Housing prices drive Saudi Arabia’s inflation to 2% in January: GASTAT
Housing rents rose 9.7% year on year, villa rental costs increased 7.7%
Furnishing and home equipment expenses witnessed a 2.4% year-on-year decline
Updated 16 February 2025
Nirmal Narayanan
RIYADH: Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia increased by 2 percent in January compared to the same month in 2024, primarily due to a rise in housing costs, official data showed.
According to a report by the General Authority for Statistics, housing rents in the Kingdom rose 9.7 percent year on year in January, while villa rental costs increased 7.7 percent.
The analysis said housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels saw a collective price increase of 8 percent.
Despite rising inflation rates globally, countries in the Middle East region have shown resilience against intensifying spending costs.
In December, the inflation rate in the UAE stood at 2.89 percent, 0.24 percent in Qatar, and 0.50 percent in Bahrain.
In October, a report by the World Bank projected that the Kingdom’s inflation level is expected to remain steady at 2.3 percent in 2025, lower than the Gulf Cooperation Council average.
“This increase (in housing prices) significantly impacted the continuation of the annual inflation rate for January 2025 due to the section’s weight, which amounted to 25.5 percent,” said GASTAT.
The release also detailed several additional shifts in consumer prices.
Food and beverage prices witnessed a moderate rise of 0.8 percent in January compared to the same month in the previous year. The rise in this section was attributed to an increase in the costs of vegetables, which rose by 5.6 percent.
Personal goods and services expenses increased by 3.3 percent, influenced by a 21.6 percent rise in jewelry prices.
Costs for restaurants and hotels rose by 0.8 percent year on year.
Furnishing and home equipment expenses witnessed a 2.4 percent year-on-year decline.
Prices for clothing and footwear decreased by 1.5 percent compared to the same month in the previous year, while transport expenses dropped by 1.9 percent.
Saudi Arabia’s consumer price remained stable compared to December, with the index recording a marginal increase of 0.3 percent.
According to GASTAT, housing rents increased by 0.3 percent compared to December, while food and beverage prices rose by 0.3 percent.
Transportation prices increased by 0.5 percent compared to December, while costs of clothing and footwear rose by 0.1 percent.
Prices for communication decreased by 0.3 percent month on month, while expenses for education declined by 0.1 percent.
The prices of restaurants and hotels showed no significant change compared to the previous month.
Wholesale Price Index
In a separate report, GASTAT said the Kigndom’s Wholesale Price Index rose by 0.9 percent in January compared to the same month of the previous year.
The authority revealed that the rise was attributed to a 1.5 percent increase in the prices of other transportable goods and a 4.6 percent boost in the costs of agriculture and fishery products.
Meanwhile, the prices of food products, beverages, tobacco, and textiles decreased by 0.3 percent year on year.
The prices of metal products, machinery, and equipment also declined by 0.2 percent compared to January last year.
In contrast to December, Saudi Arabia’s wholesale price index increased by 1.7 percent.
GASTAT said this rise was due to a 4.1 percent price boost in other transportable goods, excluding mineral products.
The cost of metal goods, machinery, and equipment decreased by 0.2 percent month on month, while the price of ores and minerals declined by 0.1 percent.
Agricultural and fishery products stabilized, and no relative change was recorded in January compared to December.
Fitch affirms Abu Dhabi at ‘AA’ with stable outlook as fiscal strength, surpluses endure
Updated 4 sec ago
Nadin Hassan
RIYADH: Abu Dhabi’s long-term foreign-currency rating has been affirmed at “AA” with a stable outlook by Fitch, supported by the emirate’s robust fiscal surpluses, vast sovereign assets, and low debt levels.
The US-based rating agency cited Abu Dhabi’s strong balance sheet, supported by large sovereign assets and steady budget surpluses, but noted constraints such as hydrocarbon reliance, a still-developing policy framework, and weaker governance compared to peers.
This follows S&P Global’s recent assignment of a “AA/A‑1+” with a stable outlook for its foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to the UAE, citing the country’s strong fiscal and external positions. The agency also noted that the UAE’s sizable asset cushion would help shield it from oil price volatility and regional geopolitical tensions.
Despite these structural limitations, Abu Dhabi’s fiscal position remains one of the strongest among Fitch-rated sovereigns. At the end of 2024, government debt stood at 17.4 percent of gross domestic product, well below the peer median of 48.8 percent, and is expected to rise only marginally to 18.2 percent by 2026 due to local currency issuance aimed at supporting domestic debt market development.
In its latest report, Fitch stated: “We project a budget surplus of 7.0 percent of GDP in 2025 (3.1 percent excluding investment income) based on Fitch’s oil price (Brent USD65/b) and production (3.2m b/d) forecasts, and some spending under-execution, down from 9.9 percent in 2024.
It added: “For 2026, higher oil production, modest spending growth and the start of corporate income tax receipts will widen the surplus to 8 percent (4.3 percent excluding investment income).”
The report noted that Abu Dhabi’s fiscal breakeven oil price is estimated at $42.60 per barrel in 2025, or $54.30 excluding investment income, highlighting the emirate’s resilience to oil market fluctuations.
If oil prices decline, the government can maintain economic stability by adjusting spending or drawing on dividends from Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.
According to Fitch, sovereign net foreign assets are projected to reach 255 percent of GDP by the end of 2024, with a substantial portion of surpluses allocated to government-related entities such as Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Co. and Mubadala. Some funds are also expected to support MGX, a joint venture focused on artificial intelligence investments.
Fitch added that contingent liabilities stemming from government-related entities debt, estimated at 48.3 percent of GDP in 2023, remain manageable given their asset bases, profitability, and the state’s fiscal strength.
Borrowing by government-related entities is anticipated to rise gradually as Abu Dhabi accelerates investment in non-oil sectors.
The agency also highlighted strong non-oil growth, which reached 6.2 percent in 2024. Overall GDP growth stood at 3.8 percent last year, tempered by lower oil output in line with OPEC+ quotas.
Fitch forecasts headline growth to rise to 6.3 percent in 2025 and 4 percent in 2026, driven by easing oil production constraints and increasing population levels.
The ratings agency warned that elevated geopolitical risks, particularly regional tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the US, pose a downside risk.
“A regional conflagration would pose a risk to Abu Dhabi’s hydrocarbon infrastructure and to Dubai as a trade, tourism and financial hub. Gulf maritime trade is a vital interest of the UAE,” the report said, though it added that the emirate’s large reserves provide protection against short-term disruptions.
Fitch’s sovereign rating model assigned Abu Dhabi a score equivalent to “AA+.” However, the agency applied a negative qualitative adjustment of one notch due to the emirate’s high dependence on oil revenues and geopolitical vulnerability.
The UAE’s country ceiling was affirmed at “AA+,” two notches above the sovereign rating, supported by strong constraints against capital controls, a dollarized financial system, and ample external buffers.
The agency stated that a downgrade could be triggered by a significant erosion of fiscal and external positions or a geopolitical shock that undermines macroeconomic stability. Conversely, an upgrade would require structural improvements such as reduced oil dependence and enhanced governance metrics.
Major Gulf markets jump after Israel-Iran ceasefire
Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index rose 2.1%
Dubai’s main share index jumped 3.1%
Updated 3 min 50 sec ago
Reuters
LONDON: Major stock markets in the Gulf advanced in early trade on Tuesday with risk appetite improving after US President Donald Trump said Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire.
Trump announced a complete ceasefire, potentially ending the 12-day war that saw millions flee Tehran and prompted fears of further escalation in the region.
Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index rose 2.1 percent, led by a 1.9 percent rise in Al Rajhi Bank and a 2.1 percent increase in the country’s biggest lender Saudi National Bank.
Elsewhere, recently-listed Flynas surged more than 7 percent to 79.80 riyals.
However, oil behemoth Saudi Aramco declined 1.7 percent, while fertilizers firm SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company retreated 1.1 percent.
Oil prices hit their lowest in two weeks after Israel agreed to Trump’s proposal, alleviating worries of supply disruptions in the Middle East, a major oil-producing region.
Brent crude futures were down $3.82, or 5.3 percent, at $67.66 a barrel at 0645 GMT.
Dubai’s main share index jumped 3.1 percent — its biggest intraday rise since mid-December if the gains hold — buoyed by a 4.7 percent rise in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties.
Among other gainers, budget airliner Air Arabia soared 7.2 percent — its biggest single-day rise in over three years if the gains persist.
Israel has agreed to Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire with Iran after it achieved its goal of removing Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missile threat, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement posted by his office on Tuesday.
In Abu Dhabi, the index gained 2.2 percent, led by a 8.3 percent leap in Aldar Properties.
The benchmark index in Qatar climbed more than 2 percent, with Qatar Islamic Bank rising 2.2 percent.
Qatar reopened its airspace after a brief suspension, its civil aviation authority said early on Tuesday, following a missile attack by Iran on an American air base in Qatar on Monday that caused no injuries.
Oil Updates — crude tumbles after Israel agrees to Trump’s proposal on ceasefire
Trump announces ‘complete and total’ ceasefire between Israel and Iran
Israel agrees to Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire
Updated 26 min 16 sec ago
Reuters Arab News
SINGAPORE: Oil prices hit their lowest in two weeks on Tuesday after Israel agreed to US President Donald Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire with Iran, alleviating worries of supply disruptions in the Middle East — a major oil-producing region.
Brent crude futures were down $2.42, or 3.39 percent, at $69.06 a barrel at 12:20 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell $2.32, or 3.39 percent, to $66.19 per barrel.
Israel has agreed to Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire with Iran after it achieved its goal of removing Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missile threat, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement posted by his office on Tuesday.
Trump had announced on Monday that Israel and Iran have fully agreed to a ceasefire, adding that Iran will begin the ceasefire immediately, followed by Israel after 12 hours. If both sides maintain peace, the war will officially end after 24 hours, concluding a 12-day conflict.
“If the ceasefire is followed as announced, investors might expect the return to normalcy in oil,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
“Moving forward, the extent to which Israel and Iran adhere to the recently announced ceasefire conditions will play a significant role in determining oil prices,” Sachdeva said.
Trump said that a “complete and total” ceasefire will go into force with a view to ending the conflict between the two nations.
“With the ceasefire news we are now seeing a continuation of the risk premium built into crude oil price last week all but evaporate,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG.
Iran is OPEC’s third-largest crude producer, and the easing of tensions would allow it to export more oil and prevent supply disruptions, a major factor in oil prices jumping in recent days.
Both the oil contracts settled over 7 percent lower in the previous session after rallying to five-month highs after the US attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend, stoking fears of a broadening in the Israel-Iran conflict.
The direct US involvement in the war had also focused investor squarely on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow and vital waterway between Iran and Oman in the Mideast Gulf through which between 18 million and 19 million barrels per day of crude oil and fuels flow, nearly a fifth of the world’s consumption.
Concerns were growing that any disruption to maritime activity through the strait would catapult prices, possibly into three-digit territory.
For now, however, traders were catching their breath from the recent oil price spike.
“Technically, the overnight sell-off reinforces a layer of resistance between approximately $78.40 (October 2024 and June 2025 highs) and $80.77 (the year-to-date high), and it’s clear that it will take something extremely unexpected and detrimental to supply for crude oil to break through this layer of resistance,” Sycamore added.
Saudi Arabia unveils 2nd phase of industrial incentives to attract high-value investment
Initiative extends beyond traditional financing to include direct grants
Kingdom works to position itself as a regional and global industrial hub
Updated 23 June 2025
Nadin Hassan
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has launched the second phase of its standardized industrial incentives program, aimed at boosting competitiveness and strengthening the Kingdom’s trade balance, a senior official said.
Speaking at the Saudi Industry Forum in Dhahran, Khalil Ibn Salamah, deputy minister of industry and mineral resources for industrial affairs, said the initiative supports the government’s efforts to drive high-value investments in priority sectors.
This comes as Saudi Arabia works to position itself as a regional and global industrial hub. Since its initial launch, the program has drawn more than 1,000 investors. Of the 118 applications received, 12 have reached the final qualification stage.
In his remarks, Ibn Salamah said: “It gives me great pleasure to announce the launch of the second batch of standardized incentives under this transformative program.”
He added: “Investors will be able to invest and apply for these new standardized incentives at the beginning of August.”
Khalil Ibn Salamah, deputy minister of industry and mineral resources for industrial affairs, speaking at the Saudi Industry Forum in Dhahran. X/@sif_2030
The initiative, described as one of the most important in the Kingdom’s industrial history, extends beyond traditional financing to include direct grants.
These are designed to support factories producing critical goods that are currently imported and not manufactured locally.
Eligible investors under the program may receive up to SR50 million, or 35 percent of the total investment value — whichever is higher.
The deputy minister emphasized the growing role of the private sector in shaping and implementing the National Industrial Strategy, which aims to expand domestic production and promote economic diversification.
“The partnership with the private sector has been a cornerstone in shaping the National Industrial Strategy, and it continues to grow steadily to ensure we meet the goals of our national industrial ambitions. The industrial investor remains an indispensable partner in our development efforts,” he said.
Saudi Arabia currently oversees 61 industrial cities across the Kingdom. Of these, 37 are supervised by the Saudi Authority for Industrial Cities and Technology Zones, also known as MODON, while 18 are private and integrated industrial cities.
Another four are managed by the Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu, and several others fall under the Special Economic Zones Authority, including OXAGON in NEOM.
These zones span more than 2 trillion sq. meters, with over 500 million sq. meters already developed or under development. Infrastructure investments across these sites have exceeded SR31 billion, with an expected return of eight to 12 times for every riyal spent.
“This program has already had a significant positive impact this year and is expected to continue doing so in the years to come,” Ibn Salamah noted.
The deputy minister said Saudi Arabia is currently overseeing over 1,900 industrial projects with investments totaling SR380 billion, nearly half of which are based in the Eastern Province.
He noted that conversion industries are expected to account for between 30 and 40 percent of the National Industrial Strategy’s overall targets, underlining their central role in expanding the Kingdom’s industrial base.
He further highlighted the role of the “Wafrah” program in boosting local consumption of polypropylene, reporting over 40 percent growth and 27 percent utilization of existing capacities.
Ibn Salamah stated that they are working with the Ministry of Energy to include 20 new materials in the program by 2025, which will significantly impact downstream industries.
The National Industrial Strategy is built around four core enablers supported by over 140 initiatives.
These include maximizing the value of natural resources, securing the availability of raw materials, enhancing the Kingdom’s exports, and developing specialized industrial clusters.
It also seeks to empower small and medium-sized factories by encouraging the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies.
In parallel, the government aims to increase the industrial sector’s contribution to the gros domestic product while reinforcing the resilience and efficiency of local supply chains.
Chemicals sector drives growth
During a panel discussion, Fahad Al-Jubairy, assistant deputy minister for sectoral strategies and regulation at the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, said the chemicals sector represents one of the most vital components of the national economy and is expected to account for more than half of the total economic impact projected by the National Industrial Strategy by 2035.
“The chemicals sector is a vital and strategic component of the national economy. It is one of the twelve key sectors targeted by the National Industrial Strategy — and indeed, it is considered the most critical due to its projected economic impact,” he said.
The forum featured several key announcements aimed at accelerating industrial growth and localization. X/@sif_2030
According to Al-Jubairy, Saudi Arabia aims to multiply the output of specialty and downstream chemicals by four to five times, while boosting the production of basic and intermediate chemicals by over 12 million tons annually over the next decade.
He also emphasized that the chemicals sector is foundational to the development of other industries such as automotive, aviation, construction, and advanced materials — all of which stand to benefit from the availability of locally produced value-added chemical products.
“The growth of the chemicals sector will position the Kingdom where it truly belongs among the world’s leading economies — particularly within the G20 — by reinforcing its global leadership across various products and industries, especially petrochemicals,” Al-Jubairy said.
He further noted that the sector’s growth will contribute significantly to job creation, increase industrial competitiveness, and open new investment opportunities for entrepreneurs, particularly in small and medium-sized enterprises.
New industrial projects
The forum featured several key announcements aimed at accelerating industrial growth and localization.
Two industrial complexes were inaugurated in the Eastern Province. The first, in Dammam Third Industrial City, will enhance service availability and integration with neighboring industrial zones and export outlets. The second, in Jubail Second Industrial City, targets high-value investments in the chemicals sector and strengthens links with upstream and intermediate feedstock sources.
Both fall under the Specialized Industrial Complexes Initiative, which supports economic diversification, local content, and job creation by attracting advanced manufacturing investments.
A strategic partnership was also announced to establish Saudi Arabia’s first tinplate manufacturing plant, in collaboration between the National Industrial Co. and China’s Shanghai Donghexin Group.
Additionally, MODON signed major industrial agreements, including a SR40 million contract with Abdullah Al-Shuwayer Sons Heavy Metal Industries, a SR35 million lease with Al-Sharq Polystyrene Factory, and a SR20 billion investment deal with Al Marje Al Hayawi Co. Ltd.
Direct domestic use of crude for power and industry slipped to 377,000 bpd, a decline of 1.6%
Crude intake fell 17.22% to 1.84 million bpd
Updated 23 June 2025
Dayan Abou Tine
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia pumped 9 million barrels per day of crude in April, a 0.54 percent month-on-month increase, according to the latest data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative.
Crude exports rose to 6.17 million bpd, up 7.16 percent from March, the data showed.
Direct domestic use of crude for power and industry slipped to 377,000 bpd, a decline of 1.6 percent versus the previous month and 6 percent below the April 2024 tally.
Demand from local refineries also eased. Crude intake fell 17.22 percent to 1.84 million bpd.
JODI, a platform overseen by the International Energy Forum, compiles monthly oil statistics supplied voluntarily by national governments. The Kingdom’s figures are published with a roughly two-month lag, providing one of the few publicly available windows into Saudi production, exports, and domestic consumption patterns.
For much of the period between 2020 and 2024, the wider OPEC+ alliance had been restraining supplies to shore up prices, beginning with the record 9.7 million-bpd collective cut agreed in April 2020 at the height of the pandemic and tapering only gradually through April 2022.
Additional curbs followed, with the group instituting a 2 million bpd reduction in October 2022 and layered on a series of voluntary cuts totaling 1.6 to 2.2 million bpd from May 2023, moves that remained in force into early 2025.
In a shift of strategy, OPEC+ members agreed in early May to bring back barrels in stages, scheduling incremental increases for May, June, and July and signaling room for a further 2.2 million bpd to return by November if market conditions allow.
A separate market context came from the June Monthly Oil Market Report issued by OPEC on June 16, in which the producer group said the global economy “has outperformed expectations” in the first half of 2025 and should remain resilient in the second half.
JODI #gas update by the numbers:
56 countries updated the database with the most recent April 2025 data. pic.twitter.com/qJW3P3t7we
OPEC kept its forecasts for oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 unchanged but trimmed its projection for non-OPEC+ supply growth in 2026 to 730,000 bpd, 70,000 bpd lower than the previous month, citing plateauing US shale output.
Geopolitical risk also featured prominently in late-June trading. Iran’s parliament approved a bill to shut the Strait of Hormuz, the 33-km wide passageway that carries close to one-fifth of the world’s crude exports.
Tanker-tracking data compiled by Reuters shows supertankers making U-turns, idling near the Gulf, or zigzagging to avoid the choke point as companies rush to limit their exposure. In response, freight rates for the largest vessels more than doubled, and Brent crude hit a five-month high.
A full closure — still subject to sign-off by Iran’s higher supervisory bodies — would force Gulf exporters to divert cargoes around Africa or rely on overland pipelines, moves that analysts say could squeeze near-term supply and push oil prices sharply higher. The Strait routinely handles about 20 percent of globally traded oil, underlining why even the threat of disruption can jolt energy markets.
