5 years after Britain left the EU, the full impact of Brexit is still emerging

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has promised to “reset” relations with the EU after years of acrimony. But rejoining the bloc remains a distant prospect. (AP)
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Updated 31 January 2025
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5 years after Britain left the EU, the full impact of Brexit is still emerging

  • People and businesses are still wrestling with the economic, social and cultural aftershocks of a decision that divided the country
  • British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has promised to “reset” relations with the EU after years of acrimony

LONDON: Five years ago Friday, two crowds of people gathered near Britain’s Parliament — some with Union Jacks and cheers, others European Union flags and tears.
On Jan. 31, 2020 at 11 p.m. London time – midnight at EU headquarters in Brussels — the UK officially left the bloc after almost five decades of membership that had brought free movement and free trade between Britain and 27 other European countries.
For Brexit supporters, the UK was now a sovereign nation in charge of its own destiny. For opponents, it was an isolated and diminished country.
It was, inarguably, a divided nation that had taken a leap into the dark. Five years on, people and businesses are still wrestling with the economic, social and cultural aftershocks.
“The impact has been really quite profound,” said political scientist Anand Menon, who heads the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe. “It’s changed our economy.
“And our politics has been changed quite fundamentally as well,” he added. “We’ve seen a new division around Brexit becoming part of electoral politics.”
A decision that split the nation
An island nation with a robust sense of its historical importance, Britain had long been an uneasy member of the EU when it held a referendum in June 2016 on whether to remain or leave. Decades of deindustrialization, followed by years of public spending cuts and high immigration, made fertile ground for the argument that Brexit would let the UK “take back control” of its borders, laws and economy.
Yet the result — 52 percent to 48 percent in favor of leaving — came as a shock to many. Neither the Conservative government, which campaigned to stay in the EU, nor pro-Brexit campaigners had planned for the messy details of the split.
The referendum was followed by years of wrangling over divorce terms between a wounded EU and a fractious UK that caused gridlock in Parliament and ultimately defeated Prime Minister Theresa May. She resigned in 2019 and was replaced by Boris Johnson, who vowed to “get Brexit done.”
It wasn’t so simple.
A blow to the British economy
The UK left without agreement on its future economic relationship with the EU, which accounted for half the country’s trade. The political departure was followed by 11 months of testy negotiations on divorce terms, culminating in agreement on Christmas Eve in 2020.
The bare-bones trade deal saw the UK leave the bloc’s single market and customs union. It meant goods could move without tariffs or quotas, but brought new red tape, costs and delays for trading businesses.
“It has cost us money. We are definitely slower and it’s more expensive. But we’ve survived,” said Lars Andersen, whose London-based company, My Nametags, ships brightly colored labels for kids’ clothes and school supplies to more than 150 countries.
To keep trading with the EU, Andersen has had to set up a base in Ireland, through which all orders destined for EU countries must pass before being sent on. He says the hassle has been worth it, but some other small businesses he knows have stopped trading with the EU or moved manufacturing out of the UK
Julianne Ponan, founder and CEO of allergen-free food producer Creative Nature, had a growing export business to EU countries that was devastated by Brexit. Since then she has successfully turned to markets in the Middle East and Australia, something she says has been a positive outcome of leaving the EU.
Having mastered the new red tape, she is now gradually building up business with Europe again.
“But we’ve lost four years of growth there,” she said. “And that’s the sad part. We would be a lot further ahead in our journey if Brexit hadn’t happened.”
The government’s Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that UK exports and imports will both be around 15 percent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU, and economic productivity 4 percent less than it otherwise would have been.
Brexit supporters argue that short-term pain will be offset by Britain’s new freedom to strike trade deals around the world. Since Brexit. the UK has signed trade agreements with countries including Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
But David Henig, a trade expert at the European Center for International Political Economy, said they have not offset the hit to trade with Britain’s nearest neighbors.
“The big players aren’t so much affected,” Henig said. “We still have Airbus, we still have Scotch whisky. We still do defense, big pharmaceuticals. But the mid-size players are really struggling to keep their exporting position. And nobody new is coming in to set up.”
A lesson in unintended consequences
In some ways, Brexit has not played out as either supporters or opponents anticipated. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine piled on more economic disruption, and made it harder to discern the impact of Britain’s EU exit on the economy.
In one key area, immigration, Brexit’s impact has been the opposite of what many predicted. A desire to reduce immigration was a major reason many people voted to leave the EU, yet immigration today is far higher than before Brexit because the number of visas granted for workers from around the world has soared.
Meanwhile, the rise of protectionist political leaders, especially newly returned US President Donald Trump, has raised the stakes for Britain, now caught between its near neighbors in Europe and its trans-Atlantic “special relationship” with the US
“The world is a far less forgiving place now than it was in 2016 when we voted to leave,” Menon said.
Can Britain and the EU be friends again?
Polls suggest UK public opinion has soured on Brexit, with a majority of people now thinking it was a mistake. But rejoining seems a distant prospect. With memories of arguments and division still raw, few people want to go through all that again.
Labour Party Prime Minister Keir Starmer, elected in July 2024, has promised to “reset” relations with the EU, but has ruled out rejoining the customs union or single market. He’s aiming for relatively modest changes such as a making it easier for artists to tour and for professionals to have their qualifications recognized, as well as on closer cooperation on law enforcement and security.
EU leaders have welcomed the change of tone from Britain, but have problems of their own amid growing populism across the continent. The UK is no longer a top priority.
“I completely understand, it’s difficult to get back together after quite a harsh divorce,” said Andersen, who nonetheless hopes Britain and the EU will draw closer with time. “I suspect it will happen, but it will happen slowly and subtly without politicians particularly shouting about it.”


Malaysia yet to finalise MH370 search contract, as ship heads to new zone

Updated 7 sec ago
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Malaysia yet to finalise MH370 search contract, as ship heads to new zone

KUALA LUMPUR: A ship that will hunt for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 has deployed to its Indian Ocean search zone, according to Malaysia's transport minister and ship tracking data, raising hopes of solving one of aviation's greatest mysteries.
In December, Malaysia agreed to resume the search for the Boeing 777 that was carrying 227 passengers and 12 crew when it vanished en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014.
Malaysia has not yet signed off on the contract to search the seabed for wreckage, however, casting uncertainty over whether a search has begun.
Contacted by Reuters, U.S. exploration firm Ocean Infinity, which conducted the last search for the plane that ended in 2018, said it had no information to provide at this stage.
Malaysia had not yet signed the contract with Ocean Infinity, Transport Minister Anthony Loke said on Tuesday, but he welcomed the company's "proactiveness" to deploy its ships to that area to begin the search.
"Since Ocean Infinity already started to mobilise their ships, of course we welcome it because we have given the principle approval for the search to resume and just need to finalise the contract," Loke told a press conference.
The search would not be open-ended, however, he warned.
"It is not indefinite; there is a certain timeframe given for the contract. These are the details that we need to finalise before we sign," Loke added.
Refinitiv ship tracking data shows one of Ocean Infinity's ships, Armada 78 06, began tracking on Sunday a part of the Southern Indian Ocean, about 2,000 km (1,200 miles) off Australia's west coast.
Ocean Infinity's proposal to resume the search will see it expand the previous search area by 15,000 sq km (5,790 sq miles) in an effort lasting 18 months, with the period from January to April offering the best window, Malaysia said in December.
No precise location of the new search area was given at the time.
Ocean Infinity was "very confident that the current search area is more credible ... This is the area that they have missed in the past," Loke added.

DECADE-LONG HUNT
Malaysia engaged Ocean Infinity in 2018 to search in the southern Indian Ocean, but two attempts failed.
They followed an underwater search by Australia, China and Malaysia over an area of 120,000 sq km (46,332 sq mile) of the southern Indian Ocean, based on records of automatic connections between an Inmarsat satellite and the aircraft.
MH370's last transmission was about 40 minutes after it took off from Kuala Lumpur for the Chinese capital. The pilots signed off as the plane entered Vietnamese air space over the Gulf of Thailand and soon after its transponder was turned off.
Military radar showed the plane left its flight path to fly back over northern Malaysia and then out into the Andaman Sea before turning south, when all contact was lost.
Debris, some confirmed and some believed to be from the aircraft, has since washed up along the coast of Africa and on islands in the Indian Ocean.
Victims' relatives have demanded compensation from Malaysia Airlines, Boeing, aircraft engine maker Rolls-Royce and the Allianz insurance group, among others.
A 495-page report into the disappearance in 2018 said the Boeing 777's controls were probably deliberately manipulated to go off course, but investigators could not determine who was responsible and stopped short of offering a conclusion on what happened, saying that depended on finding the wreckage.
Investigators have said there was nothing suspicious in the background, financial affairs, training and mental health of both the captain and co-pilot.


Russia, US diplomats to meet in Istanbul on Thursday

Updated 12 min 28 sec ago
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Russia, US diplomats to meet in Istanbul on Thursday

  • US President Donald Trump has upended US foreign policy since coming to office last month
  • Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met on February 18 in the Saudi capital Riyadh

DOHA: Russian and US diplomats will meet in Istanbul on Thursday to discuss resolving issues related to their embassies, Russia’s foreign minister said, amid easing relations between the two countries.
US President Donald Trump has upended US foreign policy since coming to office last month, reaching out to President Vladimir Putin and initiating high-level talks with Moscow for the first time in over three years.
The latest meeting will focus on resolving diplomatic issues, after both countries expelled embassy staff from the other during former US President Joe Biden’s administration.
“Such a meeting will take place tomorrow in Istanbul. I think that its results will show how quickly and effectively we can move forward,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday on a visit to Qatar.
Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met on February 18 in the Saudi capital Riyadh, where they agreed to kickstart talks on the Ukraine war without Kyiv.
Both sides have since moved closer while sidelining Ukraine.
Last Wednesday, Trump branded his Ukrainian counterpart a “dictator” and called for him to “move fast” to end the war.
The United States sided with Russia twice Monday in votes at the United Nations, as it sought to avoid condemnation of Moscow’s invasion of its neighbor three years ago.


Russia and US to hold talks in Istanbul on embassy operations

Updated 46 min 12 sec ago
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Russia and US to hold talks in Istanbul on embassy operations

MOSCOW: Russian and US delegations will meet in Istanbul on Thursday to discuss how to restore their respective diplomatic missions, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
Moscow has had no ambassador in Washington since the previous envoy, Anatoly Antonov, left his post last October.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said high-level teams would work to restoring the countries’ diplomatic missions in Washington and Moscow as part of negotiations toward ending the conflict in Ukraine.


French police say killed man holding knives in Paris region

Updated 26 February 2025
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French police say killed man holding knives in Paris region

PARIS: French police said officers killed a man holding knives in each hand after he “threw himself” at them in the northeastern Paris suburbs on Wednesday.
At around 7:00 am (0600 GMT) police approached “a man sitting at a bus stop with a knife in each hand” in the town of Dugny, Paris police told AFP.
The man “threw himself at them, without saying a word,” they said.
One of the officers used an “electroshock weapon” without effect, they said.
Another officer then “used their weapon,” wounding the man in the chest.
“CPR was administered until the firemen arrived. Despite the care provided, the man died,” the police said.
Local police and the inspectorate responsible for investigating police misconduct, called the IGPN, have both opened a probe.
In 2023, 36 people died as a result of police action, the IGPN says.


Taiwan sends forces in response to China ‘live-fire’ drills off island

Updated 26 February 2025
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Taiwan sends forces in response to China ‘live-fire’ drills off island

TAIPEI: Taiwan sent forces on Wednesday in response to China’s “live-fire” drills off the self-ruled island, Taipei’s defense ministry said, condemning the exercises as dangerous.
China deployed 32 aircraft near Taiwan as part of a joint combat drill with Chinese warships and announced “live-fire exercises” in an area about 40 nautical miles (74 kilometers) off the island’s south, the ministry said in a statement.
Taiwan’s military responded by sending sea, air and land forces to “monitor, alert and respond appropriately,” the statement said.
China’s People’s Liberation Army “has blatantly violated international norms by unilaterally designating a drill zone 40 NM off the coast of Kaohsiung and Pingtung, claiming to conduct live-fire exercises without prior warning,” the ministry said.
“This move not only caused a high degree of danger to the safety of international flights and vessels at sea, but is also a blatant provocation to regional security and stability.”
Taiwan has naval and air bases in Kaohsiung and Pingtung.
China has ramped up the deployment of fighter jets and warships around Taiwan in recent years to press its claim of sovereignty over the island, which Taipei rejects.
Taiwan’s defense ministry said China’s move “is completely contrary to its repeated claims of ‘peaceful coexistence’ principles” and vowed to “continue our efforts in force buildup and readiness.”
Beijing’s foreign ministry declined to comment on Taiwan saying China has set up a drill zone for “shooting training.”
“This is not a question on foreign affairs,” spokesman Lin Jian told reporters.
China’s defense ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment from AFP.


Taipei’s defense ministry said China’s actions in the region, including live-fire drills off Australia and Vietnam, “prove that China is the only and biggest threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region.”
The drills also come after Taiwan seized a Chinese-crewed cargo ship on Tuesday suspected of severing a subsea telecoms cable serving Taiwan’s Penghu island group.
There is growing concern in Taiwan over the security of its cables after a Chinese-owned cargo ship was suspected of cutting one northeast of the island this year.
China’s Communist Party has never ruled democratic Taiwan but Beijing has threatened to use force to bring the island under its control.
Taiwan fears China could sever its communication links as part of an attempt to seize the island or to blockade it.
Taiwan is also a potential flashpoint for a war between China and the United States, which is the island’s most important backer and biggest arms supplier.
While the United States is legally bound to provide arms to Taiwan, Washington has long maintained “strategic ambiguity” when it comes to whether it would deploy its military to defend it from a Chinese attack.
Despite strong bipartisan support in the US Congress for Taiwan, there are fears that President Donald Trump might not consider the island worth defending if China attacked.
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te has already vowed to boost investment in the United States to reduce the trade imbalance and spend more on the island’s military, while his government is also considering increasing US natural gas imports.
Beijing regards Lai as a “separatist” and has staged several rounds of major military exercises since he came to power last May.
The dispute between Beijing and Taipei dates back to the civil war between Mao Zedong’s communist fighters and Chiang Kai-shek’s nationalist forces, which fled to Taiwan in 1949 following their defeat.