NAIROBI: Uganda Airlines has taken to the skies once more after almost two decades out of action, but flies into a crowded aviation market in Africa where carriers have the weakest finances and emptiest planes of any region in the world.
The state carrier launched commercial flights on Wednesday, its first since it was liquidated in 2001, aiming to take a slice of the East African aviation business that is dominated by Ethiopian Airlines, the continent's success story.
Uganda is the latest African government to pour money into national flag carriers; Tanzania and Senegal are also resurrecting their airlines, while the likes of Rwanda, Ivory Coast and Togo are expanding theirs.
But such efforts have been hampered by high business costs as well as protectionism, which has impeded a continental open-skies agreement - something industry experts say is vital for the success of African carriers in a tough market.
The African market is forecast to grow almost 5% a year over the next two decades in terms of passengers, faster than mature markets, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). However, this is from a low base and most state-owned flag carriers in the region are losing money.
While the global aviation industry is on track to make a profit of $28 billion, African airlines are projected to make combined losses of $100 million this year, IATA said in June.
Uganda Airlines, like some of its rivals, aims to attract more domestic travellers to help it buck the gloomy continental trend. Around 2 million passengers per year travel through Entebbe, Uganda's main airport. Around 70% are Ugandans, said the carrier's CEO Ephraim Bagenda.
"All those currently travel on foreign airlines," he told Reuters. "We want part of that cake."
Last year, it looked like Africa was making progress on an open-skies agreement - the Single African Air Transport Market - to let airlines decide how frequently they fly between cities and which aircraft they use.
A total of 28 countries have signed up, accounting for 75-80% of African air traffic. Uganda is considering signing, Works and Transport Minister Monica Azuba Ntege said.
However, so far only 10 signatories - including Cape Verde, Ghana, Togo, Ethiopia and Nigeria - have begun changing their own laws to implement the deal and open up their markets, said Raphael Kuuchi, Vice President for Africa at IATA.
The patchy efforts undermine the agreement and hobble direct connections within Africa, say analysts. Some airlines, including from countries that have signed up, oppose the open-skies deal because they fear bigger competitors.
"The most subsidised airlines and the biggest ones are going to take the biggest market share because they (are) able to afford it," Kenya Airways CEO Sebastian Mikosz told an investor briefing on Tuesday. "They are going to kill the smaller national airlines which are just starting because they will have no way to defend themselves."
Ethiopian Airlines, sub-Saharan Africa's only successful large state-owned airline, has bucked the regional trend and has been expanding fast, thanks in part to having secured key traffic rights in two ways.
First, it signed bilateral agreements with nearly all African countries in the 1970s, activating them as needed, said Kuuchi. The airline flew to parts of the continent served by few other carriers and leveraged that goodwill to open up markets.
"Governments were willing to give them additional rights, and travel rights, once you give them out, it's very difficult to retract," he added.
More recently, Ethiopian has been helping other countries launch their own carriers and taking a stake. That has created regional continental hubs in Togo, Malawi and Chad where it can pick up and feed traffic into its main hub in Addis Ababa, cementing its dominance and rivalling Gulf carriers.
Now governments are hoarding travel rights to protect their own airlines, so African carriers are struggling to set up hubs vital to winning international travellers, said Girma Wake, former CEO of Ethiopian Airlines.
"Instead of flying point-to-point everywhere, if they can collect traffic from the low-traffic areas and bring them to major hubs and carry them from those major hubs, you will be in a better position," he told Reuters.
African aviation accounted for only 2.1% of the global market in 2018, with 92 million passenger journeys flown, and non-African airlines including Emirates and Turkish Airlines account for around 80% of traffic in and out of the continent, IATA said.
African airlines are also struggling to improve load factors - percentage of seats filled - from the world's lowest regional level of 71% in 2018, compared with 81.2% globally, according to IATA.
Emirates builds traffic through its global Dubai hub, an advantage most African airlines don't have - except Ethiopian Airlines.
As well as protectionism, high fuel and taxation hurt African carriers.
In Europe, a passenger can travel 1.5 hours for less than $100 all-inclusive. In Africa, passenger taxes alone range from $40 to $150 per passenger, African Airlines Association Secretary General Abderahmane Berthe told Reuters.
"Many governments are levying taxes on aviation and not reinvesting these collected amounts in aviation," he said.
Governments often see air transport as a luxury that can sustain high taxes, said Air Tanzania managing director Ladislaus Matindi.
Fuel is also taxed heavily and must often be trucked in, an expensive operation. Fuel makes up about a quarter of operating costs globally but reaches 30-40% in Africa, Berthe said.
Uganda Airlines, founded by former dictator Idi Amin in 1976, was liquidated in 2001 after years of unprofitability during a push to privatise state firms.
Other African state carriers have been crippled by government interference, such as insisting on routes to unprofitable but politically important destinations.
Ghana Airways, which ceased operations in 2005, used to fly between Accra and Las Palmas, mainly because of the friendship between the leaders of the two countries, IATA's Kuuchi said.
Uganda Airlines CEO Bagenda insisted his company would be free from any political interference.
"Government policy in Uganda is eyes on, hands off," he said.
Crowded African skies get even busier with Uganda Air’s return
Crowded African skies get even busier with Uganda Air’s return
- Continent lacks Dubai-style hub as Emirates and Turkish Airlines dominate routes
Global Markets — stocks and dollar dip as Trump’s spending bill passes, trade deal deadline nears
LONDON: Stocks slipped on Friday as US President Donald Trump got his signature tax cut bill over the line and attention turned to his July 9 deadline for countries to secure trade deals with the world’s biggest economy.
The dollar also fell against major currencies with US markets already shut for the holiday-shortened week, as traders considered the impact of Trump’s sweeping spending bill which is expected to add an estimated $3.4 trillion to the national debt.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.8 percent, driven in part by losses on spirits makers such as Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau after China said it would impose duties of up to 34.9 percent on brandy from the EU starting July 5.
US S&P 500 futures edged down 0.6 percent, following a 0.8 percent overnight advance for the cash index to a fresh all-time closing peak. Wall Street is closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.
Trump said Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on exports to the US, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals before a July 9 deadline when tariffs could rise sharply.
Investors are “now just waiting for July 9,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, with the market’s lack of optimism for trade deals responsible for some of the equity weakness in export-reliant Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea.
At the same time, investors cheered the surprisingly robust jobs report on Thursday, sending all three of the main US equity indexes climbing in a shortened session.
“The US economy is holding together better than most people expected, which suggests to me that markets can easily continue to do better (from here),” Sycamore said.
Following the close, the House narrowly approved Trump’s signature, 869-page bill, which averts the near-term prospect of a US government default but adds trillions to the national debt to fuel spending on border security and the military.
Trade the key focus in Asia
Trump said he expected “a couple” more trade agreements after announcing a deal with Vietnam on Wednesday to add to framework agreements with China and Britain as the only successes so far.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that a deal with India is close. However, progress on agreements with Japan and South Korea, once touted by the White House as likely to be among the earliest to be announced, appears to have broken down.
The US dollar index had its worst first half since 1973 as Trump’s chaotic roll-out of sweeping tariffs heightened concerns about the US economy and the safety of Treasuries, but had rallied 0.4 percent on Thursday before retracing some of those gains on Friday.
As of 2:00 p.m. Saudi time it was down 0.1 percent at 96.96.
The euro added 0.2 percent to $1.1773, while sterling held steady at $1.3662.
The US Treasury bond market is closed on Friday for the holiday, but 10-year yields rose 4.7 basis points to 4.34 percent, while the two-year yield jumped 9.3 bps to 3.882 percent.
Gold firmed 0.4 percent to $3,336 per ounce, on track for a weekly gain as investors again sought refuge in safe-haven assets due to concerns over the US’s fiscal position and tariffs.
Brent crude futures fell 64 cents to $68.17 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude likewise dropped 64 cents to $66.35, as Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.
World food prices tick higher in June, led by meat and vegetable oils
PARIS: Global food commodity prices edged higher in June, supported by higher meat, vegetable oil and dairy prices, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization has said.
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 128 points in June, up 0.5 percent from May. The index stood 5.8 percent higher than a year ago, but remained 20.1 percent below its record high in March 2022.
The cereal price index fell 1.5 percent to 107.4 points, now 6.8 percent below a year ago, as global maize prices dropped sharply for a second month. Larger harvests and more export competition from Argentina and Brazil weighed on maize, while barley and sorghum also declined.
Wheat prices, however, rose due to weather concerns in Russia, the EU, and the US.
The vegetable oil price index rose 2.3 percent from May to 155.7 points, now 18.2 percent above its June 2024 level, led by higher palm, rapeseed, and soy oil prices.
Palm oil climbed nearly 5 percent from May on strong import demand, while soy oil was supported by expectations of higher demand from the biofuel sector following announcements of supportive policy measures in Brazil and the US.
Sugar prices dropped 5.2 percent from May to 103.7 points, the lowest since April 2021, reflecting improved supply prospects in Brazil, India, and Thailand.
Meat prices rose to a record 126.0 points, now 6.7 percent above June 2024, with all categories rising except poultry. Bovine meat set a new peak, reflecting tighter supplies from Brazil and strong demand from the US. Poultry prices continued to fall due to abundant Brazilian supplies.
The dairy price index edged up 0.5 percent from May to 154.4 points, marking a 20.7 percent annual increase.
In a separate report, the FAO forecast global cereal production in 2025 at a record 2.925 billion tonnes, 0.5 percent above its previous projection and 2.3 percent above the previous year.
The outlook could be affected by expected hot, dry conditions in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly for maize with plantings almost complete.
Saudi Arabia posts 4 years of VC growth despite global slowdown: report
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia achieved four consecutive years of growth in venture capital relative to its economy, a feat unmatched among its peers, according to a new report.
Between 2020 and 2023, the Kingdom was the only large market in the sample to post uninterrupted annual gains in VC intensity, contrasting with the more episodic deal flow seen across Africa and parts of Southeast Asia, MAGNiTT’s recently published Macro Meets VC report stated.
While 2024 saw a slight contraction in funding amid global tightening, Saudi Arabia’s multi-year upward trend signals a sustained commitment to innovation-led diversification.
The Kingdom is steadily consolidating its position as a model for policy-driven venture capital development in emerging markets as it seeks to diversify its economy in line with the Vision 2030 blueprint.
“Saudi Arabia is becoming the model for long-term, policy-driven ecosystem building,” the report notes, highlighting that sovereign limited partners and local funds have been instrumental in buffering the Kingdom from some of the volatility that struck other emerging venture markets.
Saudi Arabia’s policy momentum
The MAGNiTT data revealed that Saudi Arabia recorded a five-year average VC-to-GDP ratio of 0.07 percent.
Although this figure remains modest compared to more mature hubs like Singapore, its consistent upward movement underscores the growing depth of domestic capital formation.
Beyond the headline ratios, the Kingdom’s strategic positioning has also come into sharper focus. Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE, is classified as a “Growth Market”— a designation that reflects not only a sizeable GDP and population but also the rising economic clout of local consumer and enterprise demand.
With a GDP approaching $950 billion and a population exceeding 33 million, Saudi Arabia presents a significant scale advantage.
According to MAGNiTT’s benchmarking, this size creates “natural expansion targets for startups moving beyond initial launch markets,” supporting both regional and international founders seeking to diversify beyond smaller ecosystems.
MENA’s uneven progress
Across the broader Middle East and North Africa region, venture capital activity has continued to evolve unevenly.
The UAE has retained its reputation as a strategic innovation hub and one of the few “MEGA Markets” in the emerging world, boasting a five-year average VC-to-GDP ratio of 0.20 percent.
This proportion — identical to Indonesia’s ratio — signifies robust venture activity relative to the economy’s size.
Yet, while the UAE maintained this level, Saudi Arabia has seen more consistent growth in funding, a dynamic the report attributes to policy-led market development.
In Egypt, VC has gained further traction over the period under review. Egypt achieved a 25 percent rise in total funding compared to the previous five-year average, lifting its VC-GDP ratio by 0.02 percentage points to 0.11 percent.
Although Egypt’s overall economic constraints remain acute — GDP per capita still lags below $10,000 — the relative progress suggests improving investor confidence, particularly in fintech and e-commerce.
However, the report cautions that deal flow in Egypt, much like in Nigeria, remains fragile and prone to episodic swings driven by a handful of large transactions.
The macroeconomic context across MENA has also been influential. Elevated oil price volatility and the impact of the Israel–Iran conflict have created a challenging backdrop for policymakers.
Brent crude surged more than 13 percent in a single day earlier in 2025, underscoring the region’s exposure to external shocks.
Nevertheless, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE managed to maintain monetary policy stability in line with the US Federal Reserve’s cautious stance.
Saudi Arabia kept its benchmark rate at 5.5 percent, supported by inflation trending around 2 percent, while the UAE held steady at 4.4 percent.
These decisions reflected a delicate balance between containing price pressures and supporting economic diversification efforts.
Overall, MENA’s five-year aggregate venture funding reached $12.52 billion. Although this total remains well below the levels seen in more mature regions, it represents a meaningful share of emerging markets capital.
MENA also posted the highest deal count relative to its peers in Southeast Asia and Africa over the period, indicating a broader base of early-stage transactions even as late-stage funding remains more limited.
The report emphasizes that expanding geographic and sectoral reach within MENA will be critical to boosting efficiency metrics.
“VC remains heavily concentrated in a few sectors and cities,” the report observes, warning that without broader inclusion, capital intensity will struggle to match potential.
Southeast Asia’s VC benchmark
Beyond MENA, Southeast Asia’s ecosystem stands out as the most mature among emerging venture markets, driven primarily by Singapore’s exceptional performance.
Over the 2020–2024 period, Singapore achieved a 5-year average VC-to-GDP ratio of 1.3 percent, surpassing not only all emerging markets but also developed economies such as the US, which registered 0.79 percent, and the UK, with 0.73 percent.
Even with a 5.4 percent decline in total funding compared to the prior five years and a 0.19 percentage point drop in VC-GDP ratio, Singapore maintained unmatched capital efficiency.
The report describes the city-state as “a benchmark for capital efficiency in venture ecosystems,” attributing this strength to strong regulatory frameworks, institutional capital participation, and a deep bench of experienced founders and investors.
Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, recorded total VC funding volumes nearly twice as large as Singapore’s over five years, but its relative VC-GDP ratio remained lower at 0.2 percent.
This dynamic illustrates one of the report’s core findings: venture capital inflows correlate more strongly with GDP per capita than total GDP.
In Indonesia’s case, while its GDP surpassed $1.2 trillion, GDP per capita hovered around $4,000, constraining purchasing power and, by extension, startup revenue potential.
Thailand, meanwhile, reported funding gains due mainly to a single mega deal rather than systematic improvements in ecosystem depth.
In Africa, Nigeria emerged as an unexpected bright spot in 2024, as a single major transaction lifted its VC-GDP ratio to 0.15 percent — the highest in the region for that year.
However, this outlier result also revealed the episodic nature of capital deployment in developing markets.
Kenya registered a relatively high five-year VC-GDP ratio of 0.3 percent, even as absolute funding volumes remained modest.
The report notes that in low-GDP contexts, this ratio can overstate ecosystem maturity.
South Africa and Egypt showed more modest growth trajectories, weighed down by persistent inflation, structural constraints, and capital scarcity.
In aggregate, African economies continued to lag both Southeast Asia and MENA in total venture funding and deal velocity.
Global challenges ahead
Globally, the five years covered by the report were marked by intensifying volatility.
High interest rates, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on capital flows.
The US Federal Reserve held its policy rate between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent through mid-2025, citing “meaningful” inflation risks.
The European Central Bank moved to lower its deposit rate to 2 percent, reflecting cooling inflation but acknowledging sluggish growth.
The World Bank cut its global GDP forecast for 2025 to 2.3 percent, the weakest pace since the 2008 crisis, excluding recessions.
These headwinds contributed to the decline in venture capital across most emerging markets in 2024.
In response, sovereign capital and strategic investors have become increasingly important backstops.
The report highlights that domestic capital formation in MENA has partially offset declining global risk appetite.
However, these funds tend to be slower moving, more sector-concentrated, and less risk-tolerant than international investors.
“Without renewed foreign inflows or regional exit pathways, deal velocity may remain muted into the second half of 2025,” the report warns.
This environment is likely to force startups to extend runway and compel general partners to adopt more selective deployment strategies.
Despite the challenges, the outlook for Saudi Arabia and other growth markets remains constructive over the medium term.
The Kingdom’s policy clarity, deepening institutional capital pools, and Vision 2030 commitments create a foundation for continued expansion.
As the report concludes: “High GDP markets like KSA and Indonesia trail in VC efficiency — suggesting capital underutilization.”
Closing this gap between potential and realized funding will be the defining challenge for emerging ecosystems as they navigate a turbulent global landscape.
Oil Updates — crude falls as Iran affirms commitment to nuclear treaty
LONDON: Oil futures fell slightly on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation, while major producers from the OPEC+ group are set to agree to raise their output this weekend.
Brent crude futures were down 49 cents, or 0.71 percent, to $68.31 a barrel by 11:31 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 41 cents, or 0.61 percent, to $66.59.
Trade was thinned by the US Independence Day holiday.
US news website Axios reported on Thursday that the US was planning to meet with Iran next week to restart nuclear talks, while Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remained committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The US imposed fresh sanctions targeting Iran’s oil trade on Thursday.
Trump also said on Thursday that he would meet with representatives of Iran “if necessary.”
“Thursday’s news that the US is preparing to resume nuclear talks with Iran, and Araqchi’s clarification that cooperation with the UN atomic agency has not been halted considerably eases the threat of a fresh outbreak of hostilities,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.
Araqchi made the comments a day after Tehran enacted a law suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
OPEC+, the world’s largest group of oil producers, is set to announce an increase of 411,000 bpd in production for August as it looks to regain market share, four delegates from the group told Reuters.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over US tariff policies resurfaced as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levy rates approaches.
Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on goods sent to the US, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual trade deals.
President Trump told reporters before departing for Iowa on Thursday that the letters would be sent to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20 percent to 30 percent.
Trump’s 90-day pause on higher US tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the EU and Japan.
Separately, Barclays said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand.
EV maker Lucid’s quarterly deliveries rise but miss estimates
- Lucid delivered 3,309 vehicles in the quarter ended June 30
LONDON: Electric automaker Lucid on Wednesday reported a 38 percent rise in second-quarter deliveries, which, however, missed Wall Street expectations amid economic uncertainty.
Demand for Lucid’s pricier luxury EVs have been softer as consumers, pressured by high interest rates, shift toward cheaper hybrid and gasoline-powered cars.
Lucid delivered 3,309 vehicles in the quarter ended June 30, compared with estimates of 3,611 vehicles, according to seven analysts polled by Visible Alpha. It had delivered 2,394 vehicles in the same period last year.
Saudi Arabia-backed Lucid produced 3,863 vehicles in the quarter, missing estimates of 4,305 units, but above the 2,110 vehicles made a year ago.
The company stuck to its annual production target in May, allaying investor worries about manufacturing at a time when several automakers pulled their forecasts due to an uncertain outlook.
US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has led to a rise in vehicle prices as manufacturers struggle with high material costs, forcing them to reorganize supply chains and produce domestically.
Lucid’s interim CEO, Marc Winterhoff, had said in May that the company was expecting a rise of 8 percent to 15 percent in overall costs due to new tariffs.
The company’s fortunes rest heavily on the success of its newly launched Gravity SUV and the upcoming mid-size car, which targets a $50,000 price point, as it looks to expand its vehicle line and take a larger share of the market.
Deliveries at EV maker Tesla dropped 13.5 percent in the second quarter, dragged down by CEO Elon Musk’s right-wing political stances and an aging vehicle line-up that has turned off some buyers.
