HOUSTON: Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, said the oil and gas industry must “push back” against suggestions that oil demand is in long term decline and that Saudi energy assets will be left “stranded” in the ground as alternative energy sources are developed.
In a keynote address at the CERAWeek by IHS Market gathering of top energy experts in Houston, Texas, Nasser also warned that the oil market faces “multiple downside political risks,” and needs $20 trillion of investment over the next 25 years — the size of the American economy.
He was speaking on the 80th anniversary of the discovery of oil in Saudi Arabia, when American geologists found significant reserves of crude in Dhahran, which led to the creation of Saudi Aramco.
“Today I want to be clear about what really lies ahead for our industry, and the actions we must take to secure that future,” he said.
“We must leave people in no doubt that misplaced notions of ‘peak oil demandʼ and ‘stranded resourcesʼ are direct threats to an orderly energy transition and energy security,” he said, adding: “Oil and gas will continue to play a major role in a world where all energy sources will be required for the foreseeable future.”
On the current oil market, he said market fundamentals were healthy. “Despite recent volatility in the financial markets, the broad-based recovery in the global economy remains on track. It is particularly encouraging to see expectations of stronger economic growth in the emerging and developing world because that is where most oil demand growth is expected to be. Oil demand globally also remains healthy,” he said.
Nasser pointed to flaws in all the various alternatives that have been advocated as future energy sources.
“The hot topic in energy transition is the future role of oil in transport. At the heart of it is the light duty road passenger vehicles segment (cars) that accounts for about 20 percent of global oil demand today. Many wrongly believe that it is a simple matter of electric vehicles quickly and smoothly replacing the internal combustion engine,” he said.
The future for alternatives to the motor car and internal combustion engine was “far more complex,” he said.
“In fact, there are five strong technology horses racing each other to become the powertrain of the future — advanced internal combustion engines; hybrid electric vehicles; plug-in hybrid vehicles; pure battery electric vehicles; and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The first three are powered by an internal combustion engine. And let us not forget that more than 99 percent of the passenger vehicles on the road today have an internal combustion engine and will be with us for a long time,” he pointed out.
The transformation of the motor industry was still unclear, Nasser said. “In fact, some of the most disruptive technologies are only just emerging, including highly advanced integrated engine-fuel systems like the ones our researchers are working hard on at Saudi Aramco in collaboration with car and truck engine manufacturers.
“So, given the world’s focus on climate change, there should be a global priority on improving the efficiency and lowering carbon emissions from internal combustion engines as well as fuels, especially when the other two horses in the race — pure battery electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles — still face a range of problems,” he added.
There were other factors that further complicated the search for oil alternatives. “There are also major hurdles before alternatives can be deployed at scale. Affordability is one, as customers continue to place great importance on up-front costs, especially in developing nations. Another is that it will become increasingly difficult for governments to subsidize such enormous numbers, although this is often glossed over,” Nasser said.
“It will require massive infrastructure, which is particularly challenging in developing nations as they are least well-equipped and can least afford this in the face of other economic and social priorities. Yet the majority of vehicle growth will be in those very same nations.”
Analysts estimate that traditional motor car usage accounts for 20 percent of global oil demand, but that figure is complicated by future demographic trends.
“Further adding to the complexity will be the extra two billion people on the planet by 2050, a world economy three times its current size., and a global middle class that will reach five billion by 2030 – with two-thirds of it in Asia driving consumption. These macro factors will only grow demand for road passenger transport,” Nasser said.
“So, yes, battery electric vehicles will grow and have a welcome role to play in global mobility. But given the competition and complexity of the transition, their impact on the 20 percent oil demand should not be exaggerated,” he added.
The rest of the demand side presented great opportunities for oil producers, he said. “In petrochemicals alone, oil use is expected to increase by almost 50 percent, while the number of air passengers each year is expected to almost double to 8 billion over the coming two decades.”
There were also new outlets being developed for Aramco products, he insisted. “For example, Saudi Aramco recently signed an agreement centered on a potential breakthrough technology that will directly convert up to 70 percent of a barrel of crude into petrochemicals.
“This could transform the role of oil as a major petrochemical feedstock, substantially lighten the carbon footprint of oil consumption because of its non-combustible nature, and reduce costs by 30 percent, and become a large and reliable outlet for our future oil production,” he said.
“I also see huge potential in producing advanced materials for use in a wide range of high growth industries. Just imagine a future where skyscrapers, cars (including electric ones!), and even our own pipelines are built with these advanced oil-based materials.
“Looking further ahead, if we combine hydrogen from oil with carbon capture, utilization, and storage then green hydrogen comes within reach – not only for transport but also power and heat,” he added.
Oil and gas will continue to play a major role in a world where all energy sources will be required for the foreseeable future.
But he insisted that the energy industry needed action in four main areas to enable it to face the future:
“First, we need to expand exploration. Last year, only 7 billion barrels equivalent of oil and gas combined were discovered, which is among the lowest on record.
“Second, we must not only meet the growth in oil demand but also offset a large natural decline in developed oil fields. Even conservative estimates suggest about 20 million barrels per day of new capacity is required over the next five years,” Nasser said
“Third, our industry needs more than 20 trillion dollars over the next quarter century to meet rising demand for oil and gas (including in aging infrastructure). That is virtually the size of the US economy, and we have already lost 1 trillion dollars of investments since the downturn.
“This staggering amount will only come if investors are convinced that oil will be allowed to compete on a level playing field, that oil is worth so much more, and that oil is here for the foreseeable future,” he said.
“That is why we must push back on the idea that the world can do without proven and reliable sources. We also need an environment that encourages long-term investments, as we are seeing here in the United States, and in Saudi Arabia with our ambitious Vision 2030,” Nasser added.
Finally, he said, we need to intensify our efforts to both enhance current technologies as well as create new, game-changing ones. That requires us to devote more resources to longer term research, particularly low-to-no carbon products. And it means regulators must be policy holistic and technology agnostic – let the market decide,” he said.
‘Oil and gas will continue to play a major role in the world,’ says Aramco’s Nasser
‘Oil and gas will continue to play a major role in the world,’ says Aramco’s Nasser
Saudi non-oil growth holds firm in March with PMI at 58: S&P Global
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector maintained its resilience in March, with the Kingdom’s Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 58.1, the highest among its Middle Eastern peers.
According to the latest Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI report compiled by S&P Global, non-oil private firms in the Kingdom witnessed a marked increase in new order volumes, although the growth rate softened further from the near 14-year record seen in January.
The March figure represented a slight decline from the 58.4 seen in February, but it was still higher than UAE’s PMI rating of 54, Kuwait’s at 52.3 and Qatar’s at 52.
Any PMI reading above 50 signifies an expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
The sustained momentum reflects the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 strategy to reduce reliance on oil by accelerating growth in tourism, manufacturing, logistics, and financial services.
Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, described the Saudi non-oil private sector as demonstrating “significant resilience and growth,” adding: “This reading reflects sustained positive momentum in business conditions, highlighting the sector’s robust economic health and its vital role in the ongoing diversification efforts of the Kingdom as envisaged by Vision 2030.”
Saudi Arabia’s non-oil businesses continued to increase their employment at an elevated pace in March, driven by an upturn in demand.
The report further said that staffing growth was little changed from February’s 16-month high, as firms widely commented on efforts to build their sales teams and overall capacity.
Survey data also indicated that job growth in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector during the first three months of this year was the fastest since the third quarter of 2012.
“Rising employment rates are a direct benefit of businesses scaling up operations to meet demand. By providing more job opportunities, Saudi Arabia aims to nurture a skilled and ambitious workforce, reducing the unemployment rate to 7 percent for Saudi nationals,” said Al-Ghaith.
Speaking at the World Investment Conference in Riyadh last November, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim said non-oil activities now account for 52 percent of the Kingdom’s gross domestic product. He added that the non-oil economy has grown by 20 percent since the launch of Vision 2030.
The latest PMI report added that greater marketing efforts, lower selling prices, and a broader improvement in economic conditions played a crucial role in driving sales growth among non-oil firms in Saudi Arabia in March.
New orders from foreign markets also rose in March, although the rate of expansion slowed.
Highlighting the affinity of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil products in international markets, a report by the General Authority for Statistics revealed that the Kingdom’s non-energy exports surged by 10.7 percent in January to reach SR26.48 billion ($7.06 billion).
According to the latest S&P Global report, increased workforces and stronger new businesses supported a robust upturn in non-oil private sector activity during March.
Non-oil firms in the Kingdom also engaged in additional stockpiling as they anticipate a sustained uplift in sales.
Companies that took part in the survey revealed that purchasing activity rose sharply in March, leading to another steep increase in total inventories.
“The improvement in business conditions supports efforts to attract investment, increase the competitiveness of the Saudi economy, and enhance local business growth,” said Al-Ghaith.
He added: “This initiative is further supported by governmental enhancements in regulatory frameworks and infrastructure investments which pave the way for greater private and foreign investments.”
Attracting international investments is one of the crucial goals outlined in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, with the Kingdom aiming to attract $100 billion a year in foreign direct investment by the end of this decade.
The latest S&P Global report further said that suppliers’ delivery times improved in March, with several panellists noting that strong vendor relationships had facilitated efficiency gains.
However, some reports of supply disruption and administrative delays led to a much softer overall upturn in performance compared to February. This softening also hindered efforts to clear outstanding work, contributing to a renewed and sharp rise in total backlogs.
In terms of pricing, the latest survey revealed that input cost pressures witnessed a marked easing in March.
The report added that the rate of inflation dropped to its lowest level in just over four years, as firms saw a much weaker increase in purchase prices. Consequently, non-oil companies reduced their selling prices for the first time in six months.
“Sustaining and nurturing these positive trends, Saudi Arabia is laying the groundwork for a multifaceted and thriving economy that meets the aspirations of its people and the strategic goals of the nation,” said Al-Ghaith.
“With each uptick in the PMI and every incremental GDP growth, the Kingdom moves closer to realizing its ambitions of a diversified, sustainable economic future,” he concluded.
Global markets fall as Trump’s tariffs roil world trade
- Pakistan Stock Exchange falls rapidly, suspending trading for an hour after a 5% drop in KSE-100 index
- Middle East stock markets tumble as they struggled with dual hit of new US tariffs, oil prices decline
Global markets plunged Monday following last week’s two-day meltdown on Wall Street, and President Donald Trump said he won’t back down on his sweeping new tariffs, which have roiled global trade.
Countries are scrambling to figure out how to respond to the tariffs, with China and others retaliating quickly.
Trump’s tariff blitz fulfilled a key campaign promise as he acted without Congress to redraw the rules of the international trading system. It was a move decades in the making for Trump, who has long denounced foreign trade deals as unfair to the US
The higher rates are set to be collected beginning Wednesday, ushering in a new era of economic uncertainty with no clear end in sight.
Here’s the latest:
Chinese officials meet business representatives from Tesla and other US companies.
Chinese government officials met business representatives from Tesla, GE Healthcare and other US companies on Sunday. It called on them to issue “reasonable” statements and take “concrete actions” on addressing the issue of tariffs.
“The United States in recent days has used all sorts of excuses to announce indiscriminate tariffs on all trading partners, including China, severely harming the rules-based multilateral trade system,” said Ling Ji, a vice minister of commerce, at the meeting with 20 US companies.
“China’s countermeasures are not only a way to protect the rights and interests of companies, including American ones, but are also to urge the US to return to the right path of the multilateral trading system,” Ling added.
Ling also promised that China would remain open to foreign investment, according to a readout of the meeting from the Ministry of Commerce.
Malaysia wants Southeast Asia to present a united response to tariffs
Malaysia’s Trade Minister Zafrul Abdul Aziz said his country wants to forge a united response from Southeast Asia to the sweeping US tariffs.
Malaysia, which is the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations this year, will lead the regional bloc’s special Economic Ministers’ Meeting on April 10 in Kuala Lumpur to discuss the broader implication of the tariff measures on regional trade and investment, Zafrul told a news conference on Monday.
“We are looking at the investment flow, macroeconomic stability and ASEAN’s coordinated response to this tariff issue,” Zafrul said.
ASEAN leaders will also meet to discuss member states’ strategies and to mitigate potential disruptions to regional supply chain networks.
Pakistan plans to send a government delegation to Washington this month to discuss how to avoid the 29% tariffs imposed by the US on imports from Pakistan, officials said Monday.
The development came two days after Pakistan’s prime minister asked its finance minister to send him recommendations for resolving the issue. The US imports around $5 billion worth of textiles and other products from Pakistan, which heavily relies on loans from the International Monetary Fund and others.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange fell rapidly on Monday. The exchange suspended trading for an hour after a 5% drop in its main KSE-30 index.
Mideast markets follow oil prices lower
Middle East stock markets tumbled as they struggled with the dual hit of the new US tariffs and a sharp decline in oil prices, squeezing energy-producing nations that rely on those sales to power their economies and government spending.
Benchmark Brent crude is down by nearly 15% over the last five days of trading, with a barrel of oil costing just over $63. That’s down nearly 30% from a year ago, when a barrel cost over $90.
That cost per barrel is far lower than the estimated break-even price for producers. That’s coupled with the new tariffs, which saw the Gulf Cooperation Council states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hit with 10% tariffs. Other Mideast nations face higher tariffs, like Iraq at 39% and Syria at 41%.
The Dubai Financial Market exchange fell 5% as it opened for the week. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange fell 4%.
Markets that opened Sunday saw losses as well. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul stock exchange fell over 6% in trading. The giant of the exchange, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco, fell over 5% on its own, wiping away billions in market capitalization for the world’s sixth-most-valuable company.
Beijing struck a note of confidence on Monday even as markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai tumbled.
“The sky won’t fall. Faced with the indiscriminate punches of US taxes, we know what we are doing and we have tools at our disposal,” wrote The People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s official mouthpiece.
China announced a slew of countermeasures on Friday evening aimed at Trump’s tariffs, including its own 34% tariffs on all goods from the US set to go in effect on Wednesday.
Australian dollar drops to levels last seen early in pandemic
The Australian dollar fell below 60 US cents on Monday for the first time since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The drop reflected concerns over the Chinese economy and market expectations for four interest rate cuts in Australia this calendar year, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said.
“What our modeling shows is that we expect there to be big hits to American growth and Chinese growth and a spike in American inflation as well,” Chalmers said.
“We expect more manageable impacts on the Australian economy, but we still do expect Australian GDP to take a hit and we expect there to be an impact on prices here as well,” he added.
The Trump administration assigned Australia the minimum baseline 10% tariff on imports in the United States. The US has enjoyed a trade surplus with Australia for decades.
Indian stocks fell sharply on Monday, seeing their biggest single-day drop in percentage terms since March 2020 amid the pandemic.
The benchmark BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 index both dropped about 5% after trading opened but then recovered slightly. Both were later trading down about 4 percent.
President Donald Trump said Sunday that he won’t back down on his sweeping tariffs on imports from most of the world unless countries even out their trade with the US, digging in on his plans to implement the taxes that have sent financial markets reeling, raised fears of a recession and upended the global trading system.
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said he didn’t want global markets to fall, but also that he wasn’t concerned about the massive sell-off either, adding, “sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”
His comments came as global financial markets appeared on track to continue sharp declines once trading resumes Monday, and after Trump’s aides sought to soothe market concerns by saying more than 50 nations had reached out about launching negotiations to lift the tariffs.
“I spoke to a lot of leaders, European, Asian, from all over the world,” Trump said. “They’re dying to make a deal. And I said, we’re not going to have deficits with your country. We’re not going to do that, because to me a deficit is a loss. We’re going to have surpluses or at worst, going to be breaking even.”
Asian markets plunged on Monday following last week’s two-day meltdown on Wall Street, and US President Donald Trump said he won’t back down on his sweeping tariffs on imports from most of the world unless countries even out their trade with the US
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index lost nearly 8% shortly after the market opened on Monday. By midday, it was down 6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 9.4%, while the Shanghai Composite index was down 6.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi lost 4.1%
US futures also signaled further weakness.
Market observers expect investors will face more wild swings in the days and weeks to come, with a short-term resolution to the trade war appearing unlikely.
Oil Updates — crude tumbles further as US-China trade tensions fuel recession fears
LONDON : Oil prices extended last week’s losses on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate falling more than 4 percent, as escalating trade tensions between the US and China stoked fears of a recession that would reduce demand for crude.
Brent futures declined $2.54, or 3.9 percent, to $63.04 a barrel at 10:45 a.m. Saudi time, while US WTI crude futures lost $2.5, or 4.03 percent, to $59.49. Both benchmarks dropped their lowest since April 2021.
Oil plunged 7 percent on Friday as China ramped up tariffs on US goods, escalating a trade war that has led investors to price in a higher probability of recession. Last week, Brent lost 10.9 percent, while WTI dropped 10.6 percent.
“It’s hard to see a floor for crude unless the panic in the markets subsides and it’s hard to see that happening unless Trump says something to arrest snowballing fears over a global trade war and recession,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.
Responding to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, China said on Friday it would impose additional levies of 34 percent on American goods, confirming investor fears that a full-blown global trade war is underway.
Imports of oil, gas and refined products were given exemptions from Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, but the policies could stoke inflation, slow economic growth and intensify trade disputes, weighing on oil prices.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that Trump’s new tariffs are “larger than expected,” and the economic fallout, including higher inflation and slower growth, likely will be as well.
Adding to the price changes, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies decided to advance plans for output increases. The group now aims to return 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd.
“This potential influx of supply, reversing cuts maintained over the past two years, represents a major shift in market dynamics and acts as a significant headwind for prices,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm.
Over the weekend, top OPEC+ ministers stressed the need for full compliance with oil output targets and called for overproducers to submit plans by April 15 to compensate for pumping too much.
On the geopolitical front, Iran on Sunday rejected US demands that it hold direct nuclear talks or face strikes. Russia claimed to have captured Basivka in Ukraine’s Sumy region and said its forces were attacking multiple nearby settlements.
Riyadh Air receives Air Operator Certificate, set to launch flights in 2025
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Air has received approval from the General Authority of Civil Aviation to commence its flight operations, according to a statement released on Sunday.
The airline, owned by the Public Investment Fund, was granted the Air Operator Certificate after successfully meeting all regulatory, safety, and operational standards.
This milestone aligns with Riyadh Air’s goal of connecting over 100 international cities by 2030 and contributing more than $20 billion to the Kingdom’s economy.
Additionally, the airline aims to enhance the travel experience by leveraging digital technology to streamline bookings and airport procedures, catering to Saudi Arabia’s young, tech-savvy population, as highlighted by CEO Tony Douglas.
During the certificate delivery ceremony, Saudi Minister of Transport and Logistics Saleh Al-Jasser told Al-Ekhbariya: “We congratulate Riyadh Air, the Public Investment Fund, and the Saudi citizens on the successful completion of the licensing process and the official issuance of the Air Operator Certificate.”
He further emphasized that Riyadh Air is now fully certified to operate, marking a significant milestone in the initiative set in motion by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s strategy, which tasked PIF with launching the carrier.
“Establishing an airline of this scale is a monumental task, but the process is progressing smoothly. We are now in the final stages, with the next step being the launch of the first flight before the end of this year,” the minister remarked.
Al-Jasser also highlighted that the Kingdom is in the midst of restructuring its aviation infrastructure and launching several initiatives aimed at advancing the country’s aviation sector.
“The transport strategy includes restructuring the aviation sector, transitioning from a single operator model to a multi-operator system,” he said.
The minister added: “King Salman International Airport Development Co. is making steady progress in finalizing the airport’s design, with construction already underway. This comprehensive project includes passenger terminals, runways, private aviation facilities, and technical services, creating a fully integrated aviation city that is being developed as planned.”
Al-Jasser further noted that development projects are ongoing at airports in Jazan, Hail, and Qassim, as well as in Al-Baha, Abha, Taif, and Al-Jouf.
“Saudi airports have made significant strides in regulations, legislation, and services, which have attracted investments, strengthened passenger rights, and enhanced service quality,” he said.
The minister also emphasized: “We’ve expanded from 100 destinations connected to the Kingdom’s airports to 172 destinations, with the aviation strategy being a comprehensive plan for the future.”
Saudi Aramco cuts oil prices to Asia to four-month low
RIYADH: Saudi Aramco on Sunday cut its crude oil prices for Asian buyers in May to their lowest in four months, an official document showed.
This is the second consecutive month Aramco has lowered its prices. The company also lowered April prices for other grades it sells to Asia by $2.30 per barrel.
Aramco cut the May official selling price for flagship Arab Light crude by $2.30 to $1.20 a barrel above the average of Oman and Dubai prices, a pricing document from the producer showed.
The company also lowered April prices for other grades it sells to Asia by $2.30 per barrel.
Eight OPEC+ countries unexpectedly agreed on Thursday to advance their plan to phase out oil output cuts by increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, a decision that prompted oil prices to extend earlier sharp losses.
Prior to the news, Arab Light price for Asia had been expected to fall by $1.80 to $2 in a Reuters survey, tracking the steep declines in benchmark prices in March.
Saudi Aramco’s crude oil is classified into five grades based on density: Super Light (greater than 40), Arab Extra Light (36-40), Arab Light (32-36), Arab Medium (29-32), and Arab Heavy (below 29). These price changes influence the cost of approximately 9 million barrels per day of crude oil shipped to Asia, setting price benchmarks for other major oil producers such as Iran, Kuwait, and Iraq.
For North America, Aramco has set the May OSP for Arab Light crude at $3.60 per barrel above the Argus Sour Crude Index.
Spot premium of Dubai averaged at $1.38 per barrel in March, down from $3.33 per barrel, the average in February following more Russian supply returning to Asia since March.
