WASHINGTON: The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4 percentage point to 2.3 percent, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a “significant headwind” for nearly all economies.
In its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, the bank lowered its forecasts for nearly 70 percent of all economies — including the United States, China and Europe, as well as six emerging market regions — from the levels it projected just six months ago before US President Donald Trump took office.
Trump has upended global trade with a series of on-again, off-again tariff hikes that have increased the effective US tariff rate from below 3 percent to the mid-teens — its highest level in almost a century — and triggered retaliation by China and other countries.
The World Bank is the latest body to cut its growth forecast as a result of Trump’s erratic trade policies, although US officials insist the negative consequences will be offset by a surge in investment and still-to-be approved tax cuts.
The bank stopped short of forecasting a recession, but said global economic growth this year would be its weakest outside of a recession since 2008. By 2027, global gross domestic product growth was expected to average just 2.5 percent, the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s.
The report forecast that global trade would grow by 1.8 percent in 2025, down from 3.4 percent in 2024 and roughly a third of its 5.9 percent level in the 2000s. The forecast is based on tariffs in effect as of late May, including a 10 percent US tariff on imports from most countries. It excludes increases announced by Trump in April and then postponed until July 9 to allow for negotiations.
The bank said global inflation was expected to reach 2.9 percent in 2025, remaining above pre-COVID levels, given tariff increases and tight labor markets.
“Risks to the global outlook remain tilted decidedly to the downside,” the bank wrote. It said its models showed that a further 10-percentage point increase in average US tariffs, on top of the 10 percent rate already implemented, and proportional retaliation by other countries, could shave another 0.5 percentage point off the outlook for 2025.
Such an escalation in trade barriers would result “in global trade seizing up in the second half of this year ... accompanied by a widespread collapse in confidence, surging uncertainty and turmoil in financial markets,” the report said.
Nonetheless, it said the risk of a global recession was less than 10 percent.
’FOG ON A RUNWAY’
Top officials from the United States and China are meeting in London this week to try to defuse a trade dispute that has widened from tariffs to restrictions over rare earth minerals, threatening a global supply chain shock and slower growth.
“Uncertainty remains a powerful drag, like fog on a runway. It slows investment and clouds the outlook,” World Bank Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose told Reuters in an interview.
But he said there were signs of increased dialogue on trade that could help dispel uncertainty, and supply chains were adapting to a new global trade map, not collapsing. Global trade growth could see a modest rebound in 2026 to 2.4 percent, and developments in artificial intelligence could also boost growth, he said.
“We think that eventually the uncertainty will decline,” he said. “Once the type of fog we have lifts, the trade engine may start running again, but at a slower pace.”
Kose said while things could get worse, trade was continuing and China, India and others were still delivering robust growth. Many countries were also discussing new trade partnerships that could pay dividends later, he said.
US GROWTH FORECAST CUT SHARPLY
The World Bank said the global outlook had “deteriorated substantially” since January, mainly due to advanced economies, now seen growing by just 1.2 percent, down half a point, after expanding 1.7 percent in 2024.
The US forecast was slashed by 0.9 percentage point from its January forecast to 1.4 percent, and the 2026 outlook was lowered by 0.4 percentage point to 1.6 percent. Rising trade barriers, “record-high uncertainty” and a spike in financial market volatility were expected to weigh on private consumption, trade and investment, it said.
Growth estimates in the euro area were cut by 0.3 percentage point to 0.7 percent and in Japan by 0.5 percentage point to 0.7 percent.
It said emerging markets and developing economies were expected to grow by 3.8 percent in 2025 versus 4.1 percent in January’s forecast.
Poor countries would suffer the most, the report said. By 2027 developing economies’ per capita GDP would be 6 percent below pre-pandemic levels, and it could take these countries — minus China — two decades to recoup the economic losses of the 2020s.
Mexico, heavily dependent on trade with the US, saw its growth forecast cut by 1.3 percentage points to 0.2 percent in 2025.
The World Bank left its forecast for China unchanged at 4.5 percent from January, saying Beijing still had monetary and fiscal space to support its economy and stimulate growth.

NEW DELHI: India’s Coast Guard and Navy were struggling on Tuesday to extinguish a fire on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship that exploded in the Arabian Sea, triggering an alarm over its load of 100 tonnes of bunker oil.

The MV Wan Hai 503, en route to Mumbai from Sri Lanka, reported an internal container explosion on Monday, which triggered a major fire on board as the vessel approached the coast of the southern state of Kerala.

The Indian Coast Guard said the situation was “critical” as its ships engaged in an overnight operation to douse the flames and rescue 22 members of the vessel’s crew.

Four crew remain missing. Two of them are from Thailand, one from Indonesia and one from Myanmar, according to Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority, which sent a team to assist the Indian rescuers.

Containers falling from the ship were reported drifting between Kerala’s Kozhikode and Kochi, triggering an alert by the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services over a potential spill of what it identified as 100 tonnes of bunker oil.

Bunker oil is a thick, heavy and viscous fuel used to power large ships, especially cargo vessels and tankers. It is one of the dirtiest and most polluting fuels.

It contains sulfur, heavy metals and carcinogens. If spilled, it is difficult to clean up and may persist for months or years in the marine environment, suffocating coral reefs and killing fish and seabirds.

“Caution is advised about a few containers beaching between Kozhikode and Kochi,” the INCOIS said in a notification, adding that there was an “estimated 70-80 percent probability” that the containers that went overboard from the MV Wan Hai 503 might drift south-southeastwards from the accident location for the next three days.

The incident took place just two weeks after a Liberian-flagged vessel carrying hazardous cargo sank off Kerala’s coast.

The vessel went down with cargo containing calcium carbide and more than 84 metric tonnes of diesel, and 367 metric tonnes of furnace oil.

Diesel and furnace oil are both classified as marine pollutants that are toxic to marine life and can contaminate coastal ecosystems.