5 years after Britain left the EU, the full impact of Brexit is still emerging

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has promised to “reset” relations with the EU after years of acrimony. But rejoining the bloc remains a distant prospect. (AP)
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Updated 31 January 2025
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5 years after Britain left the EU, the full impact of Brexit is still emerging

  • People and businesses are still wrestling with the economic, social and cultural aftershocks of a decision that divided the country
  • British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has promised to “reset” relations with the EU after years of acrimony

LONDON: Five years ago Friday, two crowds of people gathered near Britain’s Parliament — some with Union Jacks and cheers, others European Union flags and tears.
On Jan. 31, 2020 at 11 p.m. London time – midnight at EU headquarters in Brussels — the UK officially left the bloc after almost five decades of membership that had brought free movement and free trade between Britain and 27 other European countries.
For Brexit supporters, the UK was now a sovereign nation in charge of its own destiny. For opponents, it was an isolated and diminished country.
It was, inarguably, a divided nation that had taken a leap into the dark. Five years on, people and businesses are still wrestling with the economic, social and cultural aftershocks.
“The impact has been really quite profound,” said political scientist Anand Menon, who heads the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe. “It’s changed our economy.
“And our politics has been changed quite fundamentally as well,” he added. “We’ve seen a new division around Brexit becoming part of electoral politics.”
A decision that split the nation
An island nation with a robust sense of its historical importance, Britain had long been an uneasy member of the EU when it held a referendum in June 2016 on whether to remain or leave. Decades of deindustrialization, followed by years of public spending cuts and high immigration, made fertile ground for the argument that Brexit would let the UK “take back control” of its borders, laws and economy.
Yet the result — 52 percent to 48 percent in favor of leaving — came as a shock to many. Neither the Conservative government, which campaigned to stay in the EU, nor pro-Brexit campaigners had planned for the messy details of the split.
The referendum was followed by years of wrangling over divorce terms between a wounded EU and a fractious UK that caused gridlock in Parliament and ultimately defeated Prime Minister Theresa May. She resigned in 2019 and was replaced by Boris Johnson, who vowed to “get Brexit done.”
It wasn’t so simple.
A blow to the British economy
The UK left without agreement on its future economic relationship with the EU, which accounted for half the country’s trade. The political departure was followed by 11 months of testy negotiations on divorce terms, culminating in agreement on Christmas Eve in 2020.
The bare-bones trade deal saw the UK leave the bloc’s single market and customs union. It meant goods could move without tariffs or quotas, but brought new red tape, costs and delays for trading businesses.
“It has cost us money. We are definitely slower and it’s more expensive. But we’ve survived,” said Lars Andersen, whose London-based company, My Nametags, ships brightly colored labels for kids’ clothes and school supplies to more than 150 countries.
To keep trading with the EU, Andersen has had to set up a base in Ireland, through which all orders destined for EU countries must pass before being sent on. He says the hassle has been worth it, but some other small businesses he knows have stopped trading with the EU or moved manufacturing out of the UK
Julianne Ponan, founder and CEO of allergen-free food producer Creative Nature, had a growing export business to EU countries that was devastated by Brexit. Since then she has successfully turned to markets in the Middle East and Australia, something she says has been a positive outcome of leaving the EU.
Having mastered the new red tape, she is now gradually building up business with Europe again.
“But we’ve lost four years of growth there,” she said. “And that’s the sad part. We would be a lot further ahead in our journey if Brexit hadn’t happened.”
The government’s Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that UK exports and imports will both be around 15 percent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU, and economic productivity 4 percent less than it otherwise would have been.
Brexit supporters argue that short-term pain will be offset by Britain’s new freedom to strike trade deals around the world. Since Brexit. the UK has signed trade agreements with countries including Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
But David Henig, a trade expert at the European Center for International Political Economy, said they have not offset the hit to trade with Britain’s nearest neighbors.
“The big players aren’t so much affected,” Henig said. “We still have Airbus, we still have Scotch whisky. We still do defense, big pharmaceuticals. But the mid-size players are really struggling to keep their exporting position. And nobody new is coming in to set up.”
A lesson in unintended consequences
In some ways, Brexit has not played out as either supporters or opponents anticipated. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine piled on more economic disruption, and made it harder to discern the impact of Britain’s EU exit on the economy.
In one key area, immigration, Brexit’s impact has been the opposite of what many predicted. A desire to reduce immigration was a major reason many people voted to leave the EU, yet immigration today is far higher than before Brexit because the number of visas granted for workers from around the world has soared.
Meanwhile, the rise of protectionist political leaders, especially newly returned US President Donald Trump, has raised the stakes for Britain, now caught between its near neighbors in Europe and its trans-Atlantic “special relationship” with the US
“The world is a far less forgiving place now than it was in 2016 when we voted to leave,” Menon said.
Can Britain and the EU be friends again?
Polls suggest UK public opinion has soured on Brexit, with a majority of people now thinking it was a mistake. But rejoining seems a distant prospect. With memories of arguments and division still raw, few people want to go through all that again.
Labour Party Prime Minister Keir Starmer, elected in July 2024, has promised to “reset” relations with the EU, but has ruled out rejoining the customs union or single market. He’s aiming for relatively modest changes such as a making it easier for artists to tour and for professionals to have their qualifications recognized, as well as on closer cooperation on law enforcement and security.
EU leaders have welcomed the change of tone from Britain, but have problems of their own amid growing populism across the continent. The UK is no longer a top priority.
“I completely understand, it’s difficult to get back together after quite a harsh divorce,” said Andersen, who nonetheless hopes Britain and the EU will draw closer with time. “I suspect it will happen, but it will happen slowly and subtly without politicians particularly shouting about it.”


Anger as German conservatives question NGO funding

Updated 5 sec ago
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Anger as German conservatives question NGO funding

The hundreds of questions demanded more clarity on the funding of campaign groups such as “Grannies Against the Right,” Greenpeace and other organizations
The questions were grouped under the heading “political neutrality of state-funded organizations“

BERLIN: Left-wing parties in the German parliament reacted with consternation on Wednesday after the conservatives, fresh from their election win, demanded more scrutiny of a list of government-funded projects.
The CDU/CSU alliance of Friedrich Merz, which won Sunday’s election with 28.5 percent of the vote, submitted a set of written questions to the outgoing government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday.
The hundreds of questions demanded more clarity on the funding of campaign groups such as Omas Gegen Rechts (“Grannies Against the Right“), Greenpeace and other environmental organizations, and a wide range of other NGOs.
The questions were grouped under the heading “political neutrality of state-funded organizations.”
The party said it had tabled them in response to recent “protests against the CDU in Germany, some of which were organized or supported by non-profit or state-funded organizations.”
Thousands of people took part in demonstrations after the CDU in January controversially accepted the support of the far-right AfD to push through a parliamentary vote on migration.
Lars Klingbeil of Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) on Wednesday accused the CDU/CSU of targeting “precisely those organizations that protect our democracy, which it is denigrating and calling into question.”
Following the election on Sunday, Merz has reached out to the center-left SPD with hopes of forming a coalition.
But Klingbeil, newly elected as head of the SPD parliamentary group, accused the conservatives of “foul play” and urged them to “quickly reflect” on whether they wanted to pursue the questions.
Other parties have also reacted angrily to the move, with the far-left Die Linke calling it “an unprecedented attack on democratic civil society.”
“This is reminiscent of authoritarian states and, given that the CDU/CSU will in all likelihood lead the next federal government, is extremely worrying,” Die Linke’s Clara Buenger said.
Sergey Lagodinsky, a member of the European Parliament for the Greens, said it was a “very bad omen for the next four years” and “almost Trump-like.”
US President Donald Trump has enlisted tech billionaire Elon Musk to lead federal cost-cutting efforts under the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Musk has spearheaded program and personnel cuts across a wide range of federal agencies and departments, including the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
Matthias Middelberg, a spokesman for the CDU, said public funding “must not be used for party political purposes.”
No organization should be “eligible for support if it is used to influence political decision-making and public opinion in line with the organization’s own views,” he said.

Romania prosecutors question far-right politician after annulled vote

Updated 5 min 48 sec ago
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Romania prosecutors question far-right politician after annulled vote

  • The country’s constitutional court in December annulled the elections following allegations of Russian interference
  • Georgescu has denied any wrongdoing and called the annulment a “formalized coup d’etat“

BUCHAREST: Romanian prosecutors were questioning Wednesday far-right politician Calin Georgescu, who topped the first round of last year’s presidential elections but later saw the results annulled in a shock move that has shaken the country.
The country’s constitutional court in December annulled the elections following allegations of Russian interference and claims of “massive” social media promotion of Georgescu, who shot to prominence virtually overnight.
Georgescu has denied any wrongdoing and called the annulment a “formalized coup d’etat.”
Television footage showed Georgescu entering the general prosecutor’s office flanked by police.
A judicial source told AFP he would be questioned, but declined to comment further.
Earlier Wednesday, authorities searched dozens of premises around the country, according to a statement by the prosecutor’s office.
Prosecutors said the raids were part of a probe into alleged offenses including “establishing an organization with a fascist, racist or xenophobic character” and “false statements regarding the sources of financing of the electoral campaign,” they said.
The statement did not mention Georgescu by name.
“I, on behalf of my voters, but also of those who, although they have other political options, want a democratic and free Romania — am fighting this security system that wants us in slavery,” Georgescu posted on Facebook.
His team said Georgescu was stopped by police in traffic and told to come in for questioning.
Outside the prosecutor’s office, supporters of Georgescu gathered, some with flags and chanting “traitors” and “liberty.”
The decision by the EU and NATO member to annul the vote — rare in the European Union — plunged the eastern European country into crisis, with tens of thousands protesting it.
A new first round of presidential elections will take place on May 4, with a second on May 18 if no first-round candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote.


Ukraine’s Zelensky says framework economic deal with US is ready but security guarantees undecided

Updated 20 min 20 sec ago
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Ukraine’s Zelensky says framework economic deal with US is ready but security guarantees undecided

  • The framework deal is a first step toward a comprehensive agreement that will be subject to ratification by Ukraine’s parliament, Zelensky said
  • Ukraine needs to know where the United States stands on its continued military support

KYIV: A framework economic deal with the United States is ready, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday, but security guarantees that Kyiv views as vital remain to be decided and a full agreement could hinge on talks in Washington as early as Friday.
The framework deal is a first step toward a comprehensive agreement that will be subject to ratification by Ukraine’s parliament, Zelensky said during a news conference in Kyiv.
Ukraine needs to know where the United States stands on its continued military support, Zelensky said.
He said expects to have a wide-ranging substantive conversation with US President Donald Trump during a visit to Washington.
“I want to coordinate with the US,” Zelensky said.
Zelensky said that the main topics that he wants to discuss with Trump are whether the US plans to halt military aid and, if so, whether Ukraine would be able to purchase weapons directly from the US
He also wants to know whether Ukraine can use frozen Russian assets for weapons investments and whether Washington plans to lift sanctions on Russia.
Earlier, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed that Ukraine and the United States have reached preliminary agreement on a broad economic deal that includes US access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals amid its war with Russia.
After days of negotiations, Ukraine and the US will sign the preliminary agreement, but with further details of a full agreement — including US security guarantees that Kyiv officials view as vital — still to be worked out, Shmyhal said on Ukrainian public television.
Since returning to office last month, Trump let Ukraine know that he wanted something in return for tens of billions of dollars in US help to fend off the full-scale invasion that Russia launched just over three years ago on Feb. 24, 2022.
Trump has abruptly ditched some previous Washington policies. He scrapped efforts to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin and cast doubt on US support for its European allies. That has brought momentous geopolitical shifts that could reset the war’s path this year.
The preliminary agreement sets out the terms and conditions of an investment fund for the rebuilding of Ukraine, Shmyhal said.


A court in Bosnia sentences separatist Bosnian Serb President Milorad Dodik to 1 year in prison

Updated 26 February 2025
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A court in Bosnia sentences separatist Bosnian Serb President Milorad Dodik to 1 year in prison

  • The landmark ruling by the court in Sarajevo came after a yearlong trial against Dodik
  • The leader and his lawyers weren’t at the court during the sentencing

SARAJEVO: A court in Bosnia on Wednesday sentenced Milorad Dodik, the pro-Russia Bosnian Serb president, to one year in prison and banned him from engaging in politics for six years over his separatist actions.
The landmark ruling by the court in Sarajevo came after a yearlong trial against Dodik on charges that he disobeyed the top international envoy overseeing peace in the Balkan country.
The leader and his lawyers weren’t at the court during the sentencing. Dodik has said that he would disobey any conviction and threatened “radical measures” in response, including eventual secession of the Serb-run entity in Bosnia called Republika Srpska from the rest of the country.
Dodik has repeatedly called for the separation of the Serb-run half of Bosnia to join it with neighboring Serbia, which prompted the United States and the United Kingdom to impose sanctions against him and his close allies. Dodik is also accused of corruption and pro-Russia policies.
Dodik’s separatist threats stoked fears in Bosnia, where a 1992-95 war left 100,000 people killed and displaced millions. The US-sponsored Dayton Accords ended the war nearly three decades ago and created two regions, Republika Srpska and the Bosniak-Croat Federation.
The two regions were given wide autonomy, but kept some joint institutions, including the army, top judiciary and tax administration. Bosnia also has a rotating three-member presidency made up of Bosniak, Serb and Croat members.
Dodik was in the Bosnian Serb administrative capital Banja Luka, where thousands gathered Wednesday in his support.
“They say I am guilty, but now people here will say why I am not guilty,” Dodik told the crowd shortly after the verdict was announced. “There is no reason to worry. I have learned to deal with tougher situations. It is important that you are here.”
In neighboring Serbia, pro-government media reported that populist President Aleksandar Vucic called an urgent session of the national security council there.
Dodik is unlikely to be sent to prison, because he enjoys the full support of Vucic, who can provide shelter to him in Belgrade. Dodik is also expected to appeal the conviction.
Dodik has repeatedly clashed with top international envoy Christian Schmidt and declared his decisions illegal in Republika Srpska. The Dayton peace agreement envisages that the high representative can impose decisions and change laws in the country.
The war in Bosnia erupted when the country’s Serbs rebelled against the country’s independence from the former Yugoslavia and moved to form a mini-state of their own with the aim of uniting it with neighboring Serbia.


Indonesia launches campaign to raise $200 million aid for Palestine

Updated 26 February 2025
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Indonesia launches campaign to raise $200 million aid for Palestine

  • Indonesian people, government see Palestinian statehood as mandated by their own constitution
  • Fundraising campaign organized by NGOs with the support of Indonesia’s foreign affairs ministry

JAKARTA: Indonesia on Wednesday launched a campaign to raise $200 million in humanitarian aid for Palestinians, as Jakarta moves to support the rebuilding of Gaza. 

A staunch supporter of Palestine, the Indonesian government and people see Palestinian statehood as being mandated by their own constitution, which calls for the abolition of colonialism. 

The campaign, “Indonesia for Palestine: Solidarity, Real Action and New Hope,” is being organized by the Indonesian Ulema Council, Indonesia’s National Alms Agency and other NGOs with the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 

“We are starting this campaign with the initial target of $200 million,” Deputy Foreign Minister Anis Matta said at the campaign launch in Jakarta. 

“This is not just a mandate from our constitution and a religious obligation, but also a humanitarian emergency … We want to turn this campaign into a movement of humanitarian diplomacy.” 

The campaign comprises various programs, he said. 

“There’s an ongoing emergency program during the ceasefire period, but there will also be a program dedicated to the reconstruction of Gaza; we want to offer our assistance in the rebuilding of Gaza.” 

Since Israel launched its war on Gaza in October 2023, its military has killed more than 48,300 people and injured more than 111,000. The real death toll is feared to be much higher, with estimates published by the medical journal The Lancet indicating that as of July, it could be more than 186,000.

The Indonesian government has sent several consignments of humanitarian assistance for Gaza since 2023, while various NGOs in the country have also raised funds and coordinated support — including sending medical volunteers — for Gaza. 

Last year, Jakarta doubled its annual contribution to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees to $1.2 million, with the government pledging to contribute more. 

“This joint campaign is real evidence of Indonesia’s solidarity for Palestine,” said Abdul Kadir Jailani, director general for Asian, Pacific and African Affairs at the foreign affairs ministry. 

“We all have a responsibility to support our brothers and sisters in Palestine.”