Gold rush at Turkish bazaar a test of trust for lowly lira

Gold vendors at bazaars (above) have found ready buyers for things like antique Turkish coins (inset). (Shutterstock)
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Updated 15 August 2020
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Gold rush at Turkish bazaar a test of trust for lowly lira

  • As precious metal prices soar, Turks rush to buy amid economic uncertainty and a volatile currency

ISTANBUL: Hasan Ayhan followed his wife’s instructions last week and took their savings to buy gold at Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar as Turks scooped up bullion worth $7 billion in a just a fortnight.

With memories of a currency crisis which rocked Turkey’s economy only two years ago fresh in his mind, the retired police officer was among those playing it safe as he queued in the city’s sprawling market, where a screen showed the gold price rise by one Turkish lira ($0.1366) in just 10 minutes.

“I think it is the best investment right now so I converted my dollars to buy gold,” the 57-year-old said. “I might withdraw my lira and buy gold with it too, but I am scared to go to the bank right now because of coronavirus.”

The day after Ayhan bought his gold on Aug. 6, the lira hit a historic low and remains skittish, laying bare concerns that Turkey’s reserves have been badly depleted by market interventions, which are showing signs of fizzling out.

Turks traditionally use gold for savings and there may be 5,000 tons of it “under mattresses,” with more added after the recent buying spree, Mehmet Ali Yildirimturk, deputy head of an Istanbul gold shops association, said.

Although bullion has never been more expensive, vendors at the Grand Bazaar said almost no one was selling their gold jewelry. There are only buyers.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Currency touched record lows in three volatile weeks.
  • Local holdings of hard currencies at all-time high.
  • All are buyers at Grand Bazaar, despite expensive gold.

“I’ve been chatting with hundreds of people who are thinking about selling their cars or houses to invest in gold,” vendor Gunay Gunes said.

In the last three weeks, as selling gripped the lira, local holdings of hard assets such as dollars and gold jumped $15 billion to a record of nearly $220 billion.

There is no evidence suggesting people are about to pull savings from banks, and this week the lira has hovered around 7.3 versus the dollar, although it remains among the worst emerging-market performers this year.

Demand has eased since Turks withdrew some $2 billion in hard foreign cash from their banks during a March-May period in which a lockdown was imposed and the lira hit its last low. Analysts say that if Ankara cannot boost confidence in the currency, which has fallen almost 20 percent this year, import-heavy Turkey risks inflation and even a balance of payments crisis that will worsen fallout from the coronavirus crisis.

Given foreign investors now have only a small stake in Turkish assets, they say the key for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government is convincing Turks to stop turning to the perceived stability of dollars and gold.

The central bank and treasury did not immediately comment on the dollarization trend or any policy response.

Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, Erdogan’s son-in-law, said on Wednesday the lira’s competitiveness was more important than exchange rate volatility.

The central bank has effectively borrowed on local dollar liquidity to fuel foreign exchange market interventions, which are meant to stabilize the lira.

Through Turkish state banks, which together are “short” foreign exchange by $12 billion, the central bank has sold over $110 billion since last year. In turn, the bank’s gross FX buffer has fallen by nearly half this year to below $47 billion, its lowest in years.

The central bank has said its reserves naturally fluctuate in stressful periods, and the treasury says the bank intervenes at times to stabilize the currency.

But ratings agencies say Ankara should take decisive steps, such as an interest rate hike, to rebuild reserves and restore confidence. Otherwise, rising current account deficits and possible debt defaults could tarnish a solid reputation for meeting foreign obligations.

“Locals don’t want to keep Turkish lira, they’ve been dollarizing and buying gold. Turks have hardly ever done that,” said Shamaila Khan, New York-based head of EM debt strategy at AllianceBernstein, which manages $600 billion. “That is why you need proactive policies because if you get to that stage where locals are unwilling to keep their money in the bank then you’re heading to a balance of payments crisis. That’s when the alarm bells will start ringing.” 

Some banks imposed fees on withdrawals this week, while the central bank has curbed cheap credit channels it opened to ease the coronavirus fallout. Yet while lira deposits now earn more than the 8.25 percent policy rate, their real return is negative with inflation at 11.8 percent.

Traders say such backdoor tightening needs to reach 11.25 percent to stabilize the lira, which has nearly halved in value since early 2018.

Market expectations have risen for a formal rate hike that economists say would reinforce central bank independence, even while it could slow economic recovery.

Politics may stand in the way.Erdogan, whose popularity has dipped this year, holds the view that high rates cause inflation, and sacked the last central bank governor for disobedience.

He said on Monday he hoped market rates would fall further.

But firms such as System Denim, which imports materials and makes clothes for companies like Zara and Diesel, are feeling the pinch from rising costs. Owner Seref Fayat said he converted his 4 percent euro-denominated loans to lira at 10 percent. “No need to take on additional FX risk,” he said. “I pay a higher rate, but at least I can see ahead.”


Qatar commits to investing $10bn in India

Updated 6 sec ago
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Qatar commits to investing $10bn in India

NEW DELHI: Qatar has committed to investing $10 billion in India across various sectors, the two nations said in a joint statement on Tuesday, after Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani visited New Delhi.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he had a “very productive meeting” with Qatar’s Emir, who was on a two-day visit to New Delhi.

“Trade featured prominently in our talks. We want to increase and diversify India-Qatar trade linkages,” Modi said in a post on X. It was the first such visit by a Qatari Emir to the South Asian nation in 10 years.

According to the statement, Qatar will invest $10 billion in India in infrastructure, technology, manufacturing, food security, logistics, hospitality and other sectors.

The two countries will aim to double their annual trade to $28 billion in the next five years and are exploring the signing of a free trade agreement, the Indian foreign ministry said earlier in the day.

Bilateral trade between the two nations stood at $18.77 billion in the fiscal year that ended in March 2023, mainly comprising liquefied natural gas imports from Qatar.

Qatar accounted for more than 48 percent of India’s LNG imports that year.

The two sides said they would work to enhance bilateral energy cooperation, including mutual investments in energy infrastructure, as well as look at settlement of bilateral trade in their respective currencies. 


Oil Updates — crude gains on US, Russia supply worries; market seeks Ukraine talks clarity

Updated 39 min 29 sec ago
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Oil Updates — crude gains on US, Russia supply worries; market seeks Ukraine talks clarity

HOUSTON/SINGAPORE: Oil prices edged up on Wednesday amid worries of oil supply disruptions in the US and Russia, and as markets awaited clarity on the Ukraine peace talks.

Brent crude futures were up 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $75.98 a barrel at 7:50 a.m. Saudi time, and possibly set for a third day of gains.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for March rose 16 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $72.01, up 1.8 percent from the close on Friday after not settling on Monday because of the Presidents’ Day public holiday. The March contract expires on Thursday and the more active April contract gained 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $71.97.

“The psychologically important $70 level appears to have held firm, aided by the Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian oil pumping station and fears that cold weather in the US may curtail supply,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.

“On top of that there is some speculation that OPEC+ may decide to delay its planned supply increase in April,” he said, referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies.

Russia said oil flows through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, a major route for crude exports from Kazakhstan, were reduced by 30 percent to 40 percent on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station. A 30 percent cut would equate to the loss of 380,000 barrels per day of supply to the market, according to Reuters calculations.

Meanwhile, cold weather threatened US oil supply, with the North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimating that production in the country’s No. 3 producing state would be down by as much as 150,000 bpd.

US President Donald Trump’s administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine. A deal could ease or help remove sanctions that have disrupted the flows of Russian oil shipments.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal and associated easing in sanctions on Russia is unlikely to significantly raise Russia oil flows.

“We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9 million barrels per day production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports,” they said in a report.

Israel and Hamas will also begin indirect negotiations on a second stage of the Gaza ceasefire deal, officials said on Tuesday.

However, Trump said on Tuesday he intends to impose auto tariffs “in the neighborhood of 25 percent” and similar duties on semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports.

Tariffs could raise prices for consumer products, weaken the economy and reduce demand for fuel. 


Saudi Arabia raises $818m in February sukuk sale 

Updated 43 min 15 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia raises $818m in February sukuk sale 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia raised SR3.07 billion ($818 million) through its February sukuk issuance as the Kingdom continues to tap debt markets to support economic diversification efforts. 

The latest riyal-denominated offering, managed by the National Debt Management Center, follows a SR3.72 billion issuance in January. The Kingdom raised SR11.59 billion in December and SR3.41 billion in November, according to official data. 

Sukuk, a Shariah-compliant financing instrument, allows investors to hold partial ownership in an issuer’s assets while adhering to Islamic finance principles. Saudi Arabia has been a key player in the global sukuk market, leveraging debt sales to finance projects under its Vision 2030 economic transformation plan. 

According to the NDMC, the February issuance was split into four tranches. The first, valued at SR585 million, matures in 2029, while the second, at SR1.70 billion, is set to mature in 2032. The third tranche, worth SR404 million, is due in 2036, and the final portion, totaling SR376 million, will expire in 2039. 

Saudi Arabia is expected to play a leading role in driving global debt and sukuk issuance over the next two years, Fitch Ratings said earlier this month. The Kingdom’s financial institutions and corporations are increasingly turning to international debt markets to diversify their funding sources, the agency noted. 

A separate report by Fitch projected Saudi Arabia’s debt capital market to reach $500 billion by the end of 2025, supported by a growing pipeline of infrastructure and development projects. 

The Kingdom is also set to lead bond and sukuk maturities in the Gulf region, with redemptions expected to total $168 billion between 2025 and 2029, according to a December report by Kamco Invest. Government-issued debt will account for the largest share, with maturities projected to reach $110.2 billion during the period. 

Across the Gulf Cooperation Council, the debt capital market surpassed the $1 trillion mark in outstanding issuances by the end of November, Fitch said in a separate report. 

Meanwhile, global sukuk issuance is forecast to range between $190 billion and $200 billion in 2025, driven by activity in key markets such as Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, according to S&P Global. The credit rating agency reported that global sukuk sales totaled $193.4 billion in 2024, slightly down from $197.8 billion in 2023.


Experts highlight importance of data in capital markets at Saudi forum

Updated 18 February 2025
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Experts highlight importance of data in capital markets at Saudi forum

  • Industry specialists said that real-time data availability is equally crucial for other participants

RIYADH: Accessing and interpreting data effectively is crucial for investors’ success in capital markets, as it enables them to make informed and timely decisions, according to experts. 

During a panel discussion at the Capital Markets Forum in Riyadh on Feb. 18, industry specialists said that real-time data availability is equally crucial for other participants, such as brokers, asset managers, and external institutions.

“What I believe is that data is the new alpha. So, those who master it will not only participate or win in the market, but they will define the market,” said Mehdi Miri, CEO of DirectFN. 

He added: “For investors, data is really about making smart and fast decisions. What investors need to see today is real-time AI-powered data that will help them look into insights and foresight so that they can see market opportunities before the market moves.” 

Miri further said that brokers and banks are using advanced analytics to build their trading and hedging strategies, ultimately improving their execution process. 

Yazeed Al-Domaiji, CEO of Wamid, a subsidiary of Saudi Tadawul Group, highlighted the importance of accessing data while maintaining rules and regulations. 

“Capital markets are driven by data. Data is there from more than 100 years ago. Everybody in capital markets is looking for data, using data to make decisions. As a capital market institution, it is necessary to find the balance of how we can innovate while maintaining the regulations,” said Al-Domaiji. 

He added that Wamid is aiming to play a major role in enabling the capital market industry in the Kingdom as it has announced a recent partnership with Google, with Saudi Arabia having strategic plans to adopt data and artificial intelligence in the sector.

Al-Domaiji said that Wamid is encouraging innovation in the capital market by focusing on two pillars, including data solutions and infrastructure technology. 

“In data solutions, we announced our partnership to launch our project for the data terminal. What we are planning to do is to offer a set of data that suits the demand of the market. We are focussing on satisfying the issuers, the capital market institutions, and the investors through a series of data with easier accessibility and good quality,” said Al-Domaiji. 

He added: “On the infrastructure side, we are helping the capital market to increase the access of institutional investors, especially for the HFTs (high-frequency trading). So, today, in Saudi Arabia, HFT trading is around 25 percent of the daily average trading.” 

Miri further said that data has become a strategic asset over time, and it is not just a global trend but a local and regional reality. 

“Data is a strategic asset. When we talk about monetization, data is a business in itself. This is a Spotify moment for data, where we are bringing and converging raw data into an on-demand revenue-generating machine,” added Miri. 

He said the capital market currently demands data that are not just numbers but enriched pieces of information, which should give foresight on what to do next. 

Miri also underscored the vitality of personalizing the data and integrating them into one single platform for better efficiency and quick decision-making. 

Regarding the future outlook of the importance of data in capital markets, Miri said: “Further down the road, if you have the data and if you have the liquidity, this could be the new asset class. A few decades ago, no one was thinking about carbon trading. In the future, we will be talking about data trading. Obviously, we have to balance it with data protection and regulation.” 

Underscoring the importance of datasets, Al-Domaiji added that data will become the “new currency for the capital market” in the future. 

Doug Peterson, special adviser and member of the board of directors at S&P Global, stressed the importance of data privacy and said: “The first question you have to ask from a governance standpoint is how I am going to protect my data. Do you want your data to be the one that is used in a model that is being built? Once it is there, that model is going to be using your data forever, and you are going to get paid for it.” 

He added: “I am really encouraged by what is happening in the Saudi market. We are very pleased at S&P Global to start building the local presence, because we think this is one of the most important markets in the future.” 

Katharine Furber, global head of emerging markets trading product at Bloomberg LP, said that fixed income space is seeing huge potential in the usage of data. 

“In the fixed income space, of course, it is the sell side indication, which indicates the desire to buy or sell a bond. But also trading data, and by trading data, I do not just mean what did they trade at what price. They want to build a rich story around the trade to learn as much as possible, which includes how many counterparties they asked on the trade; whether or not those counterparties responded to the trade request,” said Furber. 


ADNOC Drilling eyes $1bn in investments, Gulf expansion plans

Updated 41 min 13 sec ago
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ADNOC Drilling eyes $1bn in investments, Gulf expansion plans

RIYADH: UAE’s ADNOC Drilling is projecting significant growth, expecting over $1 billion in investments for 2025. The company also has plans to expand its operations into Oman and Kuwait, an official revealed.

In an interview with Arab News at the Capital Markets Forum, Youssef Salem, the company’s chief financial officer, discussed the expansion strategy, emphasizing the confidence ADNOC Drilling has in the long-term, robust plans of operating companies in these countries.

“For example, Kuwait Oil Co. is going to 4 million barrels of production capacity of oil per day, also launching for the first time their offshore operations. Similarly with Oman, a lot of tenders for new rigs to upgrade their drilling field,” he explained.

Salem shared that the firm’s expansion into these Gulf nations, along with its existing operations in Jordan, is based on establishing strong relationships with local operators. ADNOC Drilling has already pre-qualified with these entities and is focusing on organic growth through partnerships and joint ventures with established regional companies.

Regarding the financial impact of the investments, Salem noted that Kuwait is currently a large market with plans to expand to 200 rigs, while Oman is also growing its market to 100 rigs. “So, these two markets combined are almost three times the size of the UAE rig market, and hence, we see it as a very substantial opportunity,” he added.

Salem pointed out the ongoing shift in ADNOC Drilling’s revenue sources. “Today, if you look in general, the vast majority of our revenues come from the UAE. That is something that is evolving. For example, on the Enersol side, which is our global investment, we expect by next year to have around 7 percent of our net income to come from these global operations.”

The CFO elaborated on the company’s anticipated growth in 2025, with expectations of the onshore segment potentially crossing $2 billion, the offshore segment reaching over $1.4 billion, and oil field services surpassing $1.2 billion—an approximate 50 percent year-on-year growth.

“So, in 2025, we are expecting the onshore to potentially cross $2 billion, the offshore to cross $1.4 billion, and the oil field services to cross $1.2 billion, another almost 50 percent year-on-year growth,” Salem said.

He also revealed that the company plans to invest more than $1 billion in 2025.

“Out of that, $350 million to $550 million will be in additional rigs and oil field service equipment inside the UAE on our roadmap to reach 151 rigs by 2028,” he said.

Additionally, ADNOC Drilling is allocating $700 million to Enersol, its joint venture with Alpha Dubai, which focuses on investing in global energy technology companies, especially those involved in artificial intelligence.

Salem also highlighted the company’s recent acquisitions, noting that ADNOC Drilling completed four acquisitions worth $800 million in the previous year and plans further acquisitions totaling $700 million in 2025.

Discussing the company’s 2024 results, which reached a record revenue of $4 billion, Salem stated: “The onshore segment generated $1.9 billion of revenues from 95 land rigs, which is the largest drilling feed on the onshore side in the Middle East and North Africa. Similarly, the offshore segment generated $1.3 billion of revenue from 47 offshore rigs. Again, the largest, and then the oil field services, which is our fastest-growing segment, growing more than 100 percent year on year.” He also added that the oil field services segment generated $100 million in the fourth quarter and expects further growth in each segment in the upcoming year.

Regarding the forum’s agenda, Salem mentioned: “Tomorrow and the day after, we have two full days of investor meetings. Saudi investors obviously are a very key part of our shareholder register, but also, you have a lot of global investors who are flying into the forum to attend.”

He emphasized that the forum presents a valuable opportunity to engage with global investors.

Salem also spoke about ADNOC Drilling’s stock, saying it is the most covered in the UAE, with 18 analysts tracking it, and holds the highest number of buy recommendations in the Middle East, with 15 advisers endorsing it.

He acknowledged the increasing significance of Saudi Arabia’s financial sector, highlighting that the Kingdom hosts leading banks and noted that Tadawul is recognized for its liquidity and market activity, supported by a robust ecosystem of market makers, brokers, analysts, and investors.

“Similarly, on the Abu Dhabi exchange side in the UAE, one of the fastest growing exchanges across the trillion dollars of market capitalization between the Abu Dhabi exchange and the Dubai financial market,” Salem said, describing the event as the “biggest capital market in the world,” a collaborative gathering where regional exchanges unite.

On ADNOC Drilling’s operations in Saudi Arabia, Salem expressed the company’s deep commitment to its operations in the Kingdom. He explained that ADNOC Drilling operates multiple subsidiaries in close collaboration with Saudi Aramco, such as EV, a subsidiary from Enersol offering smart cameras for 3D visualization beneath wells. He also mentioned NTS, a manufacturing business with a significant facility in Dammam, employing over 100 people to manufacture drilling and service equipment for companies like Schlumberger, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes.

“For us, Saudi Arabia continues to be very strategic for our actual underlying operation, and we continue to find ways to build even deeper relationships,” Salem affirmed.

Regarding a potential dual listing on the Saudi Exchange, Salem shared that the company’s current focus is primarily on the Abu Dhabi Exchange, where they already enjoy significant liquidity, with over $20 million traded daily.

“We have the benefit of having a very liquid stock trading more than $20 million a day. Saudi investors are able to invest on the Abu Dhabi Exchange. We have a lot of the major Saudi sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, asset managers able to invest from here,” he said.

He added: “We do not see any technical limitation to their ability to invest, and we think we can continue to grow the Saudi investor base even more in ADNOC Drilling on the Abu Dhabi exchange.”