What Donald Trump’s return to the White House means for the Middle East

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US President-elect Donald Trump and his wife Melania Trump meet with US President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden on Inauguration Day in Washington, US Jan. 20, 2025. (Reuters)
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Updated 21 January 2025
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What Donald Trump’s return to the White House means for the Middle East

  • Trump’s inauguration is expected to usher in a new era of US engagement with the region, with major implications for Palestine and Iran
  • New administration has signaled a desire to expand the Abraham Accords, pursue normalization, and resume maximum pressure on Tehran

LONDON: On Monday, the 47th president of the US will be sworn in at a ceremony at the US Capitol in Washington D.C., marking perhaps the greatest political comeback in American history.

For the Middle East, the second inauguration of Donald Trump is expected to usher in a new era of US engagement, overseen by an instinctively disruptive president who is as hard to read as he is transactional.

If any evidence was needed that the incoming administration is eager to wield its influence in the region, it came on January 15, when the outgoing president announced the long-awaited Israel-Hamas ceasefire-for-hostages deal had finally been agreed.

For the now former president, Joe Biden, announcing the breakthrough “after eight months of nonstop negotiation by my administration,” it should have been a triumphant, legacy-defining moment. Instead, he was blindsided by the first question hurled at him by the media.

“Who will the history books credit for this, Mr. President?” a reporter called out. “You or Trump?”




US President-elect Donald Trump arrives for a service at St. John’s Church on Inauguration Day in Washington, US, Jan. 20, 2025. (Reuters)

Biden, clearly shocked, paused before replying: “Is that a joke?”

But it wasn’t a joke. The only thing that had changed about the ceasefire deal that his administration had been pushing for since May last year was that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had finally agreed to it.

And the only thing that had changed for Netanyahu was that the man he sees as his friend and most important ally was about to return to office.

For Netanyahu, this seemed the right moment to present Trump with a gift — vindication of the new president’s boast that he would end the war as soon as he took office.

Trump even dispatched Steve Witkoff, his newly appointed envoy to the Middle East, to join Biden’s man, Brett McGurk, for the last 96 hours of talks in Doha, to ensure that the incoming US administration had its mark on the deal.

The appointment of Witkoff came as a surprise to many, as he does not have a diplomatic background. Witkoff does, however, have a reputation as a formidable dealmaker, which fits with Trump’s fondness for transactional foreign policy.

But quite what deal Witkoff might have offered Netanyahu on Trump’s behalf remains to be seen.

“The ceasefire in Gaza is something Trump has claimed credit for, which is unclear. But we shouldn’t think his arrival is good news,” said Kelly Petillo, MENA program manager for the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“We have no idea what Trump has in mind for day-after plans in Gaza. And we don’t know what Trump and his Middle East envoy have promised to Netanyahu in return for him accepting to move forward with the ceasefire.

“We don’t even know if the ceasefire will hold until the next, second phase. The ceasefire does not involve the release of all the hostages and Trump has declared he will ‘unleash hell’ if not all of them are released.”

Unlike Biden, said Ahron Bregman, a former Israeli soldier and senior teaching fellow in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, “Trump is not someone Netanyahu can easily ignore.

“Even before Trump assumed office, he pressed Netanyahu to strike a deal with Hamas. As a result, Netanyahu surprisingly showed a willingness to concede assets — such as the Philadelphi route — which he had previously deemed critical to Israeli security.”




US President-elect Donald Trump, US Vice President-elect JD Vance and his wife Usha Vance attend a service at St. John’s Church on Inauguration Day in Washington, US, Jan. 20, 2025. (Reuters) 

When the ceasefire deal was announced, Trump wasted no time taking to Truth Social to tell his 8.5 million followers: “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies.”

Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to the US, anticipates a gear change in US relations with the region.

“I expect greater involvement in the Middle East by the Trump administration,” said Rabinovich, professor emeritus of Middle Eastern history at Tel Aviv University.

“In the Arab-Israeli context (there will be a) continuation of the effort to end the war in Gaza and possibly to move on to a more ambitious effort to resolve the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

However, Trump’s natural affinity with Israel, expressed most keenly through the Abraham Accords, to which he is expected to return with renewed energy, does not bode well for the Palestinian cause. Neither do some of the appointments to Trump’s top team.

His appointment of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel indicates that any “resolution” of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict favored by the incoming US administration will favor Israel, at Palestine’s expense.

Huckabee, an evangelical Christian with deep, biblically inspired connections to Israel, a country he has visited more than 100 times since 1973, is an open opponent of Palestinian sovereignty.

He is an ardent supporter of settlements, stating during a 2017 visit to Israel that “there’s no such thing as a settlement — they’re communities, they’re neighborhoods, they’re cities. There’s no such thing as an occupation.” He has also said “there’s really no such thing as a Palestinian.”

Trump’s new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is another staunch ally of Israel who has called for a clampdown on pro-Palestinian protesters in the US and condemned “the poison” of the boycott, divestment, and sanctions movement. He has also said there should be no ceasefire in Gaza until Israel has destroyed “every element” of Hamas.

The nomination of pro-Israel Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN bodes ill for attempts to pursue Palestinian sovereignty through the UN General Assembly.

Last May, on one of many trips she has made to Israel, she addressed members of the Knesset, “in your eternal capital, the holy city of Jerusalem,” declaring herself “a lifelong admirer, supporter, and true friend of Israel and the Jewish people.”

In the wake of Trump’s scene-stealing intervention in the Gaza ceasefire deal, all eyes in the region will be on his wider agenda for the Middle East. At the top of that agenda is Iran. How that plays out could have serious repercussions for Tehran’s neighbors.

Around that, said Petillo, “there is huge unpredictability. Trump is highly unpredictable and likes to remain that way. But we also know that much of what he will do depends on who whispers in his ear at the right time before he is making a decision.

“There are different people in his administration that might push him to go either in the most destructive direction — for instance seeking other maximum pressure style policies to support Israel and address their security concerns vis-a-vis Iran — and others who want to end US involvement in the region and are in favor of deals.”




President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden welcome President-elect Donald Trump and Melania Trump on the North Portico of the White House in Washington, Jan. 20, 2025. (AP Photo)

But any chance that the Iran nuclear deal will be reinstated surely evaporated with Trump’s re-election. It was, after all, Trump who unilaterally withdrew America from the deal in 2018, instituting new sanctions. He has signalled his intention to return to a policy of “maximum pressure.”

“More widely on Israel-Palestine, Trump will likely pick up where he left off — the Abraham Accords, which he deems a success and which have largely held so far despite rifts caused by the war in Gaza,” said Petillo.

“The big prize of course is a Saudi deal — and I think this will impact whether he will do another round of maximum pressure on Iran as he said he would.”

Saudi Arabia has made clear that any move toward normalization of relations with Israel would be dependent on clear steps towards Palestinian sovereignty.

In September, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said the Kingdom “will not stop its tireless work towards the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and we affirm that the Kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without that.”

Shortly after, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud announced the formation of a global alliance to push for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Implementing the two-state solution, he said, was “the best solution to break the cycle of conflict and suffering, and enforce a new reality in which the entire region, including Israel, enjoys security and coexistence.”

But according to Petillo: “Trump’s arrival is not good news for the chances of a two-state solution. Trump and his new administration simply don’t care about Palestinian rights, annexation is likely to be used as a threat and settlements are likely to expand, and the whole issue risks becoming a big real-estate project, with huge consequences for Palestinian security, but I think also for that of ordinary Israelis.”

In November, Bader Mousa Al-Saif, an associate fellow on the MENA program at Chatham House and a historian at Georgetown University, wrote that Trump would find the Gulf region much changed since he last engaged with it.

Since then, “the Arab Gulf states have made strides in the intervening years by taking matters into their own hands — reconciling intra-Gulf discord, freezing the Yemen conflict, and making overtures to regional neighbours like Iran, Syria, and Turkiye.”

Moreover, he added, “the Saudis have banked on a clear precondition for normalization — the end of Israeli occupation and establishment of a Palestinian state.”

However, according to Ibrahim Al-Marashi, associate professor in the Department of History at California State University San Marcos, a different kind of deal could break the deadlock.

“Trump’s repudiation of the Iran nuclear deal served as the primary causal factor in intensifying tensions, escalating into direct violence,” he said. “This violence played out primarily on Iraqi soil, albeit with a brief period of clashes in Syria.

“Trump wants a nuclear deal on his terms that he can claim credit for. If he gets that and sanctions are lifted on Iran, then tensions might finally subside.”




US President-elect Donald Trump and his wife Melania Trump after attending a service at St. John’s Church on Inauguration Day in Washington, US Jan. 20, 2025. (Reuters) 

Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow on Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute, believes “the Trump administration will be unlikely to backtrack on, or jeopardize, the progress that has been made to weaken Iran’s status in the Middle East.

“The region is transforming in ways unimaginable 15 months ago, with new political futures possible in Lebanon and Syria,” he said. “The weakening of both Iran and Russia in the Middle East represents a success story, and Trump will want this dynamic to continue — and to take credit for it.”

And to be recognized for it, as a main plank of his legacy.

“Trump’s desire for a Nobel Prize might push him toward pursuing a peace deal or normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” said Bregman.

“Achieving this would require Netanyahu to make some progress toward a Palestinian state, a prerequisite for advancing Israeli-Saudi relations. This won’t be easy. But Netanyahu’s wariness of Trump might compel him to act.”


Police probe missing Briton case in Malaysia

Updated 10 sec ago
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Police probe missing Briton case in Malaysia

Johnson-Doyle was last seen on May 27 in the bustling Bangsar district
Police have asked for the public “not to speculate” about Johnson-Doyle’s disappearance

KUALA LUMPUR: The disappearance of a British man last week in Malaysia’s capital is being investigated from “all angles,” police said Tuesday.

A missing person’s report was filed, identifying the man as 25-year-old Jordan Johnson-Doyle, Kuala Lumpur police said.

Johnson-Doyle was last seen on May 27 in the bustling Bangsar district, known for its nightlife, trendy bars and cafes, according to local media reports.

“A detailed investigation, from all angles, is underway,” Brickfields district police chief Ku Mashariman Ku Mahmood told AFP.

“Those with any information are urged to contact their nearest police station,” Ku Mashariman added in a statement.

Johnson-Doyle’s mother Leanne Burnett, 44, told the Free Malaysia Today news website that her husband had traveled to Kuala Lumpur, adding “we are distraught and pray that he’s well somewhere.”

She said his family was “seeking the help of anyone who saw him at his last-known location to come forward and inform the police.”

Burnett said she was traveling to Malaysia with another son to help with the search.

Police have asked for the public “not to speculate” about Johnson-Doyle’s disappearance.

The British High Commission in Kuala Lumpur confirmed Tuesday that it would assist Johnson-Doyle’s family without naming them.

“We are supporting the family of a British man reported missing in Malaysia,” it said in a statement.

Local reports said Johnson-Doyle, a software engineer, was on a solo backpacking tour around Southeast Asia when he disappeared.

Modi’s soaring Indian aviation ambitions face many headwinds

Updated 1 min 40 sec ago
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Modi’s soaring Indian aviation ambitions face many headwinds

  • India’s rapid pace of aviation growth risks losing steam if plane shortages, infrastructure challenges and taxation issues are not addressed
  • Hostilities with neighbor Pakistan also causing Indian airlines to take large, expensive detours around Pakistani airspace, requiring more fuel

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s high-profile attendance at a global airlines conference this week underscores how much India is banking on a boom in aviation to support wider development goals, but headwinds to its ambitions are gathering force.

Undeterred by the uncertainty gripping the aviation sector globally due to trade tensions and shaky consumer confidence, India’s biggest airlines are plowing ahead with orders for new planes, following record deals two years ago.

However, the rapid pace of growth risks losing steam if plane shortages, infrastructure challenges and taxation issues are not addressed, industry officials warned at the International Air Transport Association’s annual meeting.

Hostilities with neighbor Pakistan are also causing Indian airlines to take large, expensive detours around Pakistani airspace, requiring more fuel and passenger care.

Carriers have asked the Indian government to waive some fees and provide tax exemptions, people familiar with the matter have told Reuters, but it is not clear if it will provide any help, despite its high-flying rhetoric.

New Delhi says it wants India to be a job-creating global aviation hub along the lines of Dubai, which currently handles much of India’s international traffic.

“In the coming years, the aviation sector is expected to be at the center of massive transformation and innovation, and India is ready to embrace these possibilities,” Modi told global aviation leaders on Monday.

But the transformation will require billions of dollars of investment in airports and industry supply chains, and a revamp of regulations, industry officials said.

The numbers look promising.

IATA forecasts passenger traffic in India will triple over the next 20 years and the country has set a target of increasing the number of airports to as many as 400 by 2047, up from 157 in 2024.

“We are fast emerging as a strategic connector country ... India is a natural connector of the skies and aviation as well,” India’s Civil Aviation minister Ram Mohan Naidu told global airline CEOs in New Delhi.

Already the world’s third-largest aviation market by seats after the US and China, there is significant potential for India to grow.

The world’s most populous nation, India accounts for around 17.8 percent of people but only 4.2 percent of global air passengers, according to IATA.

A record 174 million Indian domestic and international passengers flew in 2024, compared to 730 million in China, IATA data shows.

“The outlook is potentially a very positive one for both the Indian economy and air transport industry. However, such outcomes are not guaranteed,” IATA said in a report on the Indian market.

Industry executives and analysts said more work lies ahead in scaling aviation-related infrastructure, updating rules, lowering taxes and making life easier for airlines.

“Even the regulators will agree that they need to update their regulation, because there is a reason why India is not punching above its weight. In fact, it is punching very much below its weight,” Association of Asia Pacific Airlines Director General Subhas Menon said.

Dubai-based Emirates, for example, says capacity restrictions on foreign airlines need to be relaxed for the industry to reach its full growth potential.

“For every seat we offer, particularly in the peaks, we’ve got three to 10 people trying to get it,” Emirates President Tim Clark told reporters.

Among other problems, India lacks enough domestic maintenance, repair and overhaul facilities to care for its fleet, making it overly dependent on foreign shops at a time of stiff competition for repair slots, particularly for engines.

Global airlines have aircraft sitting on the ground because there aren’t enough facilities available for servicing them, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said.

“I think airframe maintenance is a huge opportunity for India because you require labor and you require skills. And that’s something that I know India is investing in,” Walsh said, in response to a Reuters question at a press conference.

Airline growth globally is being tempered by extended delays to deliveries of new, more fuel-efficient planes due to supply chain issues.

India’s largest airline IndiGo has been leasing aircraft to allow it to expand internationally while it waits for new planes. This week it partnered with Air France-KLM , Virgin Atlantic and Delta to extend the reach of IndiGo tickets using those airlines’ networks.


Moscow poses no threat to Britain, says Russia’s UK embassy

Updated 4 min 22 sec ago
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Moscow poses no threat to Britain, says Russia’s UK embassy

  • Russia’s embassy issued a statement on Tuesday criticizing what it described as “a fresh salvo of anti-Russian rhetoric“
  • “Russia poses no threat to the United Kingdom and its people“

LONDON: Russia’s embassy in London said on Tuesday that Moscow had no intention of attacking Britain, rejecting accusations by the British government of growing aggression and daily cyberattacks.

Britain said on Monday it would radically change its approach to defense to address new threats, including from Russia, after endorsing the findings of an independently-produced Strategic Defense Review.

After unveiling the defense overhaul on Monday, British Defense Secretary John Healey said Europe was facing war, growing Russian aggression, new nuclear risks and daily cyberattacks.

Russia’s embassy issued a statement on Tuesday criticizing what it described as “a fresh salvo of anti-Russian rhetoric.”


“Russia poses no threat to the United Kingdom and its people,” the statement said. “We harbor no aggressive intentions and have no plans to attack Britain. We are not interested in doing so, nor do we need to.”

Relations between Russia and Britain are at their lowest level since the Cold War. They deteriorated further after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Britain and other NATO members have provided large amounts of military aid and other support to Kyiv.

China’s embassy in London also criticized Britain’s defense review, saying in a statement on Tuesday that the document deliberately misrepresented Beijing’s defense policy to justify British military expansion.

The review had described China as “a sophisticated and persistent challenge,” citing its rapid military modernization, including an expanded nuclear arsenal, and saying Beijing was likely using espionage and cyberattacks, and stealing intellectual property.


French policeman to go on trial over 2023 killing of teen that sparked riots

Updated 31 min 7 sec ago
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French policeman to go on trial over 2023 killing of teen that sparked riots

  • The trial of the officer could take place in the second or third quarter of 2026
  • “This order for a trial is both disappointing and not surprising,” said the officer’s lawyer

PARIS: The French policeman who shot and killed a teenager at point-blank range in 2023 outside Paris, sparking days of riots, is to go on trial on a murder charge, a court and prosecutors said Tuesday.

The trial of the officer, who has been charged with the murder of Nahel M., 17, could take place in the second or third quarter of 2026, the court and prosecutor in the Paris suburb of Nanterre where the killing took place said in a joint statement.

The officer, identified as Florian M., was released from custody in November 2023 after five months in detention.

Mobile footage of him shooting Nahel inside a car during a traffic control on a busy street went viral. The anger sparked protests that degenerated into rioting and led to scenes of devastation nationwide.

The police initially maintained that Nahel had driven his car at the officer but this was
contradicted by the video, which showed two officers standing outside a stationary car, with one pointing a weapon at its driver.

“This order for a trial is both disappointing and not surprising,” said Laurent-Franck Lienard, the officer’s lawyer.

“The investigating judge would have had to be courageous to take a different position than that of the prosecution” which pushed for the trial, the lawyer told AFP, adding that he would lodge an appeal against the order.

“We maintain that the shooting was legitimate,” he said.

Frank Berton, the lawyer for Nahel’s mother, expressed his “satisfaction” over the move.

“We are just seeing the law being applied... Now all that remains is to convince the court,” he said.

The move to try the officer over the death of Nahel, who was of north African origin, comes against the background of new tensions in France over racism and security.

A man who had posted racist videos shot dead his Tunisian neighbor and badly wounded a Turkish man in the south of France at the weekend, and a Malian man was stabbed to death in a mosque in April.

Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, who is taking an increasingly hard line on immigration issues, has faced accusations of not taking a strong enough stance against such crimes and even fueling a racist climate.

But he said Monday that “every racist act is an anti-French act.”


Russia says no quick ‘breakthroughs’ in ‘complex’ Ukraine talks

Updated 03 June 2025
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Russia says no quick ‘breakthroughs’ in ‘complex’ Ukraine talks

  • “The settlement issue is extremely complex and involves a large number of nuances,” Peskov said
  • Zelensky on Tuesday accused Russia of “deliberately” targeting civilians in a rocket attack on the city of Sumy

MOSCOW: Russia on Tuesday said it was wrong to expect a quick breakthrough in Ukraine talks, a day after Moscow rejected Kyiv’s call for an unconditional ceasefire at negotiations in Istanbul.

The sides agreed on a large-scale swap of captured soldiers and exchanged their roadmaps to peace, or so-called “memorandums,” at the discussions, which lasted under two hours.

More than three years into Russia’s offensive — which has killed tens of thousands on both sides and forced millions from their homes in eastern Ukraine — the two sides appear as irreconcilable as ever.

“The settlement issue is extremely complex and involves a large number of nuances,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday.

“It would be wrong to expect immediate solutions and breakthroughs,” he added.

Moscow demanded Ukraine pull its troops out of four eastern and southern regions that Moscow claims to have annexed as a precondition to pausing its offensive, according to the document handed to the Ukrainians that was published by Russian state media.

Kyiv had pressed for a full and unconditional ceasefire. Russia instead offered a partial truce of two to three days in some areas of the frontline, its top negotiator said after the talks.

Peskov also dismissed the idea of a summit between the presidents of Russia, Ukraine and the United States.

“In the near future, it is unlikely,” Peskov told reporters when asked about the chances of the leaders meeting, adding that such a summit could only happen after Russian and Ukrainian negotiators reach an “agreement.”

The White House had said on Monday US President Donald Trump was “open” to the idea, which is also backed by Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky and Turkiye’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Zelensky on Tuesday accused Russia of “deliberately” targeting civilians in a rocket attack on the city of Sumy, some 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the Russian border, that killed three people.

Russian troops have accelerated their advance, seeking to establish what Putin called a “buffer zone” inside Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region.

Zelensky posted a video from the emergency services showing destroyed cars and the body of one victim lying on the road.

The attack “says everything one needs to know about Russia’s so-called ‘desire’ to end this war,” he added, calling for “decisive actions” from the United States and Europe to push Russia into a ceasefire.

“Every day, Russia gives new reasons for tougher sanctions and stronger support for our defense,” he said.

Three people were also killed in a rocket attack in the northeastern Kharkiv region.

Moscow’s army said it had captured the village of Andriivka in the Sumy region, located around five kilometers from the Russian border.

Zelensky said last week that Russia was amassing some 50,000 soldiers for an offensive on the region.

Meanwhile Ukraine’s SBU security service claimed it had hit a pillar of the Crimean bridge, linking the annexed peninsula to Russia, with an underwater explosive device.

The extent of the damage was unclear and cars were on Tuesday using the bridge following a temporary closure after the attack.

A delegation of top Ukrainian officials also landed in Washington for talks with US officials on defense and economic issues, including the possibility of new sanctions, Zelensky’s office said.

Trump, who said he could end the conflict swiftly when he returned to the White House in January, has repeatedly expressed anger at both Putin and Zelensky as the fighting drags through its fourth year with no end in sight.

But he has held off from imposing new economic penalties on Moscow.