TEHRAN, Iran: Stay-at-home mom Maryam Alidadi used to lead a comfortable middle-class life. The 35-year-old and her husband, a mechanic, could afford a spacious rental apartment in a central neighborhood of Tehran, along with a car, occasional restaurant meals and holidays abroad.
Now they are barely hanging on, even after drastically cutting spending.
Like most Iranians, the family was hit hard by the collapse of the national currency, accelerating inflation and eroding wages — fallout from unprecedented US sanctions.
Perhaps most devastating for Iran’s large middle class has been the sharp spike in housing prices, more than double in a year. That has uprooted tenants and made home ownership unattainable for most.
The Alidadis sold their car and borrowed from friends and family to buy a smaller apartment in a less desirable area on the outskirts of Tehran — in hindsight a smart move, since they’ve been priced out of their old neighborhood by now.
“Right now, this is the most difficult period ever,” said Alidadi’s 58-year-old mother, Shahla Allahverdi, reflecting on the Islamic Republic’s 40-year history as she shared a park bench with her daughter.
Iranians worry about the future as tensions between Iran and the West continue to rise.
The escalation — triggered by the Trump administration’s withdrawal last year from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers — seems unstoppable, and European mediators trying to defuse the situation keep coming up short.
The showdown between Washington and Tehran has upended the lives of Iranians as they try to survive on less. A bride borrowed a wedding dress because she couldn’t afford to buy or even rent one. More newlyweds move in with their families to save money. Visa requests are up at foreign embassies, with young Iranians eager to leave.
Some wonder how far Washington is willing to push its “maximum pressure” campaign.
The Trump administration says the sanctions are aimed at getting Iran to renegotiate the nuclear deal, which offered sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Iran’s nuclear program.
Washington denies its ultimate aim is to end the rule of Shiite Muslim clerics — though John Bolton, an architect of the pressure campaign, called for regime change before he became Trump’s national security adviser.
Some say Washington’s actions appear to have strengthened the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard and other hard-liners at the expense of President Hassan Rouhani, once the nuclear deal’s most prominent champion.
The Guard has been able to deepen its role in the economy, domestic politics and foreign policy under the guise of security, said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Despite the economic upheaval, there have only been sporadic protests.
Iran analyst Adnan Tabatabai said he believes Iranians are “reluctant to take their grievances to the street” for now, amid fear of further chaos and pushback by the authorities.
The economy contracted by 4.9% from March 2018 to March 2019. It is expected to shrink by an additional 5.5% in the year ending March 2020, according to Iranian figures. The official inflation rate has risen to 35%, up from 23.8% in the March 2018 to March 2019 period.
The housing and construction sector, which makes up about one-quarter of the economy and is the top destination for savings and investments, has been thrown out of balance.
Property owners are reluctant to sell and landlords are sharply raising rents because of the currency collapse, said Ali Dadpay, a finance professor at the University of Dallas. He said an estimated 490,000 homes stand empty in and around the capital, including more than 40,000 units added this year.
At the same time, construction lags far behind the need of 1.2 million new homes a year nationwide, said Hesam Oghabaei, deputy head of the Tehran association of real estate agents. He said about 25% of Tehran’s residents live in rented apartments, and the vast majority cannot afford the price increases.
The Peyman family — elderly parents and eight adult children — own a 110 square meter (1,180 square feet) apartment in Tehran’s District 12, a poor area plagued by drug addiction and other social problems. More than a decade ago, the Peymans rented the apartment, and used the extra income to move to a nicer area.
Now they are back in District 12, renovating the old apartment after being squeezed out of the good neighborhood by a rent hike.
“We have to come here because we have no other choice,” said the patriarch, Muslim, 65. Four unmarried children will live with him and his wife. Across-the-board price increases put marriage out of reach.
One of Tehran’s newest areas, District 22, is under construction on the northwestern edge of the city. It consists of apartment high-rises and shopping malls arranged around an artificial lake called Chitgar.
Maryam Alidadi and her husband bought an 82-square-meter (880 square feet) apartment here in December, downsizing by a third from their rented home in a more affluent area.
“Our standard of living has dropped considerably,” she said, adding that she now regrets having quit her government job four years ago when her son Rami was born.
The US sanctions have proven particularly devastating for Iran’s large middle class, said Dadpay, the finance professor. “This is the economic class that depends on the global economy, depends on their skillsets, and most of them are earning fixed incomes,” he said.
The economic freefall could shape Iran’s domestic politics, with parliament elections in February posing the first test. Middle class voters have traditionally favored reformist candidates but might sit out voting because of a lack of alternatives, inadvertently boosting hard-liners.
Pro-reform politicians who favor a greater opening to the West are closely linked to the nuclear deal.
With the deal faltering, the hard-liners, including the Revolutionary Guard, are becoming more entrenched, said Geranmayeh, the analyst.
The Guard, she said, “is going to be a force to be reckoned with for many years to come.”
US sanctions squeeze Iran middle class, upend housing sector
US sanctions squeeze Iran middle class, upend housing sector
- Most Iranians were hit hard by the collapse of the national currency, accelerating inflation and eroding wages
- Perhaps most devastating for Iran’s large middle class has been the sharp spike in housing prices, more than double in a year
Oil Updates – prices edge up as investors eye US election fallout
- US dollar near four-month high as markets digest Trump win
- China may face Iran crude squeeze if Trump ramps up sanctions
- China’s October crude oil imports fall
SINGAPORE: Oil prices ticked up on Thursday following a sell-off triggered by the US presidential election, as risks to oil supply from a Trump presidency and a hurricane building in the Gulf Coast outweighed a stronger dollar and lower crude imports in top importer China.
Brent crude oil futures were up 29 cents, or 0.39 percent, at $75.21 per barrel by 10:00 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 18 cents or 0.25 percent to $71.87.
Concerns around a Trump presidency squeezing oil supply from Iran and Venezuela as well as an approaching storm “more than offset the post-election impact of a stronger US dollar and ... higher-than-expected US inventories,” Tony Sycamore, a market analyst with IG, wrote in a note.
Trump’s election had initially triggered a sell-off that pushed oil prices down by more than $2 as the US dollar rose to its highest level since September 2022. But the front-month contracts pared losses to settle down 61 cents for Brent and 30 cents for WTI by the end of the Wednesday session.
“Historically, Trump’s policies have been pro-business, which likely supports overall economic growth and increases demand for fuel. However, any interference in the Fed’s easing policies could lead to further challenges for the oil market,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
“With the bumper surge in the dollar hovering at near 4-month highs, oil seems to be talking massive headwinds in the aftermath of the US election results.”
The upside to oil markets may be limited to the short to medium term as OPEC is expected to increase supply capacity in January, while historical trends do not suggest sanctions will prevent India and China from continuing to purchase oil from Russia or Iran, Sachdeva said.
Crude oil imports in China, the world’s largest crude importer, fell 9 percent in October, posting a sixth consecutive monthly year-on-year decline as a plant closure at a state oil refinery adds to weaker demand from independent refiners, data showed on Thursday.
Donald Trump is expected to reimpose his “maximum pressure policy” of sanctions on Iranian oil. That could cut supply by as much as 1 million barrels per day, according to an Energy Aspect estimate.
Trump in his first term had also put in place harsher sanctions on Venezuelan oil, measures that were briefly rolled back by the Biden administration but later reinstated.
In North America, Hurricane Rafael intensified into a category 3 hurricane on Wednesday, and about 17 percent of crude oil production or 304,418 barrels per day in the US Gulf of Mexico had been shut in response, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said.
US crude inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels to 427.7 million barrels in the week ending on Nov. 1, the US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, compared with expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel rise.
Trump comeback drives gains in US stocks and dollar; Bitcoin roars to record, Treasuries slide
- Trump’s pledges to raise tariffs, cut taxes and slash regulations encouraged investors to dive into a range of assets that looked likely to benefit from such policies
- Markets that could suffer under tougher tariffs bore the brunt of the sell-off. Mexican peso slumps while the euro was set for its largest daily drop since 2020
NEW YORK/LONDON: Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election unleashed a massive rally in the dollar, drove stocks to record highs and punished bond prices as expectations of tax cuts and tariffs on imports drove optimism about economic growth while fueling worries about inflation.
US equity indexes soared, with the benchmark S&P 500 up 2.51 percent to a record high and huge gains in areas such as small-cap stocks and banks that are poised to benefit from Trump’s expected lighter regulatory touch.
The dollar hit its highest level in over four months. Bitcoin hit record highs and Treasuries were battered.
“Everywhere you look, there’s the thumbprints of these election results for markets,” said Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Trump’s pledges to raise tariffs, cut taxes and slash regulations encouraged investors to dive into a range of assets that looked likely to benefit from such policies.
Markets that could suffer under tougher tariffs bore the brunt of the sell-off. The Mexican peso slumped to its lowest level in over two years while the euro was set for its largest daily drop since 2020.
Currency trading was intense. CME Group said by 10 a.m. CT, online trading of the Offshore Chinese Renminbi already had hit $33 billion in notional value, an all-time high. In the same time span, the traded notional value of futures contracts on the Mexican peso was 43 percent above the average daily volume.
Bolstering confidence in “Trump trades,” Republicans won control of the US Senate. Investors were still awaiting results in the House of Representatives, and Republican control would clear the path for Trump’s agenda.
The election could have far-reaching implications for tax and trade policy, as well as US institutions, affecting assets globally.
Interest rates seen higher
Investors sold US Treasuries, partly on the expectation that higher tariffs would inevitably filter through to consumer prices, but also because Trump’s promises on spending could boost government debt levels. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 4.48 percent, its highest level in over four months but retreated slightly.
“If he’s able to fully implement his agenda, it means bigger deficits, bigger tax cuts, and also, because of tariffs, higher inflation,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “The higher inflation and the bigger deficits should push up long-term interest rates.”
In stocks, shares of Tesla, headed by Trump supporter Elon Musk, jumped 14.75 percent. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose nearly 6 percent, while the S&P 500 banks index jumped 10.68 percent.
Bitcoin surged to a record high, betting on a softer line on cryptocurrency regulation.
“Trump’s win likely means some deregulation, including rolling back banking regulations,” BlackRock Investment Institute said.
Investors started trading early. Retail trading platform Robinhood Markets had its largest-ever overnight trading session since it introduced that option in May 2023. The company said its total volume was 11 times a typical overnight trading session, with investors flocking to securities that pundits believe are likely to benefit from a second Trump presidency, ranging from Coinbase Global and the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF to companies owned by Trump and his wealthiest fan, Elon Musk.
The results meant markets gained clarity about the presidency faster than in 2020, when Joe Biden was announced the victor some four days after election night.
“This is an economy that’s in good shape as we go into the next Congress and the next administration, and the stock market is reflecting that with the removal of this uncertainty overhang,” said Kurt Reiman, head of fixed income Americas and lead of the ElectionWatch at UBS Wealth Management.
Market attention is turning to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Thursday, with Trump’s victory set to potentially put the central bank on a slower and shallower path for interest-rate cuts, should the Republican’s plans juice the economy.
“We now expect just one Fed cut in 2025, with policy on hold until the realized inflation shock from tariffs has passed,” economists at Nomura said in a note.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 12,093
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index gained 78.41 points or 0.65 percent to close at 12,093.35 on Wednesday.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR7.57 billion ($2.02 billion), with 168 of the listed stocks advancing and 60 declining.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also gained 22.06 points to close at 28,853.64, while the MSCI Tadawul Index edged up by 11.93 points to 1,519.76.
The best-performing stocks on the benchmark index were Al-Baha Investment and Development Co. and Tourism Enterprise Co., whose share prices surged by 10 percent and 6.32 percent, to SR0.33 and SR1.01, respectively.
The worst performer of the day was Almunajem Foods Co. The firm’s share price edged down by 7.81 percent to SR106.20.
On the announcements front, Arabian Drilling Co. reported a net profit of SR251.24 million in the first nine months of this year, representing a 40.06 percent decline compared to the same period in 2023.
In a Tadawul statement, the company attributed this net income decline to higher net finance expenses, as well as depreciation and amortization costs. Despite the net profit drop, Arabian Drilling Co.’s share prices did not change on Wednesday and remained at SR111.60.
Saudi Arabian Mining Co., also known as Ma’aden, announced that its net profit for the first nine months of this year reached SR2.97 billion, compared to a net loss of SR83.43 million in the same period in 2023.
In a Tadawul statement, the mining firm attributed the rise in profit to higher sales prices and volumes, as well as lower depreciation expenses.
Maaden's share price edged up 4.07 percent to SR56.20.
Saudi Electricity Co. announced that its net profit for the first nine months of this year, after deducting the payments of the Mudaraba coupon, reached SR5.58 billion, marking a 21.3 percent rise compared to the same period in the previous year.
SEC’s nine-month profit rose to SR12.1 billion before Mudaraba coupon payments, up from SR10.3 billion in the same period last year.
SEC’s share price surged by 6.28 percent to SR17.26 on Wednesday.
Saudi Industrial Development Co., which also announced its earnings report, said that it narrowed its net loss to SR20.07 million in the first nine months of this year, compared to a net loss of SR21.8 million in the year-ago period.
SIDC’s share price edged down by 0.71 percent to SR27.90.
Saudi Ground Services Co. reported a net profit of SR231.27 million in the first nine months of this year, representing a 54.33 percent year-on-year rise.
In a Tadawul statement, the company attributed this rise in net profit to an increase in both domestic and international flight operations, especially during the Hajj and Umrah seasons.
The share price of SGS did not witness any change on Wednesday, and the company closed the trading session at SR52.20.
Saudi real estate to see $48bn in deals at Cityscape Global 2024
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector is poised for another major boost with an estimated SR180 billion ($48 billion) in deals expected to be signed at Cityscape Global 2024, taking place in Riyadh from Nov. 11-14.
The event will feature a global investment forum with representatives from 22 countries managing over $3.2 trillion in assets, further solidifying Riyadh’s position as a key capital hub.
Over 30,000 housing units from international developers will also be launched, marking a significant entry into the Saudi market.
Cityscape Global 2024, hosted at Riyadh’s Exhibition and Convention Center in Malham, stands as a major platform for innovation and growth. It underscores Saudi Arabia’s ongoing evolution in real estate, driven by Vision 2030, and its commitment to sustainable development in this vital sector.
The event will host nearly 200 international companies from 50 countries, along with 104 local developers and over 70 global real estate investors. This diverse representation will create a unique platform for shaping the future of real estate in the Kingdom. This year’s edition will span a remarkable 120,000 sq. meters — double the size of the previous edition.
Unprecedented growth
The Saudi real estate sector has seen exceptional growth, with local developers increasing from 48 to 104 in just one year and international developers rising from 54 to 69. This expansion is reflected in the sector’s performance in 2024, with over 280,000 real estate transactions worth more than SR636 billion.
According to the 2024 Global Real Estate Transparency Index, Saudi Arabia’s market ranks among the world’s most improved, raising expectations for Cityscape 2024 and attracting more attention to the Kingdom’s burgeoning real estate opportunities.
Championing the growth
Much of this progress is driven by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Municipalities and Housing Majid Al-Hogail who has been instrumental in strengthening the sector’s regulatory framework.
Under his leadership, the real estate sector now contributes over 12 percent to Saudi Arabia’s non-oil gross domestic product.
Al-Hogail’s vision includes promoting sustainable urban development, enhancing homeownership rates, and creating smart cities through transformative projects like NEOM and The Line.
Cityscape’s role
Cityscape Global 2024 will showcase Saudi Arabia’s real estate advancements, offering an immersive experience for participants. A holographic map of future cities will allow attendees to explore designs, buildings, and street layouts that represent the Kingdom’s vision for sustainable urban development.
With Al-Hogail’s leadership, Cityscape 2024 is poised to pave the way for an innovative and sustainable real estate future in Saudi Arabia.
A global real estate leader
Cityscape Global 2024 is more than just an event; it is a testament to Saudi Arabia’s rapid development and commitment to excellence. As the Kingdom positions itself as a global leader in real estate, Cityscape will drive the sector to new heights, aligned with the country’s Vision 2030 and its pursuit of creating thriving, sustainable communities.
Saudi Aramco slashes December oil prices for Asian buyers
RIYADH: Saudi Aramco has reduced its December pricing for Arab Light crude oil for Asian buyers, according to the latest price list released by the state-owned oil giant. The official selling price for Arab Light crude was cut by 50 cents, bringing it to $1.70 per barrel above the regional benchmark.
Similarly, the OSPs for Arab Extra Light and Super Light grades were also reduced by 50 cents per barrel for December, while the OSPs for Arab Medium and Heavy grades saw smaller cuts of 40 cents per barrel.
For North America, Aramco set the December OSP for its flagship Arab Light crude at $3.80 per barrel above the Argus Sour Crude Index. The price differential for Arab Light crude in Western Europe was set at $0.15 above the ICE Brent benchmark, according to an official statement.
Aramco produces five grades of crude oil: Super Light, Arab Light, Arab Extra Light, Arab Medium, and Arab Heavy.
These grades are distinguished by their density: Super Light has a density of more than 40, Arab Extra Light ranges between 36 and 40, Arab Light between 32 and 36, Arab Medium between 29 and 32, and Arab Heavy has a density of less than 29.
The global oil market has been under pressure in recent days, with crude oil prices falling 2.5 percent on Wednesday, ending a five-day winning streak.
This decline was largely attributed to a stronger US dollar, as early reports suggested that Donald Trump is edging closer to securing a second term in the White House. A stronger dollar tends to exert downward pressure on oil and other commodities, making them more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
As a result, Brent crude oil futures dropped to $73.64 per barrel, marking a 2.5 percent decrease from the previous close of $75.53. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to around $70.22 per barrel, down 2.45 percent from the prior close of $71.99.
Crude oil prices have been subject to significant fluctuations recently, influenced by several key factors. These include OPEC+’s decision to delay its December production plans for the second time, rising tensions in the Middle East, expectations surrounding the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting, and early signs of economic improvement in China, the world’s largest crude importer.
