Rwanda’s evolving stature ensures muted global pressure as M23 advances in eastern Congo

A resident walks past looted shops, with the name of the Rwandan president ‘Kagame’ written on a door, following clashes in Goma on January 30, 2025. (AFP)
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Updated 31 January 2025
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Rwanda’s evolving stature ensures muted global pressure as M23 advances in eastern Congo

  • Paul Kagame has claimed that M23 rebels in eastern Congo merely want to defend Tutsis from the same Hutu extremists who carried out the 1994 genocide
  • Jason Stearns: ‘They (the Rwandans) have leveraged two things very well, which is their international diplomacy and their military prowess’

When Rwanda-backed rebels seized control of eastern Congo’s strategic city of Goma this week, it prompted a flurry of declarations condemning Rwanda from the UN and western nations, including the United States, France and the UK
Yet, the international community has stopped short of putting financial pressure on Kigali to withdraw its support for the rebels as happened when they took Goma in 2012.
The contrast has to do with the country’s evolving stature both in Africa and the West, where officials have long admired fourth-term President Paul Kagame for his role in uplifting Rwanda in the aftermath of genocide, analysts and diplomats said. They point to Rwanda’s shrewd branding, efforts to make itself more indispensable militarily and economically and divided attention spans of countries preoccupied with wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
“So far there has been significantly less international pressure than there was in 2012 for various reasons, including the new administration in the White House, other ongoing international crises and Rwanda’s role in continental peacekeeping and security operations,” said Ben Shepherd, a fellow in Chatham House’s Africa Program.

Kagame’s efforts to transform his small east African nation into a political and economic juggernaut, they say, has made the international community more reluctant to pressure Rwanda.
That’s been true when Kagame has abolished term limits and waged a campaign of repression against his opponents at home. It’s been true as he’s backed rebels fighting Congolese forces across the country’s border. And it’s remained true despite the fact that Rwanda’s economy is still heavily reliant on foreign aid, including from the United States, the World Bank and the European Union.
The United States disbursed $180 million in foreign aid to Rwanda in 2023. The World Bank’s International Development Association provided nearly $221 million the same year. And in the years ahead, the European Union has pledged to invest over $900 million in Rwanda under the Global Gateway strategy, its response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

In 2012, that aid was a key source of leverage as the western powers pressured Rwanda to end its role in the fighting. Donor countries withheld aid and the World Bank threatened to. Only a few nations, including the UK and Germany, have implied Rwanda’s involvement could jeopardize the flow of aid.
But today, the international community has fewer means to influence Rwanda as M23 advances southward from Goma. The United States suspended military aid to Rwanda in 2012 in the months before it seized Goma but can’t make the same threats after suspending it again last year. And since taking office, President Donald Trump has since frozen the vast majority of foreign aid, stripping the United States of the means to use it to leverage any country in particular.

The Rwanda-backed M23 group is one of about 100 armed factions vying for a foothold in eastern Congo in one of Africa’s longest conflicts, displacing 4.5 million people and creating what the UN called “one of the most protracted, complex, serious humanitarian crises on Earth.”
A July 2024 report from a UN group of experts estimated at least 4,000 Rwandan troops were active across the Congolese border. More have been observed pouring into Congo this week.
Kagame has claimed that M23 rebels in eastern Congo merely want to defend Tutsis from the same Hutu extremists who carried out the genocide that killed some 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus without intervention from the international community.
That failure and the resulting guilt informed a generation of politicians’ thinking about Rwanda.
“Rwanda’s justifications and references to the genocide continue to play to the West’s perception of it,” said South Africa-based risk analyst Daniel Van Dalen. “There’s always been apprehension to take any decisive action against Rwanda politically or economically.”

But today, there are other factors at play.
Set on transforming the country into the “Singapore of Africa,” Kagame has modernized Rwanda’s infrastructure, raised life expectancy rates and lured companies like Volkswagen and leagues like the NBA to open up shop in-country. Donors and foreign correspondents often profess wonder at Kigali’s clean streets, upscale restaurants and women-majority parliament.
The transformation has won Rwanda admiration from throughout the world, including in Africa, where leaders see Rwanda’s trajectory as a model to draw lessons from.
“The history of genocide still plays a role, but Kagame has very cleverly set up relationships with western capitals and established himself as a beacon of stability and economic growth in the region,” said a European diplomat, who did not want to be named because he was not allowed to speak on the matter publicly. “Some capitals still don’t want to see the truth.”
Rwanda contributes more personnel to UN peacekeeping operations than all but two countries. It is a key supplier of troops deployed to Central African Republic, where the United States worries about growing Russian influence. The country has also agreed deals to deploy its army to fight extremists in northern Mozambique, where France’s Total Energies is developing an offshore gas project.
“They have leveraged two things very well, which is their international diplomacy and their military prowess,” said Jason Stearns, a political scientist and Congo expert at Canada’s Simon Fraser University. “They’ve just been very good at making themselves useful.”

A decade ago, Rwanda was primarily exporting agricultural products like coffee and tea. But it has since emerged as a key partner for western nations competing with China for access to natural resources in east Africa.
In addition to gold and tin, Rwanda is a top exporter of tantalum, a mineral used to manufacture semiconductors. While it does not publish data on the volumes of minerals it mines, last year the US State Department said Rwanda exported more minerals than it mined, citing a UN report. And just last month, Congo filed lawsuits against Apple’s subsidiaries in France and Belgium, accusing Rwanda of using minerals sourced in eastern Congo.
Yet still, the European Union has signed an agreement with Kigali, opening the door to importing critical minerals from Rwanda. The deal sparked outrage from activists who criticized the lack of safeguards regarding sourcing of the minerals, and accused Brussels of fueling the conflict in eastern Congo.
The EU pushed back, saying that the deal was in early stages and that it was “working out the practicalities” on tracing and reporting minerals from Rwanda.
But even if the West stepped up its response, it has less leverage than in 2012, analysts said. Kagame invested in relationships with non-Western partners, such as China and the United Arab Emirates, which is now the country’s top trade partner. Rwanda also deepened its ties with the African nations that took much more decisive action to defuse the crisis in 2012.
“We are waiting to see how South Africans and Angolans react,” Shepherd said. “There was diplomatic pressure in 2012, but it only changed things because it came alongside African forces deployed in the UN intervention brigade.”


UN Security Council urges Rwanda forces to leave DR Congo

Updated 3 sec ago
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UN Security Council urges Rwanda forces to leave DR Congo

  • M23 movement advances on several fronts in a troubled region rich in natural resources

NEW YORK: M23 fighters advanced on several fronts in DR Congo’s volatile east as the UN Security Council, for the first time, called on Rwanda to stop backing the armed group and halt the bloodshed.

The M23 movement, supported by some 4,000 Rwandan soldiers, according to UN experts, now controls large swaths of the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, a troubled region rich in natural resources.
Its rapid advance has sent thousands fleeing.
Fighters took control of the South Kivu provincial capital, Bukavu, last Sunday, weeks after capturing Goma, the capital of North Kivu and the main city in the country’s east.
Friday’s unanimously adopted UN Security Council resolution “strongly condemns the ongoing offensive and advances of the M23 in North Kivu and South Kivu with the support of the Rwanda Defense Forces.”
It also “calls on the Rwanda Defense Forces to cease support to the M23 and immediately withdraw from DRC territory without preconditions.”
The Security Council had previously called for an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire” by all parties, but on Friday, all countries, including the three African members, pointed the finger at Kigali.
Recent gains have given M23 control of Lake Kivu following its lightning offensive in the east. According to the UN, the latest fighting has led to an exodus of more than 50,000 Congolese to Burundi, Uganda, and other countries.
The EU on Friday summoned Rwanda’s ambassador to demand Kigali pull out troops from the country and stop backing the armed group.
In a call with Kenyan President William Ruto, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for an immediate ceasefire, saying there was “no military solution to the conflict,” according to a State Department spokesperson.
Since the fall of Bukavu, the Congolese armed forces have been retreating without offering significant resistance.
“Almost no Congolese soldiers are fighting,” an observer said Friday, adding that the “only ones still fighting are the Wazalendo” pro-Kinshasa militia.
The North Kivu city of Masisi and its surroundings “are the scene of almost daily clashes” between the M23 and Wazalendo, medical charity Doctors Without Borders said.
The M23 is now moving toward the town of Uvira near the Burundi border on the northwestern tip of Lake Tanganyika — the main exit route for fleeing Congolese soldiers.
A source in Uvira’s municipality said Friday the military commander had taken “measures to secure the population and their property, adding that “undisciplined elements had been arrested.”
Residents said that Uvira was engulfed in chaos, with hundreds of soldiers and their families crossing the town on foot to reach the port.
At least 423 inmates from Uvira prison have escaped, and armed men robbed the bishop.
On the northern front, which has been relatively stable since December, M23 fighters are just 14 km from Lubero, a strategic town. Some Congolese soldiers have fled Lubero, but others were seen looting shops, according to local sources.
“The Congolese soldiers we met along the way robbed us of our phones, money, and other belongings,” said Aline Nyota, a displaced person who left Lubero to go further north.
“If you hesitate, they shoot.”
The Congolese army spokesman in the region urged fleeing soldiers to return “to their authorities” and to “avoid looting, extortion and rape.”
Traders in central Lubero have removed their goods, and schools are closed. A relative calm returned on Thursday evening with the intervention of Ugandan troops deployed in the region as part of a joint operation with the Congolese army.
Analysts have questioned how the Ugandan army would react if it were to encounter M23 fighters.
UN experts accuse Kampala of maintaining relations with the M23 while seeking to protect its influence in the area.
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on Friday denied his troops intended to fight the M23.

 


Philippines welcomes removal from money laundering ‘grey list’

A customer counts Philippine peso after selling US dollars at a money changer in Manila on September 8, 2008. (AFP)
Updated 7 min 45 sec ago
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Philippines welcomes removal from money laundering ‘grey list’

  • Marcos last year also banned offshore gaming operators, known locally as POGOs, that were said to be used as fronts by organized crime groups for human trafficking, money laundering, online fraud, kidnappings and even murder

MANILA: The Philippines on Saturday praised its removal from a global financial “grey list” of countries under increased monitoring for money laundering and terrorism financing, a status that can hamper global financial transactions.
The Southeast Asia nation had been on the Financial Action Task Force list, which identifies countries “working with it to correct deficiencies in their financial systems,” since 2021.
“The (Financial Action Task Force) removed the Philippines from its increased monitoring following a successful on-site visit and updated its statements on ‘high-risk and other monitored jurisdictions’,” the Paris-based group said after a Friday vote at its annual plenary.

HIGHLIGHT

The move would provide relief for more than 2 million Filipinos who work overseas and send remittances home each year.

The FATF, an international organization that coordinates global efforts to crack down on money laundering and terrorism financing, includes representatives from nearly 40 countries including the United States, China and South Africa.
In a statement Saturday, the Anti-Money Laundering Council in Manila hailed the FATF decision as a “milestone” that would bring a litany of benefits.
“The Philippines’ exit from the FATF greylist is expected to facilitate faster and lower-cost cross-border transactions, reduce compliance barriers, and enhance financial transparency,” it said.
The move would also provide relief for more than two million Filipinos who work overseas and send remittances home each year, the council added.
It singled out President Ferdinand Marcos’ 2023 signing of an executive order targeting money laundering and “counter-terrorism financing” as having played a key role in the decision.
Marcos last year also banned offshore gaming operators, known locally as POGOs, that were said to be used as fronts by organized crime groups for human trafficking, money laundering, online fraud, kidnappings and even murder.
But rights groups have accused the government of filing “baseless” charges against civil society groups to improve its standing with the FATF.
“This move by FATF, we are afraid, will be taken as a stamp of approval by the government and will thus very likely embolden them to continue, even intensify, the harassment,” Human Rights Watch senior researcher Carlos Conde told AFP on Saturday.
“While we recognize the need to stamp out money laundering — and FATF did acknowledge the supposed improvements the Philippine government did in this regard — there clearly is a need for the government to adhere to international human rights standards as it pursues this campaign.”

 


Macron says knife attack in east France was “Islamist terrorism“

Updated 22 February 2025
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Macron says knife attack in east France was “Islamist terrorism“

  • A man attacked local police officers in the city of Mulhouse shouting “Allahu Akbar“
  • “It is without any doubt an act of Islamist terrorism,” Macron told reporters

PARIS: French President Emmanuel Macron said on Saturday a knife attack that killed one and injured three in eastern France on Saturday was “Islamist terrorism,” after France’s anti-terrorism prosecutor’s office confirmed it was investigating the case.
A man attacked local police officers in the city of Mulhouse shouting “Allahu Akbar” (“God is greatest“) on Saturday afternoon, the PNAT prosecutor’s office said in a statement.

A passer-by was killed trying to intervene, while three police officers were injured, the prosecutor’s office added.
“It is without any doubt an act of Islamist terrorism,” Macron told reporters on the sidelines of the annual French farm show, adding that the interior minister was on his way to Mulhouse.
The suspect has been arrested, the prosecutor’s office said.


France says convict freed in May shootout arrested in Romania

Updated 22 February 2025
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France says convict freed in May shootout arrested in Romania

  • France tasked more than 300 investigators with finding Amra, and requested an Interpol red notice hoping for foreign assistance
  • “After a manhunt lasting several months, Amra has been arrested, finally!” Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said

PARIS: A French convict, on the run since being freed last May in an ambush that left two prison officers dead, has been arrested in Romania, Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau said Saturday.
Mohamed Amra, accused of being a major drugs gangland figure, had vanished without a trace after an attack with military-grade assault weapons on a prison van carrying him in the northwestern Normandy region.
Three officers were wounded in the attack that was caught on CCTV and shocked France because of its extraordinary violence.
France tasked more than 300 investigators with finding Amra, and requested an Interpol red notice hoping for foreign assistance.
Amra, reportedly known as “La Mouche” (The Fly), has a long history of convictions for violent crimes that started when he was only 15.
He was also suspected of ordering hits while in prison.
At the time of his escape, Amra was facing two fresh charges, one for attempted murder and another for participation in a gangland killing in the southern city of Marseille on the French Riviera, a hub for drug trafficking and gang violence.
But despite the government labelling him “public enemy number one,” and the deployment of massive means, Amra was not captured as quickly as the authorities had hoped.
On Saturday, the government reacted with relief that the chase was over.
“After a manhunt lasting several months, Amra has been arrested, finally!” Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said on X.
President Emmanuel Macron hailed Amra’s capture as “a formidable success.”


Londoners march in support of Ukraine to mark three years of war

Updated 22 February 2025
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Londoners march in support of Ukraine to mark three years of war

  • Protesters started at a statue of St. Volodymyr in west London and marched toward the Russian embassy, waving Ukrainian flags and signs of support
  • At the rally, one sign read “Ukraine defends peace for the entire Europe“

LONDON: Hundreds gathered in London on Saturday to march in support of Ukraine, ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion on Monday and amid increasing tensions between Washington and Kyiv.
Protesters started at a statue of St. Volodymyr, a national saint of Ukraine, in west London and marched toward the Russian embassy, waving Ukrainian flags and signs of support.
The three-year long war was sparked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Britain has been a key backer of Ukraine since, sanctioning Moscow, providing financial and military support to Kyiv and opening its door to over 250,000 Ukrainian refugees.
At the rally, one sign read “Ukraine defends peace for the entire Europe,” while another said “If Ukraine falls, war will come to your house.”
“I’m not Ukrainian but I recognize the great danger they are in,” 68-year-old Briton Martin Vincent told AFP.
“We cannot abandon them it’s a duty for the UK to stand up with Ukraine,” the protester added.
Among the crowd were some Ukrainians, including Nataliya, a university student who did not want to share her last name for security reasons.
“I feel so homesick and so vulnerable right now. I don’t know If I’ll be able to come back to my country,” said Nataliya, wearing a floral crown in the yellow and blue of the Ukrainian flag.
“What’s next? Uncertainty and uncertainty,” she added.
Stella Robinson, 27, was “afraid of what might happen next” as well. “This is not only Ukraine, this is Europe.”
“We can’t turn a blind eye on the war just because Trump wants peace,” added Robinson, referring to recent diplomatic talks between the US and Russia on the future of the war that have sidelined Kyiv and its European backers.
“But what kind of a peace? Frankly, it’s terrifying,” added the law student.
British public support for Ukraine is strong, with 67 percent saying they both want Ukraine to win the war and care a “great deal or fair amount” that it does so, according to a YouGov poll from last week.
And eight in ten Britons said it is “unacceptable” for Ukraine not to be included in negotiations on the conflict, per the poll.
Thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been killed since the start of the war, although the exact toll is unclear.