INTERVIEW: Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea project to set ‘new global standards in sustainability’, says CEO

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Updated 24 April 2022
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INTERVIEW: Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea project to set ‘new global standards in sustainability’, says CEO

  • John Pagano tells of his plans to help save world’s corals by developing ‘amazing land’ on Saudi Arabia’s western shores
  • “What really caught my attention was the passion and enthusiasm of young Saudis for Vision 2030," says Red Sea Development Co's CEO

DUBAI: John Pagano has been involved in mega-projects around the world, but “none of them will have the impact this will have on Saudi Arabia,” he said.

“This” is the Red Sea Development Company, of which he is CEO. Along with the plan to build a futuristic metropolis at NEOM in the northwest of the Kingdom, and the Qiddiya leisure resort near Riyadh, it is one of the headline initiatives of the Vision 2030 strategy to diversify away from oil dependency.

The Red Sea project is special, Pagano said. Not only because Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman fell in love with the area as a youth and was a frequent visitor, and not only because of the stunning natural beauty of the 28,000 square kilometer region of lagoons, archipelagos, canyons and volcanic geology between the two small towns of Al-Wajh and Umluj on the western coast.

Canadian-born Pagano told of how he was “sold” on the idea of running the Red Sea project when Saudi Arabia lured him out of a youthful retirement that mainly involved flying airplanes. “What really caught my attention was the passion and enthusiasm of young Saudis for Vision 2030. It was really quite intoxicating. I thought it could be quite a lot of fun to be part of the transformation of a country,” he said.

Opening up the tourism and leisure industries is a major part of the transformation. At the moment, the Kingdom derives between 3 and 4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) from this sector, most of it religious tourism from Hajj and Umrah pilgrims. Globally, tourism represents 10 percent of GDP and accounts for 10 per cent of the world’s workforce.

The Red Sea project will eventually inject SR22 billion ($5.8 billion) into the Saudi Arabian economy and lead to the creation of 70,00 jobs directly and indirectly in the Kingdom’s workforce, Pagano said.

“You have this huge opportunity to contribute and help the diversification process by developing tourism and a tourism sector which to a large extent does not really exist,” he said.

The project is certainly tourism, but with a big difference. Definitely out are the package holidays and Costa-style beach frolics. It will not be “Club Med on the Red,” in the words of one of his aides. “We are not seeking to be Dubai,” Pagano said.


BIO

BORN - Toronto, 1959

EDUCATION - BSc in mechanical engineering, University of Toronto

CAREER

  • Managing director, Canary Wharf Contractors, London
  • President, Baha Mar Development Company, Bahamas
  • Managing director, Canary Wharf Group, London
  • Principal, Old Fort Capital Investments, London
  • CEO, Red Sea Development Company

“It will be a luxury tourism destination that sets new global standards in sustainability,” Pagano said. “The idea is not to build as much on it as possible, and make as much money as we can. The idea is to protect it for generations to come.”

Luxury tourism is the fastest-growing segment of the global market, and high-rolling tourists are willing to pay top dollar for one-of-a-kind experiences. Exclusivity will be set by limiting the number of visitors. Of the 90 islands in the region, only 22 are going to be developed, and annual visits will be capped at one million in 2030, when completion is scheduled.

Nine islands are deemed to be so crucial to the ecology that they will not be built on at all, and access will be carefully controlled. One, Al-Waqqadi island, looked like the perfect tourism destination, but was discovered to be the breeding ground for the rare hawksbill sea turtle. “In the end, we said we’re not going to develop it. It shows you can balance development and conservation,” Pagano said.

If you want to get him really excited, ask about coral. “The rest of the coral reef systems around the world are dying, but this one — the fourth largest in the world — is thriving. We’re trying to figure out why. We’re working very closely with King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) and experimenting with coral growing, trying to understand the unique DNA of coral found in this part of the world.

“If you look at it, the Red Sea has warmer sea temperatures and higher salinity values, yet the coral thrives. We’re trying to work out why, and to the extent we solve that mystery, the ambition would be to export that to the rest of the world — help save the Great Barrier Reef or severely damaged Caribbean coral,” he said.




The Red Sea project is home to a number of endangered species, including the hawksbill sea turtle. (Courtesy: Red Sea Project website)

Sustainability is being built into the project’s structure. It will be 100 per cent carbon neutral and powered by renewable energy via solar and wind power, and will make use of advanced technology to solve the storage problems that have so far proved to be obstacles to renewable energy. “The technology is available but nobody has ever done it on this scale before,” he said, pointing to plans to use solar power to make ice by day and use it for cooling at night. There are even plans for “artificial trees” to aid the carbon-capture process.

Pagano is working on another project with KAUST — “Brains for brine” — that seeks to address the problem of excess salination of sea water resulting from the desalination processes widely used in the Kingdom.

But building what will eventually be 8,000 hotel rooms, an airport, a small town for the 10,000 workers on the project, on the coast of one of the busiest maritime navigation channels in the world, presents its own environmental challenges.

He was speaking the week after an Iranian tanker had leaked oil into the Red Sea, but said that commercial sea lanes were far away from the project, and big vessels could not enter the shallow lagoon system anyway.

On-site construction will be kept to a minimum by the use of prefabricated units built elsewhere in the Kingdom and then shipped to the Red Sea for assembly and installation on the islands. He will have to have 3,000 hotel keys by 2022, when phase one of the project is complete and ready to welcome the first of 300,000 annual visitors.

The technology is available, but nobody has ever done it on this scale.

Those guests are estimated to come roughly 50 percent from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, and 50 percent from the rest of the world, with a big proportion from Europe and the experience-seeking markets of Asia.

A big draw of the Red Sea region is that all-year temperatures and humidity are lower than other parts of the region, notably the Arabian Gulf. “It’s much more like a southern European climate,” he said, allowing for year-round business.

Pagano promises visitors “a constellation of experiences,” but what kind of resort will they arrive at? “We had plans for a special visa-on-arrival procedure just for us, but of course we don’t need that now that there is a Kingdom-wide tourist visa,” he said.

When the tourists get there, the resort will feel different from the rest of Saudi Arabia. It will be treated as other “special economic zones” in the Kingdom, with more relaxed social norms and an environment attractive to international visitors, he said.

“There are currently no plans to serve alcohol, but that is not our call, it’s a broader issue. But even without alcohol, there are a potential 1.5 billion tourists in the world Muslim demographic,” he said.




The Red Sea Project is designed to enhance the natural environment for future generations. (Courtesy: Red Sea Project website)

A transformational project of such ambition obviously does not come cheap, and Pagano admits to “many billions of dollars” in total construction and development costs. So far, the bills have been met by the Public Investment Fund, which has committed all the equity capital.

But Pagano is now in the market for “conventional senior debt” in a package that could reach SR10 billion ($2.6 billion). With the big infrastructure project — bridges, roads, a new airport — currently under way and contracts being announced at increasing pace — a fresh batch are promised during the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh later this month — those funds are needed, he said, and could be in place early next year.

“Plus, we are talking to a lot of investors and looking at the possibility of getting them into the project,” he said. French hotel group Accor is already involved, and he expects most of the leading global hospitality brands to play some part in it too. Contracts to build and operate the utilities on the development are currently out to tender to a number of consortia.

It is all part of the transformation under way in the Kingdom that appears to be unstoppable. By 2030, Saudi Arabia is aiming to attract 100 million visitors a year, with the elite heading to the Red Sea area to sample the “amazing piece of land” that Pagano is developing.

“It’s ambitious, but feasible. It’s starting from a low base and the vision is unprecedented,” he said.


Saudi PIF on track to reach $2tn in AuM, 2nd-largest globally by 2030

Updated 10 January 2025
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Saudi PIF on track to reach $2tn in AuM, 2nd-largest globally by 2030

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is set to be ranked second among the world’s sovereign wealth bodies by 2030 with $2 trillion in assets under management, according to monitoring organization Global SWF.

A report from the firm forecasts PIF will more than double its current AuM value of $925 billion by the end of the decade, and rise from its 2024 ranking of sixth among global state-owned investor funds.

According to projections from the institute, PIF’s AuM in 2030 will represent 10.5 percent of the global sovereign wealth funds’ total assets, which are set to reach $19 trillion, as it rises from sixth place

Diego Lopez, founder and managing director at Global SWF, said: “Capital attracts capital — so international financial institutions are attracted in partnering with a player with such a huge balance sheet and role in the economic development.”

According to the report, to achieve its ambitious goal of reaching $2 trillion by 2030, the PIF will depend on a combination of strategies. These include oil revenue allocations, which refer to the portion of the Kingdom’s oil earnings transferred to the PIF, debt issuance, and returns generated from its investments.

“Saudi Arabia needs to make its capital base sustainable, diversified and resilient to lower levels of oil prices,” Lopez told Arab News.

“That means raising debt, as PIF has been doing, and eventually raising equity through subsidiaries that can act as asset managers — we see this working very well in Abu Dhabi with Mubadala Capital, Lunate, etc,” he added.

According to the report, the PIF’s 10-year annualized return from 2013 to 2022 stood at 6.9 percent, outperforming the sovereign wealth fund average of 5.7 percent annually.

In 2024, the global economy showed resilience despite geopolitical risks and market uncertainties, with global GDP growth projected at 3.2 percent, slightly improving to 3.3 percent in 2025, according to the OECD.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts a subdued five-year outlook of 3.1 percent, reflecting weaker growth in China, Latin America, and the EU. Developed markets are facing slower growth due to tightening monetary policies, while developing economies maintain greater stability.

Central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, began easing rates in 2024, responding to reduced inflationary pressures. According to the report, as the global economy adapts, sovereign wealth funds are increasingly focused on capital preservation and stimulating foreign direct investment, with those in the Middle East and North Africa region entering a new phase of growth.

Saudi Arabia offers robust economic expansion fueled by diversification initiatives and ambitious mega-projects like NEOM, the Red Sea Project, and Qiddiya.  

PIF’s investments are strategically positioned to capitalize on these high-growth areas, making it a gateway for investors seeking exposure to dynamic emerging market opportunities.

GCC sees greater international attention

According to the report, global sovereign wealth funds have, for the first time, surpassed $13 trillion in assets under management, with capital heavily concentrated in two key regions — the Gulf Cooperation Council, holding 38 percent of the total, and Southeast Asia at 10 percent.

Interest in these powerful global investors remains strong, the report said, drawing heightened international attention to the GCC, a region with fewer than 60 million residents.

Previously named the “Region of the Year” by Global SWF, the GCC has seen a wave of global asset managers and bankers establishing local offices to capitalize on burgeoning opportunities. According to the report, the GCC-Southeast Asia axis is expected to continue driving growth across the sovereign wealth landscape.

PIF represented 7.11 percent of MENA’s sovereign wealth funds’ AuM, with assets totaling $925 billion. 

Leading the rankings is Abu Dhabi Investment Authority at $1.11 trillion, followed by Kuwait Investment Authority with $969 billion.

Global sovereign wealth fund investments totaled $136.1 billion across 358 transactions in 2024. The “Oil Five” — ADIA, ADQ, PIF, QIA, and Mubadala — maintained their dominance, together accounting for 60 percent of the total investment value, amounting to $82 billion. As a result, they secured positions among the top 19 dealmakers of the year.

This marks a significant rise from $74 billion in both 2023 and 2022, $41 billion in 2021, $39 billion in 2020, and $28 billion in 2019, reflecting the accelerating investment momentum of these sovereign wealth giants.

While some Gulf sovereign wealth funds leaned toward emerging markets, including their domestic economies, developed markets remained the dominant choice for most global sovereign investors.

Saudi Arabia’s PIF, Abu Dhabi’s ADQ, and Qatar’s QIA exhibited a preference for emerging markets, reflecting their strategic focus on regional and high-growth economies.

PIF investments

According to the report, a significant factor driving the PIF’s growth is its projected boost in domestic spending to $70 billion annually by 2025.

The fund’s investment strategy is focused on high-growth sectors, including infrastructure, digitalization, AI, and renewable energy.

Among the top 15 largest global investments by sovereign wealth funds in 2024 was PIF’s $3 billion acquisition of a 51 percent stake in Saudi Arabia’s TAWAL and $2.16 billion of a 40 percent stake in Selfridges in the UK.

Other significant investments for the PIF include a 15 percent stake in Heathrow Airport for $1.8 billion.

According to the institute, the largest deals are consistently pursued by a select group of funds known for their substantial firepower and risk appetite. This group includes the top 10 spenders, with the GCC’s “Big 5” leading the way.

Mubadala emerged as the leading sovereign investor in 2024, deploying $29.2 billion across 52 deals, a 67 percent increase from the previous year. It was followed by GIC at $26.6 billion, CPP with $21.1 billion, PIF at $19.9 billion, and ADIA at $17.1 billion.

PIF has also ventured into artificial intelligence and space, co-investing in Databricks and launching Neo Space Group to advance Saudi Arabia’s satellite industry.

These initiatives reflect the fund’s commitment to positioning Saudi Arabia as a leader in global digital and technological innovation.

PIF saw a 24 percent decline in its US equity portfolio, the report said. At the beginning of 2024, the fund sold shares in 18 companies worth nearly $13 billion, including pandemic-era investments like gaming giant Activision Blizzard, cruise leader Carnival, and entertainment company Live Nation, which yielded strong returns.

According to Lopez: “The sale of the listed equities was about monetizing a huge upside from their purchase during covid, rather than about decreasing the overseas portfolio.”

The expert noted the importance to recognize that while PIF’s domestic portfolio may be growing relative to its international holdings, the overall assets under management continue to expand, with significant investments being made outside the Kingdom.

PIF has also made significant investments in the electric vehicle sector, despite facing challenges with earlier ventures.

In 2019, PIF divested from Tesla but doubled down on Lucid Motors, placing a major bet on the EV manufacturer.

This strategic move has required substantial funding, including $2.8 billion in 2024 alone. Despite the financial commitment, PIF remains focused on its long-term vision for Saudi Arabia, supporting Lucid’s growth with a manufacturing facility in King Abdullah Economic City.

In January, Lucid Motors became the first global automotive company to join the Kingdom’s “Made in Saudi” program, reinforcing the country’s push to strengthen its industrial capabilities.

The program also supports Vision 2030’s goals of attracting investments, boosting non-oil exports, and creating sustainable jobs, while positioning Saudi Arabia as a hub for innovation and manufacturing in the EV sector.

PIF’s debt financing

On Jan. 6, PIF announced the completion of its inaugural $7 billion murabaha credit facility, supported by a syndicate of 20 international and regional financial institutions.

This Shariah-compliant financing structure is part of the fund’s medium-term capital raising strategy, aimed at diversifying its funding sources to support transformative investments both globally and within Saudi Arabia.

According to another report published by Global SWF in January, PIF’s use of debt financing mirrors a growing trend among sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds, which have raised around $700 billion over the past two decades.

Despite strong credit ratings from Moody’s and Fitch, PIF faces pressure from surging domestic investment in giga-projects like NEOM and Qiddiya, with annual funding needs expected to rise from $40 billion in 2023 to $70 billion by 2025.

Sustaining investor confidence will depend on its ability to manage financial obligations and execute Vision 2030 goals.

While markets currently support PIF’s sovereign-backed debt, delays or disruptions could strain resources and affect its ambitious agenda, making its financing strategy critical for both national economic transformation and global sovereign investment trends.

However, PIF’s diversified funding strategy, coupled with its ability to attract global partnerships, positions it as a transformative force capable of reshaping Saudi Arabia’s economic future and reinforcing its role as a leading driver of global investment innovation.


Oil Updates — crude set for 3rd straight weekly gain on winter fuel demand

Updated 10 January 2025
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Oil Updates — crude set for 3rd straight weekly gain on winter fuel demand

LONDON: Oil prices rose in early Asian trade and were on track for a third straight week of gains with icy conditions in parts of the US and Europe driving up fuel demand for heating.

Brent crude futures climbed 69 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $77.61 a barrel at 10:52 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 66 cents, also up 0.9 percent, to $74.58.

Over the three weeks ending Jan. 10, Brent has advanced 6 percent while WTI has jumped 7 percent.

Analysts at JPMorgan attributed the gains to growing concern over supply disruptions due to tightening sanctions, amid low oil stockpiles, freezing temperatures in many parts of the US and Europe and improving sentiment regarding China’s stimulus measures.

The US weather bureau expects central and eastern parts of the country to experience below-average temperatures. Many regions in Europe have also been hit by extreme cold and will likely continue to experience a colder-than-usual start to the year, which JPMorgan analysts expect to boost demand.

“We anticipate a significant year-over-year increase in global oil demand of 1.6 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2025, primarily boosted by ... demand for heating oil, kerosene, and LPG,” JPMorgan said in a note on Friday.

Meanwhile, the premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August this week, potentially indicating supply tightness at a time of rising demand.

Oil prices have rallied despite the US dollar strengthening for six straight weeks. A stronger dollar typically weighs on prices, as it makes purchases of crude expensive outside the US.

Supplies could be further hit as US President Joe Biden is expected to announce new sanctions targeting Russia’s economy this week in a bid to bolster Ukraine’s war effort against Moscow before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. A key target of sanctions so far has been Russia’s oil industry.

“Uncertainty over how hawkish Trump will be with Iran will be providing some support. Asian buyers have already been looking for alternative grades from the Middle East, with broader sanctions against Russia and Iran making this oil flow more difficult,” ING analysts said in a note on Friday.


SABIC, Almarai, SEC able to absorb fuel price hike: S&P Global

Updated 09 January 2025
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SABIC, Almarai, SEC able to absorb fuel price hike: S&P Global

RIYADH: Major Saudi companies, including chemical company SABIC, dairy firm Almarai, and Saudi Electric Co., are well-positioned to handle the impact of higher fuel and feedstock prices introduced on Jan. 1, according to a new report.

Released by capital market economy firm S&P Global, the analysis reveals that those corporates will be able to absorb the marginal increase in production costs by further improving operational efficiencies as well as potentially via pass-through mechanisms.

This came after Saudi Aramco increased diesel prices in the Kingdom to SR1.66 ($0.44) per liter, effective Jan. 1, marking a 44.3 percent rise compared to the start of 2024. The company has kept gasoline prices unchanged, with Gasoline 91 priced at SR2.18 per liter and Gasoline 93 at SR2.33 per liter.

Despite the hike, diesel prices in Saudi Arabia remain lower than those in many neighboring Arab countries. In the UAE and Qatar, a liter of diesel is priced at $0.73 and $0.56, respectively, while in Bahrain and Kuwait, it costs $0.42 and $0.39 per liter.

“For SABIC and Almarai, the increase in feedstock prices will not affect profitability significantly. In the case of utility company, SEC, additional support will likely come from the government if needed,” the report said.

The capital market economy firm projects that SABIC will continue to outperform global peers on profitability.

“We don’t expect the rise in feedstock and fuel prices to materially affect profitability, since the company estimates it will increase its cost of sales by only 0.2 percent,” the report said.

It further highlighted that SABIC is considered a government-related entity with a high possibility of receiving support when needed.

The report also underlines that Almarai anticipates an additional SR200 million in costs for 2025, driven by higher fuel prices and the indirect effects of increased expenses across other areas of its supply chain.

“We believe Almarai will continue focusing on business efficiency, cost optimization, and other initiatives to mitigate these impacts,” the release stressed.

With regards to SEC, S&P said that an unrestricted and uncapped balancing account provides a mechanism for government support, including related to the higher fuel costs.

“We believe any increased fuel cost will be covered by this balancing account,” the report said.

The study further highlights that the marginal increase “could significantly affect wider Saudi corporations’ profit margins and competitiveness.”

The S&P data also suggests that additional costs will be reflected in companies’ financials from the first quarter of 2025.

“Saudi Arabia is continuing its significant and rapid transformation under the country’s Vision 2030 program. We expect an acceleration of investments to diversify the Saudi economy away from its reliance on the upstream hydrocarbon sector,” the report said.

“The sheer scale of projects — estimated at more than $1 trillion in total — suggests large funding requirements. Higher feedstock and fuel prices would help reduce subsidy costs for the government, with those savings potentially redeployed to Vision 2030 projects,” it added.


Lenovo to produce ‘Saudi Made’ PCs by 2026 following $2bn Alat deal closure

Updated 09 January 2025
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Lenovo to produce ‘Saudi Made’ PCs by 2026 following $2bn Alat deal closure

RIYADH: Chinese tech giant Lenovo is set to manufacture millions of computer devices in Saudi Arabia by 2026, following the completion of a $2 billion investment deal with Alat, a subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund. 

First announced in May, the partnership has now received shareholder and regulatory approvals, paving the way for Lenovo to establish a regional headquarters and a manufacturing facility in the Kingdom. 

The deal marks a significant step in aligning Lenovo’s growth ambitions with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goals of economic diversification, innovation, and job creation, the company said in a press release. 

The factory will manufacture millions of PCs and servers every year using local research and development teams for fully end-to-end “Saudi Made” products and is expected to begin production by 2026, it added. 

“Through this powerful strategic collaboration and investment, Lenovo will have significant resources and financial flexibility to further accelerate our transformation and grow our business by capitalizing on the incredible growth momentum in KSA and the wider MEA region,” Yang said. 

He added: “We are excited to have Alat as our long-term strategic partner and are confident that our world-class supply chain, technology, and manufacturing capabilities will benefit KSA as it drives its Vision 2030 goals of economic diversification, industrial development, innovation, and job creation.” 

Amit Midha, CEO of Alat, underscored the significance of the partnership for both Lenovo and the Kingdom. 

“We are incredibly proud to become a strategic investor in Lenovo and partner with them on their continued journey as a leading global technology company,” said Midha. 

“With the establishment of a regional headquarters in Riyadh and a world-class manufacturing hub, powered by clean energy, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we expect the Lenovo team to further their potential across the MEA region,” he added. 

The partnership is expected to generate thousands of jobs, strengthen the region’s technological infrastructure, and attract further investment into the Middle East and Africa, according to the press release. 

In May, Lenovo raised $1.15 billion through the issuance of warrants to support its future growth plans. The initiative, which was fully subscribed by investors, signals confidence in Lenovo’s strategic approach and its plans for global expansion. 

The investment deal was advised by Citi and Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton for Lenovo, while Morgan Stanley and Latham & Watkins represented Alat. 


Lebanon’s bonds climb as parliament elects first president since 2022

Updated 09 January 2025
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Lebanon’s bonds climb as parliament elects first president since 2022

LONDON: Lebanon’s government bonds extended a three-month long rally on Thursday as its parliament voted in a new head of state for the crisis-ravaged country for the first time since 2022.

Lebanese lawmakers elected army chief Joseph Aoun as president. It came after the failure of 12 previous attempts to pick a president and the move boosts hopes that Lebanon might finally be able to start addressing its dire economic woes.

Lebanon’s battered bonds have almost trebled in value since September when the regional conflict with Israel weakened Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, long viewed as an obstacle to overcoming the country’s political paralysis.

Most of Lebanon’s international bonds, which have been in default since 2020, rallied after Aoun’s victory was announced to stand between 0.8 and 0.9 cents higher on the day and at nearly 16 cents on the dollar.

They have also risen almost every day since late December, although they remain some of the lowest priced government bonds in the world, reflecting the scale of Lebanon’s difficulties.

With its economy still reeling from a devastating financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon is in dire need of international support to rebuild from the war, which the World Bank estimates to have cost the country $8.5 billion.