WASHINGTON: The Federal Reserve this week will fire the opening salvo in a series of interest rate hikes this year, hoping to get out in front of an expected pickup in inflation.
The first rate hike of the year is overwhelmingly predicted by futures markets, analysts and investors alike to come Wednesday at the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting. It also will be the first under newly installed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
The central bank is preparing to raise the key lending rate as economic conditions converge to put upward pressure on prices, including massive new tax cuts, a weaker dollar and even the threat of a trade war.
Fears the Fed could raise its benchmark interest rate at a faster pace, perhaps as many as four times this year, spooked markets last month, briefly sparking a global stocks selloff in early February.
But Fed officials have called for calm, signaling that even the planned steady but gradual monetary policy tightening should not interrupt the momentum of the world’s largest economy, which they say has enough slack to allow for continued low unemployment and some wage increases without sparking inflation.
“They’re trying to prepare the markets and say, ‘Let’s not go crazy,’” Joseph Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told AFP.
But like other economists he now expects four hikes this year rather than three.
“I predict they will have to. It’s not a bad thing. It’s a good thing.”
Fed officials also will update their quarterly forecasts for the economy and the path of interest rates this week. With stocks on edge last month, Powell told lawmakers his outlook for the US economy had “strengthened since December.”
Since the Fed’s last policy meeting in January, economic data have been somewhat mixed, weighing on expectations for GDP growth in the first quarter: The trade deficit continues to widen, retail and auto sales as well as the housing market have been weaker, durable goods orders have undershot expectations and construction spending has been soft.
But surveys of sentiment in the manufacturing and services sectors show a strong head of steam in the economy while measures of consumer confidence and business sentiment are at record highs.
Job creation also exploded in February, one of the best months of the current economic recovery, with 313,000 new positions added while unemployment remains at a historically low 4.1 percent.
Meanwhile, inflation, the Fed’s other primary concern, looks as though it may at last emerge from years in the doldrums.
Recent inflation measures have fallen short of the Fed’s two percent target but over the past six months, the Consumer Price Index has averaged gains of 2.5 percent — a good predictor that it will soon be heading north, Gagnon said.
In addition to strong job markets and low unemployment, the US now faces an expected short-term boost to growth from the recent $1.5 trillion tax cuts, which comes at a rare moment when all the world’s major economies are growing simultaneously. At the same time oil prices are recovering, while the US dollar is falling — losing 10 percent in value over the last year — making imports more expensive.
But one wildcard in any Fed forecast, economists said: President Donald Trump.
Trump is poised to reshape the Fed’s board of governors, where four vacancies remain, giving him the potential to influence monetary policy for years to come.
He also stokes fears of a trade war on an almost daily basis, most recently announcing punishing tariffs on steel and aluminum.
With top economic adviser Gary Cohn out the door in protest, protectionist views are ascendant in the White House and major trading partners are threatening to retaliate.
That could causes prices to rise even further, spurring the Fed to act faster to keep inflation in check, economists say.
US Fed to raise rates with trade tensions on horizon
US Fed to raise rates with trade tensions on horizon
Oil Updates – prices slip on US gasoline stocks buildup
SINGAPORE: Oil prices drifted lower on Thursday after a surprise jump in US gasoline inventories, with investors focusing on this weekend's OPEC+ meeting to discuss oil output policy, according to Reuters.
However, the OPEC+ oil alliance later announced that the 57th Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting and the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting have been rescheduled to Dec. 5. The group cited the Gulf Cooperation Council Summit, set to take place in Kuwait on Dec. 1, as the reason for the postponement.
Brent crude futures fell by 20 cents, or 0.27 percent, to $72.63 per barrel by 10:17 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 21 cents, or 0.29 percent, at $68.52 a barrel.
Trading is expected to be light due to the US Thanksgiving holidays starting on Thursday.
Oil is likely to retain its near-term bearish momentum as the risks of supply disruption fade in the Middle East and US gasoline inventories stood higher than expected, said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG.
US gasoline stocks rose 3.3 million barrels in the week ending on Nov. 22, the US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, countering expectations for a small draw in fuel stocks ahead of record holiday travel.
Slowing fuel demand growth in top consumers China and the US has weighed heavily on oil prices this year, although supply cuts from OPEC+ have limited the losses.
OPEC+, which pumps about half the world’s oil, will meet on Sunday. Two sources from the producer group told Reuters on Tuesday that members have been discussing a further delay to a planned oil output hike due to have started in January.
A further deferment, as expected by many in the market, has mostly been factored into oil prices already, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank.
“The only question is whether it's a one-month pushback, or three-month, or even longer,” he said.
“That would give the oil market some direction. On the other hand, we would be worried about a dip in oil prices if the deferments don't come.”
OPEC+ had previously said it would gradually roll back oil production cuts with small increases over many months in 2024 and 2025.
Brent and WTI have lost more than 3 percent each so far this week, under pressure from Israel’s agreement to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon’s Hezbollah group. The ceasefire started on Wednesday and helped ease concerns that the conflict could disrupt oil supplies from the Middle East region.
Market participants are uncertain how long the break in fighting will hold, with the broader geopolitical backdrop for oil remaining murky, analysts at ANZ Bank said.
Oil prices are undervalued due to a market deficit, the heads of commodities research at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warned in recent days.
They also pointed to a potential risk to Iranian supply from sanctions that might be adopted under US President-elect Donald Trump.
Saudi Arabia boosts R&D spending to $6bn in 2023 amid Vision 2030 push
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia ramped up its research and development spending to SR22.61 billion ($6.02 billion) in 2023, marking a 17.4 percent increase from the previous year, according to official data.
The General Authority for Statistics reported a rise in R&D personnel, with the workforce reaching 49,337 by the end of 2023, up 12.2 percent year on year. Researchers accounted for 36,832 of this figure, representing a 22.1 percent annual growth.
The Kingdom is prioritizing R&D across sectors like energy, technology, and sustainability as part of its Vision 2030 strategy to diversify its oil-dependent economy.
“The percentage distribution of employees in the field of R&D at the level of different sectors indicates that the number of employees in higher education reached 37,540 employees, representing 76.1 percent, followed by the private sector, with 8,810 employees, at 17.9 percent, then the government sector, with 2,987 employees. at 6.1 percent,” GASTAT noted.
The authority also revealed that Saudi Arabia had 32,209 researchers in higher education by the end of 2023. The private and government sectors employed 2,790 and 1,883 researchers, respectively.
In terms of funding, the government sector accounted for the largest share of R&D spending at SR12.12 billion in 2023, representing 53.6 percent of the total. The private sector contributed SR9.31 billion, while the higher education sector received SR1.17 billion.
When it comes to expenditure, the private sector led with SR8.70 billion spent on R&D, followed by the government sector at SR8.66 billion and the higher education sector at SR5.24 billion.
In August, energy giant Saudi Aramco announced a $100 million commitment to fund research and development at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology over the next decade.
The partnership aims to accelerate innovation in Saudi Arabia and develop commercially viable solutions that support the global energy transition and sustainability goals, according to a press statement.
The agreement will focus on areas including energy transition, sustainability, materials science, upstream technologies, and digital solutions.
Saudi Arabia’s Industrial Development Fund injects $3.19bn into the sector, minister confirms
RIYADH: The Industrial Development Fund provided SR12 billion ($3.19 billion) in financing to the Kingdom in 2024, boosting its global competitiveness, according to leading minister.
Speaking during a panel discussion at the Budget Forum 2024, Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef highlighted the vital role of financing in driving industrial development.
“The Industrial Development Fund alone financed projects worth SR12 billion for 2024, but the total value of these projects exceeds SR60 billion,” Alkhorayef said.
He continued: “We have key indicators for the industrial sector: First, there are the licenses, which have seen significant growth. By the end of this year, more than 1,100 opportunities have been issued, and 900 factories have entered production. This is a very important key indicator.”
The minister went on to say: “The second key indicator is financing. Financing is a crucial driver for the industrial sector. The third key indicator is infrastructure. It is unimaginable to have a thriving industrial sector without properly developed industrial lands, primarily provided by the government.”
These key indicators are of great importance because they ensure the continued flow of investments into the sector, he added.
Alkhorayef also pointed to the Kingdom’s focus on promoting exports and supporting new sectors.
“Exports grew from SR458 billion in 2023 to SR528 billion this year, a 15 percent increase. This growth is largely driven by non-traditional sectors, showcasing the diversification of our economy beyond petrochemicals,” he said.
The minister highlighted the broader integration of industries, particularly between the industrial and mining sectors.
He praised Saudi Arabia’s streamlined approach to mining licenses, reducing wait times from eight to 10 years in advanced economies to just six months in the Kingdom, with plans to further reduce this to 90 days.
Alkhorayef emphasized the long-term vision of transforming Saudi Arabia into a hub for mining services and technology companies.
“Our investment in geological surveys has increased the estimated value of the Kingdom’s mineral wealth from $1.3 trillion to $2.5 trillion. This achievement positions the Kingdom as a future leader in mining and industrial innovation,” he added.
The industrial and logistics sectors have experienced significant momentum, with the government’s efforts driving a surge in private and foreign investment.
By aligning with Vision 2030, these initiatives aim to create a thriving, diversified economy that maximizes the nation’s geographic and resource advantages.
Transport sector achieves record growth and job creation
The Minister of Transport and Logistics Services Saleh Al-Jasser underscored the transport industry’s role as a key enabler of economic activity. He revealed that the sector achieved a 17 percent growth rate in just two years.
“International indicators also confirm this progress, such as the Logistics Performance Index, which saw an improvement of 17 ranks, as well as indicators for air connectivity, maritime connectivity, and road service quality,” Al-Jasser said.
He added: “Among other significant indicators is the reduction in fatalities and severe accidents on roads, achieved through an integrated national effort with other government entities. There is no doubt that progress has also been made across different modes of transport.”
The minister also highlighted that Saudi Arabia’s aviation sector is undergoing significant improvements, with a 50 percent increase in the number of international and domestic destinations connected to the Kingdom compared to pre-pandemic levels.
This reflects the sector’s rapid growth and its role in enhancing connectivity and economic activity.
A key goal of Vision 2030 is to create jobs and provide dignified employment opportunities for citizens.
“Saudi Arabia’s transport sector is at the core of our economic diversification efforts, providing critical infrastructure for all other industries,” Al-Jasser said.
He continued: “Investments exceeding SR447 billion have been made in the sector since the launch of the strategy. This includes more than 300 new aircraft ordered by national airlines, the highest in the Kingdom’s history, alongside significant expansions in logistics zones, maritime infrastructure, and other key areas.”
Al-Jasser highlighted the sector’s role in creating jobs, with 122,000 new employment opportunities generated by the third quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2023.
Additionally, women’s participation in transport has risen to 29 percent, a notable increase in a traditionally male-dominated field.
“The focus on developing local content has been equally impactful,” he emphasized. “The transport system has increased local content from 39 percent to 50 percent, putting us on track to achieve our Vision 2030 target of 60 percent.”
During the same session, the Minister of Communications and Information Technology Abdullah Al-Swaha highlighted Saudi Arabia’s rapid progress in the technology sector, attributing this success to investments in artificial intelligence-native companies and digital transformation.
“Today, companies like Mozn and Amplify are leading the charge in AI and innovative solutions. The Kingdom is positioning itself as a global powerhouse for tech-driven growth,” Al-Swaha said.
He continued: “The next phase will focus on technology manufacturing and exports. With the support of His Royal Highness the Crown Prince, we will further strengthen our National Program for Technology Development to ensure Saudi Arabia’s technological sovereignty and prosperity.”
Al-Swaha emphasized the Kingdom’s commitment to leveraging resources and infrastructure to build a globally competitive tech economy.
“This is a clear message to all tech professionals: we are ready to lead,” he concluded.
Saudi Arabia to introduce VAT refunds for tourists starting in 2025
JEDDAH: In a move aimed at boosting tourism, Saudi Arabia will begin offering refunds on value-added tax for eligible purchases made by tourists starting in 2025, the government announced.
The Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority proposed changes to the VAT Implementing Regulations in August, which were open for public consultation via the Istitlaa platform until Sept. 17. The proposed amendments cover the definition of eligible goods, the refund process, and the role of authorized service providers in handling claims.
This initiative is part of Saudi Arabia’s efforts to enhance its global appeal as a tourist destination under the ambitious Vision 2030 plan. The National Tourism Strategy aims to attract 150 million visitors by the end of the decade and increase tourism’s contribution to the Kingdom’s gross domestic product from 6 percent to 10 percent.
In its 2025 budget statement, the Ministry of Finance noted: “The introduction of VAT refunds for tourists in Saudi Arabia is designed to improve the traveler experience while ensuring tax compliance.”
According to the proposed changes, tourists will be able to claim VAT refunds on goods purchased in Saudi Arabia for personal use, provided the items are taken out of the country. Certain goods, including vehicles, tobacco products, and food, will be excluded from the refund scheme.
Refunds will be processed through authorized service providers, who will verify eligibility, manage claims, and maintain the necessary records. These providers may charge a commission for their services, while ZATCA will retain the authority to review and reject claims if necessary.
The proposal defines a tourist as someone who is not a permanent resident of Saudi Arabia or any other Gulf Cooperation Council state that applies VAT. Transport crew members and other specific categories will be excluded. Tourists from GCC countries will be treated as non-GCC visitors until a unified VAT refund system is established across the region.
ZATCA’s governor will oversee the implementation of the refund system, including setting the conditions for eligible goods, processing refund requests, and authorizing service providers.
The VAT refund initiative is part of broader efforts to position Saudi Arabia as a leading global tourism destination. By refining tax policies and enhancing the shopping experience for international visitors, the Kingdom aims to attract higher spending and stimulate growth in the tourism sector.
This move also reflects Saudi Arabia’s focus on economic diversification and robust tax governance, reinforcing its competitiveness as a global hub for both tourism and investment.
Saudi Arabia sets new unemployment rate target of 5% by 2030, minister reveals
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has revised its unemployment rate target to 5 percent by 2030, down from the previous goal of 7 percent, as part of Vision 2030’s ambitions, an official revealed.
During a panel discussion at the Budget Forum 2024, the Minister of Human Resources and Social Development Ahmed Al-Rajhi detailed the Kingdom’s strides toward improving employment figures.
“The unemployment rate among Saudis was 12.8 percent in 2018, and today it has dropped to 7.1 percent. The Vision 2030 target was to reduce Saudi unemployment to 7 percent by 2030, a milestone we have achieved six years ahead of schedule,” Al-Rajhi said.
He added: “For this reason, His Royal Highness the Crown Prince directed a review of this target, and now we have a new ambition: to reduce the unemployment rate among Saudis to 5 percent by 2030.”
The move highlights Saudi Arabia’s progress in building a robust labor market and achieving economic diversification under its reform agenda.
The human resources and social development system is deeply involved in implementing Vision 2030, contributing to eight of its 11 key programs and managing six specific workforce and social development strategies.
“One of the achievements of the system, and the government as a whole, is that this year we have achieved an overall unemployment rate of 3.3 percent, down from 6 percent in 2018,” Al-Rajhi said.
Regarding women’s involvement, the economic participation rate of females has reached 35 percent, exceeding the Vision 2030 target of 30 percent by 2030.
“We have surpassed the goal by 5 percent seven years ahead of schedule, and we now have a new target to aim for,” the minister said.
He continued: “The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development has implemented 84 percent of the Labor Market Strategy over the past four years, creating 300,000 jobs in specialized professions such as engineering, accounting, pharmacy, and radiology. These efforts align with Vision 2030’s emphasis on building a future-ready workforce.”
Al-Rajhi explained that the Kingdom has been tasked with updating this strategy, and the ministry submitted a new ambitious plan to elevate the Saudi labor market to one of the strongest globally.
“The second phase of this strategy is now awaiting government approval,” he said.
To further strengthen the labor market, the ministry has launched initiatives like the Waad program in partnership with the private sector, which has provided over 1.3 million training opportunities to date.
Additionally, labor regulations have been overhauled, with more than 38 articles amended to ensure a modern and adaptable workforce framework.
New insurance products, such as domestic worker insurance and labor market insurance, have also been introduced to safeguard employees and employers.
“Regarding beneficiary satisfaction: previously, the ministry in the labor sector received 60,000 visitors to its branches across the Kingdom each month,” Al-Rajhi said.
He added: “After launching the automation service and targeting zero visits, the number has now dropped to 3,000 beneficiaries per month.”
The Minister of Education Youssef Al-Benyan highlighted the ministry’s efforts in aligning its strategies with Vision 2030.
He emphasized the cumulative nature of transformation in the education sector, pointing out that the ministry has been building on progress from previous years to achieve sustainable development.
“The allocation for the 2025 budget exceeds SR200 billion ($42.09 billion),” Al-Benyan said, underscoring the government’s significant investment in education.
He explained that this funding reflects the ministry’s comprehensive approach to enhancing spending efficiency, institutional performance, and transformation.
“Today, if we talk about 2025, we must also briefly discuss 2024 and previous years, where the Ministry of Education has been building on cumulative progress,” Al-Benyan said.
He continued: “This reflects a professional culture that needs to be strengthened within the government system— that work is cumulative, and transformation is a gradual, ongoing process.”
Al-Benyan also mentioned the ministry’s focus on embedding a professional culture of long-term planning within government systems.
He said: “Spending efficiency is not solely the responsibility of the financial sector but a collaborative effort across various sectors. This is why we have revisited the operational system’s role in the ministry to ensure alignment with broader national goals.”
The minister highlighted the importance of education as a foundational pillar for Saudi Arabia’s economic and social development.
This includes investing in academic and operational infrastructure, supporting the Kingdom’s workforce needs, and ensuring the education system meets global standards.