PARIS: Saudi Arabia demonstrated its resolve to lift oil prices by slashing output ahead of the entry into force of new pact limiting production while Russia boosted output to a record level, the International Energy Agency said Friday.
World oil markets have been on a rollercoaster ride in recent months, with OPEC and its partners including Russia, often called OPEC+, agreeing to cut back production again from January in order to reverse a slump in oil prices on abundant production and worries about slower global growth.
In its latest monthly report, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said the Saudis took the lead by cutting output in December as prices tumbled by more than a third in just two months.
“Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions,” said the IEA.
“While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner,” it added.
But the cut was mostly due to the Saudis, with data indicating several OPEC members increased production last month.
The IEA said data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December “to a new record near 11.5 mbd (million barrels per day) and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much.”
OPEC members along with allies including Russia agreed in early December to trim production by 1.2 mbd from Jan. 1, in a bid to eliminate a production glut and shore up prices.
Just months earlier, they had relaxed production caps as prices shot higher on market worries about the impact of US sanctions on Iran, but Washington eventually granted waivers allowing several countries to continue to import Iranian oil.
Meanwhile, US production rose considerably more than expected last year, adding further to supplies, while concerns about demand emerged as the US-China trade spat deepened in the second half of last year.
The IEA said the US increased output by 2.1 mbd last year, the “highest ever” annual growth ever recorded.
The boom of shale oil production in the US this decade has redrawn the map of global energy politics as the nation no longer depends as heavily on imports and has even resumed exports.
The IEA said “the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer” in 2019.
“By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.”
The IEA left its estimate for global oil growth in 2019 unchanged at an increase of 1.4 mbd, saying “the impact of higher oil prices in 2018 is fading, which will help offset lower economic growth.”
It said there were signs that the rebalancing of the oil market will be gradual.
Saudis cut, Russians hiked output ahead of pact: IEA
Saudis cut, Russians hiked output ahead of pact: IEA
- OPEC members along with allies including Russia agreed in early December to trim production by 1.2 mbd from Jan. 1
Oil Updates — crude set for 3rd straight weekly gain on winter fuel demand
LONDON: Oil prices rose in early Asian trade and were on track for a third straight week of gains with icy conditions in parts of the US and Europe driving up fuel demand for heating.
Brent crude futures climbed 69 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $77.61 a barrel at 10:52 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 66 cents, also up 0.9 percent, to $74.58.
Over the three weeks ending Jan. 10, Brent has advanced 6 percent while WTI has jumped 7 percent.
Analysts at JPMorgan attributed the gains to growing concern over supply disruptions due to tightening sanctions, amid low oil stockpiles, freezing temperatures in many parts of the US and Europe and improving sentiment regarding China’s stimulus measures.
The US weather bureau expects central and eastern parts of the country to experience below-average temperatures. Many regions in Europe have also been hit by extreme cold and will likely continue to experience a colder-than-usual start to the year, which JPMorgan analysts expect to boost demand.
“We anticipate a significant year-over-year increase in global oil demand of 1.6 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2025, primarily boosted by ... demand for heating oil, kerosene, and LPG,” JPMorgan said in a note on Friday.
Meanwhile, the premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August this week, potentially indicating supply tightness at a time of rising demand.
Oil prices have rallied despite the US dollar strengthening for six straight weeks. A stronger dollar typically weighs on prices, as it makes purchases of crude expensive outside the US.
Supplies could be further hit as US President Joe Biden is expected to announce new sanctions targeting Russia’s economy this week in a bid to bolster Ukraine’s war effort against Moscow before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. A key target of sanctions so far has been Russia’s oil industry.
“Uncertainty over how hawkish Trump will be with Iran will be providing some support. Asian buyers have already been looking for alternative grades from the Middle East, with broader sanctions against Russia and Iran making this oil flow more difficult,” ING analysts said in a note on Friday.
SABIC, Almarai, SEC able to absorb fuel price hike: S&P Global
RIYADH: Major Saudi companies, including chemical company SABIC, dairy firm Almarai, and Saudi Electric Co., are well-positioned to handle the impact of higher fuel and feedstock prices introduced on Jan. 1, according to a new report.
Released by capital market economy firm S&P Global, the analysis reveals that those corporates will be able to absorb the marginal increase in production costs by further improving operational efficiencies as well as potentially via pass-through mechanisms.
This came after Saudi Aramco increased diesel prices in the Kingdom to SR1.66 ($0.44) per liter, effective Jan. 1, marking a 44.3 percent rise compared to the start of 2024. The company has kept gasoline prices unchanged, with Gasoline 91 priced at SR2.18 per liter and Gasoline 93 at SR2.33 per liter.
Despite the hike, diesel prices in Saudi Arabia remain lower than those in many neighboring Arab countries. In the UAE and Qatar, a liter of diesel is priced at $0.73 and $0.56, respectively, while in Bahrain and Kuwait, it costs $0.42 and $0.39 per liter.
“For SABIC and Almarai, the increase in feedstock prices will not affect profitability significantly. In the case of utility company, SEC, additional support will likely come from the government if needed,” the report said.
The capital market economy firm projects that SABIC will continue to outperform global peers on profitability.
“We don’t expect the rise in feedstock and fuel prices to materially affect profitability, since the company estimates it will increase its cost of sales by only 0.2 percent,” the report said.
It further highlighted that SABIC is considered a government-related entity with a high possibility of receiving support when needed.
The report also underlines that Almarai anticipates an additional SR200 million in costs for 2025, driven by higher fuel prices and the indirect effects of increased expenses across other areas of its supply chain.
“We believe Almarai will continue focusing on business efficiency, cost optimization, and other initiatives to mitigate these impacts,” the release stressed.
With regards to SEC, S&P said that an unrestricted and uncapped balancing account provides a mechanism for government support, including related to the higher fuel costs.
“We believe any increased fuel cost will be covered by this balancing account,” the report said.
The study further highlights that the marginal increase “could significantly affect wider Saudi corporations’ profit margins and competitiveness.”
The S&P data also suggests that additional costs will be reflected in companies’ financials from the first quarter of 2025.
“Saudi Arabia is continuing its significant and rapid transformation under the country’s Vision 2030 program. We expect an acceleration of investments to diversify the Saudi economy away from its reliance on the upstream hydrocarbon sector,” the report said.
“The sheer scale of projects — estimated at more than $1 trillion in total — suggests large funding requirements. Higher feedstock and fuel prices would help reduce subsidy costs for the government, with those savings potentially redeployed to Vision 2030 projects,” it added.
Lenovo to produce ‘Saudi Made’ PCs by 2026 following $2bn Alat deal closure
RIYADH: Chinese tech giant Lenovo is set to manufacture millions of computer devices in Saudi Arabia by 2026, following the completion of a $2 billion investment deal with Alat, a subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund.
First announced in May, the partnership has now received shareholder and regulatory approvals, paving the way for Lenovo to establish a regional headquarters and a manufacturing facility in the Kingdom.
The deal marks a significant step in aligning Lenovo’s growth ambitions with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goals of economic diversification, innovation, and job creation, the company said in a press release.
The factory will manufacture millions of PCs and servers every year using local research and development teams for fully end-to-end “Saudi Made” products and is expected to begin production by 2026, it added.
“Through this powerful strategic collaboration and investment, Lenovo will have significant resources and financial flexibility to further accelerate our transformation and grow our business by capitalizing on the incredible growth momentum in KSA and the wider MEA region,” Yang said.
He added: “We are excited to have Alat as our long-term strategic partner and are confident that our world-class supply chain, technology, and manufacturing capabilities will benefit KSA as it drives its Vision 2030 goals of economic diversification, industrial development, innovation, and job creation.”
Amit Midha, CEO of Alat, underscored the significance of the partnership for both Lenovo and the Kingdom.
“We are incredibly proud to become a strategic investor in Lenovo and partner with them on their continued journey as a leading global technology company,” said Midha.
“With the establishment of a regional headquarters in Riyadh and a world-class manufacturing hub, powered by clean energy, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we expect the Lenovo team to further their potential across the MEA region,” he added.
The partnership is expected to generate thousands of jobs, strengthen the region’s technological infrastructure, and attract further investment into the Middle East and Africa, according to the press release.
In May, Lenovo raised $1.15 billion through the issuance of warrants to support its future growth plans. The initiative, which was fully subscribed by investors, signals confidence in Lenovo’s strategic approach and its plans for global expansion.
The investment deal was advised by Citi and Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton for Lenovo, while Morgan Stanley and Latham & Watkins represented Alat.
Lebanon’s bonds climb as parliament elects first president since 2022
LONDON: Lebanon’s government bonds extended a three-month long rally on Thursday as its parliament voted in a new head of state for the crisis-ravaged country for the first time since 2022.
Lebanese lawmakers elected army chief Joseph Aoun as president. It came after the failure of 12 previous attempts to pick a president and the move boosts hopes that Lebanon might finally be able to start addressing its dire economic woes.
Lebanon’s battered bonds have almost trebled in value since September when the regional conflict with Israel weakened Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, long viewed as an obstacle to overcoming the country’s political paralysis.
Most of Lebanon’s international bonds, which have been in default since 2020, rallied after Aoun’s victory was announced to stand between 0.8 and 0.9 cents higher on the day and at nearly 16 cents on the dollar.
They have also risen almost every day since late December, although they remain some of the lowest priced government bonds in the world, reflecting the scale of Lebanon’s difficulties.
With its economy still reeling from a devastating financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon is in dire need of international support to rebuild from the war, which the World Bank estimates to have cost the country $8.5 billion.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 12,097
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Thursday, gaining 9.01 points, or 0.07 percent, to close at 12,097.75.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR7.48 billion ($1.99 billion), as 96 stocks advanced, while 133 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index decreased by 3.28 points, or 0.22 percent, to close at 1,510.14.
The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, surged, gaining 251.24 points, or 0.82 percent, to close at 31,027.39. This comes as 56 of the listed stocks advanced, while 32 declined.
The best-performing stock was Nice One Beauty Digital Marketing Co. for the second day in a row, with its share price increasing by 7.69 percent to SR49.
Other top performers included Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair Co., which saw its share price rise by 6.5 percent to SR14.74, and Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores Co., which saw a 4.42 percent increase to SR35.45.
Arabian Pipes Co. and Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group also saw positive change with their share prices moving up by 4.10 percent and 3.89 percent to SR12.70 and SR298.80, respectively.
The worst performer of the day was Salama Cooperative Insurance Co., whose share price fell by 5.88 percent to SR19.52.
Almoosa Health Co. and Al Hassan Ghazi Ibrahim Shaker Co. also saw declines, with their shares dropping by 5.13 percent and 3.91 percent to SR133.20 and SR28.25, respectively.
On the announcements front, Riyad Bank declared its intention to fully redeem its $1.5 billion fixed-rate reset tier 2 sukuk, issued in February 2020, on Feb. 25, 2025.
According to a Tadawul statement, the sukuk originally maturing in 2030, will be redeemed at face value in accordance with the terms and conditions. The redemption, approved by the regulators, will include any accrued but unpaid periodic distributions.
On the redemption date, Riyad Sukuk Limited will deposit the full amount into the accounts of sukuk holders, marking the completion of the issuance. This redemption will conclude the sukuk’s life, with no remaining value post-redemption.
Riyad Bank ended today’s trading session edging up by 0.91 percent to SR27.85.
