The Pahalgam fallout: Another low for Pakistan and India
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Following the Pahalgam terror attacks of Tuesday, the Indian government has decided to further downgrade relations with Pakistan and hold in abeyance the Indus Waters Treaty.
These decisions reflect an emotional response to the situation and are geared to divert the public’s outrage onto Pakistan. If carried to the extreme, this marks another major low in India-Pakistan relations.
The National Security Committee of Pakistan has responded equally with more forceful counter measures by holding all agreements with India in abeyance and freezing all trade including through third countries. Indian over flights have also been terminated.
In short, both Pakistan and India are now preparing to enact a fight to the finish. Although much graver in severity, we have been in this situation before. India has been accusing Pakistan of terrorism, to divert Pakistan’s call for justice for the Kashmiri people in accordance with Security Council resolutions.
Delhi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government has a political/ ideological policy to realize the Akhand Bharat, which means the dissolution of Pakistan. It has during the past two decades taken a raft of measures to establish its hegemony in South Asia.
One cannot but be dismayed by the immaturity underlying these policies. The fact is that Pakistan and India are rather large states with nuclear weapons. Both have a special responsibility to act maturely.
A fight to the finish means annihilation of both states and a nuclear winter for the world. It is therefore important to walk back from the brink. Any kinetic action by India against Pakistan will be responded to. No one will win.
The cultural and historic affinities between the two countries make it incumbent for both to work their respective way forward in cooperation.
Salman Bashir
Pakistan has withstood many more terror attacks in recent years. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) as well as other militant and separatist forces have been unleashed against Pakistan. It is no secret that the insurgency in Balochistan is supported by the Indians. The Indian National Security Adviser is on record to this effect.
The ceasefire on the Line of Control renewed in 2021 has been respected. The decision to put into abeyance all bilateral agreements could mean that the LoC ceasefire does not hold any more.
India has been dismissive of Pakistan for over a decade. Judging that Pakistan is weak and wrapt up with security, economic and political problems it has now started a process to create more turmoil- a fight to the finish. Yet, it will discover that the people of Pakistan are resilient and capable of overcoming all odds.
The question is whether a process can be thought of by which both sides could start to de-escalate.
Diplomatically, the external factor could be one. In the past, the US and UK have played a role in de-escalation. Now, with President Trump involved in larger world-wide projects, the question is whether he will have the inclination to get involved.
Legally, the Indus Waters Treaty cannot be unilaterally discontinued. Pakistan can go to the World Bank and probably the Security Council to find redress.
A bilateral, Pakistan-India process of de-escalation appears to be the most appropriate way to proceed. In this context, the most dramatic method could be a leadership level contact- perhaps Prime Minister Shehbaz’s decision to visit New Delhi.
Also a back channel needs to be established soon. A military intelligence meeting between the two, specific to Pahalgam, would be desirable. Military to military contacts should be kept going through the military chiefs.
While going through all the phases of a classic Pakistan and India crisis, eventually a solution needs to be worked out by bilateral engagement.
Both Pakistan and India must realize that they are destined to remain neighbors forever. Good relations serve not only in the interests of peace, but also provide an opportunity for both to develop economically.
The cultural and historic affinities between the two countries make it incumbent for both to work their respective way forward in amity and cooperation.
- Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India. X: @Salman_B_PK
