Pakistan’s insurgency problem has consequences for the whole region
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In the first week of the new year, a most daring attack by separatists in Balochistan occurred as dozens of heavily armed militants stormed a remote district headquarter in the strategic western province and set up checkpoints around town. The incident marked a shift from the hit and run strategy of militants to actually taking control of a territory.
Although their rule lasted for only a few hours, it showed the growing capacity of rebel groups fighting the Pakistani military. There is now a looming fear that the low intensity insurgency that has gripped Pakistan’s largest province in terms of land mass for over two decades, could turn into a full-blown insurrection with the rising alienation of the local population from the state.
The denial of democratic rights, state oppression and poverty has pushed many, particularly among the educated youth, toward militancy. The separatist groups which allegedly also receive support from other countries are now better organized and armed with sophisticated weaponry. This makes them equipped to carry out the kinds of attacks we witnessed last week.
Violence by Baloch separatist factions, primarily by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has killed about 300 people over the past year, marking an escalation in the decades-long conflict. There have also been reports of some kind of a tactical alliance between certain factions of Pakistani Taliban groups which are mainly active in Pakistan’s northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhawa (KP). This unholy alliance between the groups with differing ideologies has added to Pakistan’s security challenges.
2024 witnessed the highest number of terror attacks in Pakistan in a decade. The latest wave of militant raids in KP and Balochistan is a grim reminder of the resurgence of the menace with greater ferocity. While the nature of the security challenges in the two provinces is different, the combination has added to the complexity of the terror threat. It’s a nightmare for the country in the face of growing political instability.
The increasing number of attacks on Chinese workers has a serious geopolitical consequence.
Zahid Hussain
There were not only targeted attacks but the militants reportedly also clashed with security forces and blocked highways connecting the province with other parts of the country. Recent unconfirmed footage showed gunmen roaming the streets of Turbat, the second-largest town of the province. Government officials were also targeted. There was complete mayhem with the administration’s collapse in the troubled districts.
Unsurprisingly, all the attacks have taken place in a region that has long been the epicenter of political discontent. The latest high-profile militant attacks took place after the mass protests in southern Balochistan. This led to the Pakistani military launching a renewed kinetic operation in the region that is considered the main center of militancy. The worst affected areas include the coastal belt and the region bordering Iran. It is also the region where China is helping with the development of Gwadar, a key seaport on the Arabian sea. The port is a flagship project of the multibillion-dollar China Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC).
Also, the recent surge in attacks on Chinese nationals working on various CPEC projects in Balochistan has been most worrisome. In last August, militants attacked a convoy of vehicles belonging to Chinese engineers in Gwadar city (Gwadar District) killing several foreign workers. Many more Chinese workers have been killed in the attacks in the province and outside. The BLA which took responsibility for the attacks issued an ultimatum for China to withdraw from Balochistan or prepare for intensified attacks on its ‘key interests’ in the region.
Meanwhile, the workers mainly from Punjab engaged on the CPEC projects are also targeted because the insurgents fear that CPEC will convert the Baloch people into minorities in their own homeland. In some instances, passengers were offloaded from buses on the main highway linking the province with Punjab and shot in cold blood. Such incidents have given a horrific turn to the separatist militancy.
The increasing number of attacks on Chinese workers has a serious geopolitical consequence. According to some reports, the surge in militant attacks has resulted in the slowing down of the work on CPEC projects with the Chinese government asking Islamabad to ensure the security and safety of their citizens. The large toll of casualties suffered by Chinese nationals working on CPEC projects underscores the gravity of the situation.
Indeed, no state can tolerate such acts of violence and challenge to its writ. There can be no two views about the state’s right to use force to fight off the separatist insurgency. But there is also a need to look at the roots of the political unrest that is feeding into the rising insurgency in the province. It is the flawed approach of the security apparatus that has largely been responsible for the present state of affairs in the province.
- Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson Centre and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with Militant Islam and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan. Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ. His latest book ‘No-Win War’ was published this year. X: @hidhussain
