COVID-19’s world tour likely to continue for some time yet

As shown by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention asking that face mask mandates re-emerge in the US and by lockdowns recurring in China, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to upend politics, economics, society and behavior around the world in ways unseen for generations.

The pathogen first emerged in China and swept the globe, but it is now back in the city where it all began, Wuhan. More than 20 months have passed since COVID-19 began its journey there.

The US government and many states are now mandating the wearing of face masks, while seeking to vaccinate their workers and in some cases delaying reopening plans, as the delta variant spreads the infection through offices. Microsoft said it is delaying the full reopening of its American offices by a month and requiring proof of vaccination for all employees. American automakers are also reinstating a mask mandate for workers at all factories, offices and warehouses, regardless of vaccination status, due to supply chain issues. The Biden administration’s extension of a ban on eviction notices until October is a necessary economic move.

Other countries are facing the same predicament, with rising case numbers overloading hospitals and again shining the spotlight on the efficiency of Covax and other vaccine distribution systems. The vaccine distribution process remains politicized, which only prolongs the crisis.

Not every country is on the same pathogen trajectory, but removing protocols too early may produce potentially negative results, particularly as a result of large-scale events such as the outdoor Lollapalooza music festival in Chicago’s Grant Park. Last weekend’s four-day festival came at a time when Chicago and the surrounding areas were suffering from a spike in delta variant cases. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker decided not to attend as a result. Every county in the Chicago area except one is seeing “substantial” community transmission of COVID-19, placing nearly the entire region in the category in which fully vaccinated people have to wear a mask indoors again.

The number of infections and their impact are not in for Lollapalooza — or for the UK’s so-called “freedom day” last month — but with vaccination levels up, these two events, in a sense, represent a testing ground for spread capacity among the vaccinated/unvaccinated. Unfortunately, such events and the requirement for vaccine passports or identification are creating a black market in fake vaccine certificates. This illegal practice is dangerous and a severe threat to public safety.

Whining about masks and hot weather is extremely selfish in a global context.

Dr. Theodore Karasik

More warnings, more statistics, more anxiety and more unknowns lay ahead. Patience is key, but not everyone understands this concept until the rule of law mandates compliance. That fact means entering buildings, mass transit or other locations where crowds gather can only be guaranteed with a vaccine passport — a topic first brought up early in 2020 as a mandatory step toward getting through the pandemic.

Resistance to these necessary measures will only make the pandemic last longer. Whining about masks and hot weather is extremely selfish in a global context. Any failure to adhere to the rules in a medical emergency further destroys lives, leading to rising crime and homelessness. This phenomenon is growing rapidly.

The delta variant is bringing Chinese military medical personnel back to Wuhan, acting as a reminder of the toll from the original outbreak. Currently, Chinese authorities are moving fast and there have only been a handful of new cases in the city. They have put Wuhan into lockdown by suspending flights and trains and launching a mass COVID-19 testing program to isolate cases and prevent transmission.

Such an approach worked last time, but today is different. Wuhan and the central Chinese authorities were not prepared for a fast-moving, highly contagious variant. Most previous outbreaks failed to spread far beyond a city or province. This time, cases have been confirmed in more than 35 cities in 17 of China’s 33 provinces and regions. The outbreak in Nanjing, which originated at the city’s airport, is directly linked to the ongoing cross-border delta variant outbreak in Myanmar.

The pandemic is circling the planet and will do so again, perhaps with other variants, before hopefully fading into the history books. But how long this journey will take is not at all clear because of the continuing problems with human behavior and disease control.

• Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington, D.C. Twitter: @tkarasik