Earlier this year, a friend of mine who runs a small PR company in Dubai moved with his team into a new office in Dubai Media City. And the situation he encountered had been unthinkable just a month or two earlier. Everywhere people were packing up, vacating offices, tearing down company signs. Apparently, my friend had the choice of at least a dozen or so offices to choose from.
In recent weeks, the media have been full of articles and reports on the impact of the global economic crisis on the Gulf countries, and particularly Dubai. Just last week a piece in the New York Times spoke of thousands of foreigners leaving the emirate every day, dumping their cars at the airport. While this may have been exaggerated, it is true that the “Dubai miracle”, where nothing could go wrong, has ended. The state had to disclose that it is $70bn in debt — about 100 percent of its GDP; almost half of real estate developments are now either “indefinitely postponed” or outright canceled; and there is an exodus of professionals and workers.
Will Dubai collapse? Of course not. And for three very good reasons:
First, the very fact that almost all of the emirate’s labor is foreign is a boon. Simply put, there will be no long lines at the unemployment office. There will be no public or parliamentary debate over how to help those who are now out of work. If you lose your job and you’re a foreigner, you’ll be on the next plane to wherever you came from in the first place. If you happen to be one of the 250,000 working Emiratis (not even half of whom are in Dubai), then you won’t lose your job to begin with, or you’ll be re-assigned or given some government post. For Dubai, just like the other small Gulf states, the economic crisis does not automatically translate into a social issue.
Second, Dubai may not have much oil but its big brother, Abu Dhabi, does. As a matter of fact, it sits on a good 10 percent of the world’s oil, and has between $400bn and $800bn in its sovereign wealth fund alone. And since both Dubai and Abu Dhabi are federal subentities of the same country — the United Arab Emirates — and since upon establishment of the UAE there was a pact that oil-rich Abu Dhabi would financially provide for the other emirates, there is no way that Dubai could be left hanging.
Third, despite all the hype over man-made islands and tall skyscrapers and cars made of platinum, Dubai is not purely glitz and glamour. Already, Dubai is one of the world’s biggest transport hubs. For example, the vast majority of all cars sold in the Middle East are transhipped via Dubai’s port at Jebel Ali. Its airport is the main stopover for planes from Europe to Asia and Australia. Its port authority, Dubai Ports World, may not have been allowed to run any US ports, but it is running, building or expanding more than 50 others across the globe.
In short, Dubai may have got a scratch in its shiny facade, and might just have to tone down its boisterous swagger, but it’ll be just fine. Indeed, most of the business that has now collapsed was part of a big bubble anyway, which had to burst at some point.
Having to take stock of what’s real and what’s not is one of the best things that has happened to the emirate. It would have been even better if this had occurred, say, three or four years ago, as back then much fewer companies and employees would have been affected. Now Dubai can concentrate on the sustainable industry sectors. And in not quite unrelated news, the quality of life will improve dramatically for the hundreds of thousands who still live here. Streets will be less congested, the air cleaner, and rent lower.
