Iraq’s Air Force won’t ready to maintain air sovereignty any
time in the foreseeable future, the experts said. Last year, the government
announced its intention of purchasing 18 F-16 Block 52 multi-role interceptors
in an effort to fast track its way to an effective air defense, but delivery
will only begin in 2013 and even this date is reportedly being pushed back,
they said
“I don’t think the US Air Force will be able to leave Iraq
for at least five years, as there’s no way that the Iraqis alone will be able
to deal with any kind of air threat for this period,” said Brig.-Gen. (ret.)
Musa Qallab, an independent defense expert and former program manager for Gulf
Cooperation Council Defense Issues Gulf Research Center in Dubai.
“But the probable threats are not imminent right now,”
Qallab told The Media Line.
The US has been working feverishly to bring the Iraqi
capabilities up to a level capable of patrolling its own airspace.
In just the past 12 months US airmen have doubled the number
of trained Iraqi airmen and helped field more than 130 fixed- and rotary-wing
aircraft for the Iraqi air force. These were mostly helicopters, transport
planes and some T-6 Texans. But, hobbled by a shrinking budget, the Iraqi Air
Force has delayed procurement programs, setting back its timetable for getting
fighter aircraft such as the Lockheed Martin F-16s, the first purchase of US
combat platforms in a $4.3 billion deal.
“This is a particularly important time in Iraq,” Daniel
Ginsberg, assistant secretary of the Air Force, was quoted as saying during a
visit to Baghdad this week, where he met with US airmen working to equip and
train the Iraqi Air Force. “Airmen, like you all, are stepping up to make sure
the mission gets done.”
Brig.-Gen. Jeffrey Buchanan, the top US military spokesman
in Iraq, recently said the Iraqi Air Force was ill equipped to maintain air
sovereignty alone.
“Their ability to defend their air space against air threats
is … not going be what they desire by the time” US forces leave, Defense News
quoted Buchanan as saying in December.
Iraqi airspace has reportedly been penetrated repeatedly in
recent years. Turkish aircraft have crossed into Iraqi airspace to strike at
Kurdish forces in the north. Israel has used Iraqi skies to practice attacking
Iran, Defense News reported. And, in March 2009, US forces shot down an Iranian
drone flying over Iraqi territory.
Still, according to Ayman Khalil, director of the Arab
Institute for Security Studies (ACSIS), Amman, there was no great threat
perception in Iraq from Iran.
“There is, actually, an Iranian influence when it comes to
the defense and intelligence bodies. And to an extent it is affecting the Iraqi
military doctrine,” Khalil told The Media Line.
“This Iranian ideology aims to lead the country out of any
US intervention but will also see the Iraqi government keep some high level
advisers” beyond the December 2011 troop withdrawal deadline, he said.
Under Operation New Dawn, nearly 50,000 US service members
in Iraq continue to conduct stability operations on the ground, focusing on
advising, assisting and training Iraqi security forces. But Iraqi Prime
Minister Nuri Al-Maliki said shortly after forming a new government that he
doesn’t want US troops to stay beyond 2011. Nevertheless, senior advisers are
expected to remain well after this date.
“Advisers are good for the Iraqis and the Iranians,” Khalil
said, adding that “any information sharing on military knowledge may find its
way to the Iranians.”
Khalil said the Iraqi Air Force under Saddam Hussein had
been one of the most capable in the Arab world, with advanced Soviet and French
aircraft that garnered vast combat experience in the lengthy war against Iran.
But most of the air force was sent to Iran during the first Gulf War and the
remainder were buried underground during the second Gulf War. Iran incorporated
those aircraft into its own air force.
Khalil said there then followed a “systematic elimination of
key air force officers.”
“On the streets of Baghdad, 25 key pilots were shot dead in
cold blood in the city. The brains behind the Iraqi Air Force are no longer
there,” he said.
Qallab, the retired general, said he believed the Americans
would likely maintain an air base in the Baghdad area despite the political complications.
“A main major base could defend Iraq partially, but it could
be supported by an aircraft carrier in the Gulf and air bases in Turkey and
eastern Jordan,” Qallab said.
“Iraq is planning to have at least four air bases; north,
south, near Baghdad and the western sector. But the United States doesn’t have
to wait until the Iraqi Air Force is built and equipped completely. They could
lease Iraq F-16s for this (transitional|) period until they gradually are able
to manage their own airspace,” Qallab said.