RIYADH: Kuwait and Egypt’s non-oil private sectors maintained growth in February as business activity increased in both countries, according to S&P Global. 

In its latest report, the financial services firm revealed that Kuwait’s Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 51.6 in February, down from 53.4 in the previous month.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in private business conditions, while a reading below 50 signifies contraction. 

The steady momentum of non-oil business activity across Middle Eastern economies highlights progress in economic diversification efforts. In February, Saudi Arabia recorded a PMI of 58.4, slightly down from a decade-high 60.5 in January. 

“Although we continued to see a generally positive performance of the non-oil private sector in Kuwait during February, there were some elements of the latest PMI survey which sound a note of caution,” said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

He added: “Primary among these was the fact that firms lowered their staffing levels, perhaps a sign of worries that the slowdown in new order growth has further to run.” 

Despite this, overall business conditions in Kuwait’s non-oil private sector continued to improve, driven by rising output and new orders. Respondents in the survey attributed this growth to marketing campaigns across multiple channels as well as price cuts.

“Alongside successful advertising, growth was again predicated on the offer of discounts to customers, and it remains to be seen how sustainable this will be for firms in the face of sharply rising input costs,” added Harker. 

Apart from job cuts in February, which could lead to backlogs of work, companies also reduced purchasing activity. 

Looking ahead, non-oil private sector firms in Kuwait said price discounting, marketing, new product development, and strong customer service could support output growth over the coming year. 

Egypt’s PMI stays above neutral 

In a separate report, S&P Global revealed that Egypt’s PMI stood at 50.1 in February, down from 50.7 in January. 

This marked the first time since late 2020 that the country’s rating remained above the 50 neutral threshold for two consecutive months, signaling a sustained improvement in business conditions. 

Companies participating in the survey indicated that an ongoing recovery in client demand led to the first back-to-back improvement in business conditions in over four years. 

The increase in order book volumes resulted in a solid rise in purchasing activity, though output remained stable and employment declined. 

David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the Egypt figure showed the country’s non-oil economy started 2025 in “better health.”

He added: “Coupled with January’s upturn, the data reflects the best opening two months of the year in the survey’s history.”  

In January, the International Monetary Fund reached an agreement with Egyptian authorities allowing the country to access about $1.2 billion to strengthen its finances. 

According to S&P Global, Egypt’s non-oil private sector growth in February was further supported by another month of subdued price pressures, with inflation of average cost burdens rising from January but remaining historically mild. 

New work volumes increased for the second consecutive month after having risen only once in the previous 40 months of data collection. 

In February, stronger demand prompted firms to boost purchases for the third straight month, marking the sharpest increase in three and a half years. 

“Stronger customer spending seems to have revitalized markets, driving higher sales volumes and supporting improved operating conditions. This positive momentum has led to increased spending among firms,” said Owen. 

He added: “Additionally, price pressures are relatively low compared to those experienced in 2024, indicating that inflation is likely to continue its downward trend, in the near-term at least.” 

Despite the positive developments, businesses that participated in the survey reported challenges in retaining staff and hiring new workers, leading to a third employment decline in four months. 

Selling prices also increased modestly in February, as companies sought to limit the impact of higher costs on customers. 

Regarding future expectations, firms remained cautious about the economic outlook. Business confidence for the next 12 months fell to its lowest level since November, with only 5 percent of firms expressing optimism about future output growth. 

“The employment market remains mixed at best, and the manufacturing sector is struggling to secure new orders. Economic and geopolitical risks continue to loom large, contributing to another month of subdued expectations for the year ahead,” concluded Owen.

BEIJING/SINGAPORE: Oil prices extended losses on Tuesday following reports that OPEC+ will proceed with a planned output increase in April, while markets braced for the impact of US tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, as well as Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on the US.

Brent futures fell 57 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $71.05 a barrel at 9:50 a.m. Saudi time, as US West Texas Intermediate crude eased 39 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $67.98.

“The current downward trend in oil prices is primarily driven by OPEC+’s decision to increase output and the introduction of US tariffs,” said Darren Lim, commodities strategist at Phillip Nova.

A further complicating factor was geopolitical developments related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he added.

President Donald Trump paused all US military aid to Ukraine following his Oval Office clash with President Volodymyr Zelensky last week.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, decided to proceed with a planned April oil output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, the group’s first since 2022.

“While this decision aims to gradually unwind previous output cuts, it has raised concerns about a potential oversupply in the market,” Lim said.

Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico took effect at 8:01 a.m. Saudi time on Tuesday, with 10 percent tariffs for Canadian energy, while imports on Chinese goods will increase to 20 percent from 10 percent.

Analysts expect the tariffs to weigh on economic activity and fuel demand, putting downward pressure on oil prices.

“Market participants are struggling to gauge the impact of the flood of energy-related policy announcements made by the Trump administration this month,” BMI analysts wrote in a note.

“However, those weighing to the downside, notably US tariff measures, are currently winning out.”

As the US tariffs kicked in on Tuesday, China swiftly retaliated, announcing 10 percent to 15 percent hikes to import levies covering a range of American agricultural and food products, and placing 25 US firms under export and investment restrictions.

Further weighing on oil was Trump’s halt of military aid to Ukraine, as the market has viewed the growing distance between the White House and Ukraine as a sign of a potential easing of the conflict.

That in turn could lead to sanctions relief for Russia, with more oil supply returning to the market.

The pause followed a Reuters report that the White House has asked the State and Treasury departments to draft a list of sanctions that could be eased for US officials to discuss during talks with Moscow, sources have said.

“The perfect storm for crude oil has intensified. Reports that the US has paused military aid to Ukraine is viewed as a precursor to lifting sanctions on Russian oil,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.

“It also comes at the same time as US tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China come into effect, sparking fears of a trade war. Crude oil just cannot take a break at the moment.”

However, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on Monday that Russia’s oil flows are constrained more by its OPEC+ production target than sanctions, warning that an easing might not boost them significantly.

The bank also said higher-than-expected crude supply and a demand hit due to softer US activity and tariff escalation posed downside risks to oil price forecasts.