RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s real gross domestic product is projected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2026, a rate that surpasses forecasts for the US, Germany, the UK, and France, according to an analysis.

In its latest report, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that the Kingdom’s economy is projected to grow by 1.8 percent this year, also higher than several of its G20 peers. 

In April, the International Monetary Fund projected that the Kingdom’s economy would witness a growth of 3 percent in 2025 and would further accelerate to 3.7 percent the following year. 

In its latest report, the OECD also downgraded its global economic growth prospects from 3 percent to 2.9 percent for both 2025 and 2026. 

“The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging. Substantial increases in trade barriers, tighter financial conditions, weakened business and consumer confidence, and elevated policy uncertainty all pose significant risks to growth,” said the OECD. 

It added: “Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 2.9 percent this year and next year based on the assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained.” 

Collectively, G20 nations are expected to witness an economic growth of 2.9 percent in both 2025 and 2026, with India bucking the trend amid economic volatility. 

According to the report, India’s GDP is expected to expand by 6.3 percent in 2025 and 6.4 percent in 2026. 

The OECD added that China’s economy will grow by 4.7 percent and 4.3 percent in 2025 and 2026, respectively, while the US is expected to witness an economic growth of 1.6 percent in 2025 and 1.5 percent in 2026. 

The French economy is forecast to expand by 0.6 percent in 2025 before slightly accelerating to 0.9 percent in 2026, and the OECD projects the UK’s economy will advance by 1.3 percent in 2025, while it will decelerate to 1 percent growth next year. 

According to the report, Germany’s GDP is set to grow by 1.2 percent during 2026.

The OECD further stated that Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a healthy inflation rate of 1.9 percent in 2025 and 1.8 percent in 2026, respectively. 

In April, the IMF also predicted that inflation in the Kingdom would remain contained, with the average annual rate holding steady at 2.1 percent in 2025 and easing slightly to 2 percent the following year. 

Collectively, among G20 nations, inflation is expected to average 3.6 percent in 2025 and 3.2 percent in 2026, according to OECD. 

“Rising trade costs — particularly in countries implementing new tariffs — are likely to fuel inflation, although this may be partly offset by softer commodity prices. Risks to the outlook remain substantial,” said OECD. 

It added: “Inflation may also stay elevated for longer than anticipated, especially if inflation expectations continue to rise. On the upside, an early reversal of recent trade barriers could boost economic growth and help ease inflationary pressures.” 

The OECD emphasized that governments should work together to resolve their concerns about the global trading system rather than escalating tensions through more retaliatory trade barriers.

The analysis urged governments to implement reforms that would reduce trade fragmentation, along with strengthening the supply chain by diversifying both suppliers and buyers. 

The OECD also highlighted the importance of implementing effective monetary policies, noting that central banks should remain vigilant to prevent disinflation in times of heightened uncertainty and increased trade costs. 

“Provided trade tensions do not intensify further and inflation expectations remain anchored, policy rate reductions can continue in economies where inflation is projected to moderate,” added the report. 

The study also emphasized the need to increase investments to ensure resilient growth among nations, suggesting that governments should implement structural policy reforms to revitalize the business environment.

According to the OECD, governments should foster business dynamism by promoting competition, reducing entry barriers, and supporting entrepreneurship. 

“Reducing policy uncertainty is particularly important, as it would lower the risk premia businesses build into their hurdle rates, thereby encouraging capital spending,” added the OECD.

RIYADH: Business conditions in Kuwait’s non-oil private sector continued to expand in May, while Egypt experienced a slower pace of contraction, offering tentative signs of stabilization. 

According to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys released by S&P Global, Kuwait’s PMI stood at 53.9, down slightly from 54.2 in April but remaining comfortably above the 50 no change mark. 

Meanwhile, Egypt’s PMI rose from 48.5 in April to 49.5 in May, its highest level in three months, but still below the neutral 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction. 

In Kuwait, non-oil firms reported strong growth in both output and new orders, extending a streak of expansion to 28 consecutive months. 

Respondents attributed the uptick to competitive pricing strategies and enhanced marketing efforts. 

Kuwait’s expansion aligns with broader economic projections by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, with real gross domestic product growth forecasts of 1.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, in 2025. 

These projections reflect a recovery from two consecutive years of contraction, supported by rising oil production as OPEC+ cuts ease, and expanding non-oil activity led by infrastructure development and credit growth. 

“The strong growth seen in April was largely maintained in May, with companies in Kuwait again reporting sharp increases in output and new orders,” said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

“This sustained expansion is putting pressure on firms to build capacity, and extra staff were hired accordingly in May,” he added. 

Employment rose for the third consecutive month, and the rate of job creation was the joint-fastest recorded since the PMI series began in 2018. 

However, staffing growth remained modest overall and did not fully alleviate rising backlogs of work. 

“The pace of job creation was still only modest, however, and backlogs of work continued to rise, so we may see even greater employment growth in the months ahead,” Harker added. 

Purchasing activity also increased for the second month running, and firms reported a solid build-up in input inventories. Supplier performance improved, with delivery times shortening for the third consecutive month. 

Cost pressures intensified midway through the second quarter, driven by rising prices for advertising, transport, staffing, food, and stationery. 

Input price inflation accelerated to its highest level since March 2024, prompting firms to raise output prices at the sharpest rate in nearly a year. 

Despite these challenges, business confidence reached a 12-month high in May, with 36 percent of respondents expecting output to grow over the next year. 

Optimism was supported by stronger demand, competitive pricing, and ongoing marketing activity. 

Egypt en route to stabilization 

In Egypt, although the non-oil private sector remained under pressure, the pace of deterioration in business conditions slowed. 

The headline PMI of 49.5, up from 48.5 in April, indicated the mildest contraction since February. 

The improvement came amid softer declines in both output and new business, aided by a rebound in the manufacturing sector. 

Egypt’s softer PMI contraction in May aligns with the IMF’s upward revision of the country’s growth forecast to 3.8 percent for 2025, signaling emerging signs of resilience in the non-oil economy. 

“Output and new orders fell at the slowest rates for three months,” said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

“Nevertheless, a number of surveyed firms continued to report softness in market demand, leading them to cut back on purchases and staffing,” he added. 

Companies in Egypt reduced purchasing activity at the fastest rate since October, citing efforts to streamline inventories in response to subdued demand. 

Stock levels of inputs rose only marginally. Employment fell for the fourth consecutive month, though the decline remained mild, driven primarily by a policy of not replacing staff who voluntarily left their positions. 

Egyptian businesses faced the steepest rate of input cost inflation so far in 2025, with price increases reported for fuel, cement, and paper. 

Volatile exchange rates, particularly the weakening of the Egyptian pound against the US dollar, further contributed to supplier price hikes. 

Wage inflation, by contrast, remained modest. After flatlining in April, output prices rose at the fastest pace in seven months as firms passed on part of their rising costs to customers. 

Sentiment in Egypt improved slightly from April, though optimism remained below historical norms. 

“Although many of the key PMI metrics continued to indicate a deterioration in business conditions in May, the overall pace of decline was not as sharp as in April and softer than the survey’s historical trend,” Owen added. 

Persistent cost pressures and weak domestic demand continued to weigh on expectations for future activity. 

Some businesses voiced concern over external headwinds, including global trade uncertainty and the impact of US tariffs.