

The Oct. 7 attack and the war in Gaza have done little to heal the rift. On Saturday, Fatah issued a rare statement criticizing Hamas for sacrificing Palestinian interests for Iran and causing destruction in Gaza.

The statement supports Fatah’s recent security crackdown in the Jenin refugee camp targeting Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other armed groups, accusing Tehran of funding these factions.

Fatah also condemned the Oct. 7 attack, rejecting Hamas’ strategy of armed conflict, and accused it of seeking to incite chaos in the West Bank




Protesters clash with members of the Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces, in Jenin in the Israel-occupied West Bank, on December 16, 2024. (AFP)

Talks in December between Fatah and Hamas about a nonpartisan Gaza administration have seen no clear progress. Meanwhile, the future governance of Gaza remains uncertain as Israeli leaders debate involving the PA following the defeat of Hamas.

Despite his long absence from the Palestinian Territories in the UAE, Mohammed Dahlan, a former Gaza security chief who was blamed by some within Fatah for the loss of Gaza, has since been tipped as a potential leader of the enclave — if Hamas were removed from power.

The Fatah Central Committee voted to expel Dahlan from the party in June 2011 after Abbas accused him of corruption and of plotting against him. Dahlan denied the allegations and accused Abbas of targeting him for his criticism of Abbas’ handling of the peace process.




In this photo taken on December 31, 2016, supporters of Fatah's former security chief Mohammed Dahlan, an exiled rival to Mahmoud Abbas, clash with supporters of Abbas during a rally in Gaza City. (AFP file)

In spite of this history of division among the Palestinians, Abbas’ administration has achieved some notable successes on the international stage, including securing Palestine’s recognition as a non-member observer state at the UN in 2012.

This diplomatic victory underscored Abbas’ commitment to pursuing Palestinian statehood through nonviolent means and international legitimacy.

However, Abbas’ prolonged tenure has not been without controversy. Now aged 89, he has faced growing criticism for failing to hold elections since 2006, effectively extending his rule far beyond his original mandate.




Palestinian Fatah movement supporters carry portraits of PA President Mahmud Abbas (R) and his late predecessor Yasser Arafat (L) during a march to mark the 16th anniversary of Arafat's death in the village of Dura, near the West Bank city of Hebron on November 11, 2020. (AFP file)

Many Palestinians view the PA as increasingly authoritarian, accusing it of suppressing dissent and prioritizing security coordination with Israel over the needs of its people. The PA’s reliance on international aid has also raised questions about its sustainability.

Economic dependency on donor funding has left the PA vulnerable to political pressure, particularly from the US and Israel. This dependency has fueled perceptions that the PA is complicit in managing the occupation rather than resisting it.

Meanwhile, Abbas has faced internal challenges from younger Fatah leaders and other political factions who view his leadership as out of touch. Calls for generational change have grown louder, with many Palestinians demanding a more inclusive and dynamic approach.

Despite these challenges, Abbas’ 20th year in office arrives at a moment of renewed international focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.




Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (L) meeting with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh on August 27, 2024. (PPO/AFP) 

Saudi Arabia’s emergence as a regional power broker has brought fresh hope for advancing the two-state solution. Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Kingdom has taken a proactive role in mediating conflicts and fostering dialogue, including between Israel and the Arab world.

In October 2024, Saudi Arabia announced the formation of the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution. The coalition includes key players such as the US, the EU, and Arab states, with a mandate to address core issues including borders, settlements, refugees, and the status of Jerusalem.

Riyadh’s initiative has been bolstered by an ongoing Arab dialogue with Israel, which includes conditions tied to advancing Palestinian statehood in line with the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative.




Since the global alliance for the two-state solution was launched amid the Gaza war, the push for Palestinian statehood championed by Mahmoud Abbas has gained momentum. (Anadolu)

“No doubt Saudi Arabia is playing a leading role in this coalition, leveraging its regional and international influence as well as its longstanding support for the Palestinian cause,” Hani Nasira, an Egyptian writer and political expert, told Arab News.

“The Kingdom has consistently emphasized that the establishment of an independent Palestinian state is essential for peace and stability in the region and that any steps toward normalization with Israel must first secure Palestinian rights.”

This diplomatic strategy reflects Saudi Arabia’s commitment to balancing regional stability with the aspirations of the Palestinian people.

The question remains whether Abbas’ final years in power will witness the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Much depends on the success of Saudi Arabia’s initiative and the willingness of all parties to engage in meaningful negotiations.

“Observers believe that the chances of establishing a Palestinian state under President Mahmoud Abbas remain viable, though significant challenges persist,” said Nasira.




Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (C) and leaders from member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League during their joint extraordinary summit in Riyadh on November 11, 2024 to discuss efforts at finding a peaceful solution to the question of Palestine. (SPA/AFP)

“These obstacles require internal Palestinian unity and robust Arab and international support — something Saudi Arabia is actively seeking to provide.

“Additionally, many countries and international organizations continue to support the establishment of an independent Palestinian state along the 1967 borders under the current Palestinian leadership.

“This includes the EU and most Islamic nations, as President Abbas seeks backing for a peace initiative rooted in the two-state solution and international resolutions.

“It is therefore clear that the Global Alliance reflects Saudi Arabia’s steadfast commitment to supporting the Palestinian cause and its relentless pursuit of a just and comprehensive peace in the region.

“This initiative aims to guarantee Palestinian rights and establish normalized relations among all countries in the region.”

For Abbas, the stakes are high. His legacy will ultimately be defined by whether he can translate decades of advocacy for Palestinian statehood into tangible results.




A screen shows the results of the vote on the resolution entitled "Peaceful settlement of the question of Palestine" at the General Assembly 46th plenary meeting on Dec. 3, 2024, at the UN headquarters in New York City. (AFP)

The PA has expressed cautious optimism about the Saudi-led coalition, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach that addresses historic injustices and ensures Palestinian sovereignty.

However, significant obstacles persist. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shown little appetite for concessions, particularly on settlements and security issues, and has even dismissed the two-state solution out of hand.

As Abbas marks two decades in office, the Palestinians find themselves at a crossroads. While statehood remains elusive, renewed international focus on the conflict offers a glimmer of hope.

Abbas’ presidency has been a tale of resilience, missed opportunities, and unfulfilled aspirations. While his commitment to a two-state solution has earned him international respect, the lack of progress on the ground has left many Palestinians disillusioned.

“The Palestinian president remained focused on his peaceful mythology but failed to gain enough support in terms of electoral legitimization of his efforts,” Kuttab told Arab News.

“While Abbas’ direction directly reflected the recommendations of all of Palestine’s allies, they failed to engage or reward him for his rejection of violence and insistence of a politically negotiated solution to the Palestinian conflict.

“Nevertheless, President Abbas’ quest — that is, the national aspiration of Palestinians — remains to be the most logical step forward. Palestinian statehood is the best way to bring peace to the entire Middle East.”
 

 


Sudan activists sound alarm on ‘catastrophic’ situation in besieged Darfur city

Updated 06 April 2025
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Sudan activists sound alarm on ‘catastrophic’ situation in besieged Darfur city

  • According to UN estimates, around two million people face extreme food insecurity in North Darfur state, with 320,000 already suffering famine conditions

KHARTOUM: Civilians trapped in Sudan’s El-Fasher city are facing “catastrophic” conditions, activists warned on Sunday, with their situation rapidly deteriorating amid a months-long paramilitary siege.
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have taken most of the vast Darfur region in their war against the regular army since April 2023, but El-Fasher in North Darfur remains the only regional state capital the RSF has not conquered.
A local advocacy group, the Darfur General Coordination of Camps for the Displaced and Refugees, said in a statement that residents “bear the brunt of artillery shelling” and live “with the sounds of aircraft and their terrifying and deadly missiles, in addition to the daily suffering of hunger, disease and drought.”
Life in El-Fasher and other areas of Darfur “has come to a complete standstill,” the group said, with no food at markets and a “complete halt” in humanitarian aid.
There was a sharp rise in prices of basic commodities and “a severe shortage in cash,” it added, warning of an “unprecedented and catastrophic deterioration” in already dire conditions in and around El-Fasher.
The RSF-aligned armed group Sudan Liberation Army called on Saturday for civilians in El-Fasher and the nearby displacement camps of Abu Shouk and Zamzan to leave, warning of an “escalation of military operations.”
Another RSF ally, the Gathering of Sudan Liberation Forces, said it was ready to “provide safe corridors” for residents to leave and head to “liberated areas” under paramilitary control.
In late March, the RSF announced its fighters had seized Al-Malha, which lies at the foot of a mountainous region 200 kilometers (124 miles) northeast of El-Fasher.
Al-Malha is one of the northernmost towns in the vast desert region between Sudan and Libya, where the RSF’s critical resupply lines have come under increasing attack in recent months by army-allied groups.
The war has created what the United Nations describes as the world’s worst hunger and displacement crises. More than 12 million people have been uprooted, tens of thousands killed and a UN-backed assessment declared famine in parts of the country.
According to UN estimates, around two million people face extreme food insecurity in North Darfur state, with 320,000 already suffering famine conditions.
Zamzam is one of three displacement camps around El-Fasher hit by famine, which a UN-backed assessment says is expected to spread to five more areas including the state capital itself by May.


Israeli strikes on Gaza kill 32, mostly women and children

Updated 06 April 2025
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Israeli strikes on Gaza kill 32, mostly women and children

  • The latest Israeli strikes overnight into Sunday hit a tent and a house in the southern city of Khan Younis, killing five men, five women and five children, according to Nasser Hospital, which received the bodies

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip: Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip killed at least 32 people, including over a dozen women and children, local health officials said Sunday, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu headed to the United States to meet with President Donald Trump about the war.
Israel last month ended its ceasefire with Hamas and renewed its air and ground offensive, carrying out waves of strikes and seizing territory to pressure the militant group to accept a new deal for a truce and release of remaining hostages. It has also blocked the import of food, fuel and humanitarian aid for over a month to the coastal territory heavily reliant on outside assistance.
“Stocks are getting low and the situation is becoming desperate,” the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees said on social media.
The latest Israeli strikes overnight into Sunday hit a tent and a house in the southern city of Khan Younis, killing five men, five women and five children, according to Nasser Hospital, which received the bodies.
A female journalist was among those killed. “My daughter is innocent. She had no involvement, she loved journalism and adored it,” said her mother, Amal Kaskeen.
The body of one child, under 2 years old, took up just one end of an emergency stretcher.
“Trump wants to end the Gaza issue. He is in a hurry, and that is clear from this morning,” said Mohammad Abdel-Hadi, cousin of a woman killed.
Israeli shelling killed at least four people in the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The bodies of seven people, including a child and three women, arrived at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza, according to an Associated Press journalist there.
And a strike in Gaza City hit people waiting outside a bakery and killed at least six, including three children, according to the civil defense, which operates under the Hamas-run government.
Israel’s military said about 10 projectiles were fired from Gaza and most were intercepted, in the largest barrage from the territory since Israel resumed the war. Hamas’ military arm claimed responsibility. Israeli police said some fragments fell in Ashkelon city. There were no reports of injuries.
Netanyahu visits Trump amid anti-war protests
Dozens of Palestinians took to the streets in Jabaliya for a new round of anti-war protests. Footage circulating on social media showed people marching and chanting against Hamas. Such protests, while rare, have occurred in recent weeks.
There is also anger inside Israel over the war’s resumption and its effects on remaining hostages in Gaza. Families of hostages along with some of those recently freed from Gaza and their supporters on Saturday urged Trump to help ensure the fighting ends.
Netanyahu on Monday will meet with Trump for the second time since Trump began his latest term in January. The prime minister said they would discuss the war and the new 17 percent tariff imposed on Israel, part of a sweeping global decision by the new US administration.
“There is a very large queue of leaders who want to do this with respect to their economies. I think it reflects the special personal connection and the special connection between the United States and Israel, which is so vital at this time,” Netanyahu said while wrapping up a visit to Hungary.
The US, a mediator in ceasefire efforts along with Egypt and Qatar, expressed support for Israel’s resumption of the war last month.
The toll of war
Hundreds of Palestinians since then have been killed, among them 15 medics whose bodies were recovered only a week later. Israel’s military this weekend backtracked on its account of what happened in the incident, captured in part on video, that caused anger by Red Cross and Red Crescent and UN officials.
The war began when Hamas-led militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage. Fifty-nine hostages are still held in Gaza — 24 believed to be alive — after most of the rest were released in ceasefires or other deals.
Israel’s offensive has killed at least 50,695 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not say how many were civilians or combatants but says more than half were women and children. It says another 115,338 people have been wounded. Israel says it has killed around 20,000 militants, without providing evidence.


UNICEF forced to shut down malnutrition centers in Gaza amid worsening humanitarian crisis

Updated 06 April 2025
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UNICEF forced to shut down malnutrition centers in Gaza amid worsening humanitarian crisis

  • The closures are directly linked to Israel’s renewed military actions and the increasingly volatile security situation
  • UNICEF is awaiting findings from a special body tasked with assessing the scale of food insecurity in Gaza, official says

GAZA: The UN Children’s Fund has closed 21 malnutrition treatment centers in the Gaza Strip, citing ongoing Israeli military operations and recent evacuation orders in the areas where these centers were operating.

Kazem Abu Khalaf, a spokesperson for the organization, said on Sunday that the closures were directly linked to Israel’s renewed military actions and the increasingly volatile security situation, Palestinian WAFA news agency reported.

Abu Khalaf added that UNICEF was currently awaiting findings from a special body tasked with assessing the scale of food insecurity in Gaza, with the aim of presenting a comprehensive picture of the deteriorating conditions.

The closures come as Gaza faces an unprecedented humanitarian emergency, exacerbated by Israel’s continued blockade of aid into the enclave.

According to UNICEF, Israeli authorities have blocked all crossings into Gaza for 35 consecutive days, preventing the entry of food, medical supplies, and nutritional supplements.

On Saturday, UNICEF issued a stark warning, stating that more than one million children in Gaza have been cut off from life-saving humanitarian assistance for over a month.

The organization condemned the blockade, calling it a violation of international humanitarian law with devastating consequences for children and other vulnerable groups.

UNICEF confirmed it has thousands of aid parcels ready for immediate delivery but has been unable to gain access. It also revealed that food supplies for infants in Gaza have been entirely depleted, while the remaining stock of ready-to-use infant milk is only sufficient to feed 400 children for one month.

The crisis in Gaza has intensified since the resumption of hostilities in March, which ended a temporary ceasefire which came into force earlier this year.

Israel’s war with Hamas, which started in October 2023, has left much of Gaza’s infrastructure in ruins and displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians.

Aid agencies have repeatedly warned of the risk of famine and a collapse of basic health services unless humanitarian access is urgently restored.


French, Algerian ties ‘back to normal’, France says after talks

Updated 06 April 2025
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French, Algerian ties ‘back to normal’, France says after talks

  • French foreign minister in Algiers after presidents talk
  • French firms being cut out, wheat imports collapse

ALGIERS: France’s foreign minister said on Sunday that ties with Algeria were back to normal after he held 2 1/2 hours of talks with Algeria’s president following months of bickering that have hurt Paris’ economic and security interests in its former colony.
Ties between Paris and Algiers have been complicated for decades, but took a turn for the worse last July when Macron angered Algeria by recognizing a plan for autonomy for the Western Sahara region under Moroccan sovereignty.
A poor relationship has major security, economic and social repercussions: trade is extensive and some 10 percent of France’s 68 million population has links to Algeria, according to French officials.
“We are reactivating as of today all the mechanisms of cooperation in all sectors. We are going back to normal and to repeat the words of President (Abdelmadjid) Tebboune: ‘the curtain is lifted’,” Jean-Noel Barrot said in a statement at the presidential palace in Algiers after 2 1/2 hours of talks.
His visit comes after a call between President Emmanuel Macron and his counterpart Tebboune on March 31, during which the two agreed to a broad roadmap to calm tensions.
French officials say Algiers had put obstacles to administrative authorizations and new financing for French firms operating in the country.
Nowhere was that felt more than in wheat imports. Traders say the diplomatic rift led Algerian grains agency OAIC to tacitly exclude French wheat and firms in its import tenders since October. OAIC has said it treats all suppliers fairly, applying technical requirements.
Barrot said he had specifically brought up the difficulties regarding economic exchanges, notably in the agrobusiness, automobile and maritime transport sectors.
“President Tebboune reassured me of his will to give them new impetus,” Barrot said.

AUTHOR ARRESTED
Beyond business, the relationship has also soured to the point where security cooperation, including over Islamist militancy, stopped. The detention by Algiers in November of 80-year-old Franco-Algerian author Boualem Sansal also worsened the relationship.
He has since been sentenced to five years in prison. Barrot said he hoped a gesture of “humanity” could be made by Algiers given his age and health.
With Macron’s government under pressure to toughen immigration policies, the spat has fed into domestic politics in both countries.
Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau has called for a 1968 pact between the two countries that makes it easier for Algerians to settle in France to be reviewed, after Algiers refused to take back some of its citizens who were ordered to leave France under the “OQTF” (obligation to leave French territory) deportation regime.
Barrot said Retailleau would soon go to Algiers and that the two sides would resume cooperation on judicial issues.
The relationship between the two countries is scarred by the trauma of the 1954-1962 war in which the North African country, which had a large settler population and was treated as an integral part of France under colonial rule, won independence.


Frankly Speaking: Will President Aoun deliver on his pledges for Lebanon? 

Updated 06 April 2025
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Frankly Speaking: Will President Aoun deliver on his pledges for Lebanon? 

  • Nadim Shehadi sees hope for Lebanon’s economic recovery if the nation’s Shiite community is “liberated” from Hezbollah’s control
  • Economist and political analyst says full normalization between Lebanon and Israel is unlikely unless the Palestinian issue is resolved

RIYADH: Lebanon faces a pivotal moment in its history as President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam take the reins of a country battered by years of economic crisis, political paralysis, and regional instability.

Upon taking office in January, ending a two-year political vacuum, Aoun pledged to prioritize reform and recovery, address the influence of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, revitalize the Lebanese economy, and pursue regional cooperation and stability.

Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking,” Lebanese economist and political analyst Nadim Shehadi examined whether Aoun is likely to deliver on his pledges or if notions of Lebanon’s rebirth are overly optimistic.

“There is certainly a lot of optimism, not just because of local developments in Lebanon, but because of major regional ones and international developments,” Shehadi said.

“It looks like the international and regional forces are aligned to resolve the problems of the region as a whole, not just of Lebanon. And that’s the cause of the optimism, because a lot of the problems here depend on a regional solution in a way.”

One of the defining features of Aoun’s leadership is his outsider status. Unlike many of his predecessors, Aoun hails from the military rather than Lebanon’s entrenched political establishment — a fact that has bolstered hopes for meaningful change.

Lebanese economist and political analyst Nadim Shehadi examined whether President Aoun is likely to deliver on his pledges or if notions of Lebanon’s rebirth are overly optimistic. (AN Photo)

“The election of General Aoun, which came with international support, one of the significant features of this is that he’s from outside the political establishment,” Shehadi told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“Same with the prime minister, who has also been brought in from outside the political establishment,” he added, referring to Salam’s background in the judiciary. “That’s another cause for optimism.”

However, optimism alone cannot solve Lebanon’s deep-seated problems. The country remains mired in economic turmoil, with widespread poverty and unemployment exacerbated by years of mismanagement and corruption.

The Lebanese pound has lost more than 90 percent of its value since the 2019 crash, plunging millions into hardship. This was compounded by the coronavirus pandemic, the Beirut port blast, and the war between Israel and Hezbollah.

When asked whether Hezbollah, which has dominated Lebanese political affairs for decades, could derail Lebanon’s reform and recovery efforts, Shehadi was unequivocal. “Absolutely. This is the main issue,” he said.

Hezbollah emerged from the Lebanese civil war of 1975-90 as a formidable military and political force, drawing on support from Lebanon’s Shiite community and the backing of Iran, which used it as a bulwark against Israel.

In solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah fought a year-long war with Israel that resulted in the gutting of the militia’s leadership, the loss of its once formidable arsenal, and the emptying of its coffers, leaving it unable to financially support its base.

Adding to its woes, the fall of the Bashar Assad regime in neighboring Syria deprived Hezbollah of a long-term ally, which had provided a land bridge for the delivery of weapons and funds from Iran via Iraq.

Despite its enfeebled state, which is reflected in its limited role in the new Lebanese government, Shehadi said Hezbollah’s continued grip on Lebanon’s Shiite community poses a significant challenge to Aoun’s aim of achieving national unity and progress.

“The question is not about the destruction of Hezbollah or of its infrastructure,” he said. “The question is the liberation of the community, of the Shiite community, from the grip of Hezbollah.”

He argued that Hezbollah’s Achilles’ heel lies within its own enabling environment — its constituency — which must decide to reject its agenda and integrate fully into Lebanese society. Shehadi said Hezbollah’s economic stranglehold on its community is a critical issue.

“Even the institutions of Hezbollah that are being targeted — the economic institutions of Hezbollah — the money is not Hezbollah’s money. The money is in large part that of the community, and that money has been hijacked by Hezbollah,” he said.

A handout photo provided by the Lebanese Presidency on April 5, 2025, shows Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun (R) meeting with US Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus (2nd-R) and members of her delegation at the Presidential Palace in Baabda. (AFP via Lebanese Presidency)

Addressing this issue requires a political solution rather than a military confrontation, he added.

Under the US-brokered ceasefire deal struck between Hezbollah and Israel last November, it was agreed that the militia would disarm, handing the monopoly on the use of force to the Lebanese Armed Forces.

In exchange for Israeli forces withdrawing from Lebanese territory, Hezbollah fighters were also required to retreat from Israel’s border to the Litani River — a key stipulation in the UN resolution that ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

Little progress has been made on this front, leading to suggestions that the Lebanese army could be deployed to disarm Hezbollah by force. However, Shehadi dismissed this idea as both impractical and undesirable.

“No, I don’t think (Aoun) ever meant to say that either,” he said. “He never meant that the Lebanese army would clash with Hezbollah and disarm Hezbollah by force. That was never on the cards and will never be on the cards. And it’s not possible.”

Far from risking a replay of the Lebanese civil war, Shehadi said that rebuilding Lebanon would require a political agreement among all communities.

“Even if it was possible (to disarm Hezbollah by force), it’s not desirable because reconstituting the country, putting it back on track, includes a political agreement between all its components,” he said.

Shehadi expressed confidence that Hezbollah is unlikely to return to its previous position of strength due to growing dissatisfaction within its constituency. “I don’t think its own constituency would accept that,” he said.

In light of US-brokered normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states, questions have arisen about whether Lebanon could follow suit under Aoun’s leadership. Shehadi said this is unlikely without first addressing the Palestinian question.

“I don’t think that normalization is possible without a solution to the Palestinian issue, especially not with Lebanon and also not with Saudi Arabia,” he said.

He pointed out that both countries adhere to the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, which calls for the full Israeli withdrawal from the Palestinian occupied territories and a two-state solution before normalization can occur.

Instead, Shehadi suggested revisiting historical agreements like the May 1983 accord between Israel and Lebanon as a potential model for coexistence. “Lebanon can also look back to … the 17th of May Agreement … which I think is the best Lebanon can achieve with Israel,” he said.

Furthermore, domestic resistance to normalization remains strong due to Israel’s past military actions in Lebanon. “There are lots of issues that need to be resolved with Israel,” said Shehadi.

“Israel’s bombing of the country is not conducive to peace. It’s not a way of getting yourself loved, if you like, by the way they destroyed the villages and all that.

“So, there would be a resistance to normalization for internal reasons. And because we do not see Israel as being in a mood for peace.”

funeral of Hezbollah fighters, killed before the November 27 ceasefire with Israel, in southern Lebanese village of al-Taybeh, near the border with Israel on April 6, 2025. (AFP)

Lebanon's economic collapse in 2019 has left billions missing from banks and central reserves — a crisis that new central bank governor, Karim Souaid, must urgently address. Shehadi said that resolving these losses will be pivotal for Lebanon’s recovery.

“The biggest question is where are the losses going to go? There are billions of dollars that have disappeared from the banks and from the central banks. These are the depositors’ money and the banks’ money. And so the big question is who will bear the cost of that?

“The way you resolve this should also set the country on a path to recovery. And the binary view of this is that it is the state versus the banks, but in reality, Lebanon cannot survive without the banks and Lebanon cannot survive without the state.

“So, there’s going to be a middle ground, hopefully favoring the banking system, because I believe that the banking system is the main engine of the economy. The new governor has a huge job to do.”

While corruption is often cited as a primary cause of many of Lebanon’s problems, Shehadi challenged this narrative.

“This is a very dominant narrative about Lebanon, that it was years of corruption. What happened in Lebanon and the reason for the meltdown is not years of corruption,” he said.

“What happened is the result of years of the state and society being pounded, being battered, if you like, through assassinations, through declarations of war, through paralysis of government. 

“We’ve had three periods of between two to three years of total paralysis with no president, no government and parliament in any way. We’ve had 2 million Syrian refugees, which are a huge burden on the economy.

“We’ve had a constant state of war in the sense that every year Hezbollah declares war on Israel five times. And that paralyzes the economy. That cancels trips, cancels investment opportunities.

“So, all of that accumulated cost of the paralysis, the wars, is what brought the country down. It’s wrong to emphasize the corruption of the country as a reason for it.”

Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking,” Shehadi was unequivocal when asked whether Hezbollah, which has dominated Lebanese political affairs for decades, could derail Lebanon’s reform and recovery efforts. (AN Photo)

He added: “The rich political elite want stability. And the bankers want stability. The financiers want stability. Because they are very invested in the country. There has been a wrong narrative that has set in.”

Saudi Arabia has historically played a significant role in Lebanese affairs — a relationship Aoun sought to strengthen during his recent visit to Riyadh. However, challenges remain — most notably Riyadh’s travel ban on Saudis visiting Lebanon.

Shehadi expressed optimism about Saudi-Lebanese relations returning to normalcy. “I’m optimistic that this will come back,” he said.

“The normal state of affairs is good relations. What we had in the last probably 15 years was an exception. It was not a normal state of affairs. It’s not the default state of relations.”

He dismissed sectarian interpretations of Saudi support in Lebanon. “I don’t think it was ever that clear-cut, that they support a prime minister because the prime minister is Sunni,” he said.

“Saudi Arabia had allies in Lebanon and supported the country and had opponents from (different sects). I don’t think it was determined by sect or religion. I don’t think the Kingdom behaves that way.”

With Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa signaling a shift toward respecting Lebanon’s sovereignty following the fall of Assad, questions arise about future Lebanese-Syrian relations. 

“The whole region is entering a new phase,” said Shehadi. “The phase we are getting out of, which we have been in for probably the last half century, was one which did not respect the sovereignty of individual countries in the region.

“It was one dominated by political parties that aimed to dominate their neighbors. Like the Ba’ath. I mean, the example is Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, of course, and Syrian intervention in Lebanon and Syrian problems with Turkiye, with Jordan.

“We have an order which is changing. We’re entering a new order. And, hopefully, that order will be more in line with the original protocols that set up the Arab League in 1944, which was the Alexandria protocols, which enhanced cooperation between the Arab countries, both culturally and economically, but also respect for each other’s sovereignty.”