BRUSSELS: Theresa May’s insistence on starting Brexit negotiations next Monday is questioned by Britons who think the prime minister’s calamitous election setback means she should now seek to stay in the EU single market.
However, in the year since Britain voted to leave the EU, the other 27 EU states have hardened their common position and narrowed British options for avoiding a “hard Brexit.”
The following scenarios touch on what may happen now voters have dashed May’s hopes for a bigger majority to negotiate and left her dependent on pro-Brexit Ulster Protestants and on political rivals reportedly eyeing their moment to oust her.
1. HARD, SMOOTH BREXIT
May, a former supporter of EU membership, filed for divorce in March, meaning Britain would leave the single market and customs union and end EU court oversight, EU budget payments and free migration from the EU to Britain.
After a transition period, May wants an EU-UK free trade pact.
Under Article 50 of the EU treaty, Britain will no longer be a member on March 30, 2019, whether or not the two sides agree a deal to avoid leaving businesses and citizens in a legal limbo.
The EU priority is “damage control” by limiting the economic disruption and saving the Union. That would curb discord and any further breakaways by showing Britain was no better off out.
EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has instructions to seek a deal that preserves the rights of 3 million EU citizens in Britain, recovers money owed by London (possibly $65 billion) and limits any damage to Irish peace from a “hard” EU-UK land border.
If “significant progress” is made on that, EU leaders may then open talks on a transition to a free trade agreement.
In this ideal scenario for Brussels, the outline divorce is set by the end of this year, agreed in full by late 2018 and ratified by lawmakers by March 2019.
There would then be several years of transition to a new treaty, even deeper than a trade pact with Canada, plus close cooperation on security and science.
BUT... Brussels hoped May would win a big majority to help her sell compromises needed for this scenario. Some EU officials now doubt she can remain in power if she accepts too many European demands.
2. HARD BREXIT WITH NO DEAL
May has said “no deal is better than a bad deal.”
BUT... EU leaders think she is bluffing because no deal would spell economic and legal chaos. Yet EU officials have grown increasingly worried that both sides may box themselves in, with little time left.
Before the election, May and her ministers said they would not pay the EU billions on leaving and want trade talks now. Barnier, meanwhile, cannot stray from his mandate without a new, unanimous agreement of the 27.
While neither side of the negotiations wants potentially chaotic limbo, a breakdown could leave both with a messy and unpopular last-minute fix.
3. NO BREXIT
A year ago, 48 percent of Britons voted to stay in the EU, including most lawmakers from the main parties, most Scots and most in Northern Ireland. Some still cling to the hope of the Brexit process being reversed.
BUT...That hope seems forlorn now that both big British parties now accept Brexit, as does Brussels.
First, Britain would need a new government which wants to stop it. Neither a Conservative party coup against May nor a left-wing coalition led by Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour, possibly after a new election, seems likely to deliver that.
Second, it would have to overturn a British legal opinion that the request to leave under Article 50 cannot be revoked.
Third, it would need the EU to agree, most likely by unanimous vote of all 27. And it might mean taking time for another British referendum.
Formally, EU leaders insist they would rather Britain not leave. But the prevailing view in private is that the Union is safer without a big member that has always been lukewarm on the project and is now so divided as to be unreliable.
4. LATE BREXIT
Political chaos in Britain has prompted calls for more time to negotiate, possibly on different terms from those May has sought. Article 50 allows for an extension to the two-year deadline if the other states unanimously agree.
BUT...EU leaders will hesitate to open a divisive issue among them and want Britain out before European Parliament elections in May 2019. The two-year deadline is designed to weaken the leavers’ hand.
5. ENGLISH BREXIT
Scotland’s government wants a special deal to stay in the single market or, if not, to secede and stay in or rejoin the EU.
Ireland’s EU commissioner has espoused the idea of keeping Northern Ireland in the EU customs union. May’s unionist allies in the province also want to avoid a hard border.
BUT...On Scotland, May and the EU doubt a “differentiated deal” on trade and migration can work, while Spain, battling Catalan separatists, may block it. Electoral losses for the Scottish nationalists have also weakened their hand to threaten a new independence vote.
On Ireland, such a scenario appears hugely complicated without raising some form of trade barriers between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. That would be anathema to the hard-line Protestant DUP.
6. SOFT BREXIT
This could be the key battleground in the coming months.
Many Brexit opponents suggest that, if it goes ahead, Britain should at least stay in the single market for the sake of jobs and trade.
BUT...While EU leaders do not rule that out, they have set tough conditions similar to those imposed on Norway, which can access EU markets in return for cash contributions, taking EU migrants as well as refugees and observing rules overseen by EU courts.
Such terms are far from what Brexit supporters want and also rob Britain of its big say on EU policy.
And Europeans, as well as May, rule out “cherry picking” deals that give Britain access to certain EU markets, like banking. EU leaders say that would risk undermining the whole single market.
British proponents of soft Brexit say the EU, especially big exporters to Britain, could be persuaded. But the bloc seems for now committed to not breaking ranks. So talks on “soft Brexit” could be a waste of time.
In October, EU summit chair Donald Tusk said: “The only real alternative to a ‘hard Brexit’ is ‘no Brexit’.” Pushing soft Brexit over hard is seen increasing the risk of replacing a smooth Brexit with rough.
Chance of smooth Brexit fades after British election chaos
Chance of smooth Brexit fades after British election chaos
32 killed in new sectarian violence in Pakistan
- Senior police officer said Saturday armed men torched shops, houses and government property overnight
- Although the two groups generally live together peacefully, tensions remain, especially in Kurram
PESHAWAR, Pakistan: At least 32 people were killed and 47 wounded in sectarian clashes in northwest Pakistan, an official said on Saturday, two days after attacks on Shiite passenger convoys killed 43.
Sporadic fighting between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in the mountainous Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan has killed around 150 over the past months.
“Fighting between Shiite and Sunni communities continues at multiple locations. According to the latest reports, 32 people have been killed which include 14 Sunnis and 18 Shiites,” a senior administrative official said on condition of anonymity on Saturday.
On Thursday, gunmen opened fire on two separate convoys of Shiite Muslims traveling with police escort in Kurram, killing 43 while 11 wounded are still in “critical condition,” officials told AFP.
In retaliation Shiite Muslims on Friday evening attacked several Sunni locations in the Kurram district, once a semi-autonomous region, where sectarian violence has resulted in the deaths of hundreds over the years.
“Around 7 p.m. (1400 GMT), a group of enraged Shiite individuals attacked the Sunni-dominated Bagan Bazaar,” a senior police officer stationed in Kurram said.
“After firing, they set the entire market ablaze and entered nearby homes, pouring petrol and setting them on fire. Initial reports suggest over 300 shops and more than 100 houses have been burned,” he said.
Local Sunnis “also fired back at the attackers,” he added.
Javedullah Mehsud, a senior official in Kurram said there were “efforts to restore peace ... (through) the deployment of security forces” and with the help of “local elders.”
After Thursday’s attacks that killed 43, including seven women and three children, thousands of Shiite Muslims took to the streets in various cities of Pakistan on Friday.
Several hundred people demonstrated in Lahore, Pakistan’s second city and Karachi, the country’s commercial hub.
In Parachinar, the main town of Kurram district, thousands participated in a sit-in, while hundreds attended the funerals of the victims, mainly Shiite civilians.
Tribal and family feuds are common in Sunni-majority Pakistan, where the Shiite community has long suffered discrimination and violence.
The latest violence drew condemnation from officials and human rights groups.
The independent Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) urged authorities this month to pay “urgent attention” to the “alarming frequency of clashes” in the region, warning that the situation has escalated to “the proportions of a humanitarian crisis.”
“The fact that local rival groups clearly have access to heavy weaponry indicates that the state has been unable to control the flow of arms into the region,” HRCP said in a statement.
Last month, at least 16 people, including three women and two children, were killed in a sectarian clash in the district.
Previous clashes in July and September killed dozens of people and ended only after a jirga, or tribal council, called a ceasefire. HRCP said 79 people died between July and October in sectarian violences
These clashes and attacks come just days after at least 20 soldiers were killed in separate incidents in the province.
Pakistan locks down capital ahead of a planned rally by Imran Khan supporters
- Interior Ministry is considering a suspension of mobile phone services in parts of Pakistan in the coming days
- Pakistan has banned gatherings of five or more people in Islamabad for two months to deter Khan’s supporters
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is sealing off its capital, Islamabad, ahead of a planned rally by supporters of imprisoned former premier Imran Khan.
It’s the second time in as many months that authorities have imposed such measures to thwart tens of thousands of people from gathering in the city to demand Khan’s release.
The latest lockdown coincides with the visit of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who arrives in Islamabad on Monday.
Local media reported that the Interior Ministry is considering a suspension of mobile phone services in parts of Pakistan in the coming days. On Friday, the National Highways and Motorway Police announced that key routes would close for maintenance.
It advised people to avoid unnecessary travel and said the decision was taken following intelligence reports that “angry protesters” are planning to create a law and order situation and damage public and private property on Sunday, the day of the planned rally.
“There are reports that protesters are coming with sticks and slingshots,” the statement added.
Multicolored shipping containers, a familiar sight to people living and working in Islamabad, reappeared on key roads Saturday to throttle traffic.
Pakistan has already banned gatherings of five or more people in Islamabad for two months to deter Khan’s supporters and activists from his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, or PTI.
Khan has been in prison for more than a year in connection and has over 150 criminal cases against him. But he remains popular and the PTI says the cases are politically motivated.
A three-day shutdown was imposed in Islamabad for a security summit last month.
Indian man awakes on funeral pyre
- Doctors sent Rohitash Kumar, 25, to mortuary instead of conducting postmortem after he fell ill
- Kumar was rushed to hospital on Friday for treatment but was confirmed dead later
JAIPUR: An Indian man awoke on a funeral pyre moments before it was to be set on fire after a doctor skipped a postmortem, medical officials said Saturday.
Rohitash Kumar, 25, who had speaking and hearing difficulties, had fallen sick and was taken to a hospital in Jhunjhunu in the western state of Rajasthan on Thursday.
Indian media reported he had had an epileptic seizure, and a doctor declared him dead on arrival at the hospital.
But instead of the required postmortem to ascertain the cause of death, doctors sent him to the mortuary, and then to be burned according to Hindu rites.
D. Singh, chief medical officer of the hospital, told AFP that a doctor had “prepared the postmortem report without actually doing the postmortem, and the body was then sent for cremation.”
Singh said that “shortly before the pyre was to be lit, Rohitash’s body started movements,” adding that “he was alive and was breathing.”
Kumar was rushed to hospital for a second time, but was confirmed dead on Friday during treatment.
Authorities have suspended the services of three doctors and the police have launched an investigation.
NATO chief discusses ‘global security’ with Trump
- NATO allies say keeping Kyiv in the fight against Moscow is key to both European and American security
Brussels: NATO chief Mark Rutte held talks with US President-elect Donald Trump in Florida on the “global security issues facing the alliance,” a spokeswoman said Saturday.
The meeting took place on Friday in Palm Beach, NATO’s Farah Dakhlallah said in a statement.
In his first term Trump aggressively pushed Europe to step up defense spending and questioned the fairness of the NATO transatlantic alliance.
The former Dutch prime minister had said he wanted to meet Trump two days after Trump was elected on November 5, and discuss the threat of increasingly warming ties between North Korea and Russia.
Trump’s thumping victory to return to the US presidency has set nerves jangling in Europe that he could pull the plug on vital Washington military aid for Ukraine.
NATO allies say keeping Kyiv in the fight against Moscow is key to both European and American security.
“What we see more and more is that North Korea, Iran, China and of course Russia are working together, working together against Ukraine,” Rutte said recently at a European leaders’ meeting in Budapest.
“At the same time, Russia has to pay for this, and one of the things they are doing is delivering technology to North Korea,” which he warned was threatening to the “mainland of the US (and) continental Europe.”
“I look forward to sitting down with Donald Trump to discuss how we can face these threats collectively,” Rutte said.
Indian man awakes on funeral pyre
JAIPUR, India: An Indian man awoke on a funeral pyre moments before it was to be set on fire after a doctor skipped a postmortem, medical officials said Saturday.
Rohitash Kumar, 25, who had speaking and hearing difficulties, had fallen sick and was taken to a hospital in Jhunjhunu in the western state of Rajasthan on Thursday.
Indian media reported he had had an epileptic seizure, and a doctor declared him dead on arrival at the hospital.
But instead of the required postmortem to ascertain the cause of death, doctors sent him to the mortuary, and then to be burned according to Hindu rites.
D. Singh, chief medical officer of the hospital, told AFP that a doctor had “prepared the postmortem report without actually doing the postmortem, and the body was then sent for cremation.”
Singh said that “shortly before the pyre was to be lit, Rohitash’s body started movements,” adding that “he was alive and was breathing.”
Kumar was rushed to hospital for a second time, but was confirmed dead on Friday during treatment.
Authorities have suspended the services of three doctors and the police have launched an investigation.
