LAUNCESTON, Australia: Chinese oil demand this year is virtually certain to miss forecasts by the International Energy Agency and the country’s top producer.
Implied crude demand fell 5.1 percent to about 9.94 million barrels per day (bpd) in November from the same month a year earlier, but was 1.5 percent higher than in October and was also the most in five months.
However, the November figures take implied demand for the first 11 months of the year to about 9.76 million bpd, a gain of only 2.1 percent over the same period in 2012.
This is substantially below the IEA’s forecast for total demand of 10.19 million bpd in 2013 contained in the agency’s monthly report published Dec. 11.
It is also below the 10.28 million bpd forecast in January by top state oil company China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC).
Implied demand is calculated by adding net fuel imports to refinery throughput, but excludes changes in commercial and strategic inventories.
Inventories changes in volume terms aren’t disclosed by the authorities, although percentage changes for commercial stockpiles are reported monthly.
These have been declining in recent months, with refined product inventories dropping 6.08 percent in October from September, the fourth monthly decline.
Commercial crude inventories also declined 1.84 percent in October from a month earlier, but they had risen 10 percent over the prior two months.
But even if inventories are falling, they aren’t declining by enough to explain the difference between the implied demand and the forecasts by the IEA and CNPC.
It appears that demand growth in China has failed to live up to expectations, most likely because of weaker-than-expected economic growth in the middle of the year, the gradual shift to a more consumer-led economy and improving efficiencies.
Even a strong month of imports in December won’t be enough to lift overall implied oil demand to above 10 million bpd.
It appears that December’s imports will be around 5.65 million bpd, based on calculations by Thomson Reuters Oil Analytics.
This is higher than the 5.57 million bpd imports have averaged in the first 11 months of the year, but not dramatically so.
If domestic oil output is assumed to have held steady at the 4.15 million bpd it has averaged in the first 10 months of 2013, this means roughly 9.8 million bpd will be available for refining, excluding any draws on, or builds of, inventories.
Net fuel imports averaged about 226,000 bpd for the first 11 months, and assuming this is maintained for December, it implies that oil demand will be just over 10 million bpd for the month.
This is certainly stronger than the 9.76 million bpd average for the first 11 months, but will still keep the figure for the whole year below 10 million bpd, probably somewhere in the region of 9.8 million bpd.
This is roughly 400,000 bpd below the IEA’s forecast and 480,000 bpd short of CNPC’s.
If 2013 implied demand does come in around 9.8 million bpd, it would be only 1.4 percent higher than the 9.66 million bpd recorded for 2012, when demand rose 4.5 percent from the prior year, the slowest growth rate since 2008.
It would also provide a lower starting point for 2014 forecasts, meaning the IEA’s 10.57 million bpd estimate for demand next year would likely start off being optimistic.
What the numbers show is that oil demand growth in China is slowing, a trend that is likely to continue.
Instead of expanding at more than half the pace of economic growth as in the recent past, it seems likely that oil demand will increase at something closer to a quarter or third of gross domestic product growth.
This is a sign that the authorities’ plans to move China to a more consumer-led economy may be bearing some fruit, at least from an oil demand perspective.
It also means that global oil markets may have to factor in slower demand growth in China, which will have ramifications for the overall outlook, given that the IEA forecasts that the country will account for just under one-third of the total increase in world demand.
— Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.
China oil demand growth to miss forecasts
China oil demand growth to miss forecasts
Kingdom’s digital ‘leapfrog’: Intel executive VP highlights 20-year Saudi partnership
- Speaking on the sidelines of the WEF, Christoph Schell emphasized the Kingdom’s commitment to growth and its importance as a key market for Intel
- Says technology plays a crucial role in the Kingdom’s societal development, with a key focus on fostering innovation and bridging the digital divide
DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 has enabled the Kingdom to “leapfrog other countries,” creating a robust ecosystem that aligns with Intel’s digital transformation strategy, the company’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer told Arab News.
Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Christoph Schell emphasized the Kingdom’s commitment to growth and its importance as a key market for Intel, building on a 20-year legacy of collaboration.
“Having lived for eight years in the Middle East, I know that once you define a plan, and you work that plan, that plan will also work out,” Schell said. “So there’s a lot of trust that this vision will become reality.”
Schell, who previously served as HP’s general manager for the Middle East, described the region — and Saudi Arabia specifically — as being at an “exciting historical moment” in terms of technology, innovation and business, positioning the Kingdom as a “crucial market in size and influence.”
Intel has maintained a strong presence in Saudi Arabia for more than two decades, with its innovation and priorities evolving in response to the Kingdom’s changing needs.
“There’s a very long legacy that the Kingdom has of engaging with Intel and for the population of Saudi Arabia to actually use Intel in their daily lives. That’s true on the consumer side, but that’s also true for the large corporations,” Schell said.
“What I see happening for the first time is that the Saudi customers have been, over these 20 years of engagement, buying monolithic products that Intel had to offer. I think this industry is changing as such that we are talking more and more about custom solutions, custom chips, and these are the first (type of) engagements that we have with Saudi customers now, cross-customization.”
He attributed this shift to significant investments in digital infrastructure and the growing tech sophistication of Saudi consumers and businesses.
“I see Saudi not just consuming technology that is off the shelf, but to demand technology that is best in the very specific requirements that you have,” he said.
Highlighting examples, Schell said that Saudi Arabia’s extreme temperatures had led to customized design requests for products operating in harsh conditions, such as on oil platforms and in peak summer heat.
“That requires different design principles across different products. And that’s the opportunity for us,” he said.
In January 2024, Intel announced a partnership with Aramco Digital to establish Saudi Arabia’s first Open RAN (radio access network) development center. Open RAN technology, which allows multiple service providers to deliver services over the same network infrastructure, is expected to accelerate innovation and drive the Kingdom’s digital transformation in line with Vision 2030.
“If you want to scale a data center, if you want to grow a data center, if you want to grow a cloud operation, getting access to power is super important,” he said.
“Obviously the Kingdom has a lot of power, but on the other hand, it is also demanding for that power to be delivered in the most efficient way, and for the computer to be cognizant of power not being there in abundance, but to be managed in a way that is responsible.”
Schell argued that this evolution is a consequence of the cultural and societal shifts in Saudi Arabia, emphasizing the country’s focus on innovation and bridging the digital divide.
“Technologies (are) at the heart of societal development. And I think a lot of the goals that you have as a society is to innovate, is to make sure that there’s no digital divide within the country,” he said.
As part of its vision for the future, Saudi Arabia is prioritizing the development of a robust tech ecosystem by attracting manufacturers, creating jobs and nurturing local talent — a strategy that Schell described as “sustainable.”
“It has a lot to do with education, but I think beyond educating, the ability to design products together, to engineer products together, is something that needs to start, in particular, working together with select universities,” he said.
Schell emphasized the role of AI in shaping the Kingdom’s future, particularly in practical applications such as education and daily life.
“The output that an AI engine delivers is based on the model it uses. And I think what is very important for Saudi Arabia in this context is to have models that have cultural awareness, that have cultural content.”
Drawing on his own experience, Schell highlighted the importance of localization.
“I live in the US right now. I’m German. If I use a US model, a US-centric model, I will get US-centric answers. (While) If I use a Saudi-centric model, I will get Saudi-centric answers.
“This is very important from a culture and from a historic point of view,” he added, stressing the “government’s responsibilities” in fostering an ecosystem that supports culturally relevant AI.
Global Collaboration Village: Redefining engagement with Next-Gen AR and VR at Davos
- This year’s debut of Next-Gen AR at Davos has focused on collecting feedback to refine the platform
DAVOS: The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration Village is using augmented reality and virtual reality technologies to tackle some of the world’s most pressing issues, the president of the initiative told Arab News.
Its Next-Gen platform, developed in partnership with Accenture and powered by Microsoft Mesh, debuted at the WEF annual meeting in Davos this week, and Chieh Huang said that it aimed to extend the collaborative impact of Davos beyond the annual meeting by creating a virtual space that fostered engagement year-round.
He said: “So we often get the question, well, what is the Global Collaboration Village? We’re here in Davos — isn’t this the global collaboration village? And in some sense, yes, it is.”
He continued: “But as Davos and our annual meeting gets more crowded, we want to see if there are ways for us to extend impact throughout the world, 365 days a year.”
This year’s debut of Next-Gen AR at Davos has focused on collecting feedback to refine the platform.
“This is a platform in which we want to stoke more conversation between public entities and private entities,” Huang said. “As you build a platform and any technology product, you want to hear the feedback of, well, what worked well, what didn’t work well. And what better way to do that than here (at the annual meeting), where all of our constituents and users are here.”
Huang emphasized the importance of user input in shaping the experience.
“The graphics are higher fidelity, they’re photorealistic,” he said. “We’re mixing virtual reality in some cases where we want to transport you to a location, but other times we just want to sit around a table, visualize a 3D object, and say, ‘Hey, have you noticed this thing?’ or, ‘Have you noticed that thing?’ Using augmented reality when it’s apropos.”
Feedback so far has been overwhelmingly positive. “The most-used term this week has been: Wow,” Huang said. “When you see the state-of-the-art hardware and software these days, it is a wow moment.”
The tech offers an alternative to traditional 2D communication platforms such as Zoom or PowerPoint by immersing users in a 3D environment.
“If you talk to anyone that’s ever been in an immersive environment, it changes your perception,” Huang explained. “Through that immersiveness, there is a higher level of engagement.”
The platform also aims for inclusivity and device-neutrality. “Next-Gen is available not only with Meta devices but Apple’s Pro as well, and in the future, we want to add more devices onto that as well,” Huang said.
One example of the platform’s potential lies in its use by Saudi Arabia at this year’s WEF to showcase the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 initiative.
“From the outside, I don’t live in Saudi Arabia, I don’t live in the region. It might seem very foreign to say, ‘Hey, there’s this Vision 2030, where they’re trying to transform an entire country and society,’” Huang said.
“You can send around leaflets, you can watch that on YouTube, or maybe get a PowerPoint, but will that actually show and demonstrate what’s really going on? You could say nothing can replace going there. But is there an in-between? That’s where the Global Collaboration Village can shine,” he said.
The GCV mission is clear; to foster collaboration, spark innovation and enable participants to visualize solutions in transformative ways.
Huang concluded: “We want this platform to be a space where global solutions can be visualized, tested and realized — ultimately shaping a better future for all.”
Middle East’s rise to becoming global aviation hub ‘absolutely incredible,’ Menzies chairman says
- Hassan El-Houry says aviation vital for global, domestic economies
- Forecasts 300% growth over 10 years, $200bn investment in airports
DAVOS: The Middle East’s rise as a global aviation hub has been “absolutely incredible” and should be a source of pride, according to Hassan El-Houry, chairman at Menzies Aviation.
Speaking to Arab News recently at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, El-Houry said the region’s aviation growth over the past two decades demonstrates that “the impossible is possible.”
“In 20 years the Middle East has become an absolute hub for aviation. It’s absolutely incredible. It really makes us proud.”
He added: “The Middle East started from a very low base. If you go back 20 years, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Saudi Arabia — they were not transit hubs.
“I remember traveling to London or Europe or East Asia, and in hotels, you’d see four clocks — San Francisco, New York, London and Tokyo. Today, there’s one in the middle: Dubai. Finally, the Middle East is now seen as a hub, and it’s great.”
Looking ahead, he said the projections for the region were positive. “We’re forecasting 300 percent growth over the next 10 years in aviation and almost $200 billion in investment in airports.
“This outpaces any other region. It’s absolutely incredible what we’re going to see over the next five (to) 10 years for the Middle East, particularly the GCC,” he said.
And globally, he said the outlook was similarly bright, while reflecting on the unprecedented challenges the industry faced during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“That shows two things: first, we’ve fully recovered from COVID-19, which is great, and second, it shows the resilience of the aviation sector,” he said.
“We had literally the largest and most impactful crisis, which challenged the aviation sector. We lost a lot of people who worked in aviation — they sought jobs elsewhere, and rightfully so. A lot of investment went elsewhere,” he added.
Despite these setbacks, El-Houry emphasized aviation’s crucial role in the global economy and its ability to connect people. “Governments were asking themselves, why should we invest in aviation when it’s so sensitive to shocks?
“What we can see now is that aviation is resilient and is absolutely critical to the global economy, to domestic economies, for people. Connectivity matters. People want to connect, people want to see each other.
“Just look around here at WEF in Davos — not a single person is wearing a mask. That just shows that people want the human connection, and aviation’s resilience makes that happen,” he said.
While optimistic about global and regional progress, El-Houry expressed some concerns. “One region which has not fully recovered is Africa, which has been struggling for many reasons — debt, inflation, some geopolitical issues, and lack of investment,” he said.
“Africans make up 17 percent of the world’s population but only 2 percent of the world’s travelers, a statistic that has remained unchanged in the past 10 years. I’d love to see Africa bridge that gap and develop.”
He called for greater investment and attention to the continent, highlighting the potential of aviation to unlock economic and social opportunities.
El-Houry concluded with a clear message for world leaders that aviation must be treated as an economic priority. “Aviation is no longer a privilege for the 1 percent. It’s super important for everybody across the socio-economic spectrum.”
“In the past, governments used to look at aviation as another way of taxing the 1 percent. Today, aviation is important for education, for healthcare, for family connections, for trade — everything.
“So, let’s make sure that aviation remains a priority, a pillar of the economy, and super important for economic growth,” he urged.
Saudi Arabia seeing steady growth in non-oil economy says economy minister
DAVOS: Saudi Arabia is seeing steady growth in the non-oil economy, said Saudi Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim in Davos on Friday.
Alibrahim called for action-oriented leadership in global economies and said that Saudi Vision 2030 was an example of a strong campaign led by bold leadership that developed solutions for economic problems.
“Vision 2030 is a long-term campaign in order to restructure the economy. We care about the non-oil economy, it currently represents 52 percent of the GDP for the first time,” he said.
Alibrahim said that the Kingdom expected to close 2024 with 3.9 percent growth in the non-oil economy.
He followed up by saying 2025 was predicted to see 4.8 percent growth, and by 2026 growth would equate to 6.2 percent.
Alibrahim commented on the longstanding friendship between the Kingdom and the US.
“Saudi Arabia’s position is to have a strong partnership with all its partners and friends. Tariffs have been used as a tool in the economy when they are for an objective and time bound. Tariffs can help create a competitive environment so local industries can start,” he said.
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said that Saudi Arabia had the right strategy when dealing with tariffs.
“Trade among politically aligned countries is higher. But countries that are friends with everybody perform the best,” Georgieva said.
Alibrahim ended the session by announcing a regular world economic global forum meeting in the Kingdom set to be held in the spring of 2026.
Emirates airline to resume flights to Beirut
DUBAI: Emirates airline will resume flights to Beirut on Feb. 1 after a four-month suspension triggered by conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, a statement said on Friday.
The Middle East’s biggest airline will first offer a daily return flight and scale up to two services per day from April 1, the statement said.
Emirates will also resume a daily flight to the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, from Feb.1, it added.
The Dubai-based, state-owned carrier was one of several regional airlines to suspend Beirut services in late September as tensions soared between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah.
A truce came into effect on November 27, ending over a year of hostilities.
