TEHRAN, Iran: Stay-at-home mom Maryam Alidadi used to lead a comfortable middle-class life. The 35-year-old and her husband, a mechanic, could afford a spacious rental apartment in a central neighborhood of Tehran, along with a car, occasional restaurant meals and holidays abroad.
Now they are barely hanging on, even after drastically cutting spending.
Like most Iranians, the family was hit hard by the collapse of the national currency, accelerating inflation and eroding wages — fallout from unprecedented US sanctions.
Perhaps most devastating for Iran’s large middle class has been the sharp spike in housing prices, more than double in a year. That has uprooted tenants and made home ownership unattainable for most.
The Alidadis sold their car and borrowed from friends and family to buy a smaller apartment in a less desirable area on the outskirts of Tehran — in hindsight a smart move, since they’ve been priced out of their old neighborhood by now.
“Right now, this is the most difficult period ever,” said Alidadi’s 58-year-old mother, Shahla Allahverdi, reflecting on the Islamic Republic’s 40-year history as she shared a park bench with her daughter.
Iranians worry about the future as tensions between Iran and the West continue to rise.
The escalation — triggered by the Trump administration’s withdrawal last year from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers — seems unstoppable, and European mediators trying to defuse the situation keep coming up short.
The showdown between Washington and Tehran has upended the lives of Iranians as they try to survive on less. A bride borrowed a wedding dress because she couldn’t afford to buy or even rent one. More newlyweds move in with their families to save money. Visa requests are up at foreign embassies, with young Iranians eager to leave.
Some wonder how far Washington is willing to push its “maximum pressure” campaign.
The Trump administration says the sanctions are aimed at getting Iran to renegotiate the nuclear deal, which offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Iran’s nuclear program.
Washington denies its ultimate aim is to end the rule of Shiite Muslim clerics — though John Bolton, an architect of the pressure campaign, called for regime change before he became Trump’s national security adviser.
Some say Washington’s actions appear to have strengthened the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard and other hard-liners at the expense of President Hassan Rouhani, once the nuclear deal’s most prominent champion.
The Guard has been able to deepen its role in the economy, domestic politics and foreign policy under the guise of security, said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Despite the economic upheaval, there have only been sporadic protests.
Iran analyst Adnan Tabatabai said he believes Iranians are “reluctant to take their grievances to the street” for now, amid fear of further chaos and pushback by the authorities.
The economy contracted by 4.9% from March 2018 to March 2019. It is expected to shrink by an additional 5.5% in the year ending March 2020, according to Iranian figures. The official inflation rate has risen to 35%, up from 23.8% in the March 2018 to March 2019 period.
The housing and construction sector, which makes up about one-quarter of the economy and is the top destination for savings and investments, has been thrown out of balance.
Property owners are reluctant to sell and landlords are sharply raising rents because of the currency collapse, said Ali Dadpay, a finance professor at the University of Dallas. He said an estimated 490,000 homes stand empty in and around the capital, including more than 40,000 units added this year.
At the same time, construction lags far behind the need of 1.2 million new homes a year nationwide, said Hesam Oghabaei, deputy head of the Tehran association of real estate agents. He said about 25% of Tehran’s residents live in rented apartments, and the vast majority cannot afford the price increases.
The Peyman family — elderly parents and eight adult children — own a 110 square meter (1,180 square feet) apartment in Tehran’s District 12, a poor area plagued by drug addiction and other social problems. More than a decade ago, the Peymans rented the apartment, and used the extra income to move to a nicer area.
Now they are back in District 12, renovating the old apartment after being squeezed out of the good neighborhood by a rent hike.
“We have to come here because we have no other choice,” said the patriarch, Muslim, 65. Four unmarried children will live with him and his wife. Across-the-board price increases put marriage out of reach.
One of Tehran’s newest areas, District 22, is under construction on the northwestern edge of the city. It consists of apartment high-rises and shopping malls arranged around an artificial lake called Chitgar.
Maryam Alidadi and her husband bought an 82-square-meter (880 square feet) apartment here in December, downsizing by a third from their rented home in a more affluent area.
“Our standard of living has dropped considerably,” she said, adding that she now regrets having quit her government job four years ago when her son Rami was born.
The US sanctions have proven particularly devastating for Iran’s large middle class, said Dadpay, the finance professor. “This is the economic class that depends on the global economy, depends on their skillsets, and most of them are earning fixed incomes,” he said.
The economic freefall could shape Iran’s domestic politics, with parliament elections in February posing the first test. Middle class voters have traditionally favored reformist candidates but might sit out voting because of a lack of alternatives, inadvertently boosting hard-liners.
Pro-reform politicians who favor a greater opening to the West are closely linked to the nuclear deal.
With the deal faltering, the hard-liners, including the Revolutionary Guard, are becoming more entrenched, said Geranmayeh, the analyst.
The Guard, she said, “is going to be a force to be reckoned with for many years to come.”
US sanctions squeeze Iran middle class, upend housing sector
US sanctions squeeze Iran middle class, upend housing sector
- Most Iranians were hit hard by the collapse of the national currency, accelerating inflation and eroding wages
- Perhaps most devastating for Iran’s large middle class has been the sharp spike in housing prices, more than double in a year
ADNOC boosts drilling capabilities with 2 new jack-up rigs
- ADNOC Drilling will expand its fleet to 142 platforms
- UAE possesses the sixth-largest crude oil reserves globally
JEDDAH: The Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. has received two new jack-up rigs, reinforcing its position as one of the largest drillship fleet owners globally.
ADNOC Drilling will launch the new rigs by the first quarter of next year, expanding its fleet to 142 platforms. This marks a strong year for the company, showcasing its performance and strategy, according to UAE state news agency WAM.
For over 50 years, ADNOC Drilling has been the exclusive provider of drilling and rig-related services to ADNOC Group under agreed contractual terms, supporting the firm’s upstream operations in exploring and developing oil and gas resources in the UAE.
With most of the Gulf country’s crude oil and gas reserves located in Abu Dhabi, ADNOC oversees the majority of nationwide exploration, appraisal, development, and production activities, which are managed by ADNOC, either independently or in partnership with third parties.
In its analysis of the company’s performance, JPMorgan, a global financial services firm and one of the largest and most influential investment banks in the world, said: “Since its initial public offering, ADNOC Drilling has proven to be a high-quality, defensive business, consistently meeting and surpassing guidance and expectations. The exceptional performance also reflects positive progress with ADNOC Drilling’s two joint ventures.”
The UAE possesses the sixth-largest crude oil reserves globally, with approximately 107 billion stock tank barrels of proven oil reserves. Since its inception in 1972, ADNOC Drilling has played a crucial role in enabling ADNOC to unlock the country’s oil and gas resources efficiently and reliably, contributing to the nation’s energy sector.
This year, Enersol, a joint venture between Alpha Dhabi Holding and ADNOC Drilling, acquired four oilfield services technology companies, while Turnwell, another business partnership between ADNOC, SLB, and Patterson-UTI, set a record for initial well delivery time, accelerating the development of the UAE’s unconventional energy reserves.
Following its second upward guidance revision this year alongside its third-quarter results, ADNOC Drilling is on track to deliver its best-ever performance in Q4. ADNOC Drilling anticipates at least mid-single-digit expansion as it scales operations, according to WAM.
ADNOC forecasts a rise in drilling activity in the coming years, driven by its commitment to increasing crude oil production capacity by 25 percent, reaching five million barrels per day by 2027.
As the company looks to expand beyond the UAE and explore opportunities in the region, it foresees a growing need to expand its rig fleet to support its strategic growth plans.
The energy giant believes that expanding its rig fleet will enhance its current capabilities in rig hire, drilling, completion services, and associated operations and enable the company to offer unconventional drilling and biogenic well services. This expansion is expected to contribute to increased revenue and profitability.
Terminal 4 at Cairo International Airport to boost Egypt’s aviation and tourism sectors
RIYADH: Egypt is advancing its aviation sector with the ongoing development of Terminal 4 at Cairo International Airport, set to accommodate 30 million passengers annually.
According to a statement from the Cabinet, the “New Republic Air Gateway” project is expected to bolster the country’s tourism goals, improve traveler experiences, and position Egypt as an international aviation hub.
This year, the government announced plans to involve the private sector in airport management, including a global tender for Cairo International.
Egypt’s aviation sector also improved 36 spots to 27th in the 2024 edition of the Air Transport Infrastructure Index, aligning with Vision 2030’s focus on sustainable development, innovation, and global competitiveness.
Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, during a meeting at the New Administrative Capital, reviewed progress on the project alongside Minister of Civil Aviation Sameh El-Hefny. The session focused on the terminal’s specifications, implementation strategy, and potential to reshape the African nation’s aviation and tourism landscapes.
“Airport development works come within the framework of presidential directives to upgrade the Egyptian airport system, raise its capacity and improve the level of services provided to passengers,” he said.
At the meeting, Madbouly emphasized the importance of creating world-class facilities to accommodate rising traveler numbers.
El-Hefny outlined the project’s phased execution, with completion expected within four to five years. He also revealed that negotiations are underway with international firms specializing in airport construction and management to ensure world-class execution.
The minister emphasized the cutting-edge features of the new terminal, including its ability to initially handle 30 million passengers annually, with expansion potential to 40 million.
In September 2023, Cairo Airport Co. partnered with Pangiam, a trade and travel technology company, and signed two agreements to develop the new terminal. These deals, focused on enhancing the airport’s operations with advanced technology, include a feasibility study to incorporate emerging technologies and deliver a seamless travel experience.
The terminal will feature a state-of-the-art runway equipped with advanced navigation and lighting technologies that meet international standards.
Once operational, Terminal 4 is expected to elevate Cairo International Airport’s global status, making it a hub for regional and international travel.
Saudi banks report 24% profit growth amid strong non-interest income
RIYADH: Saudi banks’ aggregate profit reached SR7.7 billion ($2.05 billion) in October, marking a 23.67 percent year-on-year increase, newly released data has revealed.
According to the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, these figures represent profits before zakat and taxes.
Cumulatively, from the beginning of the year to the end of October, banks recorded a total profit of SR73.28 billion, compared to SR64.47 billion during the same period last year.
The increase in banks’ profits is primarily attributed to a combination of favorable factors that highlight the sector’s strength and ability to adapt.
The third quarter of 2024 marked a significant turning point, with non-interest income playing a pivotal role.
According to a Fitch Ratings report published in November, strong gains on securities and trading contributed SR1.4 billion to non-interest income, offsetting higher financing impairment charges and helping push combined quarterly profits to SR20 billion.
This growth followed SAMA’s decision to implement a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in September, which mirrored the US Federal Reserve’s shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy.
The rising interest rate environment that characterized much of the Gulf region in recent years had previously bolstered bank returns on loans, as higher borrowing costs translated into greater income from financing activities.
However, this dynamic also increased funding costs, particularly for savings accounts and external liabilities.
Many Saudi banks navigated these challenges by diversifying their funding sources, tapping into external markets, and issuing a record $13 billion in debt in the first eight months of 2024 to meet growing foreign-currency financing demands, particularly for giga-projects.
Despite these efforts, deposit growth in the third quarter of 2024 lagged behind earlier quarters, according to Fitch, reflecting the sector’s strategic pivot toward external funding to sustain its expansion.
The recent shift in monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, which influences rates in Saudi Arabia due to the riyal’s peg to the dollar, has injected new dynamics into the financial landscape.
After a period of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the Fed lowered interest rates by 50 basis points in September, followed by successive 25-basis-point cuts in November and December, signaling a focus on boosting economic growth as inflation eased to acceptable levels.
This policy change benefited Saudi banks by improving the valuation of certain securities, as noted by Fitch, and created a more favorable environment for non-interest income growth.
Another critical factor underpinning Saudi banks’ profitability has been their robust asset quality and prudent risk management.
The average impaired financing ratio, according to Fitch Ratings, remained low at 1.5 percent by the end of the third quarter, with provision coverage at a healthy 116 percent.
This stability reflects the resilience of Saudi banks in managing risks associated with their expanding financing books, which grew by 3.6 percent during the quarter, led by strong performances from banks like Aljazira, Saudi Awwal Bank, and Saudi Investment Bank.
The sector’s healthy operating environment is supported by the Kingdom’s broader economic stability and strategic investments under Vision 2030, which continue to drive demand for corporate financing.
While external liabilities and a negative net foreign asset position present challenges, Saudi banks remain well-capitalized, with average Common Equity Tier 1 ratios of 15.6 percent, and are positioned to maintain strong asset quality metrics as they navigate a shifting global monetary landscape.
The combination of rising non-interest income, strategic funding diversification, and favorable monetary policy shifts underscores the resilience of Saudi Arabia’s banking sector, making it a key player in the region’s economic transformation.
As SAMA continues to align with global trends, Saudi banks are poised to further strengthen their profitability while maintaining a balanced approach to growth and risk management.
Saudi Arabia strengthens food security with trout farming breakthrough
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s food security strategy has received a boost with a trout farming project developed through a partnership between King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology and King Abdulaziz University.
The initiative, carried out at KACST’s research station in Al-Muzahmiyya Governorate, was supported by the Ministry of Environment, Water, and Agriculture’s National Livestock and Fisheries Development Program.
The project introduces trout as a species suited for diverse environmental conditions, expanding the availability of fish with high nutritional value. This move aims to address the growing domestic demand for seafood while mitigating potential supply chain disruptions.
This aligns with Saudi Vision 2030, which set a target of increasing domestic fish production to 600,000 tonnes annually to ensure sustainable food supplies.
The initiative also supports the National Fisheries Development Program’s goals of optimizing resource use, boosting the sector’s contribution to gross domestic product, achieving seafood self-sufficiency, and diversifying income sources.
The new project employs a recirculating aquaculture system, which uses less water than traditional methods and reduces the risk of parasites and viral infections that could harm fish.
These advanced systems also regulate key environmental factors in fish farming, such as temperature, oxygen levels, and nutrition, thereby enhancing aquatic animals health and quality.
This initiative aligns with the National Laboratory’s ongoing efforts to localize RAS technology using fresh water.
Trout were farmed and raised from the egg incubation stage to the point where they reached a commercial size of over 1,200 grams.
This success has encouraged the private sector to adopt the technology across various regions in Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh, Makkah, Al-Baha, and the northern regions.
Trout and other cold-water river fish were specifically chosen for local farming to meet the growing demand for high-protein, omega-3-rich, and vitamin-packed fish, which are essential for human health.
In October, the Ministry of Environment, Water, and Agriculture announced that Saudi Arabia’s fisheries and aquaculture production increased by 55.56 percent in 2023, surpassing 140,000 tonnes. This highlights the Kingdom’s commitment to achieving food self-sufficiency and promoting sustainable development.
The ministry noted that the country has achieved record-breaking production levels in saltwater and inland aquaculture projects, surpassing the 90,000 tonnes recorded in 2021.
Aquaculture in the Kingdom, which began in 1982, has grown substantially, establishing the nation as a leading exporter of white shrimp.
‘Paradigm shift’ as GCC urban population to surge 30% by 2030: Arthur D. Little
RIYADH: Urban populations across the Gulf Cooperation Council region are projected to grow 30 percent from 2020 to 2030, increasing demand for housing, infrastructure, and inclusive development, analysts say.
In its latest report, international management consulting firm Arthur D. Little said that 90 percent of GCC residents will live in cities by 2050, providing a $150 billion economic regional opportunity.
The study revealed that Saudi Arabia is leading this transition, with the Kingdom eyeing to build 500,000 new housing units to meet the rising demand.
Saudi Arabia is undertaking a dozen giga-projects to address the needs of its growing urban population. These developments are key to the government’s economic diversification goals, forming a core component of Vision 2030.
“We’re witnessing a paradigm shift. This isn’t about building cities — it’s about creating living, breathing economic ecosystems that grow from within local communities,” said Rajesh Duneja, lead researcher at Arthur D. Little.
Driven by Vision 2030 objectives and its Quality of Life Program, Saudi Arabia is striving for three of its cities to be recognized among the top 100 in the world for livability.
The consulting firm added that the Kingdom’s ongoing efforts are not just a construction initiative but a catalyst for opportunity, education, and long-term economic contribution, with Saudi Arabia embedding workforce development, small and medium enterprises, and local engagement in this journey.
Earlier this month, a report released by real estate and investment management firm JLL said that the ongoing urban infrastructure development in Saudi Arabia is creating new hotspots for growth, driven by a surge in tourism and economic diversification efforts.
In July, an analysis by British property consultancy Savills said that the Kingdom’s capital city, Riyadh, is poised to be one of the fastest-growing metropolizes in the world over the next decade, driven by the growth of the country’s mega projects.
In July, a report released by Statista also outlined urbanization progress in Arab world nations, with Kuwait already having a 100 percent urban population in 2023.
Statista added that 99.35 percent of people in Qatar live in urban areas, followed by Bahrain, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, with 89.87 percent, 87.78 percent, and 84.95 percent, respectively.
The Arthur D. Little report said the surging demand for housing and infrastructure in the region also calls for community-driven strategies to adopt a more inclusive approach, as traditional infrastructure models alone cannot meet the scale of this demand.
“The pace of urbanization across the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, is unprecedented. To ensure that ambitious goals, such as those embodied in Vision 2030, are reached, it is vitally important that communities participate in, and feel part of, the changes,” said Arthur D. Little.
The analysis added that these community-focused strategies are not only enhancing social impact but also driving economic growth.
The management consulting firm projected that community-focused initiatives could support the region’s 4 percent gross domestic product growth trajectory, reinforcing its economic resilience amid global challenges.
“This is not just urban development. It’s the emergence of a new economic blueprint that places human potential at its core,” said Maurice Salem, principal at Arthur D. Little Middle East.
According to the study, the region’s demographic profile also strengthens the necessity for a community-driven approach.
“With only 3 percent of the population in Saudi Arabia over the age of 65, the Middle East has an unparalleled opportunity to leverage its young, dynamic workforce,” said the report.
It added: “When integrated with local talent, cultural heritage, and SME development, infrastructure projects become engines of socio-economic transformation.”