RIYADH: Saudi Arabia achieved four consecutive years of growth in venture capital relative to its economy, a feat unmatched among its peers, according to a new report.
Between 2020 and 2023, the Kingdom was the only large market in the sample to post uninterrupted annual gains in VC intensity, contrasting with the more episodic deal flow seen across Africa and parts of Southeast Asia, MAGNiTT’s recently published Macro Meets VC report stated.
While 2024 saw a slight contraction in funding amid global tightening, Saudi Arabia’s multi-year upward trend signals a sustained commitment to innovation-led diversification.
The Kingdom is steadily consolidating its position as a model for policy-driven venture capital development in emerging markets as it seeks to diversify its economy in line with the Vision 2030 blueprint.
“Saudi Arabia is becoming the model for long-term, policy-driven ecosystem building,” the report notes, highlighting that sovereign limited partners and local funds have been instrumental in buffering the Kingdom from some of the volatility that struck other emerging venture markets.
Saudi Arabia’s policy momentum
The MAGNiTT data revealed that Saudi Arabia recorded a five-year average VC-to-GDP ratio of 0.07 percent.
Although this figure remains modest compared to more mature hubs like Singapore, its consistent upward movement underscores the growing depth of domestic capital formation.
Beyond the headline ratios, the Kingdom’s strategic positioning has also come into sharper focus. Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE, is classified as a “Growth Market”— a designation that reflects not only a sizeable GDP and population but also the rising economic clout of local consumer and enterprise demand.
With a GDP approaching $950 billion and a population exceeding 33 million, Saudi Arabia presents a significant scale advantage.
According to MAGNiTT’s benchmarking, this size creates “natural expansion targets for startups moving beyond initial launch markets,” supporting both regional and international founders seeking to diversify beyond smaller ecosystems.
MENA’s uneven progress
Across the broader Middle East and North Africa region, venture capital activity has continued to evolve unevenly.
The UAE has retained its reputation as a strategic innovation hub and one of the few “MEGA Markets” in the emerging world, boasting a five-year average VC-to-GDP ratio of 0.20 percent.
This proportion — identical to Indonesia’s ratio — signifies robust venture activity relative to the economy’s size.
Yet, while the UAE maintained this level, Saudi Arabia has seen more consistent growth in funding, a dynamic the report attributes to policy-led market development.
In Egypt, VC has gained further traction over the period under review. Egypt achieved a 25 percent rise in total funding compared to the previous five-year average, lifting its VC-GDP ratio by 0.02 percentage points to 0.11 percent.
Although Egypt’s overall economic constraints remain acute — GDP per capita still lags below $10,000 — the relative progress suggests improving investor confidence, particularly in fintech and e-commerce.
However, the report cautions that deal flow in Egypt, much like in Nigeria, remains fragile and prone to episodic swings driven by a handful of large transactions.
The macroeconomic context across MENA has also been influential. Elevated oil price volatility and the impact of the Israel–Iran conflict have created a challenging backdrop for policymakers.
Brent crude surged more than 13 percent in a single day earlier in 2025, underscoring the region’s exposure to external shocks.
Nevertheless, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE managed to maintain monetary policy stability in line with the US Federal Reserve’s cautious stance.
Saudi Arabia kept its benchmark rate at 5.5 percent, supported by inflation trending around 2 percent, while the UAE held steady at 4.4 percent.
These decisions reflected a delicate balance between containing price pressures and supporting economic diversification efforts.
Overall, MENA’s five-year aggregate venture funding reached $12.52 billion. Although this total remains well below the levels seen in more mature regions, it represents a meaningful share of emerging markets capital.
MENA also posted the highest deal count relative to its peers in Southeast Asia and Africa over the period, indicating a broader base of early-stage transactions even as late-stage funding remains more limited.
The report emphasizes that expanding geographic and sectoral reach within MENA will be critical to boosting efficiency metrics.
“VC remains heavily concentrated in a few sectors and cities,” the report observes, warning that without broader inclusion, capital intensity will struggle to match potential.
Southeast Asia’s VC benchmark
Beyond MENA, Southeast Asia’s ecosystem stands out as the most mature among emerging venture markets, driven primarily by Singapore’s exceptional performance.
Over the 2020–2024 period, Singapore achieved a 5-year average VC-to-GDP ratio of 1.3 percent, surpassing not only all emerging markets but also developed economies such as the US, which registered 0.79 percent, and the UK, with 0.73 percent.
Even with a 5.4 percent decline in total funding compared to the prior five years and a 0.19 percentage point drop in VC-GDP ratio, Singapore maintained unmatched capital efficiency.
The report describes the city-state as “a benchmark for capital efficiency in venture ecosystems,” attributing this strength to strong regulatory frameworks, institutional capital participation, and a deep bench of experienced founders and investors.
Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, recorded total VC funding volumes nearly twice as large as Singapore’s over five years, but its relative VC-GDP ratio remained lower at 0.2 percent.
This dynamic illustrates one of the report’s core findings: venture capital inflows correlate more strongly with GDP per capita than total GDP.
In Indonesia’s case, while its GDP surpassed $1.2 trillion, GDP per capita hovered around $4,000, constraining purchasing power and, by extension, startup revenue potential.
Thailand, meanwhile, reported funding gains due mainly to a single mega deal rather than systematic improvements in ecosystem depth.
In Africa, Nigeria emerged as an unexpected bright spot in 2024, as a single major transaction lifted its VC-GDP ratio to 0.15 percent — the highest in the region for that year.
However, this outlier result also revealed the episodic nature of capital deployment in developing markets.
Kenya registered a relatively high five-year VC-GDP ratio of 0.3 percent, even as absolute funding volumes remained modest.
The report notes that in low-GDP contexts, this ratio can overstate ecosystem maturity.
South Africa and Egypt showed more modest growth trajectories, weighed down by persistent inflation, structural constraints, and capital scarcity.
In aggregate, African economies continued to lag both Southeast Asia and MENA in total venture funding and deal velocity.
Global challenges ahead
Globally, the five years covered by the report were marked by intensifying volatility.
High interest rates, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on capital flows.
The US Federal Reserve held its policy rate between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent through mid-2025, citing “meaningful” inflation risks.
The European Central Bank moved to lower its deposit rate to 2 percent, reflecting cooling inflation but acknowledging sluggish growth.
The World Bank cut its global GDP forecast for 2025 to 2.3 percent, the weakest pace since the 2008 crisis, excluding recessions.
These headwinds contributed to the decline in venture capital across most emerging markets in 2024.
In response, sovereign capital and strategic investors have become increasingly important backstops.
The report highlights that domestic capital formation in MENA has partially offset declining global risk appetite.
However, these funds tend to be slower moving, more sector-concentrated, and less risk-tolerant than international investors.
“Without renewed foreign inflows or regional exit pathways, deal velocity may remain muted into the second half of 2025,” the report warns.
This environment is likely to force startups to extend runway and compel general partners to adopt more selective deployment strategies.
Despite the challenges, the outlook for Saudi Arabia and other growth markets remains constructive over the medium term.
The Kingdom’s policy clarity, deepening institutional capital pools, and Vision 2030 commitments create a foundation for continued expansion.
As the report concludes: “High GDP markets like KSA and Indonesia trail in VC efficiency — suggesting capital underutilization.”
Closing this gap between potential and realized funding will be the defining challenge for emerging ecosystems as they navigate a turbulent global landscape.
