HOUSTON: Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, said the oil and gas industry must “push back” against suggestions that oil demand is in long term decline and that Saudi energy assets will be left “stranded” in the ground as alternative energy sources are developed.
In a keynote address at the CERAWeek by IHS Market gathering of top energy experts in Houston, Texas, Nasser also warned that the oil market faces “multiple downside political risks,” and needs $20 trillion of investment over the next 25 years — the size of the American economy.
He was speaking on the 80th anniversary of the discovery of oil in Saudi Arabia, when American geologists found significant reserves of crude in Dhahran, which led to the creation of Saudi Aramco.
“Today I want to be clear about what really lies ahead for our industry, and the actions we must take to secure that future,” he said.
“We must leave people in no doubt that misplaced notions of ‘peak oil demandʼ and ‘stranded resourcesʼ are direct threats to an orderly energy transition and energy security,” he said, adding: “Oil and gas will continue to play a major role in a world where all energy sources will be required for the foreseeable future.”
On the current oil market, he said market fundamentals were healthy. “Despite recent volatility in the financial markets, the broad-based recovery in the global economy remains on track. It is particularly encouraging to see expectations of stronger economic growth in the emerging and developing world because that is where most oil demand growth is expected to be. Oil demand globally also remains healthy,” he said.
Nasser pointed to flaws in all the various alternatives that have been advocated as future energy sources.
“The hot topic in energy transition is the future role of oil in transport. At the heart of it is the light duty road passenger vehicles segment (cars) that accounts for about 20 percent of global oil demand today. Many wrongly believe that it is a simple matter of electric vehicles quickly and smoothly replacing the internal combustion engine,” he said.
The future for alternatives to the motor car and internal combustion engine was “far more complex,” he said.
“In fact, there are five strong technology horses racing each other to become the powertrain of the future — advanced internal combustion engines; hybrid electric vehicles; plug-in hybrid vehicles; pure battery electric vehicles; and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The first three are powered by an internal combustion engine. And let us not forget that more than 99 percent of the passenger vehicles on the road today have an internal combustion engine and will be with us for a long time,” he pointed out.
The transformation of the motor industry was still unclear, Nasser said. “In fact, some of the most disruptive technologies are only just emerging, including highly advanced integrated engine-fuel systems like the ones our researchers are working hard on at Saudi Aramco in collaboration with car and truck engine manufacturers.
“So, given the world’s focus on climate change, there should be a global priority on improving the efficiency and lowering carbon emissions from internal combustion engines as well as fuels, especially when the other two horses in the race — pure battery electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles — still face a range of problems,” he added.
There were other factors that further complicated the search for oil alternatives. “There are also major hurdles before alternatives can be deployed at scale. Affordability is one, as customers continue to place great importance on up-front costs, especially in developing nations. Another is that it will become increasingly difficult for governments to subsidize such enormous numbers, although this is often glossed over,” Nasser said.
“It will require massive infrastructure, which is particularly challenging in developing nations as they are least well-equipped and can least afford this in the face of other economic and social priorities. Yet the majority of vehicle growth will be in those very same nations.”
Analysts estimate that traditional motor car usage accounts for 20 percent of global oil demand, but that figure is complicated by future demographic trends.
“Further adding to the complexity will be the extra two billion people on the planet by 2050, a world economy three times its current size., and a global middle class that will reach five billion by 2030 – with two-thirds of it in Asia driving consumption. These macro factors will only grow demand for road passenger transport,” Nasser said.
“So, yes, battery electric vehicles will grow and have a welcome role to play in global mobility. But given the competition and complexity of the transition, their impact on the 20 percent oil demand should not be exaggerated,” he added.
The rest of the demand side presented great opportunities for oil producers, he said. “In petrochemicals alone, oil use is expected to increase by almost 50 percent, while the number of air passengers each year is expected to almost double to 8 billion over the coming two decades.”
There were also new outlets being developed for Aramco products, he insisted. “For example, Saudi Aramco recently signed an agreement centered on a potential breakthrough technology that will directly convert up to 70 percent of a barrel of crude into petrochemicals.
“This could transform the role of oil as a major petrochemical feedstock, substantially lighten the carbon footprint of oil consumption because of its non-combustible nature, and reduce costs by 30 percent, and become a large and reliable outlet for our future oil production,” he said.
“I also see huge potential in producing advanced materials for use in a wide range of high growth industries. Just imagine a future where skyscrapers, cars (including electric ones!), and even our own pipelines are built with these advanced oil-based materials.
“Looking further ahead, if we combine hydrogen from oil with carbon capture, utilization, and storage then green hydrogen comes within reach – not only for transport but also power and heat,” he added.
Oil and gas will continue to play a major role in a world where all energy sources will be required for the foreseeable future.
But he insisted that the energy industry needed action in four main areas to enable it to face the future:
“First, we need to expand exploration. Last year, only 7 billion barrels equivalent of oil and gas combined were discovered, which is among the lowest on record.
“Second, we must not only meet the growth in oil demand but also offset a large natural decline in developed oil fields. Even conservative estimates suggest about 20 million barrels per day of new capacity is required over the next five years,” Nasser said
“Third, our industry needs more than 20 trillion dollars over the next quarter century to meet rising demand for oil and gas (including in aging infrastructure). That is virtually the size of the US economy, and we have already lost 1 trillion dollars of investments since the downturn.
“This staggering amount will only come if investors are convinced that oil will be allowed to compete on a level playing field, that oil is worth so much more, and that oil is here for the foreseeable future,” he said.
“That is why we must push back on the idea that the world can do without proven and reliable sources. We also need an environment that encourages long-term investments, as we are seeing here in the United States, and in Saudi Arabia with our ambitious Vision 2030,” Nasser added.
Finally, he said, we need to intensify our efforts to both enhance current technologies as well as create new, game-changing ones. That requires us to devote more resources to longer term research, particularly low-to-no carbon products. And it means regulators must be policy holistic and technology agnostic – let the market decide,” he said.
‘Oil and gas will continue to play a major role in the world,’ says Aramco’s Nasser
‘Oil and gas will continue to play a major role in the world,’ says Aramco’s Nasser
Global Markets — stocks and dollar dip as Trump’s spending bill passes, trade deal deadline nears
LONDON: Stocks slipped on Friday as US President Donald Trump got his signature tax cut bill over the line and attention turned to his July 9 deadline for countries to secure trade deals with the world’s biggest economy.
The dollar also fell against major currencies with US markets already shut for the holiday-shortened week, as traders considered the impact of Trump’s sweeping spending bill which is expected to add an estimated $3.4 trillion to the national debt.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.8 percent, driven in part by losses on spirits makers such as Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau after China said it would impose duties of up to 34.9 percent on brandy from the EU starting July 5.
US S&P 500 futures edged down 0.6 percent, following a 0.8 percent overnight advance for the cash index to a fresh all-time closing peak. Wall Street is closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.
Trump said Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on exports to the US, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals before a July 9 deadline when tariffs could rise sharply.
Investors are “now just waiting for July 9,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, with the market’s lack of optimism for trade deals responsible for some of the equity weakness in export-reliant Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea.
At the same time, investors cheered the surprisingly robust jobs report on Thursday, sending all three of the main US equity indexes climbing in a shortened session.
“The US economy is holding together better than most people expected, which suggests to me that markets can easily continue to do better (from here),” Sycamore said.
Following the close, the House narrowly approved Trump’s signature, 869-page bill, which averts the near-term prospect of a US government default but adds trillions to the national debt to fuel spending on border security and the military.
Trade the key focus in Asia
Trump said he expected “a couple” more trade agreements after announcing a deal with Vietnam on Wednesday to add to framework agreements with China and Britain as the only successes so far.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that a deal with India is close. However, progress on agreements with Japan and South Korea, once touted by the White House as likely to be among the earliest to be announced, appears to have broken down.
The US dollar index had its worst first half since 1973 as Trump’s chaotic roll-out of sweeping tariffs heightened concerns about the US economy and the safety of Treasuries, but had rallied 0.4 percent on Thursday before retracing some of those gains on Friday.
As of 2:00 p.m. Saudi time it was down 0.1 percent at 96.96.
The euro added 0.2 percent to $1.1773, while sterling held steady at $1.3662.
The US Treasury bond market is closed on Friday for the holiday, but 10-year yields rose 4.7 basis points to 4.34 percent, while the two-year yield jumped 9.3 bps to 3.882 percent.
Gold firmed 0.4 percent to $3,336 per ounce, on track for a weekly gain as investors again sought refuge in safe-haven assets due to concerns over the US’s fiscal position and tariffs.
Brent crude futures fell 64 cents to $68.17 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude likewise dropped 64 cents to $66.35, as Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.
World food prices tick higher in June, led by meat and vegetable oils
PARIS: Global food commodity prices edged higher in June, supported by higher meat, vegetable oil and dairy prices, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization has said.
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 128 points in June, up 0.5 percent from May. The index stood 5.8 percent higher than a year ago, but remained 20.1 percent below its record high in March 2022.
The cereal price index fell 1.5 percent to 107.4 points, now 6.8 percent below a year ago, as global maize prices dropped sharply for a second month. Larger harvests and more export competition from Argentina and Brazil weighed on maize, while barley and sorghum also declined.
Wheat prices, however, rose due to weather concerns in Russia, the EU, and the US.
The vegetable oil price index rose 2.3 percent from May to 155.7 points, now 18.2 percent above its June 2024 level, led by higher palm, rapeseed, and soy oil prices.
Palm oil climbed nearly 5 percent from May on strong import demand, while soy oil was supported by expectations of higher demand from the biofuel sector following announcements of supportive policy measures in Brazil and the US.
Sugar prices dropped 5.2 percent from May to 103.7 points, the lowest since April 2021, reflecting improved supply prospects in Brazil, India, and Thailand.
Meat prices rose to a record 126.0 points, now 6.7 percent above June 2024, with all categories rising except poultry. Bovine meat set a new peak, reflecting tighter supplies from Brazil and strong demand from the US. Poultry prices continued to fall due to abundant Brazilian supplies.
The dairy price index edged up 0.5 percent from May to 154.4 points, marking a 20.7 percent annual increase.
In a separate report, the FAO forecast global cereal production in 2025 at a record 2.925 billion tonnes, 0.5 percent above its previous projection and 2.3 percent above the previous year.
The outlook could be affected by expected hot, dry conditions in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly for maize with plantings almost complete.
Saudi Arabia posts 4 years of VC growth despite global slowdown: report
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia achieved four consecutive years of growth in venture capital relative to its economy, a feat unmatched among its peers, according to a new report.
Between 2020 and 2023, the Kingdom was the only large market in the sample to post uninterrupted annual gains in VC intensity, contrasting with the more episodic deal flow seen across Africa and parts of Southeast Asia, MAGNiTT’s recently published Macro Meets VC report stated.
While 2024 saw a slight contraction in funding amid global tightening, Saudi Arabia’s multi-year upward trend signals a sustained commitment to innovation-led diversification.
The Kingdom is steadily consolidating its position as a model for policy-driven venture capital development in emerging markets as it seeks to diversify its economy in line with the Vision 2030 blueprint.
“Saudi Arabia is becoming the model for long-term, policy-driven ecosystem building,” the report notes, highlighting that sovereign limited partners and local funds have been instrumental in buffering the Kingdom from some of the volatility that struck other emerging venture markets.
Saudi Arabia’s policy momentum
The MAGNiTT data revealed that Saudi Arabia recorded a five-year average VC-to-GDP ratio of 0.07 percent.
Although this figure remains modest compared to more mature hubs like Singapore, its consistent upward movement underscores the growing depth of domestic capital formation.
Beyond the headline ratios, the Kingdom’s strategic positioning has also come into sharper focus. Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE, is classified as a “Growth Market”— a designation that reflects not only a sizeable GDP and population but also the rising economic clout of local consumer and enterprise demand.
With a GDP approaching $950 billion and a population exceeding 33 million, Saudi Arabia presents a significant scale advantage.
According to MAGNiTT’s benchmarking, this size creates “natural expansion targets for startups moving beyond initial launch markets,” supporting both regional and international founders seeking to diversify beyond smaller ecosystems.
MENA’s uneven progress
Across the broader Middle East and North Africa region, venture capital activity has continued to evolve unevenly.
The UAE has retained its reputation as a strategic innovation hub and one of the few “MEGA Markets” in the emerging world, boasting a five-year average VC-to-GDP ratio of 0.20 percent.
This proportion — identical to Indonesia’s ratio — signifies robust venture activity relative to the economy’s size.
Yet, while the UAE maintained this level, Saudi Arabia has seen more consistent growth in funding, a dynamic the report attributes to policy-led market development.
In Egypt, VC has gained further traction over the period under review. Egypt achieved a 25 percent rise in total funding compared to the previous five-year average, lifting its VC-GDP ratio by 0.02 percentage points to 0.11 percent.
Although Egypt’s overall economic constraints remain acute — GDP per capita still lags below $10,000 — the relative progress suggests improving investor confidence, particularly in fintech and e-commerce.
However, the report cautions that deal flow in Egypt, much like in Nigeria, remains fragile and prone to episodic swings driven by a handful of large transactions.
The macroeconomic context across MENA has also been influential. Elevated oil price volatility and the impact of the Israel–Iran conflict have created a challenging backdrop for policymakers.
Brent crude surged more than 13 percent in a single day earlier in 2025, underscoring the region’s exposure to external shocks.
Nevertheless, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE managed to maintain monetary policy stability in line with the US Federal Reserve’s cautious stance.
Saudi Arabia kept its benchmark rate at 5.5 percent, supported by inflation trending around 2 percent, while the UAE held steady at 4.4 percent.
These decisions reflected a delicate balance between containing price pressures and supporting economic diversification efforts.
Overall, MENA’s five-year aggregate venture funding reached $12.52 billion. Although this total remains well below the levels seen in more mature regions, it represents a meaningful share of emerging markets capital.
MENA also posted the highest deal count relative to its peers in Southeast Asia and Africa over the period, indicating a broader base of early-stage transactions even as late-stage funding remains more limited.
The report emphasizes that expanding geographic and sectoral reach within MENA will be critical to boosting efficiency metrics.
“VC remains heavily concentrated in a few sectors and cities,” the report observes, warning that without broader inclusion, capital intensity will struggle to match potential.
Southeast Asia’s VC benchmark
Beyond MENA, Southeast Asia’s ecosystem stands out as the most mature among emerging venture markets, driven primarily by Singapore’s exceptional performance.
Over the 2020–2024 period, Singapore achieved a 5-year average VC-to-GDP ratio of 1.3 percent, surpassing not only all emerging markets but also developed economies such as the US, which registered 0.79 percent, and the UK, with 0.73 percent.
Even with a 5.4 percent decline in total funding compared to the prior five years and a 0.19 percentage point drop in VC-GDP ratio, Singapore maintained unmatched capital efficiency.
The report describes the city-state as “a benchmark for capital efficiency in venture ecosystems,” attributing this strength to strong regulatory frameworks, institutional capital participation, and a deep bench of experienced founders and investors.
Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, recorded total VC funding volumes nearly twice as large as Singapore’s over five years, but its relative VC-GDP ratio remained lower at 0.2 percent.
This dynamic illustrates one of the report’s core findings: venture capital inflows correlate more strongly with GDP per capita than total GDP.
In Indonesia’s case, while its GDP surpassed $1.2 trillion, GDP per capita hovered around $4,000, constraining purchasing power and, by extension, startup revenue potential.
Thailand, meanwhile, reported funding gains due mainly to a single mega deal rather than systematic improvements in ecosystem depth.
In Africa, Nigeria emerged as an unexpected bright spot in 2024, as a single major transaction lifted its VC-GDP ratio to 0.15 percent — the highest in the region for that year.
However, this outlier result also revealed the episodic nature of capital deployment in developing markets.
Kenya registered a relatively high five-year VC-GDP ratio of 0.3 percent, even as absolute funding volumes remained modest.
The report notes that in low-GDP contexts, this ratio can overstate ecosystem maturity.
South Africa and Egypt showed more modest growth trajectories, weighed down by persistent inflation, structural constraints, and capital scarcity.
In aggregate, African economies continued to lag both Southeast Asia and MENA in total venture funding and deal velocity.
Global challenges ahead
Globally, the five years covered by the report were marked by intensifying volatility.
High interest rates, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on capital flows.
The US Federal Reserve held its policy rate between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent through mid-2025, citing “meaningful” inflation risks.
The European Central Bank moved to lower its deposit rate to 2 percent, reflecting cooling inflation but acknowledging sluggish growth.
The World Bank cut its global GDP forecast for 2025 to 2.3 percent, the weakest pace since the 2008 crisis, excluding recessions.
These headwinds contributed to the decline in venture capital across most emerging markets in 2024.
In response, sovereign capital and strategic investors have become increasingly important backstops.
The report highlights that domestic capital formation in MENA has partially offset declining global risk appetite.
However, these funds tend to be slower moving, more sector-concentrated, and less risk-tolerant than international investors.
“Without renewed foreign inflows or regional exit pathways, deal velocity may remain muted into the second half of 2025,” the report warns.
This environment is likely to force startups to extend runway and compel general partners to adopt more selective deployment strategies.
Despite the challenges, the outlook for Saudi Arabia and other growth markets remains constructive over the medium term.
The Kingdom’s policy clarity, deepening institutional capital pools, and Vision 2030 commitments create a foundation for continued expansion.
As the report concludes: “High GDP markets like KSA and Indonesia trail in VC efficiency — suggesting capital underutilization.”
Closing this gap between potential and realized funding will be the defining challenge for emerging ecosystems as they navigate a turbulent global landscape.
Oil Updates — crude falls as Iran affirms commitment to nuclear treaty
LONDON: Oil futures fell slightly on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation, while major producers from the OPEC+ group are set to agree to raise their output this weekend.
Brent crude futures were down 49 cents, or 0.71 percent, to $68.31 a barrel by 11:31 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 41 cents, or 0.61 percent, to $66.59.
Trade was thinned by the US Independence Day holiday.
US news website Axios reported on Thursday that the US was planning to meet with Iran next week to restart nuclear talks, while Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remained committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The US imposed fresh sanctions targeting Iran’s oil trade on Thursday.
Trump also said on Thursday that he would meet with representatives of Iran “if necessary.”
“Thursday’s news that the US is preparing to resume nuclear talks with Iran, and Araqchi’s clarification that cooperation with the UN atomic agency has not been halted considerably eases the threat of a fresh outbreak of hostilities,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.
Araqchi made the comments a day after Tehran enacted a law suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
OPEC+, the world’s largest group of oil producers, is set to announce an increase of 411,000 bpd in production for August as it looks to regain market share, four delegates from the group told Reuters.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over US tariff policies resurfaced as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levy rates approaches.
Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on goods sent to the US, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual trade deals.
President Trump told reporters before departing for Iowa on Thursday that the letters would be sent to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20 percent to 30 percent.
Trump’s 90-day pause on higher US tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the EU and Japan.
Separately, Barclays said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand.
EV maker Lucid’s quarterly deliveries rise but miss estimates
- Lucid delivered 3,309 vehicles in the quarter ended June 30
LONDON: Electric automaker Lucid on Wednesday reported a 38 percent rise in second-quarter deliveries, which, however, missed Wall Street expectations amid economic uncertainty.
Demand for Lucid’s pricier luxury EVs have been softer as consumers, pressured by high interest rates, shift toward cheaper hybrid and gasoline-powered cars.
Lucid delivered 3,309 vehicles in the quarter ended June 30, compared with estimates of 3,611 vehicles, according to seven analysts polled by Visible Alpha. It had delivered 2,394 vehicles in the same period last year.
Saudi Arabia-backed Lucid produced 3,863 vehicles in the quarter, missing estimates of 4,305 units, but above the 2,110 vehicles made a year ago.
The company stuck to its annual production target in May, allaying investor worries about manufacturing at a time when several automakers pulled their forecasts due to an uncertain outlook.
US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has led to a rise in vehicle prices as manufacturers struggle with high material costs, forcing them to reorganize supply chains and produce domestically.
Lucid’s interim CEO, Marc Winterhoff, had said in May that the company was expecting a rise of 8 percent to 15 percent in overall costs due to new tariffs.
The company’s fortunes rest heavily on the success of its newly launched Gravity SUV and the upcoming mid-size car, which targets a $50,000 price point, as it looks to expand its vehicle line and take a larger share of the market.
Deliveries at EV maker Tesla dropped 13.5 percent in the second quarter, dragged down by CEO Elon Musk’s right-wing political stances and an aging vehicle line-up that has turned off some buyers.
