With Hezbollah’s influence eroded, can Lebanon forge a brighter future?

Hezbollah’s weakening, following the loss of key leaders and commanders last year, cleared the path for a new Lebanese government after years of gridlock, with independent lawmakers at the helm. (AFP file)eeeed
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Updated 09 March 2025
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With Hezbollah’s influence eroded, can Lebanon forge a brighter future?

  • Country is braced for a hopeful era with a new government in place and the Iran-backed group marginalized
  • Beirut working with Riyadh to resume trade and rebuild trust as President Aoun’s visit revitalizes relations

DUBAI: For the first time since its creation in 1982, Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia has seen its political and military clout diminished after a devastating war with Israel gutted its leadership, emptied its coffers, and depleted its once formidable arsenal.

Despite the grand funeral of its slain leader, Hassan Nasrallah, attended by thousands of mourners at Beirut’s Camille Chamoun Stadium on Feb. 23 to project an image of resilience and strength, the group’s influence over Lebanon and the wider region is undoubtedly on the wane.




Mourners walk during the funeral procession with the vehicle carrying the coffins of Hezbollah's slain leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine from the Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium towards the burial place on the outskirts of Beirut on February 23, 2025. (AFP/File)

“The Lebanese are certainly ready for a new period in the country where the state has a monopoly over weapons,” Michael Young, a senior editor at the Beirut-based Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, told Arab News.

“As for Hezbollah, it is not going to disappear, on the contrary, it is still around. The big question is whether it can transform itself or not.”

The fall of the Bashar Assad regime in neighboring Syria — once a critical supply line for weapons from Iran — has compounded Hezbollah’s woes, leaving it isolated, unable to rearm, and increasingly powerless to dictate Lebanese affairs.

Hezbollah is reportedly facing a financial crisis, leaving it scrambling to provide monetary support to the families of its injured members and to finance reconstruction work in its southern and eastern strongholds devastated by Israeli bombardment.




People sit outside a cafe along Beirut's Hamra street on June 20, 2024. (AFP/File)

“Some Hezbollah supporters have embraced the change while others are still screaming,” a waiter at one of the cafes along Beirut’s Hamra Street who did not wanted to be identified told Arab News.

“If we have to drag them into this new era kicking and screaming, then we will. It has been about them for so many decades. They left the country broken and darkened. It’s time to move on.”

Many Lebanese have warmly welcomed the end of Iranian hegemony and the crippling of its biggest proxy in the Middle East. The election of former army chief Joseph Aoun as president and ICJ judge Nawaf Salam as prime minister in January is emblematic of this shift.

Backed by the US, France, and Saudi Arabia, Aoun’s election by Lebanese lawmakers is the clearest indication yet that Iran’s influence in Lebanon is spent, opening the way to reforms and international support to help pull the nation out of the mire.




Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman receives Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun (L) at Al-Yamamah Palace in Riyadh on March 3, 2025. (SPA)

Aoun’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia — the first by a Lebanese leader in eight years — has been regarded as a positive step in resetting ties between the two countries.

During the visit, Prime Minister and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman promised to reactivate a $3 billion funding package for the Lebanese army, and a released joint statement declared both sides are looking into ways to allow Saudi citizens to visit Lebanon again.

Both countries are also looking into the resumption of Lebanese imports into the Kingdom, which had been halted due to the smuggling of millions of amphetamine and Captagon pills into the Arab Gulf states via Lebanon, often hidden in regular cargo.

To be sure, not everyone in Lebanon is pleased with the dramatic political shift taking place. Hezbollah supporters have been left reeling since the loss of their charismatic leader and the forced acceptance of the US-brokered ceasefire with Israel, which has been interpreted as a major blow to the “Axis of Resistance” of Iran-backed proxies throughout the region.

“The Shiite community in Lebanon had their golden days under Nasrallah, and now it’s a new phase where they’re mourning the golden days,” Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said in an interview with an Israeli TV channel.

Ghaddar, who is originally from southern Lebanon, said that Hezbollah called for a mass demonstration in downtown Beirut on March 8, 2005, to “ascertain that they’re taking over, inheriting the Syrian army and taking over the Lebanese institutions.”




Hezbollah supporters wave the yellow flag of the Lebanese militant group as they parade on motorbikes past buildings destroyed in recent Israeli strikes on November 27, 2024, after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect. (AFP)

The war between Israel and the Lebanese militia began on Oct. 8, 2023, when fighters in south Lebanon began firing rockets into northern Israel in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which a day earlier had attacked southern Israel, triggering the war in Gaza.

What began as a tit-for-tat exchange of fire along the Israel-Lebanon border suddenly escalated in September 2024 when Israel intensified its aerial bombardment of Hezbollah positions, attacked its communications networks, and mounted a ground offensive.

IN NUMBERS

Real GDP (PPP): $65.8 billion

• Total population: 5.36 million

Public debt: 146.8% of GDP

Total refugees: 1.27 million+

Source: The World Factbook (CIA)

On Sept. 17-18, thousands of pagers and hundreds of walkie-talkies in the possession of Hezbollah members suddenly exploded in synchronized waves after being sabotaged by Israel. The attack killed 42 and injured 3,500, crippling the militia’s communications.

According to one of Nasrallah’s sons, Jawad, his father was left spiritually broken by the pager and walkie-talkie attack and the death of Fuad Shukr, a senior commander and long-time Hezbollah member, in an Israeli strike.

In an interview with Lebanese television network Al-Manar, Jawad described his father as “spiritless and sad” after these blows.

“You could see that he was hurt,” he said. “There were times I could not bear to hear his voice when he was in that state. You listen to him trying to seek encouragement, but once you hear his voice, it hurts your heart. Later, I learned that he was crying.”




A flag bearing a portrait of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is displayed during the funeral on February 28, 2025 of 95 Hezbollah fighters and civilians killed in Israeli airstrikes during hostilities that lasted more than a year between Israel and Hezbollah, in the southern Lebanese border town of Aitaroun. (AFP)

On Sept. 27, 2024, Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on an underground Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut’s Dahiyeh suburb. The attack, carried out by Israeli F-15I fighter jets, involved more than 80 bombs, destroying the bunker and nearby buildings.

The Israel military confirmed Nasrallah’s death on Sept. 28, and his body was recovered the following day. The strike resulted in at least 33 deaths and nearly 200 injuries, including civilians.

As the conflict threatened to drag the US and Iran into direct confrontation, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Israel trading missile strikes, the international community acted to secure a ceasefire in November 2024, which has by and large held.

Hezbollah’s battering by Israel has left it politically enfeebled, allowing independent lawmakers and parties not affiliated with the militia to establish a new government after more than two years of political deadlock.

“Up to now there are no signs that the party is going through a reassessment of its previous strategy, although some say within the party such discussions are taking place,” Carnegie Middle East Center’s Young told Arab News.

“Given the hardening of the Iranian position recently, with Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saying there can be no negotiations with America, I am not sure that is correct.”

Lebanon remains in the midst of a devastating economic crisis, with the local currency having lost more than 90 percent of its value since 2019 and up to 80 percent of the population living in poverty — at least 40 percent of them in extreme poverty.

Unemployment rates have skyrocketed and banks continue to impose strict controls on withdrawals and transfers. Meanwhile, the World Bank estimates it will cost $8.5 billion to repair the damage of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.




A woman walks past the rubble of a building that was destroyed by previous Israeli bombardment in the village of Yaroun in south Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 21, 2024. (AFP file)

For the thousands of Lebanese who were forced to flee their homes in the south under Israel’s bombardment, the mere suggestion that Hezbollah was somehow victorious in the conflict, as some hardline supporters like to claim, is utterly delusional.

“If my parents return to their village, when should we expect them to be expelled again?” Ali, a university student who now lives with his parents in a cramped Beirut apartment and did not want to give his full name, told Arab News.

“How many more times? We are caught in the crossfire, doomed to be a football between Hezbollah and Israel.

“We are tired of being kicked around. It is shameful. Then you get a deluded supporter who tells you we’ve won. What did we win?”




A vehicle drives past buildings destroyed in Israeli strikes during the latest war, near the border wall in the southern Lebanese village of Ramia. (AFP)

The international community and Arab donors have so far refused to release any aid funds until UN Security Council Resolution 1701 is fully implemented, which calls for the disarmament and disbanding of all armed groups in the country except for the Lebanese army.

After several years of political gridlock and a power vacuum once filled by Hezbollah and the Amal bloc led by Nabih Berri, Lebanon is now in a unique position to stabilize and integrate itself once again into the Arab fold.

President Aoun’s remarks during the Arab League summit in Cairo on March 4 reflect his apparent determination to set Lebanon on this new course, with some describing his speech as “resistance through diplomacy.”




'with the Hezbollah sidelined, hopes are high that Lebanon would stabilize and integrate itself once again into the Arab fold. (Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

The Washington Institute’s Ghaddar believes that while the current phase may not be “the end of Hezbollah for the (Lebanese Shiite) community,” the lack of money, jobs, services, and reconstruction has led people to seek alternatives.

“It’s very clear that Hezbollah is no longer an option for them,” she said in the interview with the Israeli TV channel.

Today, “Hezbollah is a new entity, which cannot provide, cannot protect, obviously cannot preserve, and cannot rebuild.”
 

 


Additional US embassy staff left Iraq due to ‘regional tensions’: US official

Updated 50 min 47 sec ago
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Additional US embassy staff left Iraq due to ‘regional tensions’: US official

  • The departures were a continuation of a process that started last week
  • The embassy and the consulate remain operational

BAGHDAD: More personnel from the United States diplomatic mission departed Iraq over the weekend as part of ongoing efforts to reduce embassy staffing amid “regional tensions,” a US official said Sunday after Washington attacked Iranian nuclear sites.
“As part of our ongoing effort to streamline operations, additional personnel departed Iraq on June 21 and 22,” the US official told AFP.
The departures were a continuation of a process that started last week “out of an abundance of caution and due to heightened regional tensions,” he added.
The embassy and the consulate remain operational.
Earlier on Sunday, Washington joined Israel’s war with Tehran as President Donald Trump announced US strikes on Iran’s main nuclear sites.
Iran had threatened to target US military bases in the region if conflict breaks out.
Fears are growing in Iraq over a possible intervention by Iran-backed armed factions, who have threatened Washington’s interests in the region if it were to join Israel in its war against Iran.
Iraq, which has for years been navigating a delicate balancing act between Tehran and Washington, has long been a fertile ground for proxy battles.


11 hurt, building hit in Israel after Iran missiles: rescue services, TV

Updated 8 min 29 sec ago
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11 hurt, building hit in Israel after Iran missiles: rescue services, TV

  • Public broadcaster KAN 11 showed images of a devastated building surrounded by mounds of rubble

JERUSALEM: At least 11 people were hurt and at least one impact was reported in central Israel after Iran launched two waves of missiles following the US bombing of its nuclear sites, rescue services and reports said.

Israel’s Magen David Adom rescue service said in a statement that “11 people were taken to hospital, including one in moderate condition – a 30-year-old man wounded in the upper body by shrapnel.”

Public broadcaster KAN 11 showed images of a devastated building surrounded by mounds of rubble that it said was in central Israel, following the two waves of missiles launched at Israel from around 7:30 a.m. (0430 GMT).


Airlines keep avoiding Middle East airspace after US operation on Iran

Updated 9 min 48 sec ago
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Airlines keep avoiding Middle East airspace after US operation on Iran

  • Choose other routings such as north via the Caspian Sea or south via Egypt and Saudi Arabia
  • New flight paths result in higher fuel and crew costs and longer flight times

Airlines continued to avoid large parts of the Middle East on Sunday after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, according to flight tracking website FlightRadar24, with traffic already skirting airspace in the region due to recent missile exchanges.

“Following US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, commercial traffic in the region is operating as it has since new airspace restrictions were put into place last week,” FlightRadar24 said on social media platform X.

Its website showed airlines were not flying in the airspace over Iran, Iraq, Syria and Israel. They have chosen other routings such as north via the Caspian Sea or south via Egypt and Saudi Arabia, even if it results in higher fuel and crew costs and longer flight times.

READ: Trump tells Iran ‘peace or tragedy’ in special address after main nuclear sites bombed

Missile and drone barrages in an expanding number of conflict zones globally represent a high risk to airline traffic.

Since Israel launched strikes on Iran on June 13, carriers have suspended flights to destinations in the affected countries, though there have been some evacuation flights from neighboring nations and some bringing stranded Israelis home.

Israel’s two largest carriers, El Al Israel Airlines and Arkia, said on Sunday they were suspending rescue flights that allowed people to return to Israel until further notice. El Al said it would also extend its cancelation of scheduled flights through June 27.

Israel’s airports authority said the country’s airspace was closed for all flights, but land crossings with Egypt and Jordan remained open.

Japan’s foreign ministry said on Sunday it had evacuated 21 people, including 16 Japanese nationals, from Iran overland to Azerbaijan. It said it was the second such evacuation since Thursday and that it would conduct further evacuations if necessary.

New Zealand’s government said on Sunday it would send a Hercules military transport plane to the Middle East on standby to evacuate New Zealanders from the region.

It said in a statement that government personnel and a C-130J Hercules aircraft would leave Auckland on Monday. The plane would take some days to reach the region, it said.

The government was also in talks with commercial airlines to assess how they may be able to assist, it added.


What to know about the Iranian nuclear sites Trump says were hit by US strikes

Updated 22 June 2025
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What to know about the Iranian nuclear sites Trump says were hit by US strikes

  • Iran has several other sites in its nuclear program that were not announced as targets in the US strikes

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates: President Donald Trump has said US forces attacked three Iranian nuclear and military sites, further upping the stakes in the Israel-Iran war.
Trump said the strikes, which he described as “very successful,” had hit the Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan sites, with Fordo being the primary target.
Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency confirmed there were attacks early Sunday at Iran’s Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites.
IRNA quoted Akbar Salehi, Isfahan’s deputy governor in charge of security affairs, saying there had been attacks around Isfahan and Natanz. He did not elaborate. Another official confirmed an attack targeting Iran’s underground Fordo nuclear site.
Israel launched a surprise barrage of attacks on sites in Iran on June 13, which Israeli officials said was necessary to head off what they claimed was an imminent threat that Iran would build nuclear bombs.
Iran, which has long insisted its nuclear program is peaceful, has retaliated with a series of missile and drone strikes in Israel, while Israel has continued to strike sites in Iran.
The US and Iran had been in talks that could have resulted in the US lifting some of its crushing economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran drastically limiting or ending its enrichment of uranium. Until Saturday, Washington had helped shoot down Iranian strikes on Israel but had not launched direct attacks on Iran.
Here’s a look at the sites Trump said the US struck and their importance to Iran’s nuclear program.
Natanz enrichment facility
Iran’s nuclear facility at Natanz, located some 220 kilometers (135 miles) southeast of Tehran, is the country’s main enrichment site and had already been targeted by Israeli airstrikes. Uranium had been enriched to up to 60 percent purity at the site — a mildly radioactive level but a short step away from weapons grade — before Israel destroyed the aboveground part of the facility, according to the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Another part of the facility on Iran’s Central Plateau is underground to defend against potential airstrikes. It operates multiple cascades, or groups of centrifuges working together to more quickly enrich uranium. The IAEA has said it believes that most if not all of these centrifuges were destroyed by an Israeli strike that cut off power to the site.
The IAEA said those strikes caused contamination only at the site itself, not the surrounding area.
Iran also is burrowing into the Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā, or Pickax Mountain, which is just beyond Natanz’s southern fencing. Natanz has been targeted by the Stuxnet virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation, which destroyed Iranian centrifuges. Two separate attacks, attributed to Israel, also have struck the facility.
Fordo enrichment facility
Iran’s nuclear facility at Fordo is located some 100 kilometers (60 miles) southwest of Tehran. It also hosts centrifuge cascades, but isn’t as big as Natanz. Its construction began at least in 2007, according to the IAEA, although Iran only informed the UN nuclear watchdog about the facility in 2009 after the US and allied Western intelligence agencies became aware of its existence.
Buried under a mountain and protected by anti-aircraft batteries, Fordo appears designed to withstand airstrikes. Military experts have said it could likely only be targeted by “bunker buster” bombs — a term for bombs that are designed to penetrate deep below the surface before exploding — such as the latest GBU-57 A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb in the American arsenal. The roughly 30,000 pound (13,600 kilogram) precision-guided bomb is designed to attack deeply buried and hardened bunkers and tunnels.
The US has only configured and programed its B-2 Spirit stealth bomber to deliver that bomb, according to the Air Force. The B-2 is only flown by the Air Force, and is produced by Northrop Grumman, meaning that Washington would have to be involved in such an operation.
Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center
The facility in Isfahan, some 350 kilometers (215 miles) southeast of Tehran, employs thousands of nuclear scientists. It also is home to three Chinese research reactors and laboratories associated with the country’s atomic program.
Israel has struck buildings at the Isfahan nuclear site, among them a uranium conversion facility. The IAEA said there has been no sign of increased radiation at the site.
Other nuclear sites
Iran has several other sites in its nuclear program that were not announced as targets in the US strikes.
Iran’s only commercial nuclear power plant is in Bushehr on the Arabian Gulf, some 750 kilometers (465 miles) south of Tehran. Iran is building two other reactors like it at the site. Bushehr is fueled by uranium produced in Russia, not Iran, and is monitored by the IAEA.
The Arak heavy water reactor is 250 kilometers (155 miles) southwest of Tehran. Heavy water helps cool nuclear reactors, but it produces plutonium as a byproduct that can potentially be used in nuclear weapons. Iran had agreed under its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers to redesign the facility to relieve proliferation concerns.
The Tehran Research Reactor is at the headquarters of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, the civilian body overseeing the country’s atomic program. It initially required highly enriched uranium but was later retrofitted to use low-enriched uranium over proliferation concerns.

 


Israel seeks swift action on Iran, sources say, with a split US administration

Updated 22 June 2025
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Israel seeks swift action on Iran, sources say, with a split US administration

  • The Israelis believe they have a limited window of opportunity to move against the deeply buried site at Fordow, the crown jewel of Iran’s nuclear program, said the sources
  • Trump, who campaigned on a promise to keep the US out of what he called “stupid” foreign wars, has himself seemed conflicted at times about whether to join the Israeli attack on Iran or focus on diplomatic efforts to end Tehran’s nuclear program

WASHINGTON/DUBAI/JERUSALEM: Israeli officials have told the Trump administration they do not want to wait two weeks for Iran to reach a deal to dismantle key parts of its nuclear program and Israel could act alone before the deadline is up, two sources said, amid a continuing debate on Trump’s team about whether the US should get involved.
The two sources familiar with the matter said Israel had communicated their concerns to Trump administration officials on Thursday in what they described as a tense phone call.
The Israeli officials said they do not want to wait the two weeks that US President Donald Trump presented on Thursday as a deadline for deciding whether the US will get in the Israel-Iran war, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

HIGHLIGHTS

• US and Israel held tense phone call on Thursday

• Israel signals it could act on Fordow before end of Trump's deadline

The Israeli participants on the call included Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz and military chief Eyal Zamir, according to a security source.
The Israelis believe they have a limited window of opportunity to move against the deeply buried site at Fordow, the crown jewel of Iran’s nuclear program, said the sources. The US is the only country with the bunker-busting bombs powerful enough to reach the facility, which is dug into the side of a mountain.
Reuters reported on Saturday that the United States is moving B-2 bombers to the Pacific island of Guam, reinforcing the possibility that the US could participate directly in an attack. The B-2 can be equipped to carry America’s 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, designed to destroy targets deep underground, such as the one at Fordow.
A person in Washington familiar with the matter said Israel has communicated to the US administration that it believes Trump’s window of up to two weeks is too long and that more urgent action is needed. The person did not say whether the Israelis made that point during the high-level call.
During the call, Vice President JD Vance pushed back, saying the US should not be directly involved and suggesting that the Israelis were going to drag the country into war, said the sources. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also participated in the call, said a security source.
A White House official strongly disputed the characterization of Vance’s comments in the call but declined to elaborate. “The Vice President did not say this during the call,” said the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
The Jerusalem Post reported earlier that a phone call had taken place on Thursday.
The prospect of a US strike against Iran has exposed divisions in the coalition of supporters that brought Trump to power, with some prominent members of his base urging him not to get the country involved in a new Middle East war.
Vance has frequently criticized past US involvement in conflicts, including Iraq and Afghanistan, but has lately defended Trump against Republican critics who urge the administration to stay out of the Iran conflict.
Other Republicans, including Trump ally Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, have said they hope Trump will help Israel finish destroying Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump, who campaigned on a promise to keep the US out of what he called “stupid” foreign wars, has himself seemed conflicted at times about whether to join the Israeli attack on Iran or focus on diplomatic efforts to end Tehran’s nuclear program. But his rhetoric in recent days has become increasingly aggressive toward Iran.
Iran insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.
The Israeli Prime Minister’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Iran’s mission to the United Nations also did not immediately respond.

STRIKE ON FORDOW INCREASINGLY LIKELY
Publicly, Netanyahu has not ruled out Israel attacking Fordow alone, though officials have not provided any details on how that would be achieved.
Four sources said it is now increasingly likely that the country will launch a solo military operation. Israeli air superiority over much of Iran makes an operation more feasible, though still risky, said two of the sources.
The Israelis feel they have the momentum and have limited time given the costs of the war, one source added.
“I don’t see them waiting much longer,” said the source.
It is not clear whether such an operation would involve bombing, ground forces, or both. Two of the sources said that rather than attempting to destroy the entire site Israel could instead do significant damage to it.
That could mean focusing on destroying what is inside the site rather than the site itself, said one of the sources, declining to elaborate.
Some analysts have speculated that Israel could use special forces to enter Fordow and blow it up from inside.
Another scenario being considered, according to a source familiar with the matter, would be to drop a series of munitions in rapid succession in an attempt to breach the fortified site, similar to how the Israeli military killed Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah last year.
Such a strike could be followed by an incursion by special forces, the source said.
It is not clear that Israel has munitions powerful enough to penetrate the fortified facility. It is widely believed that to have a high chance of success, US intervention would be needed.
But even with the massive firepower of a joint US-Israeli military action, military and nuclear experts believe that a military operation would probably only temporarily set back a program the West fears is already aimed at producing atom bombs one day, although Iran denies it.