WASHINGTON: The Trump administration is poised to announce Friday that it is withdrawing from a treaty that has been a centerpiece of superpower arms control since the Cold War and whose demise some analysts worry could fuel a new arms race.
An American withdrawal, which has been expected for months, would follow years of unresolved dispute over Russian compliance with the pact, known as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, or INF, treaty. It was the first arms control measure to ban an entire class of weapons: ground-launched cruise missiles with a range between 500 kilometers (310 miles) and 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles). Russia denies that it has been in violation.
US officials also have expressed worry that China, which is not party to the 1987 treaty, is gaining a significant military advantage in Asia by deploying large numbers of missiles with ranges beyond the treaty’s limit. Leaving the INF treaty would allow the Trump administration to counter the Chinese, but it’s unclear how it would do that.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in early December that Washington would give Moscow 60 days to return to compliance before it gave formal notice of withdrawal, with actual withdrawal taking place six months later. The 60-day deadline expires on Saturday, and the administration is expected to say as early as Friday that efforts to work out a compliance deal have failed and that it would suspend its compliance with the treaty’s terms.
The State Department said Pompeo would make a public statement on Friday morning, but it did not mention the topic.
During remarks made at a news conference in Bucharest, Secretary General Stoltenberg, said there are no signs of getting a compliance deal with Russia.
“So we must prepare for a world without the INF Treaty,” he said.
Technically, a US withdrawal would take effect six months after this week’s notification, leaving a small window for saving the treaty. However, in talks this week in Beijing, the US and Russia reported no breakthrough in their dispute, leaving little reason to think either side would change its stance on whether a Russian cruise missile violates the pact.
A Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, was quoted by the Russian state news agency Tass as saying after the Beijing talks Thursday, “Unfortunately, there is no progress. The position of the American side is very tough and like an ultimatum.” He said he expects Washington now to suspend its obligations under the treaty, although he added that Moscow remains ready to “search for solutions” that could keep the treaty in force.
US withdrawal raises the prospect of further deterioration in US-Russian relations, which already are arguably at the lowest point in decades, and debate among US allies in Europe over whether Russia’s alleged violations warrant a countermeasure such as deployment of an equivalent American missile in Europe. The US has no nuclear-capable missiles based in Europe; the last of that type and range were withdrawn in line with the INF treaty.
The prospect of US withdrawal from the INF pact has stirred concern globally. The mayor of Des Moines, Iowa, Frank Cownie, is among dozens of local officials and lawmakers in the US, Canada, Europe and elsewhere who signed a letter this week to President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin expressing worry at the “unraveling” of the INF treaty and other arms constraints.
“Withdrawing from treaties takes a step in the wrong direction,” Cownie said in a telephone interview. “It’s wasn’t just Des Moines, Iowa. It’s people from all around this country that are concerned about the future of our cities, of our country, of this planet.”
The American ambassador to NATO, Kay Bailey Hutchison, set the rhetorical stage for Washington’s withdrawal announcement by asserting Thursday that Russia has been in violation for years, including in Ukraine. She said in a tweet and a video message about the INF treaty that Russia is to blame for its demise.
“Russia consistently refuses to acknowledge its violation and continues to push disinformation and false narratives regarding its illegal missile,” she said. “When only one party respects an arms control treaty while the other side flaunts it, it leaves one side vulnerable, no one is safer, and (it) discredits the very idea of arms control.”
Nuclear weapons experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said in a statement this week that while Russia’s violation of the INF treaty is a serious problem, US withdrawal under current circumstances would be counterproductive.
“Leaving the INF treaty will unleash a new missile competition between the United States and Russia,” they said.
Kingston Reif, director for disarmament at the Arms Control Association, said Thursday the Trump administration has failed to exhaust diplomatic options to save the treaty. What’s more, “it has no strategy to prevent Russia from building and fielding even more intermediate-range missiles in the absence of the agreement.”
Reif said the period between now and August, when the US withdrawal would take effect, offers a last chance to save the treaty, but he sees little prospect of that happening. He argues that Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, is “unlikely to miss the opportunity to kill an agreement he has long despised.”
US poised to announce withdrawal from nuclear arms treaty
US poised to announce withdrawal from nuclear arms treaty
- An American withdrawal would follow years of unresolved dispute over Russian compliance with the pact
- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in early December that Washington would give Moscow 60 days to return to compliance before it gave formal notice of withdrawal
What to know about sudden rebel gains in Syria’s 13-year war and why it matters
- It was the first opposition attack on Aleppo since 2016, when an air campaign by Russian warplanes helped Syrian President Bashar Assad retake the northwestern city
- The roughly 30 percent of the country not under Assad is controlled by a range of opposition forces and foreign troops, including Turkish and US forces and their allies
WASHINGTON: The 13-year civil war in Syria has roared back into prominence with a surprise rebel offensive on Aleppo, one of Syria’s largest cities and an ancient business hub. The push is among the rebels’ strongest in years in a war whose destabilizing effects have rippled far beyond the country’s borders.
It was the first opposition attack on Aleppo since 2016, when a brutal air campaign by Russian warplanes helped Syrian President Bashar Assad retake the northwestern city. Intervention by Russia, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah militia and other groups has allowed Assad to remain in power, within the 70 percent of Syria under his control.
The surge in fighting has raised the prospect of another violent front reopening in the Middle East, at a time when US-backed Israel is fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Robert Ford, the last-serving US ambassador to Syria, pointed to months of Israeli strikes on Syrian and Hezbollah targets in the area, and to Israel’s ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon this week, as factors providing Syria’s rebels with the opportunity to advance.
Here’s a look at some of the key aspects of the new fighting:
Why does the fighting at Aleppo matter?
Assad has been at war with opposition forces seeking his overthrow for 13 years, a conflict that’s killed an estimated half-million people. Some 6.8 million Syrians have fled the country, a refugee flow that helped change the political map in Europe by fueling anti-immigrant far-right movements.
The roughly 30 percent of the country not under Assad is controlled by a range of opposition forces and foreign troops. The US has about 900 troops in northeast Syria, far from Aleppo, to guard against a resurgence by the Daesh group. Both the US and Israel conduct occasional strikes in
Syria against government forces and Iran-allied militias. Turkiye has forces in Syria as well, and has influence with the broad alliance of opposition forces storming Aleppo.
Coming after years with few sizeable changes in territory between Syria’s warring parties, the fighting “has the potential to be really quite, quite consequential and potentially game-changing,” if Syrian government forces prove unable to hold their ground, said Charles Lister, a longtime Syria analyst with the US-based Middle East Institute. Risks include if Daesh fighters see it as an opening, Lister said.
Ford said the fighting in Aleppo would become more broadly destabilizing if it drew Russia and Turkiye — each with its own interests to protect in Syria — into direct heavy fighting against each other.
The US and UN have long designated the opposition force leading the attack at Aleppo — Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, known by its initials HTS — as a terrorist organization.
Its leader, Abu Mohammed Al-Golani, emerged as the leader of Al-Qaeda’s Syria branch in 2011, in the first months of Syria’s war. His fight was an unwelcome intervention to many in Syria’s opposition, who hoped to keep the fight against Assad’s brutal rule untainted by violent extremism.
Golani early on claimed responsibility for deadly bombings, pledged to attack Western forces and sent religious police to enforce modest dress by women.
Golani has sought to remake himself in recent years. He renounced his Al-Qaeda ties in 2016. He’s disbanded his religious police force, cracked down on extremist groups in his territory, and portrayed himself as a protector of other religions. That includes last year allowing the first Christian Mass in the city of Idlib in years.
What’s the history of Aleppo in the war?
At the crossroads of trade routes and empires for thousands of years, Aleppo is one of the centers of commerce and culture in the Middle East.
Aleppo was home to 2.3 million people before the war. Rebels seized the east side of the city in 2012, and it became the proudest symbol of the advance of armed opposition factions.
In 2016, government forces backed by Russian airstrikes laid siege to the city. Russian shells, missiles and crude barrel bombs — fuel canisters or other containers loaded with explosives and metal — methodically leveled neighborhoods. Starving and under siege, rebels surrendered Aleppo that year.
The Russian military’s entry was the turning point in the war, allowing Assad to stay on in the territory he held.
This year, Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo have hit Hezbollah weapons depots and Syrian forces, among other targets, according to an independent monitoring group. Israel rarely acknowledges strikes at Aleppo and other government-held areas of Syria.
Syrian authorities closed Aleppo airport and canceled all flights, military source says
AMMAN: Syrian authorities closed Aleppo airport and canceled all flights, a military source told Reuters early on Saturday as Syrian rebels opposed to President Bashar Assad said on Friday they had reached the heart of the northern city of Aleppo.
Syria was promised extra Russian military aid to help the army thwart a takeover by the rebels opposed to President Bashar al-Assad, of the northwestern Aleppo province, two Syrian military sources told Reuters on Saturday.
Damascus expects new Russian military hardware to start arriving at Russia's Hmeimim airbase near Syria's coastal city of Latakia in the next 72 hours, the sources added.
How researchers in Saudi Arabia are turning desalination waste into valuable resources
- Industry experts are working on technology to recover minerals from the highly saline waste liquid produced from desalination.
- Brine, a byproduct from turning sea water into fresh water, can also be repurposed for energy production, KAUST professor says
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has established itself as a global leader in the rapidly advancing water desalination market, doubling its production capacity, while developing new technology to repurpose the harmful byproduct of the process — brine.
While desalination is effective for achieving water sustainability, producing drinking water from sea water in arid regions, it leaves behind a highly concentrated saline fluid. If this brine is disposed of back into the sea without treatment, it poses a potential danger to marine ecosystems.
Simply put, brine is highly concentrated seawater that contains contaminants, including chemicals used during the desalination process.
“The chemicals should be all neutralized,” said Noreddine Ghaffour, a research professor at the Water Desalination and Reuse Center at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST).
He told Arab News that “there is no reason to dump chemicals into the sea, because they are all negatively affecting marine life, including chlorine and antiscalants.”
Water desalination scientists in Saudi Arabia have developed technologies to neutralize chemicals in brine before discharge and to disperse salt over a radius of up to 2 km when reintroduced into the sea.
Ghaffour, who was granted Saudi citizenship for his work and expertise on desalination, said that researchers and industry experts believe the future of the process is in recovering minerals, while treating the brine and achieving zero liquid discharge.
While around 70 percent of Earth is covered in water, only 2.5 percent of it is fresh, of which 1 percent is easily accessible, according to the National Geographic website.
Water desalination separates salt ions from sea water to make it safe for consumption. Salinity levels vary by body of water; for example, the Red Sea has 40 grams of salt per liter, while the Arabian Gulf’s salinity is 45 grams per liter.
The three main water desalination technologies employed in Saudi Arabia are: multi-stage flash distillation, a thermal process using evaporation and condensation; multiple-effect distillation, which uses electrical energy to break down water ions; and reverse osmosis, which separates water molecules through a semipermeable membrane.
All three technologies produce brine, but reverse osmosis plants generate lower quantities compared with the other two methods.
DID YOUKNOW?
• Some elements, like lithium, are 5,000 times more abundant in the ocean than on land. Lithium is crucial for Li-ion batteries. (Source: KAUST)
• In 2021, Saudi Arabia set a world record for the lowest energy consumption in mobile desalination, reducing it to 2.27 kWh/m³. (Source: Desalination Lab)
• By 2040, 33 countries, including 14 in the Middle East, are projected to face extreme water stress. (Source: Desalination Lab)
Reverse osmosis, according to Ghaffour, uses a method called membrane separation, where osmotic pressure is overcome by a semipermeable membrane that filters out salt ions, allowing only water molecules to pass through.
Ghaffour explained that although the semipermeable membrane effectively filters out about 99 percent of salts, some still manage to pass through, producing brine.
Moreover, osmotic pressure — the force applied to a solution to prevent a solvent from passing through a semipermeable membrane — requires a lot of electrical energy.
“Electricity is one of the most expensive energy forms… the main problem with (reverse osmosis) is that we do this under pressure,” the KAUST professor said.
He added: “The more salt, the higher the osmotic pressure. In order to pass only water molecules through the membrane, we need to apply a pressure which is higher than the osmotic pressure.
“And the osmotic pressure in Red Sea water, for instance, is 30 bar… so we need a pressure higher than 30 bar, which is a very high pressure.”
He also explained that “recovery” refers to “how much water we recover from the sea,” adding that “if the recovery is 50 percent, this means that salt contents are doubled.”
Ghaffour said selecting the correct location for a desalination plant is highly important. Authorities must choose sites with a reliable water intake that will not disrupt marine ecosystems or impact densely populated areas.
According to the UN Environment Programme, unless waste water is properly treated and dispersed, it may form a dense plume of toxic brine, which can degrade coastal and marine ecosystems.
Increased salinity and temperature can reduce dissolved oxygen levels and contribute to the formation of “dead zones” — areas where few marine species can survive.
Ghaffour said that while brine is bad for the environment, it has not caused significant global environmental harm. Over the past 30 to 40 years, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf region have experienced few negative side-effects from the desalination process, he said.
Concern over waste water from desalination returning to the sea at a higher temperature is less of an issue with the reverse osmosis method, Ghaffour said. “We have the same temperature as sea water, maybe one degree more, which is affordable.”
Researchers are determined to achieve zero liquid discharge, which involves treating brine until only solids remain. However, this process also concentrates all the salts in the same place.
To remove salt ions from brine, a complex and costly process called mineral recovery is used.
The challenge in mineral recovery lies in the fact that high-value minerals, such as lithium, rubidium, and uranium, are present in brine at very low concentrations.
To make the process efficient and economically viable, further technological advancements are needed.
Currently, “there are no technologies to handle this huge volume,” Ghaffour said. “We are talking about huge volumes of water, like 1 million tons of water (recovered) every day, it’s higher than a river.”
Several technologies have been developed for mineral recovery on a smaller scale. One method involves chemical treatments that precipitate different salts in stages, starting with calcium carbonate and ending with lithium.
Another mineral recovery method involves the use of ion exchange membranes or absorbents designed to capture specific minerals, such as lithium.
One of the largest areas of current research is the magnesium hydroxide family, particularly for its applications in the cement and concrete industry.
Saudi Arabia is already using nanofiltration technology to produce magnesium from magnesium-rich waters, with the next step being the extraction of magnesium hydroxide for cement production.
Expensive and critical minerals like rubidium — which costs around $3,000 per kilo — as well as uranium and lithium, are of great interest, but are costly to extract due to their low concentrations, requiring significantly more energy in the process.
From a commercial perspective, businesses prefer to purchase lithium from produced water — a byproduct of oil and gas production — rather than from brine.
Brine can also be repurposed to enhance the efficiency of the desalination process. Due to its high osmotic potential, brine can be used for energy production.
Ghaffour said that several companies are utilizing reverse electrodialysis to generate energy, which is then used to power the reverse osmosis process.
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In addition, to achieve a circular carbon economy, reverse electrodialysis can be combined with brine dilution for mineral recovery, allowing part of the brine to be reused in an efficient closed-loop system.
“This is what I call a seawater factory,” Ghaffour said. “We take seawater and we produce everything from seawater without polluting back.
“Many experts are saying that in the future, desalinated water, which is what we need most, will itself be a byproduct, because we will have so many more valuable products from the sea. Then this desalinated water will be just one of the byproducts.”
However, he believes that turning this vision into reality will take time.
“We have to distinguish between two things. One is science and the second one is technology scale-up.”
In September 2024, Lihytech, a KAUST startup, announced a partnership with Aramco to strategically collaborate on recovering lithium from oilfield brines using direct lithium extraction technology and a membrane developed at KAUST.
Ghaffour is also collaborating with a Singaporean company, MediSun Energy, to integrate desalination with energy and mineral production, aiming to optimize these processes as a whole. A pilot facility has already been installed in China, with plans for another installation in Saudi Arabia.
“The whole world is working on this (mineral recovery and optimizing desalination). We will see a lot of developments in this, in my opinion,” he said.
Saudi fighters shine as PFL MENA Championship delivers spectacular action in Riyadh
- Hattan Alsaif, Abdullah Al-Qahtani wow the crowd on electrifying night
RIYADH: The Saudi duo of MMA fighters, Hattan Alsaif and Abdullah Al-Qahtani, shone at the PFL MENA Championship on an electrifying night in Riyadh.
The PFL (Professional Fighters League) delivered an evening of spectacular MMA action which showcased local and international talent while solidifying Saudi Arabia’s place on the global MMA stage.
The event featured a mix of thrilling showcase bouts and championship matches, leaving fans captivated by the high-level competition.
Costello van Steenis began the night with an impressive first-round knockout victory over Joao Dantas, landing a head kick at just 48 seconds. The win improved his career record to 16-3 and marked his fourth career knockout, maintaining his strong form of four victories in his last five fights.
Asael Adjoudj impressed in the featherweight division, securing a third-round guillotine choke submission against Jose Perez. The victory extended his remarkable winning streak to nine, bringing his career record to 9-1. Adjoudj remains undefeated since his professional debut loss, highlighting his rapid rise in the division.
Gabriel Braga bounced back from his PFL playoff semifinal loss with a unanimous decision win over Jeremy Kennedy. With his career record now at 15-2, Braga demonstrated resilience and technical skill, reaffirming his status as a top featherweight contender.
Slim Trabelsi continued his undefeated run with a hard-fought split-decision victory in a clash of unbeaten heavyweights against Englishman Abraham Bably. Utilizing his powerful striking and determination, Trabelsi improved his record to 8-0, showcasing his potential to rise further in the division.
On the Saudi front, Hattan Alsaif delivered a highlight-reel moment with a stunning knockout win over Lilia Osmani, further establishing herself as a fighter to watch.
The night’s crowning achievements came with two championship bouts. Abdullah Al-Qahtani secured the PFL MENA Featherweight Championship in front of his hometown crowd with a dominant first-round TKO against Marouane Bellagouit. The 26-year-old Riyadh native improved his record to 10-2, adding his fourth career knockout and earning his place as a hometown hero.
Egypt’s Omar El Dafrawy claimed the PFL MENA Welterweight Championship with a second-round TKO over Mohammad Alaqraa. The victory not only extended El Dafrawy’s winning streak to seven but also avenged a previous loss to Alaqraa. Now boasting a 13-6 record with eight knockouts, El Dafrawy demonstrated his growth and determination, cementing his status as a dominant force in the division.
The PFL MENA Championship in Riyadh was a landmark event for MMA in Saudi Arabia, showcasing the region’s growing talent and passion for the sport. With electrifying performances and enthusiastic support from local fans, the event marked another milestone in Saudi Arabia’s journey as a key player in the global MMA landscape.
France on the back foot in Africa after Chadian snub
- Chad abruptly ended its defense cooperation pact with France
- Experts say that without Chad, French army will struggle to run other Africa operations
NAIROBI/GENEVA: A French plan to significantly reduce its military presence in West and central Africa risks backfiring and further diminishing the former colonial power’s influence in the region at a time when Russia is gaining ground.
A French envoy to President Emmanuel Macron this week handed in a report with proposals on how France could reduce its military presence in Chad, Gabon and Ivory Coast, where it has deployed troops for decades.
Details of the report have not been made public but two sources said the plan is to cut the number of troops to 600 from around 2,200 now. The sources said Chad would keep the largest contingent with 300 French troops, down from 1,000. However, in a surprise move that caught French officials on the hop, the government of Chad — a key Western ally in the fight against Islamist militants in the region — on Thursday abruptly ended its defense cooperation pact with France. That could lead to French troops leaving the central African country altogether.
“For France it is the start of the end of their security engagement in central and Western Africa,” said Ulf Laessing, director of the Sahel Programme at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali.
“Chad was the aircraft carrier of the French army, its logistical headquarters. If Chad doesn’t exist, the French army will have a huge problem to keep running its other operations.”
In a further blow to France, Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye told French state TV on Thursday it was inappropriate for French troops to maintain a presence in his country, where 350 French soldiers are currently based. France has already pulled its soldiers out from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, following military coups in those West African countries and spreading anti-French sentiment. Paris is also shifting more attention to Europe with the war in Ukraine and increasing budgetary constraints, diplomats said.
The review envisions the remaining French soldiers in the region focusing on training, intelligence exchange and responding to requests from countries for help, depending on their needs, the sources said. Chad’s move to end the cooperation deal had not been discussed with Paris and shocked the French, according to the two sources and other officials. France, which wants to keep a presence in Chad in part because of its work to help ease one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises unfolding now in neighboring Sudan, responded only 24 hours after Chad made its announcement.
“France takes note and intends to continue the dialogue to implement these orientations,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.
One of the two sources, a French official with knowledge of Chadian affairs, said Chad’s government appeared to have seen the French decision to more than halve its military presence there as a snub. Chad also felt the French would no longer be in a position to guarantee the security of the military regime led by President Mahamat Idriss Deby, this source said.
Macron had backed Deby despite criticism since Deby seized power following the death of his father, who ruled Chad for 30 years until he was killed in 2021 during an incursion by rebels. Deby won an election held this year.
In its statement on Thursday evening, released hours after the French foreign minister had visited the Sudanese border in eastern Chad with his counterpart, Chad’s foreign ministry said N’djamena wanted to fully assert its sovereignty after more than six decades of independence from France. It said the decision should in no way undermine the friendly relations between the two countries. Earlier this year, a small contingent of US special forces left Chad amid a review of US cooperation with the country.
The French drawdown, coupled with a US pullback from Africa, contrasts with the increasing influence of Russia and other countries, including Turkiye and the United Arab Emirates, on the continent. Russian mercenaries are helping prop up the military governments of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, and are also fighting alongside them against Islamist militants. However, French officials and other sources played down Russia’s ability to take advantage of the French setback in Chad, at least in the short term. The French source familiar with Chadian affairs noted that Russia and Chad back rival factions in Sudan’s war. Russia also has major military commitments in Syria and the war in Ukraine.
