Focus: Negative interest rates

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Updated 13 May 2020
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Focus: Negative interest rates

What happened:

Comments by the White House Coronavirus Taskforce’s Dr. Anthony Fauci and veteran investor as well as Duquesne Capital chairman Stanley Druckenmiller sent equity markets down.

Fauci informed the US Senate’s health committee of big risks if states reopened their economies without observing guidance on the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. He said that opening up the economy too soon could “trigger an outbreak that you might not be able to control,” resulting in loss of life and economic contraction.

Druckenmiller told The Economic Club of New York that the risk-reward ratio in equities was the worst he had ever seen and called a V-shaped recovery “a fantasy.” He expressed fears that the pandemic would have a long-lasting effect on the economy, leading to bankruptcies.

He regards the massive government stimulus as merely a transfer of money to individuals as well as leading to maintaining zombie companies and has predicted more regulation and higher taxes going forward.

The UK economy entered recession, contracting by 5.8 percent in March. Retail sales were down 20 percent for the same month. The first quarter (Q1) of the year only reflects two weeks of lockdown, which means there is worse to come in Q2. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak extended the furlough program by four months, costing an extra £34 billion ($41.9 billion).

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) doubled its quantitative easing program to NZ$60 billion ($36.3 billion), contemplating lowering interest rates further, including into negative territory.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a $265 billion stimulus package, equal to 10 percent of GDP. Benchmark yields fell by 20 basis points to 6.16 percent in the last two sessions.

Earnings season continued in Europe:

Dutch business bank ABN Amro posted a Q1 loss of minus 395 million euros (minus $429 million), the first in seven years. Loan loss provisions and impairment for Q1 were 1.1 billion euros and could go up to 2.5 billion euros for the full year.

German universal bank Commerzbank posted a loss of 277 million euros, which included a markdown worth 479 million euros in assets due to the pandemic. Full-year loan loss provisions went up to 1.4 billion euros, rendering a profit for 2020 challenging.

Revenue at Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S increased to $9.57 billion, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) at $1.52 billion. The company warned that the COVID-19 pandemic could drive sea freight volumes down by as much a quarter.

CEO Soren Skou said that given its 20 percent market share in the container trade, Maersk would only be contemplating mergers and acquisitions activity landside, for example, in logistics and container ports.

Background:

With the RBNZ contemplating negative rates, the conversation moved again to the potential of US rates turning negative by 2021. Speculation was fueled by a tweet from American President Donald Trump calling negative rates a “GIFT.”

The question remains how the US Federal Reserve looks at rates. Trump sees the rate conundrum in parts through the lens of their impact on the dollar, with a cheaper dollar being beneficial to exports. The experience of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc would suggest that negative rates did not affect their safe haven status in the long run.

While the last two months have seen a significant dollar appreciation, the trend could have reached its end.

The risk-reward picture for negative interest rates looks different from country to country. In the US, the impact on money markets has to be considered, which is of lesser importance in other jurisdictions.

Furthermore, negative interest rates have not had the desired effect of stimulating the economy and reaching target inflation rates in either Japan or the eurozone. Rather, they had a negative impact on the business models of banks, reducing their efficiency as transmission mechanisms.

The bond market effortlessly absorbed the arrival of a record-sized $32 billion 10-year treasury note auction on Tuesday. Demand was solid among investors at a record-low yield of 0.7 percent for the new 10-year note.

The global importance of US treasuries beyond that asset class cannot be overstated. Government bond yields in major economies reflect the return expectations by investors without taking risk. This holds particularly true for US treasuries, which are by far the most liquid and issued by the government of the world’s largest economy, hence building a foundation for the relative pricing of all asset classes.

Where we go from here:

The US Congress will be discussing a $3 trillion rescue package, where democrats have earmarked $1 trillion for cities and states, with the some of the remainder going toward “hazard pay” for essential workers and a new round of cash payments to individuals.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is more interested in legislation protecting businesses from liability for returning employees if they fall ill or die.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Peterson Institute later on Wednesday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel will address the European Parliament in the afternoon.

 

— Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources.
Twitter: @MeyerResources


Peshawar Zalmi smash PSL record with 120-run win over Multan Sultans

Updated 12 sec ago
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Peshawar Zalmi smash PSL record with 120-run win over Multan Sultans

  • Pacer Ali Raza returns figures of 4/21 while Tom Kohler-Cadmore scores blistering half-century 
  • Player of the Match Abdul Samad smashes 40 runs from 14 balls, hitting three sixes and four fours

ISLAMABAS: Peshawar Zalmi got off the mark in the Pakistan Super League (PSL) 2025 tournament on Saturday by defeating former champions Multan Sultans by 120 runs at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium, registering the highest margin of victory in the PSL’s history. 

After Zalmi openers Saim Ayub and Babar Azam fell for low scores earlier on, Tom Kohler-Cadmore (52 runs from 30 balls) Mohammad Haris (45 runs from 21 balls) and Abdul Samad (40 runs from 14 balls) helped the “Yellow Storm” finish at an impressive score of 227-7 off their 20 overs. 

In response, the Sultans were no match for Zalmi’s potent bowling. Skipper Mohammad Rizwan’s side was bowled out for 107 runs in 15.5 overs courtesy of a stellar bowling performance by new pace sensation Ali Raza, who returned figures of 4/21 from his four overs, and spinner Ariq Yaqoob, who finished with 3/20. 

“A blazing batting performance that saw Zalmi muster 227-7 in 20 overs was followed by young pace sensation Ali Raza’s masterclass as they registered the highest margin of victory in HBL PSL history,” the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) said on its website.

Speaking at the post-match press conference, Player of the Match Samad said Zalmi expected him to perform well as he had been playing domestic cricket for some time. 

“Stuck to my natural game,” he said, “We had to score 200-plus runs. There was grip, and the pitch was on the slow side but glad the execution went well.”

After registering their first win in three matches, Zalmi have moved up to number five on the PSL points table while the Sultans remain at the bottom with three losses from as many matches. 

Islamabad United remain at the top of the table with three wins from three matches, while Lahore Qalandars secure the number two spot with two wins out of three matches.


Superheroes take to the stage at Middle East Film & Comic Con

Updated 14 min 53 sec ago
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Superheroes take to the stage at Middle East Film & Comic Con

DUBAI: Abu Dhabi’s Middle East Film & Comic Con turned into a multiverse crossover event as Andrew Garfield, Charlie Cox, Grant Gustin, and Wilson Bethel took the stage for a packed superhero panel.

The four actors — known for portraying Spider-Man, Daredevil, The Flash, and Bullseye respectively — reflected on their iconic roles and what it means to bring beloved comic-book characters to life.

Garfield discussed meeting fans at conventions. “It’s always a bit nerve-wracking when you’re coming to see fans. And every time I get very shy, and then as soon as I am faced with, you know, a group of people who just love so deeply what they love, and the fact that we’re all involved in things that you guys love so much, it’s such a beautiful relationship that we get to have with all of you,” he said. “I just feel so lucky. I think we all feel so lucky to get to be a part of your lives in such an intimate and emotionally joyful way.”

Bethel has returned to her role as Bullseye in the Disney+ show “Daredevil: Born Again,” in which Cox plays the titular hero. “Charlie and I just fell back into our dancing positions. I lead and he follows. Coming out of that long period of not doing the show, to returning to it in such a dramatic, physical way, was very cool,” she said, referencing their bloody fight in episode one of the new series.

Gustin, who played Barry Allen/The Flash on the hit CW show “The Flash” from 2014 to 2023, said: “The coolest part of playing a character like this is that, no matter what else you do, you’ll carry it always, because you will forever be a part of that character’s legacy.

“I was 23 when the show started filming,” he added. “And I didn’t know how stressful that would be at times. I had to learn how to handle that stress as I grew up on the show. And I think by the time it was over, I was enjoying it more than ever.”


PM Sharif urges global investors to tap into Pakistan’s minerals sector

Updated 46 min 41 sec ago
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PM Sharif urges global investors to tap into Pakistan’s minerals sector

  • Pakistan organizes three-day Health, Engineering and Minerals Show in Lahore with foreign delegates in attendance
  • Exhibition featured a range of high-tech stalls showcasing agricultural machinery, precious stones and pharmaceuticals

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif this week invited global investors and friendly countries to tap into the country’s mining sector and take advantage of its economic opportunities, state-run media reported. 

Pakistan is home to one of the world’s largest porphyry copper-gold mineral zones, while the Reko Diq mine in southwestern Balochistan province has an estimated 5.9 billion tons of ore. Barrick Gold, which owns a 50 percent stake in the Reko Diq mines, considers them one of the world’s largest underdeveloped copper-gold areas, and their development is expected to have a significant impact on Pakistan’s struggling economy.

In recent months, Pakistan has aggressively tried to tap into its huge reserves of natural resources to extract maximum economic advantage from them. Islamabad hosted a two-day minerals summit this month in which hundreds of delegates from around the world visited Pakistan to explore opportunities in its mining and minerals sector.  

“Pakistan is rich in talent, especially in IT and AI sectors,” Sharif said on Saturday while speaking at the three-day Health Engineering and Minerals Show [HEMS] in Lahore. 

“We are extending investment opportunities to friendly nations and inviting them to initiate joint ventures, particularly in the mining and minerals sector,” he added. 

The Pakistani prime minister stressed that over 60 percent of Pakistan’s population comprises the youth, describing them as intelligent and capable.

He called for equipping them with modern skills and professional training. 

“Our young generation is our asset, and with the right direction and innovation, they can drive Pakistan’s economic success,” he added. 

Sharif credited his government for increasing Pakistan’s exports, saying that its consistent policies had caused the country to boost production and rely less on imports. 

The exhibition featured a range of high-tech stalls showcasing agricultural machinery, precious stones, pharmaceuticals and surgical instruments, the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) said. 

Dignitaries and delegates from China, Africa, the Middle East, Europe, the United States, Turkiye and other countries participated, with a total of 860 foreign delegates in attendance.

On this occasion, several bilateral agreements and memoranda of understanding were signed, the APP said. 


Iran and US conclude second round of negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program in Rome

Updated 20 April 2025
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Iran and US conclude second round of negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program in Rome

  • President Donald Trump has been pushing for rapid deal with Iran while threatening military action against it
  • Talks even happening represents a historic moment, given the decades of enmity between the two countries

ROME: Iran and the United States will begin having experts meet to discuss details of a possible deal over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program, the top Iranian diplomat said Saturday after a second round of negotiations in Rome.
The comments by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who met with US Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff for several hours, suggest movement in the talks. The experts will meet in Oman before Araghchi and Witkoff meet again in Oman on April 26, Araghchi said.
There was no immediate readout from the US side after the meeting at the Omani Embassy in Rome’s Camilluccia neighborhood. However, President Donald Trump has been pushing for a rapid deal with Iran while threatening military action against it.
“The talks were held in a constructive environment and I can say that is moving forward,” Araghchi told Iranian state television. “I hope that we will be in a better position after the technical talks.”
He added: “This time, we succeeded to reach a better understanding about a sort of principles and aims.”
Iranian officials described the talks as indirect, like those last weekend in Muscat, Oman, with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi shuttling between them in different rooms.
That talks are even happening represents a historic moment, given the decades of enmity between the two countries since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the US Embassy hostage crisis. Trump, in his first term, unilaterally withdrew from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers in 2018, setting off years of attacks and negotiations that failed to restore the accord that drastically limited Tehran’s enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
Talks come as tensions rise in the Mideast
At risk is a possible American or Israeli military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, or the Iranians following through on their threats to pursue an atomic weapon. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have spiked over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip and after US airstrikes targeting Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels killed more than 70 people and wounded dozens more.
“I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon,” Trump said Friday. “I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Araghchi met Saturday morning with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani ahead of the talks with Witkoff.
Rafael Mariano Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, also met Tajani on Saturday. Grossi’s agency would likely be key in verifying compliance by Iran should a deal be reached, as it did with the 2015 accord Iran reached with world powers.
Tajani said Italy was ready “to facilitate the continuation of the talks even for sessions at the technical level.”
A diplomat deal “is built patiently, day after day, with dialogue and mutual respect,” he said in a statement.
Araghchi, Witkoff both traveled ahead of talks
Both men have been traveling in recent days. Witkoff had been in Paris for talks about Ukraine as Russia’s full-scale war there grinds on. Araghchi paid a visit to Moscow, where he met with officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia, one of the world powers involved in Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal, could be a key participant in any future deal reached between Tehran and Washington. Analysts suggest Moscow could potentially take custody of Iran’s uranium enriched to 60 percent purity — a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 percent.
Oman’s capital, Muscat, hosted the first round of negotiations between Araghchi and Witkoff last weekend, which saw the two men meet face to face after indirect talks. Oman, a sultanate on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, has long served as an interlocutor between Iran and the West.
Ahead of the talks, however, Iran seized on comments by Witkoff first suggesting Iran could enrich uranium at 3.67 percent, then later saying that all enrichment must stop. Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wrote on X before the talks that Iran would not accept giving up its enrichment program like Libya, or agreeing to using uranium enriched abroad for its nuclear program.
“Iran has come for a balanced agreement, not a surrender,” he wrote.
Iran seeks a deal to steady a troubled economy
Iran’s internal politics are still inflamed over the mandatory hijab, or headscarf, with women still ignoring the law on the streets of Tehran. Rumors also persist over the government potentially increasing the cost of subsidized gasoline in the country, which has sparked nationwide protests in the past
Iran’s rial currency plunged to over 1 million to a US dollar earlier this month. The currency has improved with the talks, however, something Tehran hopes will continue.
Meanwhile, two used Airbus A330-200 long sought by Iran’s flag carrier, Iran Air, arrived at Tehran’s Mehrabad International Airport on Thursday, flight-tracking data analyzed by The Associated Press showed. The planes, formerly of China’s Hainan Airlines, had been in Muscat and re-registered to Iran.
The aircraft have Rolls-Royce engines, which include significant American parts and servicing. Such a transaction would need approval from the US Treasury given sanctions on Iran. The State Department and Treasury did not respond to requests for comment.
Under the 2015 deal, Iran could purchase new aircraft and had lined up tens of billions of dollars in deals with Airbus and Boeing Co. However, the manufacturers backed away from the deals over Trump’s threats to the nuclear accord.


Putin attends Orthodox Easter service after declaring ceasefire in Ukraine

Updated 20 April 2025
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Putin attends Orthodox Easter service after declaring ceasefire in Ukraine

  • The traditionally sung service starts late on a Saturday and lasts into the early hours of Sunday

President Vladimir Putin and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin joined other worshippers for an Easter service led by the head of Russia’s Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, a faithful backer of the Russian leader and an advocate for the war in Ukraine.
Hours after declaring a unilateral Easter ceasefire that Kyiv said was just words as fighting continued, Putin and Sobyanin stood in Moscow’s main church, the Cathedral of Christ the Savior, while Kirill led a procession, video of the service showed.
Holding a lit thin red candle and donning a dark suit, white shirt and a red tie as in years past, the Russian leader crossed himself several times when Kirill announced “Christ is risen.”
The traditionally sung service starts late on a Saturday and lasts into the early hours of Sunday.
For Putin, the Orthodox faith is central to his world view and he always attends services during major church holidays. For Orthodox Russians, Easter is the most important religious holiday.
At the service, Krill called for “lasting and just peace can be established in the vast expanses of historical Rus,” RIA state news agency reported, in what was a reference to a medieval territory that encompassed parts of what is now Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. “How wonderfully it was said, do not do evil to another and do not treat others as you would not want them to treat you,” TASS agency cited Kirill as saying.
“If people adhered to this holiday commandment, then life would be completely different: family and social life and — let me say this — inter-governmental.”
Kirill has strongly backed the war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year. Thousands have been killed, the vast majority of them Ukrainians, and millions driven from their homes since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.