SINGAPORE: Oil prices nudged higher on Friday on signs of surging demand in China, the world’s second-biggest oil user, though prices are set to fall for a second week amid concerns of the ongoing Sino-US trade war is limiting overall economic activity.
Brent crude oil futures were trading at $79.51 per barrel at 0521 GMT, up 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 19 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $68.84 a barrel.
For the week, Brent crude was 1.1 percent lower while WTI futures were down 3.5 percent, putting both on track for a second consecutive weekly decline.
Refinery throughput in China, the world’s second-largest oil importer, rose to a record high of 12.49 million barrels per day (bpd) in September as some independent plants restarted operations after prolonged shutdowns over summer to shore up inventories, government data showed on Friday.
The refinery consumption may rise through the fourth quarter as several state-owned Chinese refiners return to service after maintenance.
Undermining the strong refinery data, China did on Friday report its weakest economic growth since 2009 in the third quarter, with gross domestic product expanding by only 6.5 percent, missing estimates.
The weak economic data raised concerns that the country’s trade war with United States is beginning to have an impact on growth, which may limit China’s oil demand.
The trade war concerns combined with surging US oil stockpiles reported on Thursday are capping the day’s price gains.
US crude stocks last week climbed 6.5 million barrels, the fourth straight weekly build, almost triple the amount analysts had forecast, the US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.
“EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report was a complete shocker sending Oil markets spiraling lower amidst some concerning development for oil bulls,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading APAC at OANDA in Singapore.
Inventories rose sharply even as US crude production slipped 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.9 million bpd last week due to the effects of offshore facilities closing temporarily for Hurricane Michael.
Meanwhile, Iranian oil exports may have increased in October when compared to the previous month as buyers rush to lift more cargoes ahead of looming US sanctions that kick in on Nov. 4.
An unprecedented volume of Iranian crude oil is set to arrive at China’s northeast Dalian port this month and in early November before US sanctions on Iran take effect, according to an Iranian shipping source and data on Refinitiv Eikon.
So far, a total of 22 million barrels of Iranian crude oil loaded on supertankers owned by the National Iranian Tanker Co. are expected to arrive at Dalian in October and November, the data showed. Dalian typically receives between 1 million and 3 million barrels of Iranian oil each month, according to data that dates back to January 2015.
Oil prices edge up, but set for weekly loss on inventory build, US-China trade row
Oil prices edge up, but set for weekly loss on inventory build, US-China trade row
- US crude stocks last week climbed 6.5 million barrels, the fourth straight weekly build, almost triple the amount analysts had forecast
- An unprecedented volume of Iranian crude oil is set to arrive at China’s northeast Dalian port this month
Saudi Arabia’s refined crude exports hit 23-month high at 1.54m bpd
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s refinery crude exports surged 23 percent in September compared to the previous month, to reach 1.54 million barrels per day – the highest level for almost two years.
According to figures from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative, the increase to a 23-month high was fueled by strong demand for refined products, including diesel, motor gasoline, aviation gasoline, and fuel oil.
Diesel led the export mix, accounting for 47 percent of shipments, with volumes rising 35 percent month on month to 727,000 bpd. Motor and aviation gasoline made up 23 percent of exports, while fuel oil contributed 7 percent.
Refinery output in Saudi Arabia remained steady at 2.76 million bpd, with diesel representing 44 percent of refined products, followed by motor and aviation gasoline at 25 percent, and fuel oil at 17 percent.
Crude oil exports rose modestly by 1.41 percent to 5.75 million bpd, while production edged down by 0.19 percent to 8.97 million bpd.
Despite the rise in exports, domestic petroleum demand dropped sharply by 267,000 bpd to 2.62 million bpd, possibly due to seasonal factors and improved efficiency.
OPEC announced in November that eight key OPEC+ nations, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, have agreed to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million bpd through December.
Initially introduced in 2023 to stabilize the oil market, the cuts reflect the group’s commitment to the Declaration of Cooperation, with plans to offset overproduction by September 2025. Iraq, along with Russia and Kazakhstan, reaffirmed adherence to the agreement and compensation schedules earlier this month.
Direct crude usage
Saudi Arabia’s direct crude oil burn dropped significantly in September, falling by 296,000 bpd compared to August to 518,000 bpd — a 36.4 percent decline and the lowest level in five months.
This decline is largely attributed to seasonal temperature changes, as the weather begins to cool from the peak summer heat, reducing the demand for air conditioning and, consequently, the need for crude oil in power generation.
Compared to September last year, the lower burn levels also reflect the Kingdom’s ongoing efforts to enhance energy efficiency and diversify its power sources.
By expanding its natural gas network and scaling up renewable energy projects, the Kingdom is reducing its reliance on crude oil for electricity generation, aligning with its Vision 2030 strategy for a sustainable and diversified energy mix.
More than 70 Saudi firms travel to Poland, Slovakia to boost trade ties
JEDDAH: Representatives from 72 Saudi firms are part of a group visiting Poland and Slovakia in a bid to increase trade with the European countries.
Delegates from Federation of Saudi Chambers are also part of the trip, which will see high-level economic meetings involving senior government officials and private sector representatives. Their objective is to explore investment opportunities and sign several agreements and commercial partnerships.
The delegation, led by Chairman of the Federation of Saudi Chambers Hassan bin Mujib Al-Huwaizi, includes over 72 business representatives from various economic sectors, along with governmental entities and authorities, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
In August, the Kingdom and Poland established a joint business council for the 2024-2028 term to boost trade and investment between the two countries. The move is part of the nation’s broader strategy to deepen economic ties with Europe, with a particular focus on Poland, one of the continent’s largest economies.
Poland has seen impressive growth in its agri-food sector, with exports reaching a record €47.9 billion ($51.1 billion) in 2023 — a €10 billion increase from the previous year.
In 2023, Saudi Arabia’s trade exchange with Poland reached SR33.7 billion. The Kingdom’s primary exports to Poland include mineral products and plastics, while Poland’s main exports to the Arab country consist of tobacco, machinery, and mechanical appliances.
The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Slovakia has also witnessed growth following the official opening of the Slovak Embassy in Riyadh in recent years. Additionally, bilateral trade has increased significantly, highlighting untapped investment opportunities.
The delegation will begin its visit to Poland by holding the Saudi-Polish Business Council meeting, a joint forum, and bilateral meetings between representatives.
In Slovakia, the delegation will host the Saudi-Slovak Business Forum, conduct meetings between companies from both sides and sign an agreement to establish a joint business council.
Through its recent series of international visits to ten countries, the federation is leading efforts to open new markets and opportunities for the Kingdom’s backers and to boost trade and investment exchanges with countries worldwide, in alignment with the aspirations of Saudi Vision 2030.
Blatco, Golden Star Rubber to build Middle East’s largest tire plant in Saudi Arabia
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s Black Arrow Tire Co., or Blatco, has partnered with Thailand’s Golden Star Rubber Co. to build the Middle East’s largest tire manufacturing facility in Yanbu, with a $470 million investment.
The plant will initially produce 4 million tires annually for passenger vehicles, with plans to expand production to 6 million tires per year, including truck and bus tires.
The Yanbu facility is set to boost Saudi Arabia’s industrial capabilities and will create more than 2,000 local jobs. The partnership will supply the facility with the natural rubber required for tire production in the Kingdom.
The Saudi tire market, which produced 22.6 million units in 2023, is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 1.26 percent, reaching 25.5 million units by 2032, according to market research firm IMARC Group.
Largely import-driven, the sector is dominated by Chinese tire brands due to their affordability and availability. However, flagship brands have gained traction in recent years, thanks to their higher quality and longer product lifecycles, the report added.
The ceremony to mark the deal, signed by Blatco Chairman Abdullah Al-Wahibi and Golden Star Rubber Chairman Amir Zafar, was also attended by Hassan Al-Huwaizi, president of the Federation of Saudi Chambers of Commerce, Al-Ekhbariya reported.
The agreement aligns with Vision 2030’s goals to localize industries, transfer knowledge, and support domestic content. The partnership is also supported by the Saudi-Thai Business Council, aimed at strengthening commercial and investment ties between Saudi Arabia and Thailand.
The plant will be situated in the Kingdom’s industrial city on the Red Sea, under the Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu. Blatco officials anticipate that 50 percent of production will be consumed locally, with the remainder to be exported to regional markets.
Earlier this year, Blatco signed a 20-year technology export agreement with South Korea’s Kumho Tire. As part of the deal, Kumho Tire agreed to supply Blatco with the technology to produce passenger car tires for the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia.
Founded in Riyadh in 2019, Blatco aims to become a key player in automotive manufacturing and distribution in the region. The company focuses on contributing to Saudi Arabia’s economy, creating jobs, and supporting technology transfer initiatives, according to its website.
In October 2023, the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund announced a separate $550 million tire factory in a joint venture with Italy’s Pirelli.
PIF holds a 75 percent stake in the venture, with Pirelli providing technology and commercial support. The facility, set to begin operations in 2026, will produce tires for passenger vehicles under the Pirelli brand and a new local brand for domestic and regional markets.
Pakistan PM calls for tax compliance by all sectors amid tough IMF conditions
- IMF’s unplanned visit last week was reportedly prompted by revenue collection shortfall of $685 million during Q1 of current fiscal
- Agreement for a $7 billion loan program approved in September came with tough measures such as raising taxes, privatization
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday called for all sectors to fulfill their tax obligations, days after the IMF concluded an unscheduled visit to Pakistan for discussions on economic policy and reform efforts.
The IMF’s visit last week was widely reported to have been prompted by, among other factors, a shortfall of nearly Rs190 billion ($685 million) in revenue collection during the first quarter of the current fiscal year. The period also saw an external financing gap of $2.5 billion, while Pakistan failed in its bid to sell its national airline, a major setback on the path to privatizing loss-making state-owned enterprises, required by the IMF.
The government wants to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13 percent over the next three years. The ratio stood at 9 percent during 2023-24, according to the Federal Board of Revenue, the country’s main tax collection body.
“Economic development is only possible when everyone fulfills their share of responsibility,” Sharif was quoted as saying in a statement released by his office after he chaired a meeting of his cabinet to review economic policies. “All sectors must pay taxes to contribute to national progress.”
Pakistan’s economy has faced significant challenges in recent years, including high inflation and fiscal deficits. In May last year, the CPI inflation rate hit a record high of 38 percent but has seen a downward trajectory in recent months, moving to 7.2 percent year-on-year in October.
Pakistan has struggled for decades with boom-and-bust economic cycles, prompting 23 IMF bailouts since 1958.
After wrapping up the visit last week, the IMF had said it was encouraged by Islamabad’s reaffirmed commitment to the economic reforms under the Extended Fund Facility its board had approved in September to reduce vulnerabilities.
The external financing gap and failure to sell PIA has prompted fears that Pakistan might need to impose new taxes to bridge the shortfall. But Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has repeatedly said the shortfall will be met only with enforcement to get people to pay their taxes, implying there would not be any new revenue measures.
Dubai’s annual inflation rate slows to hit lowest level in 14 months
RIYADH: Dubai’s annual inflation rate slowed again in October, reaching its lowest level in 14 months, official figures showed.
According to data released by the Dubai Statistics Center, the emirate’s inflation rate reached 2.4 percent in October, driven by a deeper deflation in transport prices, which fell by 10.6 percent compared to an 8 percent decline in September.
Dubai’s inflation rate has been relatively low compared to other major cities in the region, reflecting the government’s proactive measures to manage price stability and sustain economic growth.
Amid global inflationary pressures, the emirate’s economy has remained resilient, benefiting from diversified sectors such as tourism, real estate, and trade.
In light of global and domestic factors, the UAE Central Bank projects inflation in the country as a whole for 2024 at 2.3 percent, compared to 1.6 percent in 2023, due to a moderate increase in commodity prices, wages, and rents.
The data further indicated a deflation in the tobacco price category to 3.63 percent, similar to that recorded in September.
The figures also showed slower deflation in the information and communication category, which saw an annual fall of 1.92 percent, compared to a decline of 2.05 percent in September.
Recreation, sport, and culture prices witnessed a year-on-year drop of 1.74 percent in October, a smaller decrease than the 2.66 percent seen in the previous month.
The data also revealed that the housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels sector witnessed a price increase, with a 7.16 percent surge, compared to 7.02 percent in September.
The insurance and financial services sector also witnessed a rise in prices, with a 5.83 percent rise in October, compared to 5.20 percent in the previous month.
Prices in education, health, and food and beverages also advanced in October. Education rose by 2.94 percent, health by 1.87 percent, and food and beverages by 1.85 percent.
In comparison, September’s increases were 2.94 percent for education, 1.88 percent for health, and 1.81 percent for food and beverages.
The personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods and services sector recorded a 1.67 percent jump in prices, while clothing and footwear was up 1.15 percent. Both of these were lower rises than in September.
In 2023, Dubai announced a plan aiming to boost foreign trade and investment in the UAE’s financial hub and “double the size” of its economy by 2033.
