Tensions between Kabul and Islamabad threaten the entire region

Modern wars are more horrific than any in history, because they are total in death, injury and effects. The combatants— local resistance groups and the intervening states— don’t discriminate between fighters and the civil populations. The weapon system and the strategy employed by the superpowers of modern times, the Soviet Union (1980-88) and the United States (2001-2021) in Afghanistan resulted in disproportionately the largest civilian casualties and displacement and destruction of life-supporting elements, forcing millions to seek refuge outside the country. 

The real cause of the Afghan tragedy, beginning with the communist takeover, is the Afghan ruling groups of the past and present seeking external intervention to bolster their capacity against rivals to avenge and overwhelm. The linkage between national groups and foreign powers, all involved in power games of their own, has perpetuated cycles of conflicts, forcing more Afghans to leave the country. Afghan refugees outnumber any other refugee group, as millions of them of all ages, genders and classes are scattered worldwide, but mostly in two neighboring countries, Iran and Pakistan.

Even with the next phase in the 40-year cycle of wars in the post-9/11 American-led war that continued for the next 20 years, Afghanistan and its people saw a change in their masters, but not in terms of durable and sustainable peace and stability. A trillion-dollar investment in the Afghan war and hundreds of billions in state and nation-building enterprise over two decades ended with the same Taliban taking over that the international coalition of states had ousted earlier. 

Pull-quote: The victims of the Afghan wars are in double jeopardy today: the dogmatic Taliban and a fast-changing world that is unwilling to accept them anymore. 

- Rasul Bakhsh Rais

With each successive phase of the war, more Afghans from different social groups and classes have left the country for different reasons. The latest social groups of Afghans are those who benefitted from the American war as allies and faithful collaborators and fought the current ruling group, the Afghan Taliban, who took over in August 2021. The victims of the Afghan wars are in double jeopardy today: the dogmatic Taliban and a fast-changing world that is unwilling to accept them anymore. 

Unfortunately, the regional and international climate for Afghan refugees has changed in recent years, and months since the beginning of the second term of President Donald Trump. There were times when Iran and Pakistan welcomed about five to six million Afghan refugees with open arms but with a heavy underlay of strategic and political motivations. Today, Iran and Pakistan feel a sense of exhaustion after more than four decades and fear for their own security. 

Last year, Iran reportedly expelled about 120,000 Afghans, and Pakistan has expatriated close to 800,000 allegedly undocumented ones. It has set the end of this month as the deadline for Afghans, even with Afghan Citizen Cards issued, to leave the country. A majority of them have never been to their country, as they were born and bred in Pakistan. Other militant groups like Tehreek-e-Teliban Pakistan (TTP) that target Pakistan, are emboldened by the tensions between Kabul and Islamabad. 

But it would be wise to remember that Afghanistan and Pakistan share common interests in security and stability and face similar threats from militant outfits, specifically Daesh Khorasan. 

In fact, it’s not just the regions of Central and West Asia, but even countries beyond them, that will face a grave security challenge because of this rife bilateral relationship. By showing understanding and empathy on the question of the forced repatriation of Afghan refugees, Pakistan could build bridges with the interim Afghan Taliban regime and resolve the trickier issues of border security not just for itself, but also the entire region. 

- Rasul Bakhsh Rais is Professor of Political Science in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, LUMS, Lahore. His latest book is “Islam, Ethnicity and Power Politics: Constructing Pakistan’s National Identity” (Oxford University Press, 2017). X: @RasulRais