Evaluating India’s ‘accidental’ nuclear launch
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An Indian supersonic cruise missile, BrahMos, fired from the neighboring state fell into Pakistani territory near Mian Channu some 500 kilometers from Islamabad on March 9. The missile did not carry a warhead. In a casual and non-serious manner, the Indian defense ministry on March 11 described the launch as “accidental” during the course of “routine maintenance” due to “technical malfunction.” The Indian statement came after Pakistan’s military spokesman had made a comprehensive briefing on the point of origin and trajectory of the Indian missile. Although New Delhi has announced an inquiry, Pakistan has raised a number of valid questions and called for a joint probe.
The case of the firing of an Indian missile into Pakistan is a serious matter that cannot be explained superficially by India. If it was an accidental launch, why did New Delhi not inform Pakistan immediately? Moreover, subsequent comments by anonymous Indian officials carried by the Indian media reflect that it was a “deliberate” attempt to test Pakistan’s missile defense capabilities and ascertain its strategic response.
It is simply not possible for a sophisticated weapon system to be launched automatically without the explicit approval and possible clearance at a high level unless the Indian missiles are being managed by rogue elements within its military. The latter thought is based on concerns being expressed by some prominent scholars and former diplomats on the “politicization” of the Indian military under the Modi administration with excessive Hindutva zeal.
In a nuclearized region, it is foolhardy to toy with ideas of missile strikes even for testing a response. Pakistan could have reacted with a riposte, not knowing whether the incoming missile was armed or not. A launch warning scenario could be devastating for the region. The Indian action also gives credence to the view that New Delhi has moved away from its No First Use nuclear doctrine and is gearing to take on Pakistan militarily under a zealot government with possible use of nuclear weapons. There is a false sense of Indian superiority and arrogance that is being depicted in its bravado accompanied by rank incompetence, as is evident from Indian Defense Ministry statement.
With each passing day, it is becoming clear this was an intentional act warranting adjustments to Pakistan’s strategic defense posture vis-a-vis India.
Salman Bashir
Pakistan on the other hand has acted with a great sense of maturity and restraint. The initial Pakistani response pointed to the danger that the “projectile” posed to civil aviation. Pakistan did not claim shooting down the missile and stated that there were fortunately no human casualties. The Pakistan Foreign Office deplored the violation of the country’s airspace and has posed searching questions that need to be answered by India. A sort of diplomatic restraint is also being exercised here. But with each passing day it is becoming clear that this was an intentional act warranting adjustments to Pakistan’s strategic defense posture vis-a-vis India.
It is absolutely clear that India does not have the requisite maturity in handling strategic weapon systems with a sense of responsibility. This is a matter of grave concern to all South Asian states. There have been reports of nuclear materials being out for sale in Indian markets. The international community needs to take serious cognizance of the consequences of arming India with new weapon systems that add to the lethality of a poisonous and corrosive security environment for all of its neighbors. Safety and security measures apparently are nonexistent. And command and control seem to be loose and procedures and drills for ensuring against accidental launch are evidently missing.
The BJP government thrives on Hindutva ideology that has cast a long shadow on India’s credentials as a secular state. The recent state elections within India also indicate the appeal of Hindu nationalism that BJP conjures for its electoral strength. Pakistan bashing is inherent in the BJP political game plan.
Taken together with repeated show of Indian submarines in Pakistan’s territorial waters and now with the case of a pre-programmed missile strike against Pakistan, it would be naive to believe that India has benign intentions. The logical course for Pakistan is to maintain a high state of readiness. Simultaneously, it should seek to engage India diplomatically in exploring confidence building measures at strategic and conventional planes in a bid to avert a catastrophic nuclear showdown.
– Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.
Twitter: @Salman_B_PK
