LAUNCESTON, Australia: Chinese oil demand this year is virtually certain to miss forecasts by the International Energy Agency and the country’s top producer.
Implied crude demand fell 5.1 percent to about 9.94 million barrels per day (bpd) in November from the same month a year earlier, but was 1.5 percent higher than in October and was also the most in five months.
However, the November figures take implied demand for the first 11 months of the year to about 9.76 million bpd, a gain of only 2.1 percent over the same period in 2012.
This is substantially below the IEA’s forecast for total demand of 10.19 million bpd in 2013 contained in the agency’s monthly report published Dec. 11.
It is also below the 10.28 million bpd forecast in January by top state oil company China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC).
Implied demand is calculated by adding net fuel imports to refinery throughput, but excludes changes in commercial and strategic inventories.
Inventories changes in volume terms aren’t disclosed by the authorities, although percentage changes for commercial stockpiles are reported monthly.
These have been declining in recent months, with refined product inventories dropping 6.08 percent in October from September, the fourth monthly decline.
Commercial crude inventories also declined 1.84 percent in October from a month earlier, but they had risen 10 percent over the prior two months.
But even if inventories are falling, they aren’t declining by enough to explain the difference between the implied demand and the forecasts by the IEA and CNPC.
It appears that demand growth in China has failed to live up to expectations, most likely because of weaker-than-expected economic growth in the middle of the year, the gradual shift to a more consumer-led economy and improving efficiencies.
Even a strong month of imports in December won’t be enough to lift overall implied oil demand to above 10 million bpd.
It appears that December’s imports will be around 5.65 million bpd, based on calculations by Thomson Reuters Oil Analytics.
This is higher than the 5.57 million bpd imports have averaged in the first 11 months of the year, but not dramatically so.
If domestic oil output is assumed to have held steady at the 4.15 million bpd it has averaged in the first 10 months of 2013, this means roughly 9.8 million bpd will be available for refining, excluding any draws on, or builds of, inventories.
Net fuel imports averaged about 226,000 bpd for the first 11 months, and assuming this is maintained for December, it implies that oil demand will be just over 10 million bpd for the month.
This is certainly stronger than the 9.76 million bpd average for the first 11 months, but will still keep the figure for the whole year below 10 million bpd, probably somewhere in the region of 9.8 million bpd.
This is roughly 400,000 bpd below the IEA’s forecast and 480,000 bpd short of CNPC’s.
If 2013 implied demand does come in around 9.8 million bpd, it would be only 1.4 percent higher than the 9.66 million bpd recorded for 2012, when demand rose 4.5 percent from the prior year, the slowest growth rate since 2008.
It would also provide a lower starting point for 2014 forecasts, meaning the IEA’s 10.57 million bpd estimate for demand next year would likely start off being optimistic.
What the numbers show is that oil demand growth in China is slowing, a trend that is likely to continue.
Instead of expanding at more than half the pace of economic growth as in the recent past, it seems likely that oil demand will increase at something closer to a quarter or third of gross domestic product growth.
This is a sign that the authorities’ plans to move China to a more consumer-led economy may be bearing some fruit, at least from an oil demand perspective.
It also means that global oil markets may have to factor in slower demand growth in China, which will have ramifications for the overall outlook, given that the IEA forecasts that the country will account for just under one-third of the total increase in world demand.
— Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.
China oil demand growth to miss forecasts
China oil demand growth to miss forecasts
New center positions Saudi Arabia for advanced manufacturing leadership
- Integrated initiatives aim to enhance industrial productivity and efficiency
- Center brings together programs and initiatives that enable the adoption of modern manufacturing technologies
RIYADH: The global industrial sector is witnessing a radical transformation toward adopting Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies, prompting countries to reconsider traditional manufacturing methods and adopt smart solutions that include automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and data-driven systems to improve production efficiency and reduce operational costs.
According to the Saudi Press Agency, the Kingdom is not only keeping pace with the global industrial transformation but also aims to lead it through strategic initiatives and specialized programs that promote smart industry practices and accelerate the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies.
This will enhance the competitiveness of Saudi Arabia’s industrial sector both regionally and globally, aligning with the goals of Vision 2030 and the National Industrial Strategy to position the Kingdom as a leading industrial power, one that supports global supply chains and exports high-tech products globally.
The Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources is undertaking this ambitious transformation by establishing an integrated and comprehensive national system to enhance advanced manufacturing, according to SPA.
It has launched the Advanced Manufacturing and Production Center, which brings together all programs and initiatives that enable the adoption of modern manufacturing technologies and stimulate smart and innovative industrial solutions.
This initiative is in cooperation with various government entities related to the technology, research, and innovation sectors and in partnership with several global leaders in industrial technology.
The efforts under the Advanced Manufacturing and Production Center include the Future Factories Program Initiative, the Industrial Beacons Program, the Accelerated Manufacturing Program, the Capability Centers Network, and the Operational Excellence Program, reported SPA.
These initiatives collectively support the center’s vision of becoming a unified national platform that accelerates the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies. They also serve as a bridge to help local manufacturers access cutting-edge solutions that improve efficiency, enhance quality, and reduce costs across the industrial sector.
The center aims to boost productivity and competitiveness in the manufacturing sector by localizing advanced and sustainable technologies, creating an attractive environment for industrial investment, and supporting skill development through its Capability Centers Network. It also offers experiential learning opportunities and provides advisory services to help industrial establishments adopt advanced manufacturing practices.
The efforts of the ministry are aligned with several government entities that support the center’s vision and objectives.
In 2022, the ministry launched the Future Factories initiative to support the smart transformation journey of industrial establishments, aiming to automate 4,000 Saudi factories and increase their production efficiency, reduce reliance on unskilled labor, and promote the adoption of advanced industrial solutions and practices.
The initiative offers numerous incentives and enablers to support the digital transformation of national factories, including financing solutions, consulting services, and the development and qualification of human resources to leverage the latest manufacturing technologies.
It also helps industrial establishments assess their technological maturity and develop transformation plans to adopt operational excellence practices and advanced manufacturing solutions, including AI, robotics, the Internet of Things, and big data analytics.
To support industrial transformation in the Kingdom and achieve global leadership in adopting advanced manufacturing technologies, the ministry launched the Industrial Beacons program.
This undertaking aims to enable leading Saudi factories to adopt Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies, thereby enhancing their production efficiency and qualifying them to receive international recognition within the Global Lighthouse Network, an affiliate of the World Economic Forum, by 2030.
During the launch ceremony of the Advanced Manufacturing and Production Center, the Ministry announced 10 national industrial companies that committed to achieving the standards of the Industrial Beacons initiative.
With the launch of the Advanced Manufacturing and Production Center and its targeted initiatives to promote advanced technologies and foster research and innovation in the industrial sector, the Kingdom signals that its ambitions extend beyond simply keeping pace with global industrial trends.
Global production of sustainable aviation fuel to reach 2m tonnes in 2025: IATA
- Ensuring success of Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation is crucial, says IATA head
- Sufficient government measures needed to meet decarbonization efforts, Willie Walsh added
RIYADH: Global sustainable aviation fuel production is expected to double to reach 2 million tonnes in 2025 compared to the previous year, according to the International Air Transport Association.
In a press statement issued during IATA’s Annual General Meeting, Director General Willie Walsh noted that the projected 2 million tonnes of SAF will account for just 0.7 percent of total fuel consumption this year.
The use of SAF has been increasingly prominent in recent years, as most countries have set stipulated targets to achieve net zero as part of their energy transition efforts.
“While it is encouraging that SAF production is expected to double to 2 million tonnes in 2025, that is just 0.7 percent of aviation’s total fuel needs,” said Walsh.
He added: “And even that relatively small amount will add $4.4 billion globally to the fuel bill. The pace of progress in ramping up production and gaining efficiencies to reduce costs must accelerate.”
The IATA official further stated that sufficient government measures, including the implementation of effective policies, are needed to meet decarbonization efforts.
He added that ensuring the success of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation is crucial to offsetting carbon emissions in the aviation sector.
Under CORSIA, an initiative launched by the International Civil Aviation Organization, airplane operators must purchase and cancel “emissions units” to offset the increase in CO2 emissions.
“Advancing SAF production requires an increase in renewable energy production from which SAF is derived. Secondly, it also requires policies to ensure SAF is allocated an appropriate portion of renewable energy production,” said IATA in the statement.
In a separate statement, IATA said that $1.3 billion in airline funds are blocked from repatriation by governments as of the end of April.
The industry body, however, noted that this figure also represents a 25 percent improvement compared to the $1.7 billion reported for October.
The aviation body also urged governments to remove all barriers preventing airlines from the timely repatriation of their revenues from ticket sales and other activities in accordance with international agreements and treaty obligations.
“Ensuring the timely repatriation of revenues is vital for airlines to cover dollar-denominated expenses and maintain their operations. Delays and denials violate bilateral agreements and increase exchange rate risks,” said Walsh.
He added: “Economies and jobs rely on international connectivity. Governments must realize that it is a challenge for airlines to maintain connectivity when revenue repatriation is denied or delayed.”
Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 10,825
- MSCI Tadawul Index decreased 21.69 points to close at 1,382.11
- Parallel market Nomu lost 140.52 points to end at 26,669.23
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index dipped on Sunday, losing 165.14 points, or 1.50 percent, to close at 10,825.27.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR4.27 billion ($1.13 billion), as 31 of the listed stocks advanced, while 215 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index decreased by 21.69 points, or 1.55 percent, to close at 1,382.11.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu dipped, losing 140.52 points, or 0.52 percent, to close at 26,669.23. This comes as 20 of the listed stocks advanced while 61 retreated.
The best-performing stock was Emaar The Economic City, with its share price surging 3.91 percent to SR13.28.
Other top performers included Sinad Holding Co., which saw its share price rise by 2.56 percent to SR10.42, and Alkhaleej Training and Education Co., which saw a 2.22 percent increase to SR25.35.
The shares of Al Yamamah Steel Industries Co. and Morabaha Marina Financing Co. also rose by 2.19 percent and 1.85 percent to SR30.30 and SR11, respectively.
On the downside, United Carton Industries Co. was the day’s weakest performer, with its share price declining 9.31 percent to SR40.90.
Raydan Food Co. and Makkah Construction and Development Co. also saw declines, with their shares dropping by 8.04 percent and 7.02 percent to SR13.50 and SR90, respectively.
Moreover, the shares of Gulf Insurance Group and Saudi Fisheries Co. dipped by 6.54 percent and 5.94 percent to SR24.02 and SR95, respectively.
On the parallel market, Digital Research Co. led the gains, with its share price rising 13.02 percent to SR59.90.
Future Care Trading Co. and Saudi Parts Center Co. also saw a positive change, with their shares increasing by 9.32 percent and 7.14 percent to SR3.52 and SR45, respectively.
Conversely, Amwaj International Co. was the weakest performer on Nomu, with its share price falling 9.78 percent to close at SR36.90.
Fad International Co. and Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars Co. followed with decreases of 9.42 percent and 9.26 percent to SR76 and SR2.45, respectively.
Madinah leads regional growth with 24% construction employment in Q1
- Construction continued to dominate amid a surge in infrastructure projects
- Wholesale, retail trade, and vehicle maintenance sector accounted for 20% of workforce
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Madinah region recorded strong first quarter growth in 2025, led by 24 percent workforce participation in construction and 20 percent in trade, signaling diversification momentum.
A recent report by the Madinah Chamber of Commerce outlines the region’s sectoral distribution, with construction continuing to dominate amid a surge in infrastructure projects, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
The wholesale, retail trade, and vehicle maintenance sector, which accounted for 20 percent of the workforce, continued to thrive, demonstrating strong commercial activity and consumer demand. This segment’s high employment rate underscores Madinah’s role as a regional trading hub.
The manufacturing sector, representing 12 percent of the workforce, showed growth that indicates the emergence of a stronger industrial base, contributing to economic diversification and reducing reliance on oil-related industries.
Tourism, with an 11.2 percent workforce share, remained a key sector for Madinah as a destination for religious tourism, benefiting from a steady influx of pilgrims. The sector’s workforce expansion aligns with increased investment in hospitality, transportation, and tourism-related services, the SPA report added.
The chairman of the chamber, Mazen bin Ibrahim Rajab, emphasized the focus on improving the business environment by leveraging Madinah’s economic strengths and investment opportunities.
The report situated Madinah’s growth within broader economic trends. In 2024, the worldwide economic growth reached 3.2 percent, supported by a rebound in foreign direct investment, while inflation declined to 4.5 percent, signaling improving economic stability.
The Kingdom’s gross domestic product grew by 4.4 percent in 2024, with non-oil sectors expanding by 5.9 percent. Madinah contributed significantly to this trend, recording a 2.8 percent increase in its GDP, reaching SR57.6 billion ($15.3 billion) in the third quarter of 2024.
The report showed that Madinah recorded the second-highest domestic demand growth in Saudi Arabia at 11 percent, trailing only Riyadh.
Additionally, foreign direct investment in the Kingdom surged by 36.6 percent in the third quarter 2024, reaching SR16 billion, with Madinah attracting a notable share due to its expanding industrial and commercial opportunities.
The report also highlighted Madinah’s booming real estate and infrastructure sectors with property transactions in 2024 totaling SR10 billion, reflecting strong investor confidence.
The job market improved significantly, with unemployment dropping from 10.3 percent in the third quarter of 2024 to 8.4 percent in the following three-month period, thanks to new employment opportunities across key sectors.
A total of 213 development projects, valued at over SR210 billion, are currently in progress, according to the report. These include 153 commercial projects, 27 mixed-use residential and commercial developments and other projects in healthcare, education, tourism, and religious infrastructure.
These initiatives are expected to generate more than 119,000 jobs, further boosting Madinah’s economic prospects.
Saudi Arabia opens June round of Sah savings sukuk with 4.76% return
- Sah is Kingdom’s first savings-focused sukuk designed for individual investors
- Bonds structured for one-year term with fixed returns, profits to be paid at maturity
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has opened the June subscription window for its savings sukuk product “Sah,” offering a return rate of 4.76 percent, as part of its 2025 issuance calendar.
Organized by the National Debt Management Center under the Ministry of Finance, Sah is the Kingdom’s first savings-focused sukuk designed for individual investors.
The Shariah-compliant, riyal-denominated product is part of the local bonds program aimed at fostering financial inclusion and increasing personal savings.
The June issuance opened for subscription from 10 a.m. on Sunday, June 1, until 3 p.m. on Tuesday, June 3.
The bonds are structured for a one-year term with fixed returns, and profits will be paid at maturity.
The minimum subscription is set at one bond with a value of SR1,000 ($266.56), while the maximum subscription per investor is capped at SR200,000.
The product aligns with the Financial Sector Development Program under Saudi Vision 2030, which targets raising the national savings rate from 6 percent to 10 percent by 2030.
The June issuance of Sah offers a slightly higher return compared to May, rising to 4.76 percent from the previous month’s 4.66 percent, reflecting marginal shifts in market conditions.
While both issuances maintain the same structure — Shariah-compliant, riyal-denominated sukuk with a one-year maturity and fixed returns — the June window opened slightly earlier in the month, running from June 1 to June 3, compared to May’s window from May 4 to May 6.
Subscription terms remain unchanged, with a minimum investment of SR1,000 and a cap of SR200,000 per individual.
Both offerings are accessible through the same network of approved financial institutions.
Sah is promoted as a secure, fee-free savings instrument offering stable, government-backed returns.
Eligible investors must be Saudi nationals aged 18 and above and must subscribe through approved platforms provided by SNB Capital, Aljazira Capital, and Alinma Investment, as well as SAB Invest, or Al-Rajhi Capital.
The sukuk is issued monthly, and the return rate for each tranche is determined based on prevailing market conditions.
NDMC CEO Hani Al-Medaini said in March that the sukuk serves as a catalyst for private sector cooperation and participation in developing and launching various savings products tailored to diverse demographics.
These initiatives could involve partnerships with banks, fund managers, financial technology companies, and more.
