KARACHI: When Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index hit an intra-day all-time high of 53,124 points on May 25, 2017, hardly any analysts were ready to look back as the majority of them were eyeing 56,000 as the next level before the country moved into the election year, but it turned out to be a mere dream, equity analysts say.
The start of 2017, was euphoric at Pakistan’s equity market and the main index hit a high of 52,876, but circumstances reversed and the index sunk as low as 37,919 points by the end of the year.
“Political turmoil (cases against former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif), a weak economy and disappointing foreign flows in the equity market were the major causes that put PSX in the reverse gear,” Zeeshan Afzal, executive director-research at Insight Securities, told Arab News.
The market’s worst performance mainly in the later half of 2017 still continues, and the stakeholders expect that the trend will not reverse till the elections are over. The results of the elections will set the future direction of the market.
Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) faces tough challenges after the conviction and imprisonment of Mian Nawaz Sharif. Analysts believe that the PTI will take advantage of the situation and may be in a position to make the next government.
“A polarized political landscape akin to the 1990s, with marginalization of PML-N’s grass root support and swing momentum in favor of the PTI, should underpin the formation of a coalition government at the center,” according to AKD Research.
Pakistan’s 105 million voters will decide about the new government on Wednesday (July 25), in one of the most tightly contested elections in Pakistan’s history.
Nabeel Khursheed, analyst at Topline Securities, says: “We believe one of the following scenarios can unfold: first, the PTI grabs 85-95 seats and forms a coalition with smaller parties and independents; second, the PML-N grabs 80-90 seats and forms a coalition with the PPP, smaller parties and independents; and third, the PTI and PML-N get less than 80 seats.
“In the first scenario the market may react positively as this outcome is expected to lead to a stable government. In the case of the second scenario, the immediate reaction of the market will be negative as former PM and PML-N party head Nawaz Sharif has called the upcoming general elections a referendum against his disqualification. The market may react positively in the long run. In the case of a third scenario the market will react negatively as there will be a brief confusion,” Khursheed explains.
Analysts say no matter who wins the election, the winner should have a clear majority.
“The market will take a positive turn if any party gets a majority or even gets the ability to make a strong coalition government because the split mandate would be negative. The winning of PML-N or PTI will be positive for the market,” Zeeshan Afzal said.
“If the PML-N wins the election with a majority, the market is expected to react positively because they had driven the market to its highest level and investors believe that they will continue with their policies. Investors will react to the elections of others according to the policies of the parties,” Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive of Arif Habib Group, told Arab News.
Analysts believe that whoever makes the next government will have to face tremendous pressure in the first month: There will be no time for a honeymoon because the worst economic situation demands immediate attention.
“The next government will have to show its seriousness about the economic situation. Going to the IMF would be an unfavorable choice as its program will come up with conditions the government will have to meet. Further monetary tightening will turn the investors to other avenues,” Amin Yousuf, CEO of AKY Securities, told Arab News.
“Who will invest in the stock market in a high-interest rate regime,” Yousuf asked, adding: “Investors will turn to other avenues like secured government savings. There will be no more foreign investment in equities as long as the Pak rupee instability persists.”
Two working days are left until the general election. During this period the investors’ interest is likely to remain glued to election euphoria. The vulnerable economic position and persistent foreign selling remain major concerns for valuations.
The interim government has also started preparatory work for a fresh IMF program. In this environment banks, oil and gas exploration and the production sector, and independent power producers are expected to perform well. Persistent foreign selling owing to the sliding Pak rupee, the US interest rate liftoff and the global trade war may continue to drag the index.
Election results to set direction of Pakistan’s stock market
Election results to set direction of Pakistan’s stock market
- Weak coalition government may create confusion among investors
- Political uncertainty, weak economy keep Pakistan stock market under pressure
Saudi Arabia launches company to transform Asir into global tourism hub
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Asir region has launched a new tourism venture through a partnership with the aim of creating a holding company to transform the area into a global tourist destination.
The collaboration between Aseer Investment Co., a subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund, and Rikaz Real Estate, aligns with the goal of transforming Asir into a world-class tourist destination that combines authentic heritage with sustainable development, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
The holding company seeks to contribute to enhancing a tourism environment that enriches guests’ experiences with unique offerings, connecting visitors to local culture and community traditions, SPA reported.
It is also committed to promoting sustainable tourism by protecting the environment, developing local communities, and collaborating with artisans and local businesses to preserve the authenticity of Asir’s heritage.
In October, the Kingdom’s Abha city secured a new investment partnership to boost tourism by developing culturally rich dining and retail experiences.
PIF firm Aseer Investment Co. signed the deal with Nimr Real Estate and the National Co. for Tourism, or Syahya, to propel the project, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
This aligns with the objectives of developing Abha, which will offer a range of benefits, including retail stores that reflect the cultural heritage of the Asir region.
The partnership also seeks to be a model for multiple collaborations with private sector investors and create more regional job opportunities.
Investments in the region are expected to create between 14,000 and 18,000 job prospects and contribute to up to 6 percent of the non-oil gross domestic product within 10 years, as outlined by AIC Chief Executive Osama Al-Othman in February.
Saudi Arabia emerged as a leader in tourism growth among G20 nations, experiencing a 73 percent increase in international visitors in the first seven months of 2024 compared to 2019.
According to the UN World Tourism Barometer report in September, the Kingdom welcomed 17.5 million international tourists during this timeframe, showcasing its growing allure as a global travel destination.
This surge is part of the nation’s Vision 2030 initiative, which aims to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on oil revenues.
“Saudi Arabia cements its global leadership and takes the first spot among G20 countries in international tourist arrivals growth, with a 73 percent increase in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2019,” stated the Saudi Tourism Ministry on X.
Under the National Tourism Strategy, the Kingdom aims to attract 150 million visitors by 2030 and increase the sector’s contribution to the nation’s gross domestic product from 6 percent to 10 percent.
These goals reflect the country’s commitment to strengthening its tourism sector and enhancing its global appeal.
IMF, Saudi Arabia announce new annual conference tackling global economic challenges
RIYADH: The International Monetary Fund and Saudi Arabia will jointly organize a high-level annual conference in AlUla to discuss global economic challenges, it has been announced.
The AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies will bring together a select group of finance ministers, central bank governors, and policymakers, along with leaders from the public and private sectors, representatives from international institutions, and members of academia.
According to a joint statement by Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of IMF and the Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan, the first edition of this series will be held from Feb. 16-17, 2025.
“The world is confronting deeper and more frequent shocks, including from conflicts, geoeconomic fragmentation, pandemics, climate change, food insecurity, and the digital divide,” according to the statement.
They continued: “If not addressed adequately, these shocks put at risk emerging market economies’ hard-won improvements in living standards. Such setbacks would affect large segments of the world population and put at risk global growth and macro-financial stability.”
The gathering will offer a platform to exchange views on domestic, regional, and global economic developments and discuss policies and reforms to spur inclusive prosperity and build resilience supported by international cooperation.
Recent economic issues affecting the global landscape include rising inflation rates, driven by supply chain disruptions and increased demand for goods post-pandemic.
Supply chain delays continue to impact the availability of essential products, causing bottlenecks in manufacturing and increasing costs.
Additionally, geopolitical conflicts, such as the war in Gaza, have disrupted energy supplies and food exports, leading to global food insecurity and fuel price volatility.
Concerns over the using the Red Sea shipping lane increased dramatically at the end of 2023, when Houthi militants stepped up attacks on vessels in the wake of the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
The effects of these challenges pose significant risks to economic stability, especially for emerging markets that are more vulnerable to such global shocks.
The AlUla conference is the latest example of the growing relationship between Saudi Arabia and the IMF, with the organization in April establishing its first office in the Middle East and North Africa region in Riyadh.
The facility was launched during the Joint Regional Conference on Industrial Policy for Diversification, jointly organized by the IMF and the Ministry of Finance, on April 24.
The new office aims to strengthen capacity building, regional surveillance, and outreach to foster stability, growth, and integration, thereby promoting partnerships in the Middle East and beyond, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
The work hub will promote closer collaboration between the IMF and regional institutions, governments, and other stakeholders, according to the SPA report.
The IMF also expressed its gratitude to the Kingdom for its financial contribution aimed at supporting capacity development in member countries, including fragile states.
Closing Bell: Saudi Arabia’s TASI ends in the red, trading volume hits $2.95bn
RIYADH: The Tadawul All Share Index concluded the last session of the week at 11,791.18 points, down by 139.27 points or 1.17 percent.
The MSCI Tadawul 30 Index also saw a decline, dropping 19.18 points to close at 1,481.36, reflecting a 1.28 percent loss. In contrast, the parallel market Nomu finished Thursday’s trading at 29,467.71 points, up 262.18 points or 0.90 percent.
TASI reported a trading volume of SR11.10 billion ($2.95 billion), with 51 stocks advancing and 182 declining. The top performer of the day was Saudi Cable Co., which saw its share price surge by 5.10 percent to SR92.70.
Other strong performers included Shatirah House Restaurant Co., which gained 3.75 percent to reach SR21, and Arabian Mills for Food Products Co., which rose by 3.08 percent to SR53.60. Naseej International Trading Co. and Saudi Real Estate Co. also posted notable gains.
The worst performer was Saudi Real Estate Co., which dropped 4.94 percent to close at SR10. Alkhaleej Training and Education Co. and Red Sea International Co. also suffered significant losses, with their share prices falling by 4.90 percent to SR29.10 and 4.84 percent to SR68.80, respectively. Astra Industrial Group and Al-Omran Industrial Trading Co. were also among the day’s largest decliners.
On the parallel market, Nomu, Alqemam for Computer Systems Co. was the top gainer, rising by 9.57 percent to SR103. Other gainers included Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars Co., which climbed 9.10 percent to SR42.55, and Horizon Educational Co., which rose by 7.58 percent to SR79.50. Mulkia Investment Co. and Knowledge Tower Trading Co. also saw significant increases.
On the losing side of Nomu, WSM for Information Technology Co. recorded the largest drop, with its share price falling by 6.18 percent to SR44. Osool and Bakheet Investment Co. and Natural Gas Distribution Co. also experienced notable declines, with their shares dropping by 5.37 percent to SR37.85 and 5 percent to SR57, respectively.
Leaders stress urgent need for climate finance at COP29 ministerial dialogue
RIYADH: Global climate finance continues to fall short of expectations, as leaders gathered at the COP29 Ministerial Dialogue on Climate Finance to address ongoing challenges and map out next steps.
The meeting, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, underscored the urgent need for increased and more effective funding mechanisms. COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev emphasized that climate finance plays a central role in the broader negotiations.
“The urgency of the situation is evident,” Babayev remarked, pointing to the severe impacts of climate change observed over the past year. “Recently, we witnessed catastrophic flooding in Spain, and in the Pacific region, island communities are faced with the possibility of being wiped out entirely. We must act now; failure to do so will have grave human and economic costs.”
The president stressed the importance of fulfilling the $100 billion-per-year commitment made in Copenhagen and reiterated in Paris, urging leaders to reflect on lessons learned and consider the quality and allocation of financial resources.
Developing countries once again voiced the need for tangible action, with Fiji’s Deputy Prime Minister Biman Prasad highlighting the importance of aligning climate finance with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
“This is a ‘put your money where your mouth is’ moment,” Prasad said. “The 1.5°C temperature goal and the Paris Agreement itself will not be deliverable from both an economic and scientific perspective if we do not invest right. The New Collective Quantified Goal is critical for aligning our priorities and addressing major inconsistencies,” he added.
The EU reaffirmed its commitment to climate finance, noting that the $100 billion goal was first collectively met in 2022, with contributions reaching $115.9 billion.
“The EU and its member states contributed €28.5 billion, or around $30 billion, in climate finance from public sources,” a representative said. “Almost half of the public funding came in the form of grants, with a significant portion provided on concessional terms. We need to make further efforts to facilitate the mobilization of private funding, as it remains a key source of climate finance,” the representative added.
Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, emphasized the critical juncture at which the global community now finds itself.
“The huge opportunities we have and the terrible risks we face are real,” Stiell said. “It’s time to take action to bridge gaps, solve problems, and come together to ensure climate finance and climate action benefit everyone.”
Sweden also announced a significant new contribution, with Ministerial representatives unveiling an $8 billion Swedish krona ($723.6 million) pledge to the second replenishment of the Green Climate Fund.
“This makes Sweden the largest per capita donor to the GCF among the larger donors,” the Swedish representative noted.
As discussions progressed, leaders acknowledged the widening gap between current financial commitments and the funds required to meet the 1.5°C target. There were calls for more robust mobilization of both public and private finance.
The COP29 president concluded: “Delivering the climate fairness that developing countries need is one of the main metrics of shared success. We can learn from past efforts to inform the road ahead, but significant determination and leadership from all parties are required to bridge these critical gaps.”
IsDB, multilateral banks aim for $120bn in annual climate finance by 2030
RIYADH: Multilateral development banks are aiming to mobilize $120 billion annually by 2030 for climate financing in low- and middle-income countries, according to recent projections.
This ambitious funding goal includes $42 billion dedicated to climate adaptation efforts, with an additional $65 billion expected to come from private sector investments.
The target was unveiled in a joint statement issued during COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, by several prominent MDBs, including the Islamic Development Bank, African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Development Bank of the Council of Europe, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the European Investment Bank. Additionally, the Inter-American Development Bank, the New Development Bank, and the World Bank Group are part of the initiative.
The statement emphasized that setting a strong, collective climate finance target is crucial to meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.
“A new collective quantitative target on climate finance that is both strong and ambitious is essential to achieving the Paris Agreement’s objectives,” the statement read. “We urge parties to reach a robust conclusion on this target.”
For high-income countries, the MDBs have set a target of $50 billion in annual climate finance, including $7 billion specifically for adaptation, with private sector mobilization expected to generate an additional $65 billion. This new target builds on the success of previous climate finance goals, with MDBs already surpassing their climate financing projections for 2025. Since 2019, the MDBs have increased direct climate finance by 25 percent and doubled climate mobilization efforts over the past year.
In response to the urgent need for enhanced climate action, the MDBs also emphasized the importance of establishing a new collective quantitative target for climate finance at COP29. The institutions highlighted their commitment to ensuring that the finance provided leads to meaningful, measurable impacts on both climate mitigation and adaptation.
To further enhance the effectiveness of climate finance, the MDBs released the “Common Approach to Measuring Climate Outcomes,” a framework that provides standardized indicators for tracking global progress on climate mitigation and adaptation. This framework aims to better align MDB activities with global climate goals and improve transparency in measuring outcomes.
Additionally, the MDBs published their “Country Climate Action Platforms,” reaffirming their commitment to strengthening collaboration between host countries, MDBs, donors, and the private sector. These platforms are designed to ensure that climate finance is targeted effectively and that developing countries have the support they need to implement robust climate policies.
COP29 has emerged as a critical moment in global climate negotiations, especially for the Global South, where developing nations are pushing for significant climate financing, stronger adaptation measures, and equitable policy outcomes. These countries continue to advocate for a climate finance framework based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, recognizing that nations’ contributions should reflect their respective capabilities and historical responsibilities.
