ISTANBUL: Three, four, five, six… What next?
Turks have over the last half decade counted the rapid depreciation of the Turkish lira on the screens outside doviz (exchange) booths with a mixture of bewilderment, alarm and ironic amusement.
The currency had spent much of 2014 hovering at just over two to the dollar but broke through the three mark for the first time after the 2016 failed coup bid and then slid to four earlier this year.
But the haemorrhaging reached an unprecedented intensity in the last weeks as Turkey’s ties with the US strained further and markets questioned their trust in Turkish policymakers, pushing the currency to five against the dollar.
A new bout of selling Friday on increased strains with the US forced the lira over six against the dollar for the first time, with the currency at one point shredding a quarter of its value in a single day.
Economists say that while the government may be tempted to muddle through the current situation in the hope the external and economic background improves, the lira’s fall harbors considerable dangers for the economy, in particular the banking system.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s current dash for growth coupled with unorthodox pronouncements on monetary policy — including that lower rates can bring down inflation — have put him on a collision course with markets.
The central bank, nominally independent but never defying Erdogan, appears to have abandoned the conventional monetary policy of using rates hikes as a tool to support the currency and bring down inflation.
Erdogan’s “tight grip” on the central bank and the fact “higher interest rates do no fit with Turkey’s economic growth strategy” meant that the central bank has kept interest rates on hold, Nora Neuteboom, economist at ABN Amro, told AFP.
“Erdogan’s aim is to improve the economic position of households,” she said, adding the government wanted to “keep the music playing” even as external and internal imbalances grow.
After his June 24 election victory, Erdogan put his son-in-law Berat Albayrak in charge of a newly expanded finance ministry while a new presidential system did away with the office of prime minister, whose last incumbent Binali Yildirim had on occasion urged caution in economic policy.
The new system also increased Erdogan’s control over the central bank, which on July 24 baffled markets by leaving rates unchanged despite inflation that in July came in at 15.85 percent.
“The markets have lost confidence in the triumvirate of President Erdogan, his son-in-law as finance minister and the Turkish Central Bank’s ability to act as it needs to,” said Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital.
According to the Capital Economics consultancy, the plunge in the lira risks putting further pressure on the banking sector in Turkey due to the scale of the credit boom and one third of bank lending being denominated in foreign currencies.
“If some of these vulnerabilities crystalize they could tip the economy into a full blown crisis,” said its economist Yasemin Engin.
US investment bank Goldman Sachs alarmed investors with an assessment that a further drop in the lira to 7.1 to the dollar “could largely erode” the excess capital of Turkish banks.
As the lira tumbled in value — with no breakthrough in sight in the impasse with the US, sparked by the jailing of American pastor Andrew Brunson — the government has remained sanguine with few comments aimed at rallying markets.
The issue has also largely stayed off the front pages of mainstream Turkish newspapers, where critical Turkish economists are given little space, leaving social media as the main forum of debate.
“The pro-government media is diverting attention by showing movies and series,” complained Mustafa outside an exchange booth close to Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar.
The external value of the lira is not a prime concern of Erdogan’s core supporters, many of whom have no plans for foreign holidays and readily accept government rhetoric that economic problems are caused by outsiders seeking to weaken Turkey.
“I have full confidence in this government, I’m sure it will find a way out and reverse the trend,” said Erdogan supporter Sabahattin.
Should the woes of the lira risk feeding into a widescale economic crisis, the government still has levers at its disposal.
It could impose capital controls on forex transfers or even call on the IMF for bailout help, although economists regard the former an extreme measure with only marginal probability and the latter unlikely given one of Erdogan’s proudest achievements was paying off all of Turkey’s IMF debt in 2013.
But he could also swallow his pride and allow the central bank to make an emergency rate hike as it did on May 23 one month ahead of the elections, when a 300 basis points hike in the headline rate was announced.
“Erdogan is pragmatic,” commented Neuteboom.
“And if the situation continues to deteriorate and the lira depreciation and high inflation have a too big an impact on the economic situation — and that is what it looks like right now — he will in the end give in.”
Turkey’s lira crisis: How bad can it get?
Turkey’s lira crisis: How bad can it get?
- Relations with US turn increasingly sour
- Selling pushes lira to five to the dollar
S&P Global forecasts 4.7% GDP growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025
RIYADH: S&P Global has projected steady growth for Saudi Arabia’s economy, forecasting a 0.8 percent gross domestic product increase in 2024 and a robust 4.7 percent in 2025.
The agency’s adjustments to its earlier forecasts reflect a recalibration of oil production assumptions, now expected at 9.5 million barrels per day in 2025, down from 9.7 million.
The Kingdom’s non-oil sector continues to exhibit strong potential, supporting Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification efforts.
S&P also anticipated low and stable inflation in the Kingdom, forecasting rates of 1.8 percent in 2024 and 1.7 percent in 2025, highlighting the country’s success in maintaining price stability amid global economic volatility.
The agency reduced its real GDP growth forecasts for emerging markets by 10 basis points for both 2025 and 2026, now projecting growth rates of 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.
The Kingdom saw the largest downward revision for 2025, with a reduction of 60 bps, followed by Hungary and Mexico.
“In Saudi Arabia, our revision reflects lower oil production assumptions than previously anticipated,” S&P stated.
The report cited recent OPEC+ announcements and trends in global oil markets as factors behind the adjusted projections for Saudi oil output.
S&P also revised its forecasts for other regions. South Africa’s GDP growth projections were raised to 1 percent in 2024 and 1.6 percent in 2025, driven by strong retail sales and a new pension scheme boosting household consumption. While infrastructure challenges remain, ongoing reforms could enhance long-term growth prospects.
In Southeast Asia, S&P noted heightened uncertainty due to reliance on trade and slowing growth in China.
However, domestic demand remains resilient, supported by sectors like IT, finance, and a recovering tourism industry. Manufacturing, particularly electronics, continues to perform well, and inflation is under control, enabling some central banks to ease monetary policy.
S&P upgraded growth forecasts for Malaysia and Vietnam, citing strong electronics supply chains and resilient domestic demand. Vietnam also benefits from recovering financial and real estate sectors. India’s growth remains robust but is expected to moderate after April 2025 due to slowing consumer momentum and challenges in the rural economy.
The Philippines is projected to see slightly slower growth due to softer consumption, though infrastructure investment will provide medium-term support. Indonesia and Thailand maintain stable outlooks, with emerging sectors like electric vehicles and fiscal stimulus driving development.
S&P also highlighted downside risks to global growth, particularly from uncertainties in US trade policy under President-elect Trump.
While the agency assumed a modest tariff increase between the US and China, it warned that more aggressive measures could significantly disrupt global trade and demand.
Tariffs targeting additional countries could amplify these effects, increasing risk premia and tightening financial conditions for emerging markets, especially those with weaker fundamentals.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated, particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has escalated with ballistic missile launches.
According to S&P, this uncertainty could heighten risk aversion toward emerging market assets and impact commodity prices.
Islamic banking in Kuwait and Oman stable amid favorable conditions: Fitch Ratings
RIYADH: The standalone credit profiles of Islamic banks in Kuwait are expected to remain stable in 2025, supported by favorable operating conditions, according to a recent analysis by Fitch Ratings.
The report highlighted that Islamic banking remains a significant sector in Kuwait, accounting for 49 percent of total banking sector assets by the end of the first half of this year.
This follows a similar forecast from Moody’s in September, which predicted faster growth for Islamic financing compared to conventional banking. Moody’s cited rising demand for Shariah-compliant products and the inherent stability of Islamic banks’ net profit margins as key drivers.
Fitch Ratings noted that capital at Kuwaiti Islamic banks remains adequate, supported by moderate growth and steady profitability in 2024 and 2025.
“As for conventional banks, we view Islamic banks’ profitability to have peaked, and we expect earnings to slightly decline in 2025 following expected rate cuts,” said Fitch Ratings.
The credit rating agency noted that funding at Kuwaiti Islamic banks remains strong, with 80 percent sourced from customer deposits.
The report also highlighted a slight increase in the average impaired financing ratio among Islamic banks in Kuwait, rising to 2 percent by the end of the first half, driven by pressure from higher rates and slower financing growth.
“The average financing impairment charges/average gross financing ratio increased slightly in the first half of 2024 but remains well below the pandemic level. Relatively high real estate exposure and concentration are key risks to the bank’s asset quality. Fitch expects asset quality to be stable in 2024-2025,” added Fitch.
Oman’s Islamic finance sector expanding
In a separate report, Fitch Ratings indicated that Omani Islamic banks are benefiting from favorable economic conditions, improving asset quality, stable profitability, and reasonable liquidity.
The total assets of Omani Islamic banks stood at $21.3 billion by the end of the third quarter of this year, with the Islamic banking sector holding a market share of 18.7 percent of the country’s total banking assets.
Fitch pointed to several factors driving the growth of Islamic finance in Oman, including increasing public demand, deeper distribution channels, the use of sukuk by both the government and corporates, and regulatory initiatives.
“The Central Bank of Oman addressed a structural gap in October 2024 with the introduction of the Bank Deposit Protection Law, which would protect Islamic banks’ deposits,” said Fitch.
“We expect this will aid confidence in Oman’s Islamic banking sector as the previous deposits insurance scheme only covered conventional banks’ deposits,” it added.
The report forecast that Oman’s Islamic finance sector will surpass $40 billion in the medium term, with Fitch estimating its total value at $30.9 billion by the end of September 2024.
According to the analysis, the Omani debt capital market reached $45 billion in outstanding debt by the end of the third quarter. There is no expectation of a significant short-term surge, as the government continues to prepay more of its debt using the budget surplus generated by high oil prices.
Fitch also highlighted Oman’s growing sukuk issuance, which increased by 86 percent year on year to $2 billion in the first nine months of 2024, outpacing conventional bond issuance, which rose 53 percent to $5.6 billion during the same period.
Fitch stated: “The Omani Islamic finance sector remains one of the smallest in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council),” and pointed out that it continues to face several challenges.
These challenges include “the lack of Islamic liquidity-management instruments and smaller capital bases compared to the conventional banks,” which, according to Fitch, “could restrict their involvement in major government financing projects.”
However, Fitch emphasized the sector’s long-term growth potential, citing recent regulatory developments and Oman’s predominantly Muslim population as key factors supporting future expansion.
Saudi Aramco maintains propane, butane prices for December
RIYADH: The Saudi Arabian Oil Co., also known as Saudi Aramco, kept its December contract prices unchanged month on month at $635 per tonne, according to an official statement
The company also maintained butane prices for the month at $630 per tonne.
Propane and butane are types of liquefied petroleum gas with different boiling points. LPG is commonly used as a fuel for vehicles, heating, and as a feedstock for various petrochemicals.
Aramco’s OSPs for LPG are used as a benchmark for contracts supplying the product from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region.
In winter, the demand for propane rises significantly due to its use in heating homes, which can lead to higher prices if supply struggles to keep up.
Such fluctuations are a normal part of the market and are expected during colder months. The increase in prices reflects the basic economic principle of supply and demand, with higher demand resulting in higher costs.
Mawani, Lloyd’s Register ink deal to streamline maritime operations
RIYADH: The Saudi Ports Authority has signed an agreement with the UK’s Lloyd’s Register to unify and streamline operational and maritime procedures across Saudi ports.
The deal is set to enhance efficiency by developing comprehensive manuals and guidelines, including quality and environmental procedure manuals that align with International Organization for Standardization standards, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
The collaboration aligns with Mawani’s efforts to improve operational excellence at ports and strengthen Saudi Arabia’s connectivity with global markets, thus boosting national exports. As part of the partnership, the Saudi Ports Authority aims to double the container throughput capacity at its ports, from 20 million containers to over 40 million.
This goal is part of Saudi Arabia’s broader vision to modernize its logistics infrastructure under the National Transport and Logistics Strategy, which targets increasing the sector's contribution to gross domestic from 6 percent to 10 percent.
The deal also seeks to define clear responsibilities through a code of good practices, ensuring compliance with updated International Maritime Organization agreements.
Additionally, the partnership will help secure international certifications such as ISO 9001:2015 for quality management and ISO 14001:2015 for environmental management, further enhancing operational efficiency, customer satisfaction, and sustainability practices.
As part of the cooperation, comprehensive training programs will be offered to port employees, including courses on ISO standards, maritime certifications, and the latest inspection and safety protocols. Digital solutions and cutting-edge technologies will also be integrated to support sustainable operations and improve overall port competence.
Lloyd’s Register, a renowned maritime classification society established over 260 years ago, is one of the most prestigious organizations in the global maritime sector. The company operates in 81 offices worldwide and serves over 40,000 clients across the maritime and logistics industries.
Aramco launches global innovation award for robotics excellence at WRO 2024
Aramco has partnered with the Aston Martin Aramco Formula One® Team and World Robot Olympiad to launch the Aramco Innovation Award, a new global honor recognizing excellence in robotics design and technology.
The award aims to inspire and reward young innovators who excel in creativity, problem-solving, critical thinking and technical skills.
The first Aramco Innovation Award will be presented at the 2024 World Robot Olympiad international final, which will take place from Nov. 28-30 in İzmir, Turkiye.
It will be given to the winning team of the future innovators category (senior age group). More than 5,500 teams and 15,000 students from around the world will compete for the award.
At the international final, 48 teams from 45 countries are eligible to win.
The prize includes an exclusive Aston Martin Aramco Formula One® Team Innovation Experience, which features a tour of the AMR Technology Campus in Silverstone, the home of British motorsport.
Khalid A. Al-Zamil, Aramco vice president of public affairs, said: “We’re excited to launch the Aramco Innovation Award as part of our dedication to developing future science, technology, engineering and math innovators. By partnering with Aston Martin Aramco Formula One® Team and World Robot Olympiad, we aim to inspire young minds to explore new possibilities in robotics and encourage the next generation of STEM careers.”
Luca Furbatto, engineering director, Aston Martin Aramco Formula One® Team, said: “We are thrilled to work with our partner Aramco to offer this insightful tour of our technology campus in Silverstone to the winners of the Aramco Innovation Award. It allows students the chance to see how a Formula One® team operates, and we expect it will help to inspire the next generation of designers and engineers through STEM opportunities.”
The Aramco Innovation Award celebrates young innovators who use robotics to address real-world challenges. By recognizing these achievements, Aramco and its partners are investing in future technology leaders who will help to shape the technologies of tomorrow’s world.
Claus Ditlev Christensen, secretary general of WRO, said: “Introducing the Aramco Innovation Award at this year’s WRO international final represents our ongoing mission to inspire young innovators. This collaboration with Aramco and Aston Martin Aramco Formula One® Team gives students an extraordinary chance to experience the latest technology. We believe these future leaders have the potential to drive the next wave of advancements in robotics.”
