PARIS: Last month was the hottest January on record, Europe’s climate monitor said Thursday, despite expectations that cooler La Nina conditions might quell a streak of record-breaking global temperatures.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service said January was 1.75C hotter than pre-industrial times, extending a persistent run of history-making highs over 2023 and 2024, as human-caused greenhouse gas emissions crank up the global thermostat.
Climate scientists had expected this exceptional spell to subside after a warming El Nino event peaked in January 2024 and conditions gradually shifted to an opposing, cooling La Nina phase.
But the heat has lingered at record or near record levels ever since, sparking debate among scientists about what other factors could be driving heating to the top end of expectations.
“This is what makes it a bit of a surprise... you’re not seeing this cooling effect, or temporary brake at least, on the global temperature that we were expecting to see,” Julien Nicolas, a climate scientist from Copernicus, told AFP.
La Nina is expected to be weak and Copernicus said prevailing temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean suggested “a slowing or stalling of the move toward” the cooling phenomenon.
Nicolas said it could disappear completely by March.

Clear sign the limit was being tested

Last month, Copernicus said that global temperatures averaged across 2023 and 2024 had exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time.
This did not represent a permanent breach of the long-term 1.5C warming target under the Paris climate accord — but a clear sign that the limit was being tested.
Scientists warn that every fraction of a degree of warming above 1.5C increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events like heatwaves, heavy rainfall and droughts.
Copernicus said Arctic sea ice in January hit a monthly record low, virtually tied with 2018. Analysis from the US this week put it at the second-lowest in that dataset.
Overall, 2025, is not expected to follow 2023 and 2024 into the history books: scientists predict it will rank the third hottest year yet.
Copernicus said it would be closely monitoring ocean temperatures throughout 2025 for hints about how the climate might behave.
Oceans are a vital climate regulator and carbon sink, and cooler waters can absorb greater amounts of heat from the atmosphere, helping to lower air temperatures.
They also store 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by humanity’s release of greenhouse gases.
“This heat is bound to resurface periodically,” said Nicolas.
“I think that’s also one of the questions — is this what has been happening over the past couple of years?“
Sea surface temperatures have been exceptionally warm over 2023 and 2024, and Copernicus said readings in January were the second highest on record.
“That is the thing that is a little puzzling — why they remain so warm,” Nicolas said.

The culprit: burning fossil fuels
Scientists are unanimous that burning fossil fuels has largely driven long-term global warming, and that natural climate variability can also influence temperatures one year to the next.
But natural warming cycles like El Nino could not alone explain what had taken place in the atmosphere and seas, and answers were being sought elsewhere.
One theory is that a global shift to cleaner shipping fuels in 2020 accelerated warming by reducing sulfur emissions that make clouds more mirror-like and reflective of sunlight.
In December, another peer-reviewed paper looked at whether a reduction in low-lying clouds had let more heat reach Earth’s surface.
“It’s really still a matter of debate,” said Nicolas.
The EU monitor uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations to aid its climate calculations.
Its records go back to 1940, but other sources of climate data — such as ice cores, tree rings and coral skeletons — allow scientists to expand their conclusions using evidence from much further in the past.
Scientists say the period being lived through right now is likely the warmest the Earth has been for the last 125,000 years.
 

WASHINGTON: Frustration boiled over Wednesday among supporters of the United States’ lead aid agency at a Washington rally, and anxious aid workers abroad scrambled to pack up households after the Trump administration abruptly pulled almost all agency staffers off the job and out of the field.
The order issued Tuesday followed 2 1/2 weeks that have seen the Trump administration and teams led by billionaire ally Elon Musk dismantle much of the US Agency for International Development, shutting down a six-decade mission intended to shore up US security by educating children, fighting epidemics and advancing other development abroad.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been touring Central America on his first visit in office, defended the administration’s broad shutdown of aid funding and other actions while saying, “Our preference would have been to do this in a more orderly fashion.”
But, Rubio said, the administration faced a lack of cooperation in an attempt to review the worth of each agency program. He gave no evidence, and agency staffers deny his and Musk’s claims of obstruction. As a result, Rubio said, the administration would now “work from the bottom up” to determine which US aid and development missions abroad were in the national interest and would be allowed to resume.
“This is not about ending foreign aid. It is about structuring it in a way that furthers the national interest of the United States,” he said in the Guatemalan capital of Guatemala City.
In Washington, Democratic lawmakers and hundreds of others rallied outside the Capitol to protest the fast-moving shutdown of an independent government agency. “This is illegal and this is a coup,” California Democratic Rep. Sara Jacobs cried.
“We are witnessing in real time the most corrupt bargain in American history,” Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen shouted to supporters at the rally, referring to Musk, his support for President Donald Trump and his role in challenging USAID and other targeted agencies.
“Lock him up!” members of the crowd chanted. Addressing Democratic lawmakers, who have promised court battles and other efforts but have been unable to slow the assault on USAID, they said: “Do your job!”
Scott Paul, a director at the Oxfam American humanitarian nonprofit, said the damage already done meant that key parts of the global aid and development system would have to be rebuilt “from scratch.”
Jennifer Kates, senior vice president and director of the global health and HIV policy program at KFF, cited one large organization alone that expects to close up to 1,226 maternal and child-care clinics serving more than 630,000 women.
“The health care system is not one that you just press on and off,” Kates said. If the US shutdown lays off staffers and closes those clinics, “you can’t just say, ‘All right, we’re ready to start again. Let’s go.’”
USAID has been one of the agencies hardest hit as the new administration and Musk’s budget-cutting team target federal programs they say are wasteful or not aligned with a conservative agenda.
US embassies in many of the more than 100 countries where USAID operates convened emergency town hall meetings for the thousands of agency staffers and contractors looking for answers. Embassy officials said they had been given no guidance on what to tell staffers, particularly local hires, about their employment status.
A USAID contractor posted in an often violent region of the Middle East said the shutdown had placed the contractor and the contractor’s family in danger because they were unable to reach the US government for help if needed.
The contractor woke up one morning earlier this week blocked from access to government email and other systems, and an emergency “panic button” app was wiped off the contractor’s smartphone.
“You really do feel cut off from a lifeline,” the contract staffer said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of a Trump administration ban forbidding USAID workers from speaking to people outside their agency.
USAID staffers and families had already faced wrenching decisions as the rumored order loomed, including whether to pull children out of school midyear. Some gave away pet cats and dogs, fearing the administration would not give workers time to complete the paperwork to bring the animals with them.
Despite the administration’s assurances that the US government would bring the agency’s workers safely home as ordered within 30 days, some feared being stranded and left to make their own way back.
Most agency spending has been ordered frozen, and most workers at the Washington headquarters have been taken off the job, making it unclear how the administration will manage and pay for the sudden relocation of thousands of staffers and their families.
The mass removal of thousands of staffers would doom billions of dollars in projects in some 120 countries, including security assistance for Ukraine and other countries, as well as development work for clean water, job training and education, including for schoolgirls under Taliban rule in Afghanistan.
The online notification to USAID workers and contractors said they would be off the job, effective just before midnight Friday, unless deemed essential. Direct hires of the agency overseas got 30 days to return home, the notice said.
The United States is the world’s largest humanitarian donor by far. It spends less than 1 percent of its budget on foreign assistance, a smaller share of its budget than some countries.
Hundreds of millions of dollars of food and medication already delivered by US companies are sitting in ports because of the shutdown.
Health programs like those credited with helping end polio and smallpox epidemics and an acclaimed HIV/AIDS program that saved more than 20 million lives in Africa have stopped. So have programs for monitoring and deploying rapid-response teams for contagious diseases such as Ebola.
South African Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi told Parliament on Wednesday that officials scrambled to meet with US Embassy staff for information after receiving no warning the Trump administration would freeze crucial funding for the world’s biggest national HIV/AIDS program.
South Africa has the world’s highest number of people living with HIV, at around 8 million, and the United States funds around 17 percent of its $2.3 billion-a-year program through the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR. The health minister did not say whether US exemptions for lifesaving care affect that work.
Democrats and others say the USAID is enshrined in legislation as an independent agency and cannot be shut down without congressional approval. Supporters of USAID from both political parties say its work overseas is essential to countering the influence of Russia, China and other adversaries and rivals abroad, and to cementing alliances and partnerships.
In Istanbul on Wednesday, Hakan Bilgin sat in the downsized office of his medical-care nonprofit, surrounded by half-unpacked boxes and worried colleagues. Days ago, Doctors of the World Turkiye received an unexpected stop-work order from USAID, forcing them to close 12 field hospitals and lay off over 300 staff members in northern Syria.
“As a medical organization providing lifesaving services, you’re basically saying, ‘Close all the clinics, stop all your doctors, and you’re not providing services to women, children and the elderly,”’ Bilgin said.