Five years after Britain left EU, full impact of Brexit is still emerging

Brexit supporters celebrate during a rally in London on Jan 31, 2020. (AP/File)
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Updated 31 January 2025
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Five years after Britain left EU, full impact of Brexit is still emerging

  • People and businesses still wrestling with the economic, social and cultural aftershocks of Brexit
  • British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has promised to “reset” relations with the EU after years of acrimony

LONDON: Five years ago Friday, two crowds of people gathered near Britain’s Parliament — some with Union Jacks and cheers, others European Union flags and tears.
On Jan. 31, 2020 at 11 p.m. London time – midnight at EU headquarters in Brussels — the UK officially left the bloc after almost five decades of membership that had brought free movement and free trade between Britain and 27 other European countries.
For Brexit supporters, the UK was now a sovereign nation in charge of its own destiny. For opponents, it was an isolated and diminished country.
It was, inarguably, a divided nation that had taken a leap into the dark. Five years on, people and businesses are still wrestling with the economic, social and cultural aftershocks.
“The impact has been really quite profound,” said political scientist Anand Menon, who heads the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe. “It’s changed our economy.
“And our politics has been changed quite fundamentally as well,” he added. “We’ve seen a new division around Brexit becoming part of electoral politics.”
A decision that split the nation
An island nation with a robust sense of its historical importance, Britain had long been an uneasy member of the EU when it held a referendum in June 2016 on whether to remain or leave. Decades of deindustrialization, followed by years of public spending cuts and high immigration, made fertile ground for the argument that Brexit would let the UK “take back control” of its borders, laws and economy.
Yet the result — 52 percent to 48 percent in favor of leaving — came as a shock to many. Neither the Conservative government, which campaigned to stay in the EU, nor pro-Brexit campaigners had planned for the messy details of the split.
The referendum was followed by years of wrangling over divorce terms between a wounded EU and a fractious UK that caused gridlock in Parliament and ultimately defeated Prime Minister Theresa May. She resigned in 2019 and was replaced by Boris Johnson, who vowed to “get Brexit done.”
It wasn’t so simple.
A blow to the British economy
The UK left without agreement on its future economic relationship with the EU, which accounted for half the country’s trade. The political departure was followed by 11 months of testy negotiations on divorce terms, culminating in agreement on Christmas Eve in 2020.
The bare-bones trade deal saw the UK leave the bloc’s single market and customs union. It meant goods could move without tariffs or quotas, but brought new red tape, costs and delays for trading businesses.
“It has cost us money. We are definitely slower and it’s more expensive. But we’ve survived,” said Lars Andersen, whose London-based company, My Nametags, ships brightly colored labels for kids’ clothes and school supplies to more than 150 countries.
To keep trading with the EU, Andersen has had to set up a base in Ireland, through which all orders destined for EU countries must pass before being sent on. He says the hassle has been worth it, but some other small businesses he knows have stopped trading with the EU or moved manufacturing out of the UK
Julianne Ponan, founder and CEO of allergen-free food producer Creative Nature, had a growing export business to EU countries that was devastated by Brexit. Since then she has successfully turned to markets in the Middle East and Australia, something she says has been a positive outcome of leaving the EU.
Having mastered the new red tape, she is now gradually building up business with Europe again.
“But we’ve lost four years of growth there,” she said. “And that’s the sad part. We would be a lot further ahead in our journey if Brexit hadn’t happened.”
The government’s Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that UK exports and imports will both be around 15 percent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU, and economic productivity 4 percent less than it otherwise would have been.
Brexit supporters argue that short-term pain will be offset by Britain’s new freedom to strike trade deals around the world. Since Brexit. the UK has signed trade agreements with countries including Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
But David Henig, a trade expert at the European Center for International Political Economy, said they have not offset the hit to trade with Britain’s nearest neighbors.
“The big players aren’t so much affected,” Henig said. “We still have Airbus, we still have Scotch whisky. We still do defense, big pharmaceuticals. But the mid-size players are really struggling to keep their exporting position. And nobody new is coming in to set up.”
A lesson in unintended consequences
In some ways, Brexit has not played out as either supporters or opponents anticipated. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine piled on more economic disruption, and made it harder to discern the impact of Britain’s EU exit on the economy.
In one key area, immigration, Brexit’s impact has been the opposite of what many predicted. A desire to reduce immigration was a major reason many people voted to leave the EU, yet immigration today is far higher than before Brexit because the number of visas granted for workers from around the world has soared.
Meanwhile, the rise of protectionist political leaders, especially newly returned US President Donald Trump, has raised the stakes for Britain, now caught between its near neighbors in Europe and its trans-Atlantic “special relationship” with the US
“The world is a far less forgiving place now than it was in 2016 when we voted to leave,” Menon said.
Can Britain and the EU be friends again?
Polls suggest UK public opinion has soured on Brexit, with a majority of people now thinking it was a mistake. But rejoining seems a distant prospect. With memories of arguments and division still raw, few people want to go through all that again.
Labour Party Prime Minister Keir Starmer, elected in July 2024, has promised to “reset” relations with the EU, but has ruled out rejoining the customs union or single market. He’s aiming for relatively modest changes such as a making it easier for artists to tour and for professionals to have their qualifications recognized, as well as on closer cooperation on law enforcement and security.
EU leaders have welcomed the change of tone from Britain, but have problems of their own amid growing populism across the continent. The UK is no longer a top priority.
“I completely understand, it’s difficult to get back together after quite a harsh divorce,” said Andersen, who nonetheless hopes Britain and the EU will draw closer with time. “I suspect it will happen, but it will happen slowly and subtly without politicians particularly shouting about it.”


Macron urges Algeria to help mend diplomatic ties

Updated 5 sec ago
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Macron urges Algeria to help mend diplomatic ties

  • Hard-line French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau has led the verbal attacks on Algeria in the media, fueling tensions between the countries

LISBON: French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday warned Algeria against playing “political games” with frayed diplomatic ties between the two countries, notably over immigration.
Relations between Paris and Algiers have been strained since Macron recognized Moroccan sovereignty of the disputed territory of Western Sahara in July last year.
But they have worsened after Algiers refused to accept the return of undocumented Algerian migrants from France.
Last weekend, one of them, a 37-year-old man, went on a stabbing rampage in the eastern city of Mulhouse, killing one person and wounding several others.
“We won’t make progress if there’s no work, we can’t talk to each other through the press, that’s ridiculous, it never works like that,” Macron told journalists during a visit to the Portuguese city of Porto.
“(Relations) shouldn’t be subject to political games,” he said.
He hoped “millions of French people born to Algerian parents” would not be “caught up in these debates.”
Hard-line French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau has led the verbal attacks on Algeria in the media, fueling tensions between the countries.
“Nothing can take precedence over the security of our compatriots,” Macron said, with emotions still high after last weekend’s attack in Mulhouse.
Agreements mandating the automatic return of nationals, signed between the two countries in 1994, “must be fully respected,” he added.
In recent months, France has arrested and deported several undocumented Algerians on suspicion of inciting violence, only for Algeria to send back one of those expelled.
France warned that it could restrict visas and, as a result, limit development aid.
Macron also voiced fears about the health of detained Franco Algerian writer Boualem Sansal, arrested in November last year and held in Algeria on national security charges.
In mid-December, his publishers, Gallimard, said he had been hospitalized.
Macron said that Sansal was being held in “arbitrary detention” and that resolving the matter would help restore confidence in diplomatic ties.
Sansal, 75, is known for his strong support of free speech and for opposing authoritarianism and Islamism.
Algeria’s government has previously criticized Macron for “blatant and unacceptable interference in an internal Algerian affair.”

 


EU top diplomat says ‘free world needs new leader’ after Trump-Zelensky clash

Updated 56 sec ago
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EU top diplomat says ‘free world needs new leader’ after Trump-Zelensky clash

“It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge,” Kallas wrote on social media

BRUSSELS: The European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas vowed to stand by Kyiv and questioned America’s leadership of the West Friday after an extraordinary clash between President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.
“Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge,” Kallas wrote on social media following the Oval Office confrontation. “Ukraine is Europe! We stand by Ukraine.”

Russian air defenses down 17 drones in six Russian regions

Updated 11 min 25 sec ago
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Russian air defenses down 17 drones in six Russian regions

  • Drones had been downed over three regions bordering Ukraine

MOSCOW: Russian air defenses downed 17 drones in six Russian regions over a period of nearly 2-1/2 hours late on Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
A ministry statement said drones had been downed over three regions bordering Ukraine — Bryansk, Belgorod and Voronezh — as well as in Smolensk region in western Russia, Tver region in central Russia and the Crimea peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014.
The incidents took place, the ministry said, between 8:05 and 10:30 p.m. Moscow time (1705-1930 GMT).


Alleged Chinese spies gave Philippine city and police cash and motorbikes

Updated 31 min 44 sec ago
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Alleged Chinese spies gave Philippine city and police cash and motorbikes

  • Wang, Wu and Cai made the donations to the city of Tarlac and to the police forces via the Chinese-backed groups in 2022 and continued to host officials at events through 2024. Reuters could not establish the reason for the donations

BANGKOK/MANILA: Four Chinese nationals accused by the Philippines of espionage led Chinese Communist Party-affiliated groups that made donations of cash to a Philippine city and vehicles to two police forces, according to photos, videos and online posts seen by Reuters.
Wang Yongyi, Wu Junren, Cai Shaohuang, and Chen Haitao were among five Chinese men detained by Philippine investigators in late January for allegedly gathering images and maps of Philippine naval forces near the South China Sea.
The five men had flown drones to spy on the Philippines’ navy, said the National Bureau of Investigation, adding that it had found photos and maps of sensitive sites and vessels on their phones. A senior NBI official told Reuters that the men had been charged with espionage, which carries a prison term of up to 20 years.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Three alleged spies met frequently with China’s defense attache.

• China denies espionage, claims Philipines using smear tactics.

Reuters could not identify a lawyer for the men or establish how they intend to plead. They have not spoken publicly about their arrests and questions directed to them via the Chinese Embassy in Manila went unanswered.
The four men were leaders of civic groups overseen by the Chinese Communist Party’s foreign influence network, according to Reuters’ review of articles and multimedia posted by the two groups and in Philippine media.
China’s Foreign Ministry, in a statement to Reuters, said China required its citizens to abide by local laws and that the civic groups “spontaneously formed and self-managed by the relevant Chinese citizens ... have no affiliation with the Chinese government.”
Wang, Wu and Cai made the donations to the city of Tarlac and to the police forces via the Chinese-backed groups in 2022 and continued to host officials at events through 2024. Reuters could not establish the reason for the donations.
Tarlac is home to major military bases, including one used by the Philippines and the US for live-fire exercises during annual military drills. Photos of bases in the area were not among the sites that NBI said were found on the men’s devices.
All five detained men also met China’s military attache in Manila, Senior Col. Li Jianzhong, at least once in the weeks before their arrest, Reuters found. Images and videos additionally show Wang, Wu, and Cai meeting the attache at least three times in 2024, including in May, when he opened the civic groups’ office in Manila.
Details of the donations made by the men, their interaction with Li, and their association with the CCP have not previously been reported.
The ties revealed by Reuters go beyond public statements made by Philippine investigators, who have said the men disguised themselves as “harmless” members of a legitimate organization. The NBI said the men were apprehended after “hot-pursuit” operations. It did not specify who the men were suspected of working for. But Beijing has denied the accusations of espionage, which state media has branded the “smear tactics” of a nation whose Chinese policy “is slipping into an impulsive and irrational abyss.”
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its Manila embassy did not respond to requests for comment.
The office of the mayor of Manila, whose police force took motorbikes from the men, said in response to Reuters’ questions that the “deed of donation and motorcycles... were found to be in order.”
The mayor of Tarlac city and the two police forces did not respond to requests for comment.
The Philippines does not have a specific foreign interference law, but is currently drafting one amid rising tensions with China. Government agencies are permitted to receive donations but contributions from foreign authorities must be approved by the president, according to guidelines. The practice of donations has been criticized by academics and the Transparency International non-profit, which has noted that Philippine leaders have sometimes used such donations to solicit bribes.

 


Trump shouts at Zelensky as he and Vance berate Ukrainian leader as ‘disrespectful’

Updated 28 February 2025
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Trump shouts at Zelensky as he and Vance berate Ukrainian leader as ‘disrespectful’

  • It began with Vance telling Zelensky, “Mr. President, with respect. I think it’s disrespectful for you to come to the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media”
  • Zelensky tried to object, prompting Trump to raise his voice and say, “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people”

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump shouted at Ukraine’s leader on Friday during an extraordinary meeting in the Oval Office, berating President Volodymyr Zelensky for “gambling with millions of lives” and suggesting his actions could trigger World War III.
The last 10 minutes of the nearly 45-minute engagement devolved into a tense back and forth between Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Zelensky — who had urged skepticism about Russia’s commitment to diplomacy, citing Moscow’s years of broken commitments on the global stage.
It began with Vance telling Zelensky, “Mr. President, with respect. I think it’s disrespectful for you to come to the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media.”
Zelensky tried to object, prompting Trump to raise his voice and say, “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people.”
“You’re gambling with World War III, and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country that’s backed you far more than a lot of people say they should have,” Trump said.
It was an astonishing display of open antagonism in the Oval Office, a setting better known for somber diplomacy. Trump laid bare his efforts to coerce Zelensky to agree to giving the US an interest in his country’s valuable minerals and to push him toward a diplomatic resolution to the war on the American leader’s terms.
Earlier in the meeting Trump said the US would continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine, but said he hoped that not too much aid would be forthcoming. “We’re not looking forward to sending a lot of arms,” Trump said. “We’re looking forward to getting the war finished so we can do other things.”
Trump suggested that Zelensky wasn’t in a position to be demanding concessions.
“You’re not in a good position. You don’t have the cards right now,” Trump said pointing his finger toward Zelensky. “With us you start having cards.”
He also accused Zelensky of being “disrespectful” to the US
“It’s going to be a very hard thing to do business like this,” Trump told Zelensky at one point, as the two leaders talked over each other about past international support for Ukraine.
“Again, just say thank you,” Vance interjected to Zelensky, blasting him for litigating “disagreements” in front of the press. Trump, though, suggested he was fine with the drama. “I think it’s good for the American people to see what’s going on,” he added.
“You’re not acting at all thankful,” Trump said, before adding, “This is going to be great television.”
The harsh words came at a pivotal and precarious moment for Ukraine. Zelensky had planned to try to convince the White House to provide some form of US backing for Ukraine’s security against any future Russian aggression.
Zelensky is still expected to sign a landmark economic agreement with the US aimed at financing the reconstruction of war-damaged Ukraine, a deal that would closely tie the two countries together for years to come.
The deal, which is seen as a step toward ending the three-year war, references the importance of Ukraine’s security. Earlier in the meeting, before tempers flared, Trump said the agreement would be signed soon in the East Room of the White House.
“We have something that is a very fair deal,” Trump said, adding, “It is a big commitment from the United States.”
He said the US wants to see the killing in the war stopped, adding that US money for Ukraine should be “put to different kinds of use like rebuilding.”
Earlier, Zelensky called Russian President Vladimir Putin a terrorist and told Trump that Ukraine and the world need “no compromises with a killer.”
“Even during the war there are rules,” he said.
As Ukrainian forces hold out against slow but steady advances by Russia’s larger and better-equipped army, leaders in Kyiv have pushed to ensure a potential US-brokered peace plan would include guarantees for the country’s future security.
Many Ukrainians fear that a hastily negotiated peace — especially one that makes too many concessions to Russian demands — would allow Moscow to rearm and consolidate its forces for a future invasion after current hostilities cease.
According to the preliminary economic agreement, seen by The Associated Press, the US and Ukraine will establish a co-owned, jointly managed investment fund to which Ukraine will contribute 50 percent of future revenues from natural resources, including minerals, hydrocarbons and other extractable materials.
Speaking about the rare earths agreement, Trump said the US is lacking in many such minerals while Ukraine has among the best on the planet. He said US interests plan to take those reserves and use them on everything from artificial intelligence operations to military weapons.
Asked about long-term security guarantee to guard against future Russian aggression, Trump says once the agreement is signed that a return to fighting was unlikely.
Trump, a Republican, has framed the emerging agreement as a chance for Kyiv to compensate the US for wartime aid sent under his predecessor, Democratic President Joe Biden.
But Zelensky has remained firm that specific assurances for Ukraine’s security must accompany any agreement giving US access to Ukraine’s resources.
This is Zelensky’s fifth White House visit, but his previous four came during the Biden administration. The Ukrainian president also was meeting with US senators during his time in Washington.
Fears that Trump could broker a peace deal with Russia that is unfavorable to Ukraine have been amplified by recent precedent-busting actions by his administration. Trump held a lengthy phone call with Putin, and US officials met with their Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia without inviting European or Ukrainian leaders — both dramatic breaks with previous US policy to isolate Putin over his invasion.
Trump later seemed to falsely blame Ukraine for starting the war, and called Zelensky a “dictator” for not holding elections after the end of his regular term last year, though Ukrainian law prohibits elections while martial law is in place.