Pakistan’s quest for economic growth: Can Uraan help?
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The “Uraan Pakistan” plan, recently launched by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, marks an important moment in the country’s economic history, setting an ambitious target of achieving a US $3 trillion economy by 2047. This vision, spearheaded by the government, reflects a strategic response to Pakistan’s pressing economic challenges. Central to this vision is the 5Es (exports, energy, economic growth, education and equality) framework.
Building upon initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the framework aims to unlock potential in five areas, including boosting exports, advancing digital infrastructure, enhancing climate resilience, promoting renewable energy, and ensuring more inclusive growth that benefits marginalized communities. The plan has been developed through consultations with stakeholder input and carries a commitment by all provincial Chief Ministers to support the implementation. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia too are strengthening economic ties by moving from aid-based relations to trade and investment value chains— a shift also envisioned with the broader GCC. Saudi interest in Pakistan’s mining sector aligns with its own diversification goals, complementing existing investments in agriculture, energy, and finance. Unlike past short term assistance, these investments aim to boost Pakistan’s forex reserves through increased export receipts, reinforcing Saudi Arabia’s commitment to supporting Pakistan’s financial stability, including assurances to lenders like the IMF.
However, the challenges of implementing such a national plan in a developing country cannot be underestimated. Success will depend on sustained political will, a commitment to policy consistency, and effective leadership at all levels of the government. The implementation demands strong institutions and transparent governance that can address inefficiency, safeguard against corruption, and ensure equitable outcomes even when governments change.
One of the key hurdles is the need for effective coordination across government levels. While the Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives is driving the plan, its success hinges on the capacity of provincial planning departments to adapt and implement innovative strategies at the local level. To avoid fragmentation, policy coherence across all tiers of government is essential. Equally, resource mobilization through public-private partnerships and foreign investment must be accompanied by clear fiscal discipline to prevent past pitfalls of overspending and inefficiency.
It is important to acknowledge that vast parts of the country experience market failures where private investment is scarce. These regions often lack the necessary infrastructure and resources to attract private capital, making targeted public investment essential for human development. To effectively address these disparities, improvements are required in federal and provincial public investment regime.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia too are strengthening economic ties by moving from aid-based relations to trade and investment value chains — a shift also envisioned with the broader GCC.
Vaqar Ahmed
At the heart of the plan’s success will be the inclusion of the private sector, civil society, and international partners to ensure the alignment of the framework with local needs and global best practices. Furthermore, the mobilization of practice communities (e.g., academics, Chambers of Commerce, trade associations etc.) and increased public awareness will help participation, a critical element in ensuring the framework’s long-term sustainability and buy-in. Appropriate monitoring and evaluation systems at the ministry will be crucial to track progress, adapt strategies where needed, and build accountability.
Roughly 30 percent of provincial development spending is aimed at the local level; however, the absence of effective local governments hampers the realization of these investments. In their absence, it is imperative that the current civil service at the provincial level takes on the responsibility of ensuring that finance and planning units within district administrations are adequately equipped to implement the 5Es Plan.
Establishing clear communication channels between the provincial government and local administrations will facilitate the better alignment of development priorities.
Moreover, Pakistan’s vulnerability to external shocks — ranging from natural disasters to global economic crises — cannot be ignored. As the country moves forward with the 5Es Framework, these contingencies must be built into long-term planning. Developing the capacity of public sector employees and ensuring that they are adequately trained and equipped to design and implement resilient public sector programs is important.
Regional trade is crucial for building economic resilience, and enhancing competitiveness. If the country cannot normalize trade relations with its neighbors, it will struggle to compete effectively in the global market.
International cooperation, in the form of financial and technical support, will also play a vital role in the plan’s success. Development partners must be convinced that Uraan Pakistan offers a clear departure from past failures. The federal government needs an overhaul of the donor coordination mechanism to avoid overlaps across foreign funded programs.
The aim of achieving a US $3 trillion economy by 2047 can be helped by diaspora investments. Engaging the Pakistani diaspora — who possess not only financial resources but also valuable networks and expertise — can provide a crucial influx of knowledge transfer. Strong connections between local entrepreneurs and the diaspora can ultimately support the creation of value chains that promote future-ready industries and workforce.
Finally, the previous efforts, such as the Charter of Economy often suggested to political parties by the sitting Prime Minister, have faltered and reasons are known to all. The Uraan Pakistan plan must learn from these historical failures and avoid the mistakes of the past.
- Dr. Vaqar Ahmed is an economist and former civil servant.
