RIYADH: Bahrain’s Islamic finance industry is likely to surpass $100 billion within the next three to five years, according to global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings.

This growth will be fueled by the need for diversification and funding, partly addressed through sukuk, as well as a favorable regulatory environment and ongoing mergers and acquisitions, according to a statement.

This aligns with Bahrain’s banking sector assets to GDP ratio, which was estimated at 516 percent in 2024, indicating a highly concentrated and competitive market that presents significant challenges for both Islamic and conventional banks. 

The debt capital market is primarily made up of government-issued sukuk and bonds, with limited participation from corporations and financial institutions.

This is also reflected in the fact that as of the first three months of 2025, Bahrain’s Islamic finance industry was valued at over $80 billion, with Islamic banking assets making up 78 percent, sukuk accounting for 19.2 percent, and the remaining 2.8 percent coming from Shariah-compliant investment funds and takaful firms.

The newly issued Fitch statement said: “Sukuk are substantial to Bahrain’s DCM (debt capital markets), comprising 32.5 percent of DCM outstanding (all currencies) as of end-1Q25 … In 2024, sukuk issuances grew by 36.2 percent yoy (year-over-year), with sovereign issuers representing about 90 percent of Bahrain’s sukuk issuances.”

It added: “Bahrain has notable access to the global DCM, with US dollar-denominated DCM comprising about 70 percent of the total, and dollar-denominated sukuk comprising nearly 90 percent of sukuk outstanding. The anticipated lower oil prices … upcoming government debt maturities and sizeable investors, including Bahraini and other GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) Islamic banks, could encourage sukuk issuance.”

The statement further indicated that the agency rates 80 percent of the country’s US dollar sukuk outstanding as of the end of the first quarter of 2025, with 94.6 percent in the “B” rating category and 5.4 percent in the “BB” rating category.

It further disclosed that most sukuk issuers carry negative outlooks, reflecting Fitch’s downgrade of Bahrain’s outlook from stable to negative in February. The country has maintained its payment record on sukuk and bonds, with only one issuer launching ESG sukuk and no ESG bonds issued from the country.

“Bahrain continues to host Islamic finance industry setting bodies like the AAOIFI (Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions) and IIFM (International Islamic Financial Market). The draft AAOIFI Shariah Standard 62 has had no impact on Bahraini Islamic banks’ or sukuk ratings so far. However, there is a lack of clarity around the standard’s final scope and implementation,” the statement said.

It added that in the first quarter of 2025, Bahraini Islamic banks’ domestic assets saw an annual rise of 7.5 percent, outpacing conventional banks’ 3.4 percent. 

They also increased their share of domestic banking assets to 41.4 percent in what was a 1 percentage point rise from the same quarter of 2024.

Fitch said this was partly due to Ahli United Bank’s conversion to an Islamic bank. 

Islamic banks’ foreign assets decreased by 7.6 percent, while conventional banks’ increased by 6 percent, reducing the former’s share of total industry assets to 25.4 percent from 26.1 percent in the first quarter of 2024.

The Central Bank of Bahrain has introduced a draft netting law that includes Islamic derivatives, sukuk, digital asset derivatives, and carbon credit derivatives under qualified financial contracts — aimed at strengthening market participants’ confidence.

In June 2024, the CBB also launched a Shariah-compliant commodity Murabaha facility to help Islamic banks better manage surplus liquidity.

Bahrain’s Islamic finance projections come as other countries in the region also report relatively strong performance in the sector.

Earlier this month, a report from Qatar-based Bait Al Mashura Finance Consultations showed that Qatar’s Islamic finance sector continued its upward trajectory in 2024, with total assets rising 4.1 percent year on year to 683 billion Qatari riyals ($187.5 billion). 

The analysis showed at the time that Islamic banks held the largest share, with 87.4 percent of total Islamic finance assets.

In April, S&P Global Ratings said in its outlook report that Saudi Arabia is poised to play a key role in propelling the growth of the global Islamic finance industry in 2025, underpinned by non-oil economic expansion and robust sukuk issuance, according to a new analysis.   

The Kingdom’s banking system growth, supported by Vision 2030 initiatives, is expected to contribute significantly to the expansion of Islamic banking assets next year, the S&P report said at the time.

WASHINGTON: The World Bank’s board has agreed to end a longstanding ban on funding nuclear energy projects in developing countries as part of a broader push to meet rising electricity needs, the bank’s president Ajay Banga said on Wednesday.
Banga outlined the bank’s revised energy strategy in an email to staff after what he called a constructive discussion with the board on Tuesday. He said the board was not yet in agreement on whether the bank should engage in funding the production of natural gas, and if so, under what circumstances.
The global development bank, which lends at low rates to help countries build everything from flood barriers to railroads, decided in 2013 to stop funding nuclear power projects. It announced in 2017 it would stop funding upstream oil and gas projects beginning in 2019, although it would still consider gas projects in the poorest countries.
The nuclear issue was agreed fairly easily by board members, but several countries, including Germany, France and Britain, did not fully support changing the bank’s approach to embrace upstream natural gas projects, sources familiar with the discussion said.
“While the issues are complex, we’ve made real progress toward a clear path forward on delivering electricity as a driver of development,” Banga said, adding that further discussion was required on the issue of upstream gas projects.
Banga has championed a shift in the bank’s energy policy since taking office in June 2023, arguing the bank should pursue an “all of the above” approach to help countries meet rising electricity needs and advance development goals.
In his memo, he noted that electricity demand was expected to more than double in developing countries by 2035, which would require more than doubling today’s annual investment of $280 billion in generation, grids and storage.
The Trump administration has been pushing hard for ending the ban on nuclear energy projects since taking office.
The US is the bank’s single largest shareholder — at 15.83 percent, followed by Japan with 7 percent and China with close to 6 percent — and the bank’s decision to broaden its approach to energy projects will likely please President Donald Trump, who withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement and its emission-reduction targets as one of his first acts in January.
Twenty-eight countries already use commercial nuclear power, with 10 more ready to start and another 10 potentially ready by 2030, according to the Energy for Growth Hub and Third Way.
Banga said the World Bank Group would work closely with the International Atomic Energy Agency to strengthen its ability to advise on nuclear non-proliferation safeguards, safety, security and regulatory frameworks.
The bank would support efforts to extend the life of existing nuclear reactors, along with grid upgrades. It would also work to accelerate the potential of small modular reactors.
ENERGY MIX
Trump administration officials and some development experts say developing countries should not be blocked from using inexpensive power to expand their economies while advanced economies like Germany continue to burn fossil fuels.
But climate activists worry that funding more nuclear and natural gas projects will divert funds away from urgently needed efforts by developing countries to adapt to climate change and benefit from abundant alternative energy sources such as solar.
“Net zero does not mean fossil fuel free. It means, still, that there will be 20 percent energy coming from fossil fuels,” said Mia Mottley, prime minister of Barbados. “We know natural gas is that clean fuel.”
Banga said the bank’s revised strategy would allow countries to determine the best energy mix, with some choosing solar, wind, geothermal or hydroelectric power, while others might opt for natural gas or, over time, nuclear.
He said the bank would continue to advise on and finance midstream and downstream natural gas projects when they represented the least-cost option, aligned with development plans, minimized risk and did not constrain renewables.
The bank would further study evolving technologies like carbon capture and ocean energy, Banga said, adding it aimed to simplify reviews and approvals.
Banga said the bank would continue advising on and financing the retirement of coal plants, supporting carbon capture for industry and power generation, but not for enhanced oil recovery, which can typically secure commercial financing.